Notebook – Next time out *** New feature ***
I am currently waiting for the following horses to reappear as all impressed me on their last run; Crack Away Jack, Lordsbridge, Pakineo Des Pictons, Merrydown, Door Boy, Kicks for Free, Pettifour, Blue Bajan and Snap Tie.
Tomorrow is the final day of the flat (turf) season with the November handicap the highlight at Doncaster. I am going to begin tonight’s preview with a look at the various jumping cards though as the national hunt season is now more or less in full swing.
The beginner’s chase at Sandown (1.20) looks to be between 3, Free World, Songe and Planet of Sound. Songe was 4th in the Triumph Hurdle last season and had earlier won twice over timber. He has already had one run over hurdles last month and now makes his chase debut. The stable are keen on him and apparently he jumps well. He is likely to start at a bigger price than his two main rivals and that will be partly because he comes from a lower profile yard. He is very much in this with a shout though.
Planet of Sound is a horse I have high hopes of. He was a consistent performer over hurdles last season winning twice and finishing runner up on 3 occasions. He looks the sort to improve over fences although he will perhaps need a longer trip in time. Good ground suits him and he is a major player tomorrow. Free World finished 4th behind Planet of Sound over hurdles at Newbury in April and he is another likely to be a better chaser. I would normally be going for Planet of Sound as he is a horse that impressed me last season but connections are so bullish about Free World that I am loathe to tip against him.
Calusa Caldera won twice over hurdles last season, both at Huntingdon. He was trained by Brendan Powell then but is now with Philip Hobbs. He looks to have the scope to make a nice chaser and makes his debut over the larger obstacles in the 2.30.
The handicap hurdle at 3.00 looks an open contest. Cornas should give us a run for our money in this race. He won at Wincanton in April beating Albinus and then ran second to a good Paul Nicholls runner at Stratford in a race that has worked out well.
Despite having dodgy legs Seymar Lad has managed to win his last 3 starts over fences. He jumped well when winning at Chepstow on his latest start and with Tony McCoy on board tomorrow in the 3.45 I am going to stick with him.
I don’t suppose that bumpers are a great betting medium and the 4.05 looks an especially tricky one with a lot of newcomers. Bensalem, winner of his only point to point in Ireland might be one to take note of.
It is becoming difficult to oppose anything that Paul Nicholls puts out but I am going to take on one of his on the 12.40 at Wincanton. Tchico Polos won on his hurdles debut at Chepstow but is giving weight away to the mare Ravello Bay who makes her hurdles debut. She is well bred, has solid form in bumpers and her trainer, Nicky Henderson, is in fine form.
There are 4 runners I like in the mare’s handicap hurdle at 1.45. How’s Business ran consistently in novice hurdles last season winning twice. Her second win came at Plumpton where she relished the step up in trip to 2 miles 5 furlongs. She clearly stays well and will one day jump a fence. Tomorrow’s trip of 2.75 miles should suit her and she looks over priced at 16/1. She was pulled up on her last start at Aintree though which is a slight concern. It’s a Discovery is another looking to put a poor recent run behind her. Trained by Donald McCain who had a winner in Rightway Star yesterday to end a bit of a barren spell, this mare is a dual bumper winner who also won at Towcester over hurdles last season. She stays well and likes soft ground. Miss Mitch was a good hurdler a couple, of years ago. She perhaps ran her best race in defeat when finishing runner up to Karello Bay in a big mares only hurdle at Newbury. Although she won once over fences she rather lost her confidence and reverts to hurdles tomorrow. These 3 all have chances but the likely winner must be Hora who was most impressive when winning at Aintree over an extended 3 miles last month. She has a lot of weight and this is a shorter trip but she is the one they all have to beat.
In the 2.20 Breedsbreeze has an obvious chance but I narrowly prefer Ring the Boss. He was perhaps not wholly convincing when he won at Cheltenham in a race where his main rival fell two out, but I am working on the basis that he will come on for that run.
Champion hurdler Katchit (pictured below) will try to give a lot of weight away to his 4 rivals in the 2.50.
Katchit will no doubt come on for his run when 2nd to Snap Tie at Kempton and he is a course and distance winner. He is giving a stone to Blythe Knight who comes from the stable that have won this for the last couple of seasons. He is certainly weighted to turn the tables on Katchit who beat him when they last met Takeroc was second to Tidal Bay over fences last season and was also runner up in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr. Chomba Womba is not out of it either. She was 3rd in the mare’s only race at the Cheltenham festival and as noted elsewhere her stable are flying. It is interesting that the each of the 4 main contenders receive 4 selections from the newspaper tipsters showing just how open this is. At the weights I would just prefer Takeroc.
The Badger Ales Trophy at 3.00 looks a cracking renewal. Butler’s Cabin is my long range fancy for the Grand National come next April and I think that will be his main target. This race might come a bit early in the season for him so I will look elsewhere. Likewise I am going to put a line through Nudge and Nurdle as he has not shown enough in his last couple of runs although I expect him to come good before the season is out. Leading Attraction has been purchased by Trevor Hemmings. He is yet to finish out of the first two in his brief career and he looks an improving sort. My two against the field in this race though are Trigger the Light and Island Flyer. Trigger the Light won both his starts last season but only ran twice as he was troubled with sore shins. Both ground and trip should suit him tomorrow with the only concern being a lack of experience. Island Flyer is unbeaten in his 3 runs over fences and has impressed with his bold jumping. If pushed to select one it would be Island Flyer.
The two to concentrate on in the 12.00 at Kelso are Merrydown and Knockara Beau. Merrydown created a favourable impression when second to Door Boy over course and distance 3 weeks ago. Knockara Beau went into a lot of notebooks last season showing a good attitude and no little ability in bumpers. He was pulled up on his hurdles debut at Aintree., where he raced too keenly and is surely capable of better.
Ferdy Murphy’s horses usually come on a bundle for their first run and I am hoping that applies to Pakineo des Pictons. He runs in the 12.30 at Kelso where he should strip fitter for a recent run and where the longer trip should also be in his favour.
In the last race on the card at Kelso my selection is General Potter whose dam is a half sister to Denman. He has had a breathing operation since his last run.
There are 11 runners from my list to follow in action at Doncaster so I will just quickly run through them.
In the 12.25 neither Burning Incense nor Kiwi Bay has an obvious chance.
In the 2.35 Skhilling Spirit won over course and distance last time out but is now 6 lbs higher. He has an each way chance while Aahayson is only 1 lb higher in the rating than when scoring over course and distance at the start of the season and could possibly pull off a surprise.
In the 3.10 Tropical Strait, First Avenue and Electrolyser all have some sort of chance. Tropical Strait won a handicap at Newbury and then ran 2nd to All the Good, who has since franked the form down under, when returning to the Berkshire course. He has since finished down the field at Doncaster but has a chance on that earlier form. First Avenue has not looked a straightforward type and after a string of expensive failures finally came good on his last start at Warwick. If that form could be reproduced he would be one for the short list but there are doubts about his temperament. Electrolyser is yet to finish out of the first two in 4 starts. He comes here on the back of a win at Leicester and being such a lightly raced horse may well have scope for improvement. He has a good chance.
There are 4 runners from my list in the 3.45, Dhaular Dhar, Mastership, Celtic Sultan and Barney McGrew. I do not particularly fancy any of them, although Dhaular Dhar deserves to win a decent prize having run well in defeat numerous times.
Today’s pictures are by kind permission of the artist Lisa Miller (see links)
Good luck.
ahorse 