With no weather threat this year we should get racing at all the various meeting throughout the UK and Ireland on Boxing Day, with the main attraction being Kempton Park.
In the King George at 2.40 Kauto Star (pictured below) goes for a hat trick of wins in the race.
To some he is the best bet of the season while to others he is a horse on a downward spiral. So which is the correct view? There is no doubting his class but he has only won one of his last 4 starts and a year ago that statistic would have been unthinkable. I am inclined to take him on. Voy Por Ustedes is the obvious one I suppose as he is a proven Grade 1 performer. The question is will he stay? He is into unknown territory here and 7/2 looks a short price about a horse that has stamina questions to answer, especially as there is likely to be plenty of pace on.
Imperial Commander won the Paddy Power and that form has since been franked by the runner up. However, Imperial Commander has done most of his winning at Cheltenham and I am not sure about his effectiveness around Kempton. I would also be a little worried about the form of the stable. Our Vic beat Kauto Star at Aintree at the end of last season but David Pipe’s horses have not been firing recently. Air Force One ticks most of the right boxes. He will like the ground and the track and his stable are going well. He is quite closely matched with Snoopy Loopy on their Hennessey form but the latter is a much bigger price. At Haydock when Kauto Star fell there have been debates as to whether he would have beaten Snoopy Loopy had he stood up. In any event there would not have been much in it. Kauto Star is 5/4 and Snoopy Loopy is priced at around 20/1. At those odds the consistent Snoopy Loopy looks a fair each way proposition. Air Force One at the age of 6 could be improving, while Voy Por would be a serious contender if he stays but I will stick with Snoopy Loopy as the best value.
Nicky Henderson can do no wrong at present and he saddles the favourite Punjabi in the Christmas Hurdle at 2.05. Third to Katchit in the Champion Hurdle Punjabi showed his well being when accounting for Sublimity at Wetherby last time out. He should be fitter for this race and he looks the likely winner. Harchibald (pictured below) will have his supporters as the going and track will suit him but at the age of 9, coming on 10 am inclined to go with the younger generation.
Paul Nicholls has not been capturing as many of the big prizes as looked likely at the start of the season. He saddles Pierrot Lunaire in this. A faller when beaten at Aintree in a race won by Squadron he has something to prove now. If you take one strand of his form though he is in with a cracking chance. He was only beaten 1.25 lengths over course and distance by Binocular in February and if we take that form at face value then the horse is right in there with a chance. Snap Tie beat Katchit over course and distance last time out and although Katchit has perhaps devalued that form since I still give Snap Tie a chance. He has always been held in high regard by his trainer and I would expect him to run well, especially if he gets a sound surface. Punjabi is the selection, Pierrot Lunaire and Snap Tie are respected..
The Kempton card gets under way with the 12.55; a novice hurdle with 3 runners from our list to follow. Dalmation makes his hurdles debut after three runs in bumpers where he was far from disgraced. His trainer does not run many jumpers and this horse looks over priced at 40/1. Simply Blue was a good second when well backed at Wincanton but was then a little disappointing at Newbury. The track might suit him at Kempton and he is no forlorn hope. Micheal Flips, a former winning pointer was 2nd over course and distance 44 days ago having earlier won at Stratford. He is bred to stay further than this 2 miles although he is not devoid of speed. He has the best chance of the 3.
In the 1.20 The Market Man is a likely favourite. Nicky Henderson has a good record in the race and The Market Man should go well. My selection though is Breedsbreeze who can improve for this longer trip.
Hivikos makes his chase bow in the 3.15 after a couple of runs over hurdles. Paul Nicholls clearly thinks a lot of this horse from his comments in the press and it would come as no surprise to see the 5 year old make a winning start over fences.
There are 4 runners from my list to follow in the 3.45 so I will concentrate on their chances. There can be little doubt that Butler’s Cabin will have the Grand National as his main objective and that he is running over hurdles to protect his handicap mark. He is quite well treated in this race though and with AP McCoy in the saddle is not without a chance. Lordsbridge is a frustrating horse as he needs to come from off the pace but has a habit of arriving on the scene too late. He has been expensive to follow and after tipping him a number of times I am going to leave him alone here. Dangerous I know! There were excuses for Albinus after he was pulled up on his latest start in a novice chase. This likable grey returns to hurdles tomorrow. He is 6 lbs higher than when finishing 3rd in the Imperial Cup at Sandown last season and certainly has each way claims here. Working Title fell at Ascot last time but before that had shown progressive form. With the Henderson yard in such sparkling form Working Title is my selection.
I will go through the other UK meeting in alphabetical order starting with Huntingdon. Hello Moscow has form in point to points and also ran a close second in a bumper in Ireland. He made his debut for trainer Jim Best when an encouraging 3rd at Folkestone and will be hard to keep out of the frame when lining up in the Huntingdon 12.20.
Valda’s Queen was down the field in a bumper at Cheltenham last time out but runs in a weaker mare’s only race in the Huntingdon 3.05 where she can at least run into a place.
Market Rasen stage the Lincolnshire National at 2.25. Kitski is not badly handicapped, stays well, is a course winner and has had a few runs this season to get his eye in. He will do for me.
Or D’Oudairies represents my list to follow in the 3.30. He is upped in trip which is interesting as I have always seen him as a speed horse. He needs good ground to produce his best form.
At Sedgefield River Shanakill will take some beating in the 12.15. There are a couple of runners from my list to follow in the beginner’s chase at 1.15, Auroras Encore and Master Builder. Both have potential but have not done enough to warrant a bet this time.
Moving on to Wetherby the Nicky Richards trained Jorveybrook lines up in the 12.35. He has a race in him somewhere this season but may need further and better ground.
The big race at the Yorkshire track is the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase at 1.45 where Tidal Bay will be tackling 3 miles plus for the first time in his career. He is the class act in the race but is unproven at the distance and I am a bit reluctant to take a really short price about him, particularly as he did not seem right when beaten at Sandown. State of Play and Ollie Magern are both course and distance winners and they are sure to have their supporters. State of Play certainly makes plenty of appeal and should go well. I am a big fan of Mister McGoldrick and he ran a blinder at Huntingdon behind Monet’s Garden. This trip would seem to be too far for him though and I will pass him by this time. Cloudy Lane represents the in form trainer Donald McCain. He should be about right for this and I would expect him to run a big race. If Tidal Bay gets the trip he will be hard to beat even off this big weight but at the odds I just prefer Cloudy Lane.
Later on the Wetherby card the Nicky Richards pair of Echo Point and Native Coral should give you a run for your money in the 2.15 and 2.50 respectively.
Wincanton next where Worbarrow Boy represents my list to follow in the opener at 12.40. This mare has had injury problems which have restricted her to just a couple of runs. She was 2nd in a Cheltenham bumper back in April ’07. On her comeback last month she finished 5th over hurdles at Lingfield which should go some way to putting her straight. At around 12/1 she has an each way chance.
Like Worbarrow Boy Nicto de Beauchene is trained by the Alners. He runs in the 2.55 which is a staying handicap chase. Jumping has proved a problem for this French import but he did at least get round in one piece on his latest start. He is yet to win over fences and 16/1 here probably equates to his chance.
The lightly raced Paquet Cadeau has each way claims in the 3.25 for the Elite Racing Club.
At Leopardstown Cousin Vinny will be a warm order in the 12.20. A champion bumper horse on both sides of the Irish Sea he jumped well on his first run over hurdles last month and should win this. Total Excitement is a half brother to a former champion bumper horse comes here fit from a run on the flat but he really needs a sound surface.
Former bumper winner Smoking Aces was 3rd at Naas on his hurdles debut in a race that has worked out well. He is my selection in the 12.50.
Tatenen has been impressive over fences so far and I can see the Paul Nicholls raider being hard to beat in the 2.25. Cooldine and Forpadytheplasterer look the pick of the home challenge.
That is about it for this whistle stop tour of the Boxing Day racing.
The pictures of Kauto Star and Harchibald are by Lisa Miller. The other pictures used today are by Katy Sodeau.
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