I managed to show a profit on the National yesterday with a variety of bets giving me a 50% gain. There were lessons to be learned though. The stats held up pretty well. Since 1983 only 1 horse has carried more than 11 stone to victory and that does seem to be the most important pointer. The one "trend" that put me off Comply or Die was the poor record of horses with headgear. It did occur to me that Comply or Die was likely to be ridden prominently where any limitation to the horses range of vision would be less important. Another key factor was the horse’s proven stamina, having won the Eider Chase. Once again the Irish challenge was significant.
Bewley’s Berry proved his liking for the National fences but didn’t seem to quite get home. I had doubts about Cloudy Lane’s stamina over a marathon trip and I think that is what undid him. He was nursed round to get the trip but could never get in contention. I still think he will run solid races over 3 miles to 3 and a half next season.
There were a few successes from Friday’s preview with Tidal Bay an emphatic winner at Aintree and wins for Pertemps Networks and King of Dixie on the flat. Both look as though they could follow up. Of the 4 selections for today we had 2 winners and a second so not too bad.
Only 3 weeks left of the jumps season now so we can start to really get stuck into the flat racing over the coming weeks. Jumps racing takes place at Kelso and Plumpton tomorrow though and Shrewd Investor is a runner from our list to follow in the Kelso 3.00 After winning at Newcastle he has been pulled up on his last two starts. The Whisperer looks the one to be on in this race.
For you lovers of pointless trivia I see that Tuning Fork runs in the 5.10 at Kempton tomorrow. He won on his racecourse debut for Henry Cecil back in May 2003 and was actually 2nd in the Dante Stakes that year. Since that initial win however he has run up a losing sequence of 39. He was once rated 111 but now runs off a mark of 46.
See you tomorrow.
ahorse 