30 runners are set to line up for the Scottish National at Ayr tomorrow in a race that has only gone to a horse at odds of shorter than 12/1 once in the last 9 years. The lighter weights have also tended to do well although Grey Abbey did carry 11 stone 12 to victory back in 2004. Halcon Generlardais has run well in the race in the past finishing 2nd in 2008 off a mark of 169. He runs off just 150 tomorrow so the handicapper has given him a real chance if he can recover his old form. He probably needs more cut in the ground than he is likely to get which is a negative. Another to consider at the top of the weights is Gone to Lunch. He was second last season and now runs off a mark 8 lbs lower. He was 5th in the Hennessy earlier in the season off a mark of 11 lbs higher than he will have tomorrow. He will like the ground and has the benefit of Barry Geraghty in the saddle. At the other end of the weights I would give both Merigo and Dom D’Orgeval a chance. Merigo stays well as he showed when winning the Eider Chase last season and is on a reasonable mark. He has won twice before at Ayr and although most of his form is on soft ground he has won on good. Dom D’Orgeval has rediscovered his form of late and has been placed in his last 3 starts all in good company. If he handles the ground OK he could go well.
Gone To Lunch would have to be the selection although the other 3 all have each way chances.
Elsewhere on the card at Ayr Kangaroo Court could upset the favourite in the 2.15. He will handle the conditions and didn’t run badly last time at Cheltenham. Paul Nicholls can take the 3.55 with the in form Red Harbour with AP McCoy on board. I would be inclined to have a small each way saver on Andytown in this as long as all 8 runners stand their ground.
All Middleton Dene’s career wins have come on good or good to soft ground so he should be suited by conditions tomorrow in the 5.05. He won last time out and goes well for Graham Lee. Although his jumping can be suspect this longer trip might help him in that respect. Of the others Nikos Extra is not without a chance.
The best of the flat racing comes from Newbury. Marcus Tregoning has trained the winner of the 1.30 twice in the last 8 runnings and is represented this time by Latansaa. He was a good 3rd on his only run last season which was over course and distance. Another once raced colt, Engulf looks over priced at 20/1. A little juice in the ground would probably aid his cause.
The three that make the most appeal in the 2.00 are Akmal, Manifest and Harbinger. Akmal might find the trip a bit too short so the lightly raced pair of Manifest and Harbinger would be my two against the field.
The 2.35 is a trappy looking handicap. The Roger Charlton pair of Brunston and Cityscape are interesting runners at big prices with the latter having the best chance as he is well drawn and more likely to be suited by the ground. He lacks a recent run though and it could pay to side with the Lincoln 3rd Mull of Killough.
In the 3.05 the selection is Lady of the Desert although Deirdre could go well at a bigger price. The 3.40 sees Arcano and Canford Cliffs renew their rivalry from last season. I like both these two but over this trip I fancy Canford Cliffs to come out on top. Rodrigo De Torres could just surprise a few people at a very big price.
Total Command showed enough when 2nd at Newbury last season to suggest he will be winning races sooner rather than later and the 4.15 looks an opportunity for him to get off the mark.
Fair Trade was only beaten a head in a Newmarket maiden on his only start last season and although the form of the race has not so far worked out particularly well he looks the percentage call here. Udabaa was third on his racecourse debut at Kempton and looks the type to improve. He looks the obvious danger.
Luca Cumani is always a trainer to follow in the better handicaps and his Forte Dei Marmi, who has been gelded since his last run, looks to be in with a good chance in the 5.20.
There is an evening meeting at Doncaster where Haadeth and Deacon Blues look the pair to concentrate on in the 5.40. Deacon Blues may want a little more cut in the ground so I have a narrow preference for Haadeth. In the 6.50 I quite like the chances of the course and distance winner Dangerous Midge.
At Bangor-on-Dee Cool Mission and Abbevillian clash in the 2.05. Coool Mission has created a good impression when winning his last two starts while Abbevillian has quite strong form both in bumpers and over hurdles and comes here fresh. It is difficult to split the pair but if pushed for a selection I would go with Cool Mission.
The picture of Paris Pike, former winner of the Scottish National is courtesy of the artist Jenny Lupton. The picture of the parade ring at Newbury is courtesy of the artist Lisa Miller.
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