Diary: March 11 2008

2.00 Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (2m 110y)

This race tends to be contested by ex horses from the flat from UK yards and more stoutly bred national hunt types for Ireland.  As to which prevails is likely to be partly down to the going, with the faster ground likely to favour those with flat speed.
Rippling Ring will be the mount of Ruby Walsh and has the right sort of profile for this race.  An ex flat winner in South Africa he won easily on his only start in this country over hurdles at Doncaster.  Although the form of that race does not amount to a lot he could be a good deal better than the bare form. Khyber Kim and Blue Bajan were both classy types on the flat but both have their quirks.  Khyber Kim bolted up on his hurdles bow at Newbury but then ran very disappointingly behind Tazbar at Doncaster.  Mick Fitzgerald has chosen to ride him ahead of the other Henderson runner though and he has to go on the shortlist. His debut win at Newbury impressed me and he beat a decent horse that day in Alan King’s Theatre Girl.  Blue Bajan was good enough on the flat to run Maraahel to a head in a Group 3 race at Chester and he won twice over hurdles before finishing down the field in the Totesport Trophy.

Although lacking the class of some of the others mentioned on the flat Pigeon Island has successfully made the transition to hurdling as his 6 wins in that sphere testify.  He is tough, genuine and experienced.  The other I like is the giant grey Pasco, a winner of a 12 furlong handicap at Saint Cloud who has won twice over hurdles at Newbury since moving to Paul Nicholls stable.  Deep Purple is another ex flat horse that comes into the equation.  Well placed by his handler Evan Williams he ran up a sequence of 5 straight wins before being upped in class when beaten into second by the Paul Nicholls trained Breedebreeze.  He is likely to benefit from decent ground.

The best of the Irish could well be Muirhead who is unbeaten in his 3 starts, one in a bumper and twice over hurdles.  He is only a small framed horse but he has done nothing wrong, handles any ground and his stable are now in good form. He is said to be a bad traveller though and has not been top the UK before which could be a concern. Another big Irish hope is last year’s champion bumper winner Cork All Star who was an unlucky runner up to Muirhead at Fairyhouse.  This one has a miler’s pedigree but never actually ran on the flat.  Cork All Star has won twice in bumpers at Cheltenham and his trainer is adept at getting a horse ready for the Festival.  Cork All Star has also shown that he can travel successfully to the UK of course but his jumping has not always looked good enough.

I will also give a mention to a couple of lively outsiders, one from either side of the Irish Sea.  Snap Tie, trained by Phillip Hobbs is a horse I have always liked.  He has good form at Cheltenham and if the ground is in his favour, he doesn’t like it soft, then he could run well.  Tranquil Sea who was 3rd in the Grade 1 Deloitte Hurdle at Leopardstown is my Irish outsider.  He seems to handle any ground.

Khyber Kim lost his race in the parade ring at Doncaster on his last outing and he does have his quirks. There are some very positive reports about his form at home though and he could well be hard to beat if producing his best.  Jockey Mick Fitzgerald is of the opinion that the horse is best with some cut in the ground and he may well get this with rain forecast. Blue Bajan is another that could well figure especially on faster ground. I am going to plump for Muirhead though.  He comes here fresh and the yard are going very well now and I feel he sets the standard.  The lightly raced Rippling Ring could well be a serious contender and I understand that the stable are very keen on him, while the Nicholls second string Pasco is an each way alternative.

The reigning champion is Sublimity but, although he has a good record at the Festival I feel that he won a relatively weak renewal last season and used his speed to beat aging rivals in a slowly run race.  This year the race will be run at a much more true pace with Osana likely to attempt to make all.  Osana and Sizing Europe have the strongest claims and both are young progressive horses and appear to represent a new era in hurdling. Sizing Europe, a really imposing individual won the Greatwood Hurdle by 4 lengths from Osana, but as he was getting 6 lbs that day they are very closely matched. Both have won well since.  Sizing Europe won the AIG at Leopradstown in most taking fashion while Osana beat Katchit by 8 lengths in the Boylesports International at Cheltenham, no mean feat against a tough course specialist.

It is very hard to separate Sizing Europe and Osana and this could be a two horse race.  Gun to head I would just go for Sizing Europe but the slick jumping Osaan, from the inform Pipe stable has real claims. I suppose you have to consider Harchibald but is he going to find anything when the chips are down? Good ground would help his chance and he could be a thinking man’s place only selection.

Katchit is a natural over hurdles and has an excellent track record that reads 11112.  He is an admirable type and will surely run a game race but 5 year olds have an abysmal record in the race and he has already been beaten by Harchibald and Osana this season.  I think he will again find one or two too good.  Blythe Knight is a classy flat horse but I can’t see Cheltenham suiting him.

Of the rest Catch Me has run well at the festival before and comes here on the back of an impressive career best win in the Red Mills Hurdle at Gowran Park.  His form is all on soft ground.  On a sounder surface the two outsiders to consider may be Ebaziyan, a winner at the festival last year and Bob’s Pride.

My short list for this is An Accordion, Ofarel D’airy, Mon Mome, Fundamentalist and L’Ami.

Fundamentalist has yet to win a chase beyond 2 miles 5 and a half but likes it here and has won two of his last three starts. He is set to carry 11 stone 2 though and the last 8 winners carried less than 11 stone.  Mon  Mome was 4th in this race last year, has a nice weight and had a recent spin over hurdles. He has solid festival form as he was runner up in the Kim Muir in 2006. Ofarel D’Airy won at Cheltenham as a novice and was only beaten at the track by a short head by Glasker Mill in November.  He has been a bit disappointing since then but if returning to his best he would be a leading contender.

I wouldn’t rule out An Accordion being a Gold Cup horse next season and his current rating of 143 could be a very lenient one.

L’Ami is a very interesting runner.  He was 4th in the Gold Cup in 2006 and has slipped down to a very lenient looking handicap mark.  He also has the benefit of Tony McCoy in the saddle. A lively outsider could well be Bob Hall. He was 2nd to L’Antartique in the Jewson last season and put in a solid effort when close up 3rd to Knowhere here back in October, only getting run out of it on the run in.  He has had a 70 day break and if he is right he could be an each way possible.

An Accordion looks the obvious choice here and he may well win but he is likely to be a skinny price.  I like the previous festival form of L’Ami, Mon Mome and Bob Hall.

The Irish are likely to dominate this race again and my main fancies are Wonderkid, Heads On the Ground and Garde Champetre.  Wonderkid would be my selection unless the ground rides on the soft side when the other two would be preferred.  Garde Champetre looks dangerously well handicapped.  The Paul Nicholls pair Royal Auclair and Le Duc are also respected.

5.20 Fred Winter Junior Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (2m 110y)

Prince Erik will have his supporters as he was 6th in the Irish Derby in 2007 and is the mount of AP McCoy.  There is also a strong word for River Liane who was a facile winner at Leopardstown a couple of weeks ago.

Anything that Gary Moore runs in this sort of race has to be respected and his Harry Tricker is one to consider. He was a winner at Plumpton on his latest start and is a good jumper. Decent ground would suit him.

I also like the look of the 3 at the top of the weights, Ashkazar, Chapoturgeon and Crack Away Jack.  Having watched Ashkazar storm clear of the field in the Imperial Cup on Saturday he has to be my selection.  As top weight he gets into the race without a penalty for Saturday’s win.