With some improvement in the weather up and down the country we might well get some racing tomorrow, and if we do there are some competitive races that will take some solving.
There are only 4 runners in the 1.05 at Ascot but they all have a chance. Breedsbreeze is likely to go off favourite and a worthy one at that as he has yet to taste defeat over fences. The Paul Nicholls “factor” will almost certainly mean that Breedsbreeze goes off a little shorter than he should and as there is a slight concern over his ability to handle the track I am going to oppose him in search of better value. Carruthers , owned and bred by the legendary Lord Oaksey, had some solid form over hurdles and has made a fair start to his career over the larger obstacles. He has not always looked a natural over fences but providing his jumping stands up I think he will go well. He gets the selection.
The 1.40 looks a tricky handicap to solve. Dave’s Dream has won all his 3 starts, one in a bumper (where he beat Carruthers) and 2 over hurdles. Such a lightly raced type is always open to improvement and although he is a couple of pounds out of the handicap he has a useful conditional jockey nullifying that. He is very well thought of at the Henderson yard but he does lack experience and tackles a longer trip than he has faced thus far and on testing ground. One that will relish the trip is American Trilogy. Interestingly he wears first time blinkers and if they work he must be on any short list.
Whiteoak won the mare’s race at the Cheltenham Festival last season and was then runner up to Elusive Dream at Aintree. She has been off the track since then and her main aim will once again be Cheltenham so she may not be fully would up for this. She is tough and consistent though and a bold showing is likely. Mamlook was 3rd in the Cesarawitch on the flat last year and ran well here in the Ladbroke Hurdle in December when 6th. That race is over 2 miles and the additional distance tomorrow should suit although he may prefer good ground. The booking of Hadden Frost to ride is a plus. Serabad is another that could run well at a big price in what is a very open looking race. At the prices quoted in the RP I would just favour Mamlook each way with fingers crossed that he handles the ground.
Strictly on the ratings Voy Por Ustedes should have plenty in hand on his rivals in the 2.15. Very testing ground could be a problem to him though. Gwanako looks the one to give Alan King’s star the most to worry about.
The progressive Chariot Charger who is on a hat trick is my selection in the 2.45. There are others you could think about though. Captain Americo ran well when 2nd to Bakbenscher at Newbury. Although he disappointed on his next run his stable were going through a pretty lean time of it then so maybe we can forgive him that run. Former Irish point to point winner Dreamy Sweeney is another to note at a big price.
At Haydock Kasbah Bliss has very strong claims in the 1.20. Duc de Regniere represents my list to follow in this but I am hopeful rather than confident about his chance.
The 1.55 is a fascinating staying chase with some Grand National hopefuls in the field. Character Building stays all day and has some good bits of form, notably his 3rd behind Denman in last season’s Hennessey. He has Tony McCoy in the saddle and should go close. Nenuphar Collonges is another that appreciates a test of stamina although his jumping can sometimes let him down. I had Beat the Boys in my notebook as a sure fire future winner after his 3rd to Joe Lively at Cheltenham in November but he was pulled up on his next run and the stable has been struggling. Nadover was 7th in the 2008 Grand National and also ran well when 3rd in a cross Country race at Cheltenham. He is no forlorn hope in this. Coe is relatively unexposed over fences and comes here on the back of a course and distance win last month. There are plenty of others in with realistic chance s but I am going to go with Coe with Character Buildimng my next best.
Tarablaze should be suited by the step up in trip in the 2.55 and he is my selection to give Tony McCoy another winner on his way to 4,000!
There are no fewer than 6 runners from my list to follow in the 3.25. For the record they are Tazbar, The Jazz Musician, Wind Instrument, Grizebeck, Joker’s Legacy and Pistol Desbois. The one I would add to that short (or rather long) list is Heathcliff, quite an apt Valentine’s Day choice. A half brother to the high class chaser Kingsmark his long term future is over fences but in the meantime he is not making a bad job over thongs over the smaller obstacles and has won his last 3.
I was impressed with Grizebeck’s win at Ayr recently and he certainly doesn’t lack for stamina. Tazbar is a very good horse but I would worry about his ability to act on the ground. The Jazz Musician is a chaser in the making but is very well regarded by connections and I would not rule him out. He should come on for his recent return to action at Cheltenham. Joker’s Legacy might need better ground while Pistol Desbois is out of the handicap. My 3 against the field would be Grizebeck, Tazbar and The Jazz Musician.
In the 3.55 I will take a chance with Sa Suffit.
There are 9 runners in the Wincanton 2.40 and 8 of them are on my list to follow! My 1, 2, 3 would be Punjabi, Ashkazar and Songe.
Charity Lane clearly likes soft ground and looks likely to continue his winning ways in the 3.10. The very progressive Midnight Chase who has plenty of form on heavy ground is a viable alternative from the unfashionable yard of Neil Mullholland. Khachaturian is likely to make this a true test which will suit both Charity Lane and Midnight Chase.
The Paul Nicholls trained Fistral Beach is the form pick in the 4.15 and should be suited by both track and ground. He is the selection with Qulinton an interesting runner at a bigger price. The David Pipe yard has had a quiet season but there have been signs of a revival lately and Qulinton could be one to benefit.
My only selection at Gowran Park is Solwhit in the 3.40.
Today’s pictures are by kind permission of the artist Jane Dunn (see links)
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