Diary: November 1 2007

seem to be doing OK on the tipping front just lately and Otantique provided me with a winner at Huntingdon today.  In an exciting handicap chase he got the better of the front running Own Line despite ploughing through the final fence.  Own Line has a surprisingly poor strike rate for a horse with obvious ability.  I remember having him on my list to follow back a few years ago when he won a race over hurdles at 6/1.  I remember it well as I failed to back him!

 

There are 2 runners from our flat list to follow tomorrow.  Dance of Light runs in the 3.10 at Lingfield.  She was 7th in the Oaks but has not really progressed  since then.  This is her AW debut and I see that none of the newspaper tipsters go for her.

 

Mofarif runs in the 3.40.  He won a maiden in Dubai but has not shown a lot in a couple

 

There are no runners from our main jumps list but I do fancy Hilly Gale in the 1.30 at Newcastle.

 

Emma Lavelle’s horses are in good form and she could be on the mark in the 1.20 at Stratford with the tough mare Blaeberry.  She likes fast ground so should have condition in her favour.

 

That is about all tonight.

 

 

Continue reading “Diary: November 1 2007”

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Irish jumpers to follow

This is the list of horses trained in Ireland that I will be following this season.  The winners are highlighted in green.

All the Cousins
Amstecos
Another Ambition
Aran Concerto
Aran leigh
Arrive Sir Clive
Beneficial Guest
Big Zeb
Black Harry
Bob’s Pride
Cellar Door
Clopf
Cooldine
De Valira
Drumconvis
Drummer First
Duty
Five Two
Freneys Well
Glencove Marina
Hide the Evidence
Iktitaf
Impudent                        
Johnnie Dillinger
Kazal
Kendor Dine
Kimberlite King
Kirbybroguelantern
Liskennet
Meadows Thyne
Mick the Man
Mother's Mistake
Nickname
Ninetieth Minute
Northern Alliance
Notre Pere
Offshore Account
Powerstation
Rock Diplomat
Salute Him
Save the Bacon
Scavenger
Schindlers Hunt
Scotsirish
Shirley Casper
Sizing Africa
Sizing Europe
Slim Pickings
Slash and Burn
Sophocles
Sublimity
Tailors Hall
Theatrical Moment
Top the harts
Townabrack
Wins Now
Zalongo

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Diary: October 31 2007

There is only one runner from the list to follow tomorrow.  Spume runs in the lady rider’s handicap at Nottingham (4.20).  The 3 year old is a difficult one to weight up. He looked one to follow based on last season efforts when trained by Sir Michael Stoute.  He ran 3 times winning the last of these over a mile at Salisbury.

 

In 4 runs for Stoute this season he didn’t really show a great deal and moved to Danny Murphy and he duly won on his first try for the new stable, a 1 mile handicap at Thirsk off a rating of 75.  Since then he has run 6 times and only beaten 14 of his 71 rivals.  He is blinkered for the first time tomorrow and has dropped to a rating of 65.  He obviously has the ability to win a race like this but something seems to have been affecting his performances recently, or perhaps he has just lost his appetite for the game.

 

There is nothing from our list to follow over the jumps at Huntingdon. Looking at the card for something to take an interest in though I was atken by Otantique, trained by Emma Lavelle.  He won at Exeter 3 weeks ago and should have ground conditions in his favour in the 3.10.

 

At Punchestown in the 1.45 Noel Meade’s Mick the Man looks the one to beat.  He was not out of the first 3 in his 6 runs in bumpers.  The other interesting runner is Scavenger, trained by Mouse Morris.  This former points and bumper winner was let down by his jumping at Gowran Park last time but may well be better than that.

 

That’s all for tonight.

 

Continue reading “Diary: October 31 2007”

October 30 2007

The only horse mentioned last night, New Guinea, won at Leicester today at 10/11.

 

There is only 1 runner from our flat list to follow tomorrow and that is Yossi in the 4.10 at Yarmouth which is the Aylsham Slurry Services handicap.  If you have been following Yossi all season you may well be in the slurry yourself as he has only won once in 9 starts, and that was at 1/4.   He has bits of form and clearly has some ability but you couldn’t really back him with any real belief.

 

See you tomorrow

 

Continue reading “October 30 2007”

Diary: October 29 2007

Well the Breeder’s Cup was a bit of a disaster all round for the European horses, and what with that and the atrocious ground it was a bit of a disappointment I felt.

 

Much more interesting for me was the national hunt action at Aintree today where we were treated to some excellent performances.  Monet’s Garden was my tip for the Old Roan Chase and he didn’t let me down. To be fair he did have most of the important factors in his favour but nonetheless, he is a thoroughly genuine and likable sort as his jockey stated after the race.  Kauto Star must have pleased Paul Nicholls.  Getting so close to Monet’s Garden giving away a stone was a notable achievement. I wouldn’t read too much into the run of Exotic Dancer.  Cheltenham is his track and anyway he has never won first time out since arriving in the UK.

 

I wondered if Degas Art might be able to surprise Katchit but in the event Alan King’s tough little horse was in no mood to be beaten.  As they jumped the last together I thought that the flat speed of Degas Art, a listed race winner on the level, would prevail, but Katchit was the more determined of the pair.  Katchit reminds me of Mysilv, another little battler of a horse who also won the Triumph Hurdle, back in 1994 I think, without looking it up.

 

Tidal Bay got his season off to a good start when easily winning the novice chase.  He was helped by the fact that his main rival Alberta’s Run made some jumping errors.

 

There is just one runner from our flat list to follow tomorrow.  New Guinea looks to have a sound chance in the 2.50 at Leicester.

 

Bye for now

 

Continue reading “Diary: October 29 2007”

Diary: October 28 2007

Saturday did not go too badly on the tipping front.

 

“Don’t Push It had a good campaign over fences last season and should be mixing it with the best this time around. He is back over hurdles here, and as long as he settles will be hard to beat.” WON 2/1

 

“Michael Muck is probably not one of Paul Nicholls stable stars but he won a couple of races last season and he stays well.” WON 11/8

 “The rapidly improving Ibn Khaldun looks the one to be on in the 3.40.” WON 11/4 

“Heaven Knows ran with promise on his last start when 4th at Ascot and a repeat of that form would see him go close.” WON 100/30

 

“I don’t have much of a view on the Breeder’s Cup, my only real fancy being Lahudoud in the Filly & Mare Turf.”WON 10/1

 

Let’s hope for a few more tomorrow!

 

Aintree stages the best card on Sunday with the highlight being the return of last season’s Gold Cup hero Kauto Star in the Old Roan Chase at 2.40.

 

Kauto Star is one of 3 runners from our list to follow, the others being last season’s Gold Cup runner up Exotic Dancer and Monet’s Garden, winner of 2 Grade 1 races last season.  There is no denying Kauto Star’s achievement last season, winning all 6 of his races, each at a different track. 

 

Although Kauto Star got the better of Exotic Dancer when they met last season, tomorrow’s event is a handicap and the Paul Nicholls runner must give weight away all round. I don’t suppose any of them will be fully would up for this race as they will all have bigger targets later in the season. They have all won at Aintree before, as has the other one to consider, the front running Ashley Brook, so course form is not really a pointer.

 

Monet’s Garden has an unblemished record first time out and the trip suits him well so he just gets my selection.

 

The card kicks off with a national hunt novice’s hurdle where the two that stand out are Crocodiles Rock and Laborec.  The former won a couple of bumpers last season and was 6th in the Championship bumper at Cheltenham. He shaped as though 20 furlongs would be ideal for him and he looks a smart prospect.  Laborec represents the Howard Johnson yard.  He won his only start in bumpers at Hexham in taking fashion.  He is said to be a nervous individual. 

The form of Tidal Bay is hard to knock as he has never been out of the first 2 in his career so far.  He gets weight from rivals who all have inferior form over hurdles for his chase debut at 1.40. Backing novice chasers at odds on is probably a tried and tested route to penury but all being well he ought to win.  The main thereat may come from Alberta’s Run a winner of 7 of his 9 races, including his chase debut at Towcester this month.

 

Triumph Hurdle winner Katchit returns to action in the 2.10.  He is a likable little horse and has won 7 of his last 8 races.  He should win this but may have something to fear from Degas Art.  He was a winner in listed class on the flat and although he has won over hurdles his jumping has not always been fluent.  Perhaps for this reason he has been best in small fields so with only 4 runners tomorrow his hurdling technique may not be so severely tested as it would be with lots of runners around him.

 

Trainer Ferdy Murphy thinks a lot of Naiad Du Misselot who showed plenty of promise last season, including a win at Wetherby on Boxing Day.  He is stepped up in trip for the 3.15 tomorrow which on pedigree looks within his compass.

 

Ferdy Murphy also trains Marshall Hall who is my fancy for the 3.50.  He won 3 times on the bounce last season; jumps and travels well in his races and may still be improving.  My main doubt would be the going as his best form has been shown with plenty of cut.

 

In the closing bumper at 4.25 I fancy Cool Operator, a winner of his only start in point to points at Curraghmore last Easter Saturday in a good time. Said to prefer good ground he is an interesting prospect.  He is by the same sire as the likes of Afsoun and Korello Bay.  Of the others Henry Daly’s Major Suspect is worth a second look as is Room at the Top who was trained by Andre Fabre in France but never ran over there.  He is with Lucinda Russell now.

 

This is a really international weekend of racing and I am trying to cover as much of it as possible.  One of the horses from our flat list to follow, Short Skirt, runs in the Group 1 fillies amd mares race at Capannelle (Rome) tomorrow.  She won well last week at Newmarket when returning after a long absence and providing she doesn’t “bounce” could add to her tally.  She is related to the Irish St Leger winner Arctic Owl by the way.

 

At Wincanton, Martha’s Kinsman should be suited by both track and trip and has an each way chance in the 3.30.

 

That will do for tonight.

 

Continue reading “Diary: October 28 2007”

Diary: October 27 2007

There is plenty of racing over the weekend, with just about something for everyone.  With so many meetings to cover I am going to concentrate on Saturday tonight.  I will be back with a preview of Sunday’s action tomorrow evening.

 

Aintree stages the best jumps card of the season so far so where better to start this evenings offering.

 

Border Tale won at Kelso last week and trainer James Moffatt has him out again in the 2.10.  You couldn’t rule him out as he has ground conditions to suit and is a course and distance winner.

 

Mossville represents our list to follow in the 2.45. She is relatively unexposed and could be on a fair mark.

 

Kirbybroguelantern comes over from Ireland to contest the Grade 2 hurdle at Chepstow (1.25)  He is a winner of 3 bumpers but lacks hurdling experience.  He is an interesting runner though.

 

We have 2 horses from our list to follow in the 1.55. Don’t Push It and Lead On.  The latter is a very nice type who has won 2 of his 4 starts, most recently at Cheltenham last April. He may well go chasing alter in the season, he certainly has the physique for it.  Don’t Push It had a good campaign over fences last season and should be mixing it with the best this time around. He is back over hurdles here, and as long as he settles will be hard to beat.

 

Michael Muck is probably not one of Paul Nicholls stable stars but he won a couple of races last season and he stays well.  One of his wins came at Chepstow and he returns there for the 2.25. The grey Rimski for the in form Twiston-Davies yard looks the danger.

 

The 2.30 at Doncaster has an intriguing look. King Orchisios won at Catterick last week and the 3rd (How’s She Cuttin’), 4th (Bo McGinty) and 5th (Strike Up the Band) all reoppose.  I thought that both How’s She Cuttin’ and Bo McGinty ran well last week as they had unfavourable draws. King Orchisios may well go in again, and Princess Ellis is a threat but I will burden How’s She Cuttin’ with my selection.  Bo McGinty will not be far away.

 

The rapidly improving Ibn Khaldun looks the one to be on in the 3.40.

 

In the 5.15 Osteopathic Remedy , who tends to race keenly, and hasn't quite been seeing out the mile recently, has plenty going for him from a handy pitch if William Carson can just get him to save a bit for the finish. The other runner from our list to follow in this race is Flores Sea who has lost form since winning early in the season.

 

 

Down at Newbury Ivy Creek represents our list to follow in the Group 3 race at 2.50. He won a couple of listed races earlier in the season but has not quite built on that success.  His last run though, when 3rd over 10 furlongs at Ayr was encouraging.  He is back up to 12 furlongs here but would need to run right up to his best form to win. 

 

Princess Valerina has been one of the least successful horses on our flat list, failing to win from 8 starts.  She runs in the 3.25. She is 25/1 in the RP and that just about sums up her chance.

 

 

Missit ran an excellent race in the Rockfel Stakes last week and if none the worse for that looks the one to beat in the 4.00.

 

Seabow, Plum Pudding and Heaven Knows represent our list in the 4.30. Heaven Knows ran with promise on his last start when 4th at Ascot and a repeat of that form would see him go close.  Seabow likes cut in the ground and has an each way chance.  Plum Pudding has shown little since winning at Newmarket in May.  He has come down the weights as a result though and claimer Jamie Moriaty takes 3 lbs off.

 

My best bet at Naas is Sizing Africa in the 3.15.

 

I don’t have much of a view on the Breeder’s Cup,  my only real fancy being Lahudoud in the Filly & Mare Turf.  For the record the following are runners from our list to follow.

 

6.55 Passage of Time;  9.50 Dylan Thomas.

  

Good luck

Continue reading “Diary: October 27 2007”