There is more than enough racing to go at in the UK this weekend so I will not comment on the Breeder’s Cup over at Santa Anita – not that I know enough about the American form anyway!
Who needs Santa Anita when there is jumping action at Aintree. Rippling Ring (pictured below) brings an international flavour to the first race at the Merseyside track at 1.05. The Paul Nicholls trained 5 year old was a winner on the flat in South Africa and he made an instant impression when coming to the UK, winning at Doncaster. He then ran 5th in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham. He is open to plenty of improvement and should go well on a track that ought to play to his strengths, although a quoted price of 7/4, with 10/1 the field seems pretty skinny.
The champion trainer looks likely to have another short priced favourite in the novice chase at 1.35. Tatenen was a winner over hurdles in France before joining Nicholls and he ran 2nd to Franchoek in a Grade 1 novice hurdle at Chepstow at Christmas with some decent horses behind him. Reckoned as a likely Arkle horse Tatenen looks the one to beat here. He seems best suited by soft ground. His main rival is likely to be Howard Johnson’s recent Hexham winner Striking Article. The stable won this race with Lennon in 2006.
Graham Wylie has admitted that buying El Vaquero a couple of years ago may have been a mistake. A winner of the Scilly Isles Novice Chase at Sandown when trained by Henrietta Knight El Vaquero has had injury problems since joining Howard Johnson and is yet to win for his new trainer. He runs in the veterans chase at 2.05 along with some other old favourites. Fundementalist is another trying to recapture former glories, although he did put up one excellent performance last season when 3rd in the Racing Post Plate. Rambling Minster is a solid stayer who won the Border’s Nation at Kelso last December. Alan King’s grey D’Argent is a good jumper that stays really well. He is a bit of a Warwick specialist having won there 4 times but he ran well in the Grand National before unseating his rider 4 out. He could take some pegging back in this if he gets into a rhythm in front. Kitski, trained by Ferdy Murphy hasn’t run since April 2007 but does not look badly handicapped if he is fit enough to do himself justice. He is a thorough stayer.
Alan King also has a leading chance in the 2.40 where his Black Jacari looks likely to improve on his recent second at Market Rasen. The Barbury Castle trainer picked this one out as a horse to follow in a pre season interview.
I fancy the Paul Nicholls 4 year old American Trilogy in the 3.15. He was a smart performer on the flat in France where he won a listed race over 12 furlongs. He looks an exciting prospect and from his runs in France he clearly handles soft ground.
Buying horses that were trained on the flat by Sir Mark Prescott has paid dividends in recent seasons for the top national hunt trainers. One of the latest recruits is Hora who won a couple of times over 2 miles on the flat and has already made a promising start to his hurdle career fro Nicky Henderson. Stamina is her strength and the ext6ended 3 miles of the 4.25 tomorrow looks very much her bag of oats.
Moving on to Chepstow the opener at 1.20 looks very competitive. There are several recent winners including Diablo who won well at Cheltenham last week and looks open to plenty of improvement. Khachaturian put in a very professional display to beat Diablo’s stable companion Quail at Bangor earlier this month while Grey Mountain, Tarablaze and Winged D’Argent all come here on the back of recent successes. No Panic did some travelling last season, winning at venue’s as far apart as Newton Abbot and Cartmel while he also ran with credit at Galway and Kelso. Good ground seems to be the key to this horse so if the rain stays away he could well be interesting. Tony McCoy rides him for the first which will do his chances no harm. Junior remains a novice despite running some crackers, notably when 3rd in the Coral Cup. He gets weight from the previous winners and if fully wound up on his debut he could be a big danger. Throw in A Paul Nicholls runner Hell’s Bay and it is clear that this race will take some winning. It is worth noting that Nigel Twiston-Davies, who trains Diablo, has an impressive record in this race.
There are plenty with chances but Junior could well be the pick at the weights.
The big stables are represented in the 1.50 and this time I am going to side with a Philip Hobbs runner, Lead On. He was 2nd in this race last season but there is evidence to show that he has improved since then.
Wichita Lineman won the Brit Insurance Novice Hurdle in 2007 but rather lost his way lasts season. A campaign over fences has been mapped out for him this season and he has always looked a grand chasing type. With the stable among the winners recently he is an intriguing runner in the 2.20. He is up against the highly rated Big Fella Thanks, who is in the same ownership as Denman. A big galloping sort Big Fella Thanks clearly likes a trip and soft ground. The main danger to the big two will probably be Alan King’s West End Rocker. A former English point to point winner West End Rocker is a winner over hurdles at Chepstow and is another likely to be suited by soft ground. Big Fella Thanks looks the type to thrive over fences and he gets the selection.
Paul Nicholls saddles two in the 2.50 where I prefer Forest Pennant to Mr Pointment. He was impressive when winning a listed handicap hurdle at Aintree’s Grand National meeting last season, he stays well and has apparently pleased connections with his preparation.
In the 3.25 there are a couple of runners looking to put disappointing recent efforts behind them. The Real Deal never looked like getting into the race on his reappearance at Chepstow a fortnight ago and finished last of 11 in the race won by Emma Lavelles’s Seymar Lad. After a stuttering start he looked progressive over fences last season when winning at Haydock and Uttoxeter. I also had high hopes for Sprosser but he put in a really lacklustre effort at Bangor despite having conditions in his favour. Buck the Legend is still a maiden after 14 starts in bumpers and over hurdles but he may well be a very different proposition over fences. He gives the impression that he is an out and out stayer and he comes here on the back of a couple of very respectable efforts over hurdles so he will be race fit. The other runner to mention in this race is The Apprentice. He is trained by Victor Dartnall who rarely wastes his ammunition and looks the sort to improve for jumping fences. This looks a very open race and both Buck the Legend and The Real Deal warrant plenty of respect. I would be inclined to take a chance with Sprosser and The Apprentice at around 10/1 each though.
Having gone for some favourites in the races discussed up to now I will chance a bit of an outsider in the 4.35. De Welsh Wizzard has had injury problems but showed some promise when 4th in a Newbury bumper last season. If his problems are behind him he could be in with an each way shout.
There is some top flat racing from Doncaster where the spotlight falls mainly on two year olds. I am hoping that Greensward can build on his win at Newmarket in August in the nursery at 1.55. This colt comes from a family I have followed over the years being out of Frizzante and related to both Firenze and Zidane.
The sprint handicap at 2.25 is wide open. I am going to take a chance with Fantasy Explorer who comes to the race in fair form and has an apprentice taking 7 lbs off his back. Aegean Dancer has slipped down the weights and could run well at a big price but Fantasy Explorer is the selection.
The big race on the flat is the Racing Post Trophy at 3.35. Over the last 7 years 3 winners of this race have gone on to win the Derby the following season. My two against the field are Crowded House and Jukebox Jury. Crowded House bolted up in a maiden at Kempton and followed up with an excellent 2nd at Newmarket. Jukebox Jury won the Royal Lodge Stakes at Ascot. One that could go well at a bigger price is the unattractively named Skanky Biscuit who takes a step up in class after winning a Newbury maiden.
There are two runners from my list to follow in the 4.10. Birkside owes me nothing as he has won 3 times since I started following him. He has had a remarkably busy campaign but has kept his form pretty well and has actually been dropped 4 lbs by the assessor since his last run. Joe Fanning rides him for the first time and you couldn’t rule him out. Full Speed won a handicap at York in May but was disappointing in his next couple of runs and has been off the track since the end of July.
Kiwi Bay fairly romped home in a weak race back in June but struggled after that until a more encouraging 3rd at Wolverhampton on his latest start. He has an each way chance in the 5.15.
Newbury next and John Gosden introduces a well regarded two year old, London Bridge, in the 1.10. He is a half brother to 5 winners.
Splendorinthegrass is a sister to Etlaala and Selective and should come on for her 7th on her debut at Newbury last month. She runs in the 2.10 back at the Berkshire track tomorrow.
Ask put in a taking performance when 6th in the Arc at Longchamp and is the class act in the 2.45.
Danae has already done her bit for my list to follow having won at 16/1 at Newmarket. She was then 2nd at Leicester but has not run since the beginning of June. She has run well fresh and with underfoot conditions likely to suit she might be worth a small interest at around 8/1.
The classy hurdler Blazing Bailey is likely to start as favourite in the lady jockeys’ race at 4.30. In search of better value I am inclined to oppose the jolly with recent Newcastle runner up Harry the Hawk.
William Blake and Throne of Power represent my list to follow in the 5.05 but William Blake looks in the grip of the handicapper while Throne of Power has done nothing recently to suggest that he can win this.
Border Tale has done me a favour or two over the years, not least when winning at Huntingdon last time out. He is certainly in fine fettle at the moment but the handicapper may just have got his measure now and I prefer The Polomoche in the Stratford 3.05. I watched his racecourse debut when he just got the better of Calgary Bay in a Ludlow bumper and I have followed the progress of both animals since. In the 4.50 at Stratford Cheating Chance makes some appeal at around 10/1. He is yet to win over fences but was 2nd at Kempton last March and went on to win over hurdles.
The only runner from my list to follow in action at Wolverhampton is Peruvian Prince in the 6.15.
At Naas I fancy Smoking Aces in the 2.10. He looked a fair prospect in bumpers last season winning at Thurles before finishing second, giving weight to all his rivals, at Limerick where his rider lost his whip in the finish.
Sunday
Day 2 of the Aintree meeting on Sunday opens with a novice hurdle at 1.0. What a Buzz won at Bangor two weeks ago over 2 miles 1 furlong and the additional 3 furlongs on Sunday will suit the horse. A more likely winner though is Howard Johnson’s On Raglan Road. He won his only Irish point tp point and a bumper at Punchestown and was purchased for serious money by Graham and Andrea Wylie. On his UK debut he won a little race at Hexham by 38 lengths and may well be a serious horse. Philip Hobbs saddles Copper Bleu, a half brother to presenting Copper who won a Cork bumper before finishing 5th in the Aintree Champion Bumper. His sire is also the sire of Snap Tie. Another to consider is Knockara Beau another with very solid bumper form. He won at Kelso before finishing runner up in a strong race up at Ayr and then won at Aintree in May. Lastly, Paul Nicholls has Massasoit in this. He only had one run last season before suffering a setback and is expected to return to winning form this season.
How’s Business is yet to finish out of the first two over hurdles. She is one of only two 4 year olds in the race and no horse of that age has won the race in the last 7 years. I am sure that there are races to be won with her as the season progresses but I will keep a watching brief this time.
The 2.10 pitches two highly rated hurdlers Kicks for Free and Special Envoy against each other on their chase debuts. Kicks for Free was only beaten a short head in the Coral Cup and has always been considered a chaser. Special Envoy has been an unlucky horse, twice falling at the last with valuable handicap hurdle prizes in his grasp. This is a fascinating battle but my money would be on the Paul Nicholls horse given the form of the stable.
In the 2.40 Pierrot Lunaire is another probable winner for the Paul Nicholls team. A smart novice last season Pierrot Lunaire (pictured below) is being talked about as a Champion Hurdle contender and will eb at short odds to win this. The one to give him most to think about should be Squadron who was runner up to Crack Away Jack a couple of weeks ago.
The Old Roan Chase at 3.15 is one to savour with Monet’s Garden trying to repeat last season’s win when he made the weights difference tell against Kauto Star. This time he si getting weight from the likes of Voy Por Ustedes and Exotic Dancer. Monet’s Garden usually runs well at Aintree where he has form figures of 21114. Voy Por Ustedes is himself a course and distance winner though and was most impressive when accounting for Master Minded at the track last April. The Donald McCain pair of Cloudy Lane and Regal Heights are probably taking this race in on the way to other more realistic targets while the valiant Mister McGoldrick is not quite up to the standard of the main contenders. I feel that Voy Por Ustedes (pictued below) might have the best of the argument here despite giving away weight all round.
The well related Beggar’s Cap won a couple of novice chases last season and may have further improvement in him. Graham Lee rides him for Ferdy Murphy in the 3.50.
I wouldn’t get too heavily involved in the bumper at 4.25 but I would recommend that you take a close look at China Gold, Cloudy Times and The Portonion.
The first race at Towcester is at 12.50 where I fancy the Alan King runner Nulato. He is already a bumper winner at Towcester and he has the look of a thorough stayer who should be suited by this 3 miles on his hurdles bow. Christian Williams has the ride.
In the 3.40 course winner High Jack looks potentially well handicapped as he is 11 lbs lower in the ratings over fences compared to his hurdles mark. He is a half brother to Bible Lord.
Quail should come on for his run when 2nd to Khachaturian at Bangor and he is my selection in the Wincanton 1.15. In the 2.20 I am hoping for a big run from Cornas who is a course and distance winner.
Finally, in the 4.35 Conflictofinterest looks the one they all have to beat with Keki Buku, Quaddick Lane and Simply Blue the best of the rest.
Acknowledgements; All paintings are by Lisa Miller (see links). My thanks to Tracy Roberts for the pictures of the two Paul Nicholls horses (see Turfpix link) and to Kate Tann for the photos of Voy Por Ustedes and Towcester racecourse.
Good luck! I may try and post any late thoughts during the weekend.
ahorse 