Finding the winner of the World’s greatest race us not easy but by following a few “golden rules” we can at least be in with a sporting chance.
Stamina
The race is run over four and a half miles – a real marathon for a racehorse. Our horse needs to have proven stamina. Form in the Grand National itself, or one of the other “Nationals” such as the Welsh, Irish, Scottish or Midlands versions is a good pointer. Another long distance race is the Eider Chase over 4 miles at Newcastle. I would be inclined to disregard any horse that has not won over 3 miles or further.
Age
Most winners come from the 8 – 12 age bracket.
Jumping
The National fences are unique and difficult. Previous form over the fences is a plus, either in the big race itself or something like the Becher Chase which is run in November each year.
It is also worth noting how many times a horse has fallen in the past. More than two falls on the record would be a worry.
The hustle and bustle
There are 40 runners in the race so previous form in competitive races with big fields is important. Apart from the races already mentioned races such as the Hennessy (Newbury), the Racing Post Chase (Kempton), the Bet365 Gold Cup (Sandown) or any race at the Cheltenham Festival come into this category.
The Irish challenge
Over the years the Irish have had their fair share of success and form in the big races across the Irish Sea is worth noting.
The National as a target
I always like give serious consideration to a horse that has been targeted at the race all season rather then one that comes to Aintree as an afterthought.
The going
Most horse have a preference for better ground or prefer the mud. It is worth checking that your selection will not be inconvenienced by the going.
Weight
It used to be said that you could disregard horses carrying more than 11 stone but that statistic has proved less reliable recently. Worth just keeping an eye on though.
The race is a handicap which means that the runners carry different weights depending on their past form. It is sometimes possible to spot a horse that may be leniently treated by the handicapper.
Jockey
Not absolutely crucial but it is certainly a nice to have if your horse is ridden by a leading jockey.
Next week we will have a look at the runners that meet our criteria.
Picture courtesy of the artist Katie Scorgie
ahorse 