Well, it is that time of year again when we have to try and unravel the puzzle that is the Grand National. So how do we go about finding the winner?
The race is over a distance of 4.5 miles so our winner will need stamina, or in the racing jargon, he will need to stay well.
The fences are unique and difficult so we need a horse that jumps well.
Lastly he will have to beat the other 39 runners so he will need some quality, we don’t just want a plodder. So we need a horse that stays, jumps well and has a touch of class – simples!
Horses for courses
Previous form over the National fences is a plus factor so a good starting point is to look at past runnings of the race, and also the Becher Chase which is run over the National fences (3.25 miles) in November.
Last year’s winner has retired but the 2nd (Sunnyhillboy), 3rd (Seabass), 4th (Cappa Bleu) and 6th (Ballabriggs) are all in the line up. Ballabriggs won the race in 2011 and comes here in reasonable form. He is a safe jumper and has not fallen in a race for over 5 years. He should go well but no horse has won the race twice since Red Rum and I just don’t think Ballabriggs is quite that good.
Sunnyhillboy was only beaten a nose last year but now has to carry 11 lbs more. His overall record is very good with a Cheltenham festival win on his CV as well as a 3rd place in the Irish National. He is another that has the right credentials but the extra weight could just stop him from winning.
Seabass ran a blinder last year and showed he is in good form with a 3rd at Fairyhouse on his latest run. He has more weight to carry this year and is another that I can see run well without actually winning.
Cappa Bleu carries less weight than last year and his preparation has gone well. A former Cheltenham Festival winner he was 3rd in the Welsh National last season. He looks sure to go well.
Others with form over the National fences are Oscar Time, Always Waining, Join Together, Swing Bill and Big Fella Thanks. Oscar Time was runner up in 2011 but his subsequent form has been poor and at the age of 12 his chance may have gone. Always Waining was 4th in the Becher Chase in 2011 and he has also run well in shorter races over these fences, winning the Topham Trophy 3 times. If his stamina lasts out he could go well – he certainly has an aptitude for the fences.
Join Together impressed when a fast finishing runner up in the Becher this season. Not without a chance on the evidence of that run but he does lack experience and there is a feeling that soft ground suits him best. Swing Bill was 4th in the Becher and 10th in last year’s National. He doesn’t seem good enough. Big Fella Thanks has run 3 times in the National finishing 6th, 4th and 7th. He was also 3rd in the Becher Chase this season. He has been in good from this season and should give a good account of himself again in the big race. I can’t see why he should actually win at the 4th attempt though.
Cappa Bleu, Seabass, Sunnyhill Boy and Join Together are my main fancies from this group.
The class acts
I mentioned class at the outset and here are 5 runners that come into that category. Imperial Commander is the class horse in the race having won the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2010 beating Denman. He has had his injury problems which have restricted him to just one run in the last 2 years when a good second at Cheltenham in January. He is a safe jumper but almost all his wins have come at Cheltenham and the worry is that he may not take to the Aintree fences. If he does he could be a major player.
What a Friend is a dual Grade 1 winner and was runner up in the 2009 Hennessy Gold Cup. A quality sort when he puts it all together he was pulled up in the National 2 years ago when tiring.
Quel Esprit is an interesting runner. He is a Grade 1 winner over fences and has won over 3 miles. He has a touch of class but there are doubts over his stamina. The giant Joncol is another classy Irish raider. He is a Grade 1 winner and he has never actually fallen in his career. He would prefer soft ground however.
Roberto Goldback has always raced in decent events and won at Ascot earlier in the season. He is no forlorn hope.
Best from this group Imperial Commander and Quel Esprit.
Best of the rest
Colbert Station is the mount of champion jockey AP McCoy who has won 3 times on the horse from 6 rides. Colbert Station is on an upward curve having recently won over 3 miles at Leopardstown. The downside is his lack of experience.
On His Own is another well fancied challenger. He was tipped by many to win last year after a success over 3 miles at Gowran Park but he fell at Bechers on the second circuit while going nicely. Horses have won the National after falling the year before but it is generally a negative point and given the horse’s short odds I would tend to look elsewhere.
Teaforthree has impressive credentials. He won the 4 mile race at the Cheltenham festival last year. This season he was an excellent 6th in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and followed this by taking the runners up spot in the Welsh National. He has never fallen and the only real downsides are that he tackles the National fences for the first time and he will be without his usual jockey.
Chicago Grey is another former winner of the Cheltenham 4 miler and he was 8th in the Scottish National a couple of years ago. In last year’s Grand National he was brought down by a faller at the 5th fences so it is hard to say how he would have got on. A winner on his latest start he goes on any ground and is one to consider. Rare Bob was brought down at the same fence last season. He is a grade 1 winner and has run well on his most recent starts at Fairyhouse and Naas. He was 4th in the 2009 Irish National. His best form has been on soft ground. Harry the Viking is not a forlorn hope. He was runner up to Teaforthree in the 4 miler at Cheltenham last season. He has run quite well this season in big races at Newbury and Cheltenham. Balthazar King has b een running successfully in cross country races. The drying ground will play to his strengths.
Of the remainder Quiscover Fontaine was 4th in the 2011 Irish National while Auroras Encore was runner up in the Scottish National last season.
Best from this section Teaforthree and Rare Bob.
In conclusion – Cappa Bleu, Teaforthree and Imperial Commander are my tentative suggestions. I hope you find the winner.
ahorse 