Diary; The Grand National

So what is going to win the Grand National?

Course form is always worth noting and there are 10 runners with significant form over the National fences. Don’t Push It won last year while State of Play (4^th and 3^rd) and Big Fella Thanks (6^th and 4^th) both ran well in 2009 and 2010. Character Building was 7^th last season while Comply or Die won in 2008, was runner up in 2009 and finished 12 in 2011. Hello Bud was 5^th last year and has completed the course twice in the Becher Chase, winning this season. Vic Venturi is another former Becher Chase winner while Royal Rosa has finished 3^rd and 2^nd in the last two runnings of the Becher.

Form in the other big “Nationals” the Irish, Welsh and Scottish can also be significant. Niche Market won the Irish in 2009 and in 2010 Bluesea Cracker won the race with Oscar Time runner up. Hello Bud won the 2009 Scottish National while Silver by Nature was 2^nd in the 2009 Welsh National.

Form in the other big races comes next, such as the Hennessy at Newbury, the Racing Post Chase at Kempton or races at the Cheltenham Festival. State of Play is a former Hennessy winner and Quinz won this season’s running of the Racing Post Chase. In 2009 What a Friend and Niche Market were 2^nd and 3^rd respectively in the Hennessy while in this season’s race The Tother One was 4^th and Niche Market 5^th. Big Fella Thanks was 3^rd in the Racing Post Chase in 2009.

Ballabriggs, Character Building and Chief Dan George have all won chases at the Cheltenham Festival. Becauseicouldntsee was 2nd in the 4 miler at the Festival last season.

The Irish challenge can never be ignored and 5 of the National runners lined up in the Bobbyjoe handicap at Fairyhouse in February. The Midnight Club won with Arbor Supreme 2^nd, Oscar Time 3^rd, Vic Venturi 4^th and Bluesea Cracker 6^th. Backstage is another well fancied Irish challenger. He was going well last year when brought down by a loose horse at the 20^th fence. Majestic Concorde won the valuable Irish Hennessy this season with BecauseIcouldntsee runner up.

Some horses are particularly well handicapped as they have run well since the original weights were announced. These include Quinz, What a Friend (4^th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup) and Silver by Nature winner of the Haydock National Trial for the second successive year.

We need to cross a few of these off our list. Comply or Die may well get round but is not the force of old. Character Building has the ideal jockey to suit his style of running in Nina Carberry but I still don’t think he will improve on his 7^th last season. Royal Rosa has not won since 2006 and Vic Venturi doesn’t jump well enough for my liking.

Silver By Nature is an admirable type but all his wins over fences have come on soft or heavy ground and he won’t have his ideal conditions tomorrow. What A Friend is arguably the class horse in the race but this may come a little too soon after his effort in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month. The well fancied Backstage has won his races at Ffos Las and Perth and I am not convinced he has the class for this.

That leaves us with a rather long short list of Don’t Push It, State of Play, Big Fella Thanks, Niche Market, Bluesea Cracker, Oscar Time, Hello Bud, Ballabriggs, Chief Dan George, The Midnight Club, Arbor Supreme, Quinz, The Tother One, Becauseicouldntsee, and Majestic Concorde.

I fancy Don’t Push it to run well and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished in the first 4 but he has a big weight and no horse has won back to back Nationals since Red Rum. He is too short to back each way so he has to go. I also have to reluctantly get rid of Hello Bud. He is 13 and no horse of that age has won since 1923. Quinz goes for similar reasons. He is 7 and the last 7 year old winner was in 1940. Chief Dan George is not quite good enough, The Tother One is not really a fluent enough jumper and Niche Market and Arbor Supreme were fallers last year. Majectic Concorde looks to have a little too much weight.

That leaves us with State of Play, Big Fella Thanks, Blueseas Cracker, Oscar Time, Ballabriggs, The Midnight Club and Becauseicouldntsee.

I can’t see why Big Fella Thanks should finish in front of State of Play as he has been behind him in the last two Nationals. The Midnight Club is too short a price while Becauseicouldntsee perhaps just lacks for experience.

Ballabriggs has been prepared for this race and his connections know all there is to know about Grand Nationals. State of Play stays, likes the fences, has never fallen and goes well fresh and acts on the ground. Bluesea Cracker stays well and has never fallen. Oscar Time is a good jumper, stays well and has form in big field races. These four would be my suggestions to give you a run for your money.

My thanks to the artist Sarah Clegg for the picture.