I should have stuck with the horses from my list to follow in The Oaks as Look Here, Clowance and Cape Amber were 1st, 4th and 6th respectively.
The Epsom Derby card tomorrow kicks off with a Heritage Handicap at 1.40 over 10 furlongs. Conduit is one of my fancies for this. On his last outing he was 3rd behind his stable companion Colony at Sandown when he was staying on at the finish. He has gone up 5 lbs for that but still looks potentially well handicapped although I am a bit surprised that he is being kept to a mile and a quarter as he looked at Sandown as though he would benefit from further. Sir Michael Stoute has won this race twice in the last 4 years and Conduit has to be a serious contender. The other one I like is the Montjeu colt First Avenue who is trained by Michael Jarvis. With only 3 runs in his career First Avenue is open to improvement. He was 3rd at Windsor on good to firm ground last month but being by Montjeu he is likely to be better suited with some give, which hopefully he will get at Epsom.
Another that will appreciate some juice in the ground is Lady Gloria in the 2.40. She was runner up to Royal Hunt Cup favourite Bankable last month which was no disgrace and she gets on well with her pilot Tom Queally.
The “Dash” at 3.15 will take some solving. Hogmaneigh won it last year and is only 1 lb higher in the weights. He does need some luck in running though and I don’t think I would take him to follow up. The David Nicholls pair of Tournedos and Masta Plasta both come here on the back of wins and both carry 4 lbs penalties. Of the pair I prefer Masta Plasta. He is likely to be ridden prominently by Adele Rothery. Hereford Boy is another I considered but for my selection I am going for Holbeck Ghyll who was 4th last season and comes here on the back of a decent second at Newbury. He had earlier beaten the subsequent dual winner Valery Borzov at Kempton.
And so to the Derby at 4.00, which looks one of the most open for years. Two of the best trials for the race are the Dante at York and the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. Tartan Bearer won the Dante by a head from Frozen Fire and both run in the Derby. Being a full brother to Golan Tartan Bearer should have no problem with the trip and he should also go on the ground. He has only had 3 runs in his career so is open to improvement and he has also shown a willing attitude.
Casual Conquest has only had 2 career starts winning them both. He slammed odds on favourite Washing Irvine in the Derrinstown and the manner of his victory impressed many good judges.
New Approach possibly has the best form in the race having finished 2nd in both the English and Irish Guineas. He certainly has the class but there is a doubt about his stamina and perhaps also his ability to handle the preliminaries. It is always worth considering Chester form when looking at the Derby and Tajaweed put himself in the picture when beating subsequent winner Unnefer in the Dee Stakes. He shapes as though a mile and a half should suit and he is a lively outsider.
Curtain Call didn’t run in any of the recognised trials but won a small race at Nottingham easily enough. He us bred to get a mile and a half and his trainer has won the race twice before. None of the Aiden O’Brien horses really appeal. Alessandro Volta won the Lingfield Trial on fast ground without really handling the track, while King of Rome, who was second that day is the chosen ride of Johnny Murtagh. Of the rest Kandahar Run and Rio De La Plata are not sure to stay.
My idea of the first 3 would be Casual Conquest, Tartan Bearer and Tajaaweed.
The ultra consistent Birkside runs in the 4.45. He is in stall 10 which has supplied the winner in 2 of the last 4 seasons.
Sprint king Dandy Nicholls is well represented in the 5.20 where his Joseph Henry looks worth an interest.
Rossini’s Dancer was a losing favourite at Newcastle on his last run but there appeared to be something amiss that day and we might be able to ignore the run. He has previously put up a much better effort when 2nd at Beverley and he could be worth another chance in the Musselburgh 4.35.
On Sunday there is no obvious reason for supporting Iron Cross in the Southwell 3.40 but any market move for him would be worth noting.
Pictures by kind permission of Ann Duffield Racing
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