I don’t have a particularly strong view on the opening race at Doncaster tomorrow, the Flying Childers at 1.45. Face the Problem was looking like a potential top sprinter until his disappointing effort at York last time. At predicted odds of around 10/1 I am going to stay with him, especially as his trainer Barry Hills traditionally does well at the St Leger meeting.
The 2.05 looks quite an open race. Chiberta King appears to have gone off the boil somewhat since winning at Newmarket in May. There could be valid excuses though as he seemed not to stay the 2 miles in the Northumberland Plate while his subsequent run at York was too bad to be true. I wouldn’t write him off just yet, especially as Jimmy Fortune has the ride on won on him on the only other occasion when they teamed up. Hanoverian Baron has served us well this season already winning twice. He did nothing wrong at Sandown last time when runner up to the useful Forte Dei Marmi in the Sunderlands Handicap. He has only gone up 1 lb since then but does tackle this trip for the first time.
Precision Break has been largely out of form this season but posted a more encouraging effort last time out at Chester when he finished 5th. He stays having won over 2 miles and he has won twice before in the month of September so does seem to come to his best at this time of year. Jedi was 3rd in that Chester race and has generally been running consistently and should be more at home on this flat galloping track rather than the tight Chester circuit. At the odds I am going for Jedi (10/1) and Precision Break (16/1).
In the Doncaster Cup at 2.40 I am going to look for some value. Askar Tau won this race last year but has not run since a poor run at Ascot in April. Ryan Moore is 2 from 4 on him. Askar Tau has never won with an “s” in the going description though so that is something to look out for. The other one I considered was Darley Sun who was runner up in this last season and subsequently won the Cesarewitch. He has not shown his form yet this season but Godolphin has an excellent strike rate at this meeting.
White Moonstone will probably win the 3.15 but I wouldn’t want to play at odds on. Musharakaat may have been beaten by the easier ground at Newmarket last time and I will put him forward as a tentative alternative.
In the 3.50 Citrus Star should give us a run for our money. He hasn’t been punished too severely by the handicapper for his win at Goodwood and he looks the one to beat. Kaptain Kirkup is owned by osteopath Kevin Kirkup who had a winner the other day with Osteopathic Remedy. Kaptain Kirkup started the season well winning at York in May but he was rather clobbered by the assessor as a result. Ryan Moore will be in the plate tomorrow which is a plus but the horse may just be a little too high in the ratings now.
After having to settle for the runners up spot in each of his last 3 outings Bonfire Knight deserves to land a decent prize and his turn may come in the 4.55.
At Chester most of the runners in the 4.45 have questions to answer. The 4 I quite like are Qanoon, Rigidity, Guest Book and Layla’s Dancer. Qanoon and Layla’s Dancer may be helped by a step up in trip for the former and first time blinkers for the latter but for my selection I am going to side with Rigidity. She was beaten a length and a quarter by Dandino back in April at level weights. Dandino is now rated 113 while Rigidity races off a mark of 86 here. If only such wizzo theories worked out in practise! Guest Book had to overcome a bad draw and a long absence from the track when a very creditable 4th a fortnight ago at Beverley and could be worth a small saver.
Today’s pictures are courtesy of the artist Sue Malkin. Follow the link to look at her web site.
Good luck and see you tomorrow evening for the St Leger preview.
ahorse 