I had a pretty disastrous day on the tipping front at Epsom today so least said the better I think.
Echelon impressed me in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes which she was winning for the second year in a row. I am not convinced she really acts on the track but she is game enough and Kerrin McEvoy got the best out of her.
Unshakable won the mile handicap at 10/1. Although this was only his 5th career win he has run well over the years in decent handicaps at around this trip.
When Scorpion is good he is very good and he put his rivals to the sword in the Coronation Cup where the consistent Maraahel ran a very decent race in 3rd.
The ground at Epsom today was described as “like glue” by one jockey and that may have been a valid reason for one or two horses that ran badly today (that is my excuse anyway!)
The spotlight will again be at Epsom tomorrow.
Blue Ksar got his season off on a winning note at Lingfield three weeks ago and looks to have been found another winning opportunity in the Epsom 3.00. He has winning form on soft ground and should get the better of Blythe Knight and Welsh Emperor. Blythe Knight is a real credit to connections. The winner of last season’s Lincoln he stepped on previous efforts to win a listed race at York last time out. The ground will suit Blythe Knight. He shouldn’t be quite good enough but he doesn’t lack for resolution and cannot be ruled out. Welsh Emperor is another that will relish any give in the ground and he has previously run well in small fields. Stamina could be a problem as he tackles this trip for the first time.
The 3.30 is a competitive affair. In the last 5 years the winning odds have been 16s, 9s, 20s, 14s and 12s. Kevin Ryan trained the winner last season and saddles top weight Green Manalishi this year. He was a 5th in this last season and showed his well being by winning at Newbury on his latest start. He is a real speedball but likes fast ground so could do with the ground drying out.
Cape Royal is a dual course and distance winner and handles any ground. He runs off a mark of 93. His highest winning mark is 90. His stable companion Corridor Creeper is more consistent and deserves to get his head in front after some decent placed efforts including a 2nd to Caribbean Coral at Chester. Caribbean Coral won this in 2004 and his 2 wins at Chester also show he likes this type of track. He needs the cards to fall right for him but is quite capable on his day. Wyatt Earp has never won over the minimum trip so I will pass him over despite his recent win at York. Dandy Nicholls has to be respected in these big sprints and as usual he is well represented. Kerrin MCevoy has been booked to ride Machinist who is useful enough on his day. A former winner of the Ayr Silver Cup he is probably better at 6 furlongs on faster ground. Handsome Cross acts on the track but is another that prefers fast ground. The Nicholls runner that interests me most is old Fire up the Band. He won this in 2005 but is an 8 year old now and may not be his old self. If he does retain his ability he is quite capable of winning off his current mark. The two runners from our current list to follow are Hogmaneigh and Fantasy Explorer.
Hogmaneigh ran with plenty of promise when 3rd at York (Corridor Creeper was 2nd). He is normally held up and that tactic might prove difficult to execute in this “dash.” The key to Fantasy Explorer is probably the ground. He is best on fast ground and if the going changes he would be a live contender.
Plenty of candidates then but if pushed for a selection I would go with Green Manalishi with a saver of Fantasy Explorer if the word “soft” does not appear in the going description.
There are no fewer than 8 runners from our list to follow in the Derby. It is very hard to get away from Authorized as being by far the most likely winner.
For the record the other “listers” are as follows; Anton Chekhov, Aqaleem, Eagle Mountain, Eastern Anthem, Petara Bay, Regime and Strategic Prince.
I expect Authorized to win. Possibly by a few lengths but at around 4/6 he is not a betting proposition. There is always the possibility that something else will emerge from the pack and prove to be a star. Eagle Mountain and Strategic Prince have the best form on show apart from the favourite, while Aqaleem looked impressive enough when winning what was probably at ordinary trail at Lingfield.
My idea of the 1-2-3 is Authorized, Eagle Mountain, Lucano. The latter is lightly raced and if he stays is a possible improver.
My Arch represents our list to follow in the 5.05. He won at Ripon last time out when first time blinkers seemed to do the trick. He is suited by some ease in the ground.
In the 5.40 Pacific Pride is our list horse. He ran better than his finishing position would suggest when 7th at York behind Terentia and looks on a reasonable mark. , He would not want the ground too soft. He is a half brother to Audience.
We have 3 list runners in the Musselburgh 2.20 Blazing Heights, Bo McGinty and How’s She Cuttin’. Blazing Heights is a course and distance winner who put in an encouraging run when 3rd last time at Ayr and he likes softish ground. Bo McGinty is not the most consistent but ran well from a poor draw at Beverley last time and seems in good heart. How’s She Cuttin’ is a genuine and consisted sprint filly with a 100% record at this track from 3 visits. She gets my selection.
In the 2.50 All the Good has ticks in some of the right boxes. He has had a recent outing so should be fit, he is racing over his optimum trip, is a course and distance winner and comes from a stable in form.
In the 3.20 Gull Wing and Aureate are runners from our list. Gull Wing showed plenty of promise when 2nd on her seasonal reappearance at Leicester but then ran disappointingly on her latest start. Aureate won on the all weather at Wolverhampton in November and looked a scopey sort. He looks to have been given a chance by the handicapper off a mark of 78 and gets my selection.
ahorse 