Notebook – Next time out *** New feature ***
I am currently waiting for the following horses to reappear as all impressed me on their last run; Crack Away Jack, Lordsbridge, Pakineo Des Pictons, Merrydown, Door Boy and Snap Tie.
I was quite pleased with yesterday’s preview which pointed the way to a few winners. Tomorrow there is a mixture of flat and jumps racing.
The main flat meeting is at Newmarket where there is an early start with the first race at 11.50. In the opener I am interested in a newcomer from Michael Jarvis’ stable called Cartoon. I have a good memory for my winning bets, there aren’t that many of them! A few years ago I was on a horse called Smirk when he won a Goodwood handicap at 12/1. Smirk went on to win in listed company and is out of a mare that has produced several winners. Smirk’s half sister Cartoon could not be in better hands.
Catigo showed some signs of ability when 7th on his debut a fortnight ago. He runs in the 12.20 over 7 furlongs and his pedigree suggests that the extra distance will be in his favour.
Splashdown, a daughter of first season sire Falbrav, won nicely at Kempton on her debut in a 7 furlong maiden. Much more will be required of she is to figure in the Montrose Stakes at 2.10 but her trainer would not run her if she didn’t have some sort of chance and she could run well at a fair price.
There are 2 runners from my list to follow in the 2.45. Lang Shining has run two really good races and a fair number of rather moderate ones. He won the Newbury Spring Cup back at the start of the season and split the in form pair of Ask the Butler and Swop in a heritage handicap at Sandown at the end of August. He still only has two career wins and has not done enough to persuade me to tip him tomorrow. Duncan has only had 4 runs in his life and may well be open to improvement. I am just not sure that 10 furlongs is his ideal trip though so I think I will look elsewhere. Mutajarred and Smokey Oakey both like soft ground and should be considered if we should have plenty of rain. Jack Dawkins won a couple of nursery handicaps last season and ran well in second after a long layoff at Pontefract and he could be a bit of a dark horse here. For my selection though I am going with Kirklees, the mount of Frankie Dettori. Kirklees was a close up 3rd in the Group 3 Darley Stakes on his last start and shouldn’t be far away on that form.
There are some old favourites in the 3.20 with the likes of Zero Tolerance, Unshakable and Flipando. Of the trip Flipando looks to have the most solid credentials. Whistledownwind was only beaten a neck by Centennial and if he can recover that sort of form could be in with a shout.
Bankable should win the 3.55 but then I have been tipping him to win races for the past few months with a remarkable lack of success. In fact he has finished runner up on his last 5 runs and he started favourite in 4 of these. He has been beaten a length by Raven’s Pass and a head by Eagle Mountain so he really ought to be up to winning a listed race – shouldn’t he? Calming Influence has won twice in listed company, at Newmarket where he beat Stimulation, and Deauville. He was 6th in the Joel Stakes when Bankable was beaten by Eagle Mountain and there doesn’t seem any good reason why he should reverse the form. Don’t Panic looked set for a profitable season when landing a Doncaster handicap back in March in a race that has worked out remarkably well. However he has failed to win in Group and listed company since. Without a Prayer is certainly not without one. She surprised a few when winning a conditions race over course and distance on good to firm before putting up a fair effort in a listed race at Ascot. Bankable has to be the selection yet again though.
Fantasy Fighter was second in a mile handicap at Great Leighs a couple of weeks ago and is back there tomorrow in the 6.20. He is no great shakes but is entitled to win a little race of this nature. Young Jamie Kyne, who has the ride on Fantasy Fighter is well worth his 7 lbs claim which could be a crucial factor.
Rose Dobbin, wife of the former jockey Tony, rides Modicum in the 1.05 at Ascot tomorrow. The horse/jockey combination did consistently well last season, including a very respectable 3rd behind Tidal Bay. Given his favoured good ground Modicum has an each way chance. The Wicketkeeper is 10 lbs higher than when winning the race last season which gives him a tough task. Moon Over Miami seems a highly strung, quirky type but he has plenty of ability and he would be a danger if on song but I will stick with Modicum.
In the 1.35 Paul Nicholls has the probable favourite in recent Cheltenham winner Font. Although he has been raised 13 lbs for that win he sets the standard here and will be difficult to beat. The main dangers may be the pair at the head of the weights, Blue Bajan and The Polomoche. The Polomoche has gone up a fair bit in the weights for his recent win at Stratford but he may well have plenty of improvement in him. Blue Bajan won the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock in May and comes from a stable that has really been firing in the winners of late. Of the rest Nicky Henderson’s apparent second string Working Title and King’s Revenge are the two I like most. Font gets the selection with perhaps a small each way saver on Kings Revenge.
I don’t have a particularly strong view on the 2.05. Air Force One was a leading novice last season and I would be inclined to go with him.
In the 2.40 my selection is Mad Max. This giant of a horse was a dual bumper winner last season and his future will be over fences. He should be capable of winning over hurdles as well and hopefully tomorrow’s 2 miles trip will not be too harp for this imposing individual with a stamina laden pedigree.
In the 3.50 I fancy Riverside Theatre. He won a Kempton bumper and then ran third in a bumper at Newbury. The first and second in that race have both won over hurdles this season and Riverside Theatre looks to have a bright future. Emma Lavelle has her horses in great form and her runner, Kangaroo Court could be interesting. This former Irish point to point winner is from the family of high class chaser Buck House.
Lease End put in a promising display when 4th in a decent novice chase at Carlisle and should benefit from that experience in the Wetherby 12.40.
The 1.15 has gone to Howard Johnson runners in the last 2 seasons and the same trainer looks likely to make it a hat trick with Glencree tomorrow. This son of Presenting cost connections £230,000 and comes with something of a reputation for the Irish pointing field.
Winsley Hill is a nice horse to follow as he rarely runs a bad race. He is my each way choice in the 2.20.
You could make a case for most of the runners in the 3.00. Pettifour has only raced twice over hurdles but he won a Grade 1 novice hurdle at Aintree in April and seems to be on an upward curve. He would be my tentative suggestion to get the better of his more exposed rivals. Liberate has the ground he likes and is fit from his efforts on the flat. He could be the main danger.
The Charlie Hall Chase at 3.35 is quite tricky. Ollie Magern has won this race twice and goes well fresh. He has an obvious chance but I will go for Turko from the all conquering Paul Nicholls yard. I know it is a boring selection but I am working on the basis – if you are not sure side with the Paul Nicholls horse!
Arc Bleu ran a cracker to finish 2nd in the Cesarewitch and he could be hard to beat in the 2.00 at Down Royal. He looks well treated off a mark of 104. The main attraction at Down Royal will be the reappearance of Kauto Star in the 2.30, a race won twice in the past by Beef or Salmon.
That is about all for tonight. The next update will probably be tomorrow evening.
My thanks to the artist Jenny Lupton for allowing me to use her wonderful portrait of Beef or Salmon.