My selections this week have won a few silver and bronze medals but gold has been hard to come by. Astrodome won up at Hamilton and Dar Re Mi went in at Deauville but I was relieved when Tropical Strait gave me a 10/1 winner this afternoon under a confident Seb Sanders ride. Things got even better later in the afternoon at Nottingham with Hawk Mountain winning at 3/1 by 7 lengths easing down.
One of the big betting heats tomorrow is likely to be The Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon (4.00). My parents were going to name me Wilfrid until my sister intervened so perhaps I should take a particular interest in this race!
This does look a tricky puzzle to solve with Dandy Nicholls, as always in these sprint handicaps, having a strong hand. One of his runners that comes into this race in excellent form is Valery Borzov a winner last time out at Haydock on heavy ground. He settled much better at Haydock than he has been doing lately and he is a horse with tremendous early pace. He has a middle draw which may not be ideal. Northern Dare and Joseph Henry, two other Nicholls runners both have low draws. No horse starting from a single figure draw has won in the last 7 years but being too dogmatic about draw bias is always dangerous strategy. Joseph Henry was 4th in the Haydock race won by Valery Borzov but rather spoiled his chances by hanging left, something he has a tendency to do. He has only won once since 2004. Northern Dare looks the sort to come in at a nice price in one of these tight handicaps. His best recent run was at the Curragh when he was runner up in a 22 horse handicap over 6.5 furlongs. He has won on both good to firm and heavy so ground conditions do not seem to matter to him. Even though he has not won in his last 9 starts he comes here on a career high mark of 90 which would worry me a little. Another interesting Nicholls entry is Tajneed, who was with Dermot Weld last year. One theory when looking at multiple entries from the Nicholls team is to go with the choice of jockey Adrian, son of the trainer, and this time he has plumped for Tajneed.
Knot in Wood ran a creditable race when 6th in the Stewards Cup and had won at Hamilton the time before that. In the Hamilton race Knot in Wood beat Baby Strange by a nose but his rival is weighted to reverse the form this time as he is 4 lbs better off. Dhaular Dhar has been in the form of his life this year, winning at Doncaster and coming 2nd in two valuable handicaps at Ascot. Those races were over 7 furlongs though and he drops back to 6 here. He is also on a career high mark. Fullandby has what may be a nice draw and showed he is no back number when 2nd at Ayr last time. He has won on good to firm but is probably best with some give in the ground. Conquest is not the most reliable but he certainly put his best foot forward on his last start when winning the Stewards Cup at Goodwood. He is another that seems to appreciate some juice in the ground.
It is difficult to choose between the Nicholls runners so I am going for Baby Strange who deserves to win a big race having been denied by a nose on his last two starts.
Staying with the sprinters, Newmarket stage their annual handicap exclusively for grey horses at 2.55. I am tempted to go for the top weight Zowington in this at around 12/1 but he does seem best when fresh and he last ran a couple of weeks ago. The 10 year old Certain Justice was second last year only beaten a short head. He runs off the same mark of 70 tomorrow and is in fair form having finished runner up on his last start. He usually runs well at Newmarket and he is the selection.
Earlier on the Newmarket card there is a runner from my list to follow in the 2.25. The secret to Just Two Numbers may be the ground as he doesn’t seem to want it too quick. He would have an each way chance with the ground on the soft side.
Another runner from my list to follow with a bit of a chance is Kiwi Bay in the 4.40. He was an impressive winner at Redcar in June but was rather collared by the handicapper as a result. He was a decent 4th over 7 furlongs on his last outing and the step up to a mile tomorrow may help him. He may just be on slightly too high a mark though.
At Newbury I will be interested in the performance of the Godolphin colt Suba in the 4.25. He is a half brother to the Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Dubawi.
There are a few meetings on Sunday so l will be back tomorrow evening to have a look at those.
The pictures today are by kind permission of the artist Katie Sodeau
ahorse 