There were some good runs from some of the horses featured in last night’s update. Both Sister Act and Harlech Castle ran races full of promise and should soon be winning, while Green Manalishi won at the first time of asking for his new trainer. I must run a feature on horses named after song titles some time.
Locksmith continued his rather unlucky spell; his last 5 form figures now read 32232. I see that River Alder won up at Ayr. He would certainly have paid his way as a horse to follow over the years. He has now won 4 times from 11 starts at odds of 8/1, 7/1, 20/1 and 16/1.
The jumps season is rapidly drawing to its conclusion but there is still some quality action left. Ayr stages the Scottish National tomorrow. The shortest priced winner in the last 6 years came in at 15/2 and last season Run for Paddy won at 33/1 so this has been a race for outsiders. Over the last 10 years 3 winners have carried 11 stone 10 or more while some at the bottom of the handicap have also succeeded so the trends are a bit hard to follow.
Ferdy Murphy has trained the winner twice in recent years and is represented by Nine De Sivola who has been runner up in both the Eider Chase and the Irish National. He stays all day and although he prefers soft ground he acts on good. Off 10 stone 1 he has an obvious chance. Run for Paddy will love the ground and is well handicapped. He could go well again. Parson’s Legacy ran on well to finish 2nd to Cloudy Lane in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham and is another that should handle the ground. Rambling Minster needs good ground and has been my long term fancy for this race. Cornish Rebel is only 2 lbs higher than when a close 2nd to Joe’s Edge in 2005. If he is on a going day he would have a good chance. Of the Nicholls runners you would have to fancy Napolitain though as he comes here a fresh horse and Ruby Walsh rides. Idle Talk and Hill of Slane represent our list to follow. Idle Talk has unseated in his last 3 runs now and Hill of Slane is some way out of the handicap. I don’t have any really strong views in the race but if pushed for a selection I would go with Parson’s Legacy.
The 2.25 has a field of 6 with 4 coming from our list to follow. This is an open race where they all have a chance. Faasel is the obvious choice on the basis of his 2nd to Aces Four at Aintree. He is not the most strong willed character though and he might be worth taking on. Natal is highly rated by Paul Nicholls who even supplemented him for the World Hurdle. He acts on the ground and should go well. Yes Sir showed signs of a return to form on his last run when 4th to Aces Four at Aintree and acts on firm ground as he showed with multiple wins in the summer. Rasharrow ran really well on his last run when 4th at Cheltenham. His jumping has tended to let him down but the better ground may help in that department. Harmony Brig has been disappointing of late and is hard to fancy in this company. Natal gets the vote.
I added Irish Wolf to my list to follow mid season thinking that he might win a handicap during the spring. He has top weight in the 4.10 which may just anchor him.
Locksmith is entered to run again in the 4.40. He deserves a win and it could be significant that Timmy Murphy has the ride.
Len Lungo saddles The Pious Prince in the bumper at 5.40. He looks a good prospect but will need to be good to defy a double penalty.
My best offering at Bangor is Mr Ed in the 4.20.
On the flat we have a list runner in the 1.40 at Newbury. Black Rock showed promise in a couple of races on the all weather last season. A mile should be his trip and I would hope for a big run from him. Of the unraced horses in this Lucano and Stand Guard are worth noting.
Green Room represents our list to follow in the 2.10. Although he has won on fast ground his best form has been with some cut so I will pass him by this time.
Our list to follow supplies 4 of the runners in the ultra competitive handicap at 2.40. The fact that John Gosden has kept Royal Oath in training at 4 may well be significant. Ground and trip look ideal. The lightly raced Macedon is an interesting runner. He is a 4 year old but has only raced 5 times and there may well be scope for improvement. Plum Pudding has registered two wins over this trip, both in good ground at Newmarket. He has the benefit of a recent run on the all weather so should be fit. Our 4th runner is Acheekyone, trained by Brian Meehan. He was runner up to Illustrious Blue over course and distance on his final start lasts season. All 4 have chances but I would just favour Royal Oath and Macedon.
Dutch Art looks to maintain his 100% record in the Greenham at 3.55. Mick Channon’s Halicarnassus likes fast ground and could be the one to trouble the favourite.
Junior has been running well over hurdles and looks nicely handicapped on the level. He is stepped up to 2 miles in the 4.25 and I will burden him with my selection.
Passion Fruit is a course and distance winner and has an each way chance in the Thirsk 3.05.
Tax Free broke course records at Leicester and Goodwood last season. He has conditions to suit in the 4.15. Advanced, placed in Group company on his last start looks the main danger.
Deserted Dane won well at Beverley last season. He likes fast ground and looks to have a sound chance in the 4.45.
Vanquisher ran 3 solid races lasts season and looks to get off the mark in the Wolverhampton.
I will be updated the site again tomorrow evening.
ahorse 