So who is going to win the National?
With the handicap more compressed these days and the going looking decent is this going to be the year when the stats that say horses carrying more than 11 stone can’t win are finally blown away?
I must admit when I look down the list of runners there is a big temptation to side with the classier types at the top of the handicap, the likes of Hedgehunter, Eurotrek, L’Ami and Monkerhostin. But you can’t teach an old dog new tricks and there is little doubt I am an old dog these days. So I am going to ignore those carrying the big weights.
I must just mention one runner before I move on. Hedgehunter is such a good jumper and loves Aintree that it would not be a massive surprise if he was in the first 4 but I can’t se him winning with that sort of weight.
It seems likely that Joe’s Edge will start favourite. He has successfully jumped round these fences twice before, he is a former Scottish National winner, his stable are in cracking form, he won last time out at the Cheltenham Festival and he will love the ground. If you want to back him don’t let me stop you. I am going to pass him by, partly because he is on the short priced side partly because he might just still be feeling the effects of that Cheltenham run. He does have a great chance though.
Idle Talk has been a long term fancy of mine and despite unseating his rider on his last two runs he is still worth a mention. I am expecting a big gamble on McKelvey on the day. This one has been especially prepared for the race. The stable had a winner today, he stays and he jumps. It is really a case of whether or not he is quite good enough.
Dun Doire is another that has been laid out for this race by his shrewd trainer and I would not be surprised to see him run a big race. Billyvoddan will love the ground and is particularly well handicapped. He wears blinkers which always worries me in a race where there are so many runners and the horse will have his field of vision restricted. He is in fine form though and ran an absolute cracker at Cheltenham when 3rd last month.
At really big prices I think that Slim Pickings and Graphic Approach are worth mentioning. Slim Pickings has some high class form at shorter distances ands Barry Geraghty has the ride. If he stays, and that is by no means certain, he could go well at a big price. Graphic Approach is the type that might just take to both the fences and the marathon trip.
For me though the selection is Point Barrow. He has ticks in all the right boxes. He jumps well, stays, acts on the ground and is a previous winner of the Irish National.
Anyway, enjoy the race and I hope you back the winner.
ahorse 