I had a fair day on the tipping front yesterday with many of the horses covered in the preview finishing in the money. I was quite pleased with forecasting a potential shock in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes where I felt the soft ground would play a part. Smokey Oakey was probably findable at 20/1. Something else worth noting from Thursday’s results is that Michael Dods had a double with Osteopathic Remedy and Barney McGrew, so his runners will be worth a close look over the coming days.
This afternoon we had the progressive King of Dixie at 9/4 and Peruvian Prince was only beaten a head.
I am going to start my look at tomorrow racing with the 4.15 at Doncaster, a tricky 7 furlong handicap. I am going to assume that the ground is riding of the fast side, which will suit Giganticus, who will also like the track and is one to consider. His current mark is 2 lbs higher than he has won at before but I wouldn’t discount him.
Plum Pudding comes here in good heart but seems to reserve his best performances for Newmarket so I am going to leave him out of my calculations. Artimino is worth a second look though. He is a 4 year old but has not had much racing and it is interesting that he has been kept in training. If you look at his 4th behind Giganticus at Newmarket last season he is actually worse off at the weights and that puts me off. Skhilling Spirit is capable of winning something like this but his better form in recent times has come with some ease in the ground. Dhaular Dhar seems best with some cut as well and has shown his best form on sharp turning tracks like Chester. For my each way selection I am going to take a chance with Burning Incense from a stable in form. He was 4th on his last start, also at Doncaster and I am hoping that he gives us a run for our money. King of Dixie is also entered in this and if turning up again after his win this afternoon he would have to be respected.
Baybshambles has been one of the early season stars on my list to follow with 2 wins already at rewarding odds. He is certainly progressive and perhaps should be followed while in such good nick. He goes in the 4.50 at Doncaster.
Bankable has won his last 3 starts and there may well be plenty of improvement left in him as he is lightly raced. He looks the one to be on in the 3.35. Of the others Lady Gloria will like the ground while I thought that Whitcombe Minister ran well in the London Gold Cup at Newbury last week.
There are some nice 2 year olds in the 4.05. Richard Hannon is well represented with three runners and his Party Cat has already shown some promise when 4th of his debut. He sets the standard here and the step up to 6 furlongs will also benefit him. The newcomer Noble Jack is well thought of and is by the Prix Morny winner Elusive City. One certainly bred for speed is Hellbender who is by Exceed and Excel out of a mare that is a half sister to Feet So Fast, a good 6 furlong winner.
Up at Haydock Fat Boy looks the one they all have to beat in the 2.10 while Beacon Lodge is on something of a recovery mission after disappointing in the Greenham. He has winning form on soft ground though so further rain may help his chance.
In the Cecil Frail at 2.45 there are two runners from my list to follow. Quiet Elegance doesn’t owe me anything as this half sister to Relevance has already won at 22/1. She cut no ice in the Nell Gwyn Stakes but she is a winner on soft ground and if we get plenty of rain she could be up there. Crystany has been running well without winning and has an each way chance.
Colloquial won the 4.20 last season but is running off a mark 7 lbs higher now which will make life more difficult. The stable have been going very well though. Bollin Derek goes particularly well on soft ground so is one to look out for if we get rain. My idea of the likely winner though is Michael Bell’s Highland Legacy who may not have been entirely at home on the sharp track when 5th in the Chester Cup.
Mark Johnston has won the 4.55 for the last 2 seasons so his William Blake has to be taken seriously. I would also be interested in Tighnabruaich who may not have been suited by Chester last time. This one might be best when the ground is on the soft side.
In the Lingfield 7.40 there is a strong word for the Henry Cecil filly Samara Valley and she is my selection. In the same race I note that Winterbourne is a half sister to The Trader.
In the 8.45 Diminuto has slipped to a potentially winnable rating.
In the 7.55 at Newbury I am interested in Dan Chillingworth (pictured below) who created a very good impression when 5th at Kempton on his second and final start last season. He looks the sort to do well as a 3 year old.
Birkside has been a most progressive animal and has already recorded 11 wins. On his last run at York he was apprentice ridden and I thought he just got muscled out of it when about to launch a run. I think he does better for a stronger jockey and David Allan has got the best out of him previously. He has Neil Callan on board tomorrow in the 2.20 at York where he is a course and distance winner.
The 3.25 looks the sort of race where most of the runners have some sort of chance. Supersonic Dave stepped up on previous efforts when 2nd to Macarthur at Chester last time and is entitled to come on again for that run. Regal Flush, 4th in the St Leger last season, was a bit disappointing when well beaten on his last outing but the Godolphin team are in much better form now and an improved showing is expected. Although Tungsten Strike will like the firm ground he is better going right handed. There should be a strong pace here which ought to suit Lion Sands although he was far from impressive last time at Ascot. Regal Flush, Supersonic Dave and Lion Sands would be my 3 against the field and if pushed for a selection the form of the Godolphin horse would tend to sway me towards Regal Flush.
You have to look closely at Dandy Nicholls runners in the big sprint handicaps and I like the look of his Northern Dare in the York 3.55. The evergreen River Falcon comes here in fine form and is my other fancy.
In the 5.05 at York I will side with the relatively unexposed Bukit Tinggi a winner at Haydock 9 days ago. At a bigger price Basalt has been given a chance by the handicapper after a poor run of form.
On Sunday I would be a bit interested in Hereford Boy in the 5.10 at Bath.
The photo of Dan Chillingworth in used by kind permission of British 2YO Racing
Good luck
ahorse 