Notebook – Next time out *** New feature ***
I am currently waiting for the following horses to reappear as all impressed me on their last run; Crack Away Jack, Lordsbridge, , Door Boy, Kicks for Free, Pettifour, Blue Bajan, Island Flyer, The Polomoche, Tartak and Snap Tie.
Winners so far – Merrydown (6/4)
Pakineo Des Pictons has been removed from the list.
Diary
The stables of messrs Nicholls, King and Henderson remain in fine fettle and are dominating the jumps racing at the moment. Nicky Henderson trained the winner of the conditional jockey’s handicap hurdle today with Andytown. The horse was always travelling well and won as he pleased eased down by Felix de Giles.
The same trio of trainers look likely to play a major role in the racing tomorrow. In the 12.50 at Cheltenham Paul Nicholls is represented by R De Rien Sivola who made an encouraging start to his UK career when running out a comfortable eight length winner at Chepstow last month. He steps up in class tomorrow but can’t be discounted. My idea of the main danger is Alan King’s Saticon, a winner on the flat in France who got off the mark over hurdles at the first time of asking at Kempton.
Paul Nicholls and Alan King are again in opposition in the 1.25, with Big Fella Thanks and West End Rocker. These two are closely matched on their run behind Wichita Lineman at Chepstow and it may well come down to which one puts in the better round of jumping. Both like soft conditions but I would make a guess that Big Fella Thanks may be better suited by a real test of stamina which we may get tomorrow and he gets the selection. My selection in the 2.00 is Halcon Generlardais (pictured below)
He has been such a reliable sort over the years. Since coming to this country he has only fallen once and only finished out of the first 4 once, and that was when he was 5th in the Scottish National. Beat the Boys could be a danger. He won 4 of his 7 starts over fences last season, is a gutsy sort and stays well. At a bigger price Flintoff has an each way chance. He ran well in the Scottish and Irish Nationals last season and also in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock. Lastly, Paul Nicholls can never be ignored and his Opera Mundi must be respected as he goes particularly well fresh and enjoys soft ground.
The Paddy Power Gold Cup at 2.35 looks a very open race. Silverburn has been laid out for this valuable prize by Paul Nicholls, has been my long term fancy, and will surely get in the frame at least. He jumps very well and may have benefitted from a wind operation that he had over the summer. Whether 7/2 represents value odds is another matter altogether and you may take the view that Silverburn is a false price because of the “Nicholls factor.”
In search of better value let’s have a look at some of the other contenders. I would love to see old Mister McGoldrick prevail. He is a course and distance winner and ran really well at Aintree on his last outing but no horse over 9 has won the race in the last 16 years so the stats are against him, and also against the 10 year old Ashley Brook.
Turko has plenty to do at the weights, Ouzbeck may not get the good ground he probably needs and Don’t Push It has something to prove after disappointing last season. Three Mirrors has a poor record first time out and is best on a decent surface. Another that would not want the ground too testing is recent Ascot 2nd Stan. This one has winning form at Cheltenham and in big fields, the stable are firing and he is no forlorn hope. Maljimar is a course winner and has a good record fresh so is another that could run well at a decent price. My two each way alternatives to Silverburn though are Imperial Commander and Bible Lord. The former won twice over course and distance last season, has an excellent record first time out and seems to act on most ground. Bible Lord looks a well handicapped horse and if putting in an error free round of jumping should go close.
In the 3.10 Pride of Dulcote ticks all the right boxes and may well give Paul Nicholls yet another winner. If you want to back him don’t let me put you off but once again I am worried about the value. My short list of others to consider consists of Sullumo, The Sliotar and Diablo. Diablo was beaten at Chepstow last time out but that was over 2.5 miles and I am hoping that this return to a longer trip will enable him to recapture the sort of form that saw him win his previous race, which was at Cheltenham. Sullumo lost nothing in defeat when 2nd at Chepstow on November 5th, he is lightly raced and acts on soft ground. The Sliotar is an out and out stayer and will be going novice chasing I would imagine sooner rather than later. It is interesting that his canny trainer runs him over hurdles here.
The 3.45 looks a tricky. Keki Buku comes into the race on the back of a decent win at Wincanton and before that he was runner up to the useful Diamond Harry at Uttoxeter. The Paul Nicholls runner Hivikos could also be interesting. He should have learned plenty from his 3rd at Chepstow. Tony Martin has sent over Salute Him for this race. The 5 year old has not run since August when he travelled well for a long way when 11th in the Ebor that was re-routed to Newbury. He seems best on good ground but any market support for this Irish raider would be interesting.
Cape Tribulation is my tip for the 12.30 at Uttoxeter. Trained by Malcolm Jefferson Cape Tribulation has impressed in bumpers and on the flat and could be an exciting hurdler.
I have a personal interest in the 3.20 at Uttoxeter as Paquet Cadeaux makes his first appearance in the black and white colours of the Elite Racing Club. A winner over fences in France he couldn’t be in better hands as he is trained by Alan King. I am hopeful of a big run but a little fearful of the tough, consistent mare Overbranch. Fingers crossed!
Sue Smith saddles two in the Wetherby 2.55, Daldini and Super Road Train. Daldini has dropped down the weights which might enable him to get competitive. Super Road Train stays well and there are worse outsiders.
Mr Crystal has had a good season on the flat and returns to hurdles in the 3.25 where he has an each way chance.
My best offering at Punchestown in Trafford Lad in the 1.50.
My thanks to Kate Tann for her excellent photo of Halcon Generlardais.
Next update tomorrow evening.
ahorse 