No filly has won the Arc since 1993, although they won 5 on the trot between 1979 and 1983. Anyway, these trends are there to be broken as shown by Katchit in the Triumph Hurdle and Sir Michael Stoute in the St Leger this year. The filly Zarkarva has won all her 6 starts including 5 at Longchamps and is the most likely winner in tomorrow’s feature race . Her odds are likely to be very short though and in view of the fact that she gave away several lengths at the start of her last race, a similar problem tomorrow would be difficult to overcome, she is not value. It is always dangerous to oppose Aiden O’Brien in Group 1 races and he has Duke of Marmalade and Soldier of Fortune in the line up. Johnny Murtagh has chosen to ride Duke of Marmalade, although significant rain over in Paris would favour Soldier of Fortune.
Youmzain was 2nd last season and would be an immensely popular winner for Mick Channon but if there is value to be had it seems to be with Papal Bull. He is a quirky individual but talented and he came very close to beating Duke of Marmalade at Ascot in July.
Elsewhere on the Longchamp card I fancy Treat Gently, 3rd to Zarkova in the Prix Vermeille in the 3.00. The main threat to the Andre Fabre runner looks likely to come from the Irish pair Lush Lashes and Katiyra.
Tante Rose was a favourite filly of mine a few years ago and I have been following the fortunes of her daughter Rose Diamond this season. She has been running consistently well and takes her chance in the 1.50 at Longchamp where she has a bit of an each way chance at around 25/1.
The jumpers are in action at Huntingdon where Philip Hobbs has the likely favourite in the 2.40 in French Saulaie. This free going sort has some decent from over hurdles having finished 3rd in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham last season. Master Medic (pictured below) will appreciate the ground as long as it remains on the fast side and he looks over priced at 16/1.
Oceana Gold was 2nd to Bankable in a mile handicap on the flat last season and makes his hurdles debut in the 4.20. He is now trained by Emma Lavelle who has booked AP McCoy to ride. Stamina could be a problem I suppose but with the ground riding on the quick side Oceana Gold could take some stopping if his hurdling is up to scratch.
Argento Luna had some good form in bumpers last season and makes her hurdles bow in the 4.50. Good ground is likely to suit.
I don’t know if Max Bygraves ventured as far into the frozen North as Kelso during his singing career but Dougie Costello will be looking to get a tune out of the horse of that name in the 5.00 at the Borders track. He looks reasonably treated off a mark of 85.
Champion trainer Paul Nicholls sends a team to Uttoxeter and saddles Earth Dream in the 2.30. On breeding he should be suited by the trip.
I’msingingtheblues, who runs in the 4.10 looks to be the strongest of the Nicholls runners tomorrow. He has good hurdles from and it would be no surprise if he made a winning start to his career over fences in the 4.10.
Herecomesstanley seeks to follow up his win in the 4.40 last season and he looks the one to beat. The Kim Bailey trained Sarde, 3rd at Aintree on his last start would be an interesting runner here but he will only take his place in the line up if there is sufficient rain.
Acknowledgements: Photo of Master Medic by Tracy Roberts (Turfpix); Top picture courtesy of Jo Stockdale, bottom picture courtesy of Katy Sodeau.
Good luck and see you tomorrow.
ahorse 