The big day is upon us and what a difficult day it looks. Here goes!
1.30 – Stan James Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
This race really revolves around Cue Card. An impressive winner of the bumper at last year’s festival he has won 2 out of 3 over hurdles including a course and distance win. His only defeat was when going down by 4.5 lengths to Champion Hurdle fancy Menorah at level weights. He has won 4 races so far and 2 of those were at Cheltenham, one in the Champion Bumper at last year’s festival. A few days ago I was asking myself if he was value for money but at a current price of 3/1 perhaps he is! The stable are in good form.
Recession Proof is a neat hurdler who won the Totesport Trophy at Newbury. He is improving handles any ground and has a tenacious attitude. I quite fancy him to run well here although there is now a question mark against him as his regular jockey is injured and can’t take the ride.
The Nicky Henderson trained Spirit Son is unbeaten and is the choice of jockey Barry Geraghty. This one has to be respected. Of the horses available at bigger prices both Dunraven Storm and Marsh Warbler are very well thought of by their respective handlers.
For my selection I am going for Cue Card. It wouldn’t surprise me if Recession Proof ran into a place but the last minute jockey change has just put me off putting him up as my selection.
2.05 – Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Grade 1)
I had this race fairly well sorted out as a 3 runner affair between Finian’s Rainbow, Ghizao and Medermit but the late inclusion of Captain Chris has given me a bit more to think about.
Finian’s Rainbow is unbeaten when racing over 3 miles, the form of his chase wins has worked out well, he has a good record when ridden by Barry Geraghty and he will act on the ground. He also showed that he handled the track when 5th in the Neptune at the Festival last season. On the debit side his wins over fences have come in small fields – he has in fact only beaten 7 horses in total.
Medermit and Ghizao look the main dangers. Medermit will not fail through lack of determination and should be in the first 3 but there is an argument for favouring Ghizao on a line through a horse they have both met namely Captain Chris. Some feel that Ghizao prefers softer ground.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Captain Chris ran a big race. He has been the model of consistency finishing first or second in his last 8 races.
I am not too confident about this race but I I think that Finian’s Rainbow is a solid option. Captain Chris and the Irish Raider Realt Dubh look the each way value.
2.40 – Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
My short list for this race consists of Reve de Sivola, Sunnyhillboy and Great Endeavour. All 3 have solid Cheltenham Festival form. Reve de Sivola was runner up in the Neptune last year behind Peddler’s Cross while Great Endeavour beat Sunnyhillboy in the Byrne Group Plate. All 3 have also shown a liking for the track in other races. It would not surprise me if these 3 filled the first 3 places in the race and choosing between them is tough. I am going to give a slight edge to Sunnyhillboy with AP McCoy in the saddle who has a 50% strike rate when riding the horse. I would suggest a small saving bet on Reve de Sivola who may well be suited by this step up in trip which should help his jumping.
3.20 – Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)
The withdrawal of reigning champ Binocular has simplified things a little but it remains a very competitive renewal and a tricky puzzle for the punter.
Northern challenger Peddler’s Cross is a horse I have always liked. He is yet to taste defeat in any form of racing and won the Neptune at the festival last season. Perhaps the slight doubt about him here is that the trip may be just a little sharp for him and his front running style could make him a target for a fast finishing rival. Even so he might take some catching up that Cheltenham hill!
Menorah has plenty going for him and is yet to finish out of the first two. He has raced at Cheltenham 3 times and won them all including the Supreme Novices Hurdle last year. Irish Challenger Hurricane Fly is unbeaten this season and jockey Ruby Walsh has a 100% record on him. There are negatives though. He runs in England for the first time and not all horses cope well with the travelling. He is sometimes not the most fluent of hurdlers and mistakes in this company will find him out. His sire Montjeu tends to get slightly quirky individuals and he may not relish the climb to the finish against some very determined rivals. To me this looks to be between Menorah and Peddlers Cross. I like them both and simply cannot choose.
Of the rest Oscar Whisky has done nothing wrong and looks to be an improver. Thousand Stars has place claims at a bigger price.
4.00 – Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country Chase)
Irish trainer Enda Bolger has an amazing record in these cross country races and his horses are very much respected but they are set to carry big weights and I am tempted to look elsewhere this season.
Maljimar looks weighted to go well. Although he has fallen twice in his last 3 races they were both over the National fences at Aintree and can probably be ignored. The other one I like is Poker de Sivola trained by Ferdy Murphy whose horses seem to be running better now after a lengthy spell where they seemed out of sorts.
4.40 – David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
Quevega has won this for the last two years and is the selection to complete the hat trick. Sparky May looks next best while Alegralil is a horse I have always liked and could claim a place at a big price.
5.15 – Centenary Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed)
Tullamore Dew was runner up in last season’s Coral Cup here and is yet to finish out of the first 2 over fences. He has plenty of weight to carry though, a comment that also applies to northern arider Premier Sagas, a winner of his last 2 races over fences.
Lower down the weights Divers and Definity are worth considering. The latter in particular ticks most of the right boxes. He jumps well, handles the ground and Ruby Walsh rides for trainer Paul Nicholls. He also stays further which is normally a positive at Cheltenham.
These 4 form my short list. All in all I will go with Tullamore Dew and Definity as my two against the field.
Good luck!
ahorse 