The 2007 Aintree Grand National
The Grand National is the longest race run in the UK, 4 and a half miles, and the fences still remain amongst the toughest. It makes sense, if you are having a flutter on this greatest of horse races, that your choice needs to have stamina, and he needs to be a sound jumper.
I am going to look in depth at the form of each of this season’s hopefuls but first I want to consider the races that might help us pinpoint the winner.
First of all there is the Grand National itself. Some horses take to the unique Aintree fences better than others and some horses run above their normal form on the track. Anything that has previously run well in the race is obviously worthy of consideration. The other race run at Aintree that can be a useful pointer is the Becher Chase, which is run over 3.25 miles.
The other 3 major “Nationals” are my next set of important “indicators.” Form in the Welsh (Chepstow 3 miles 5 and a half furlongs), Irish (Fairyhouse 3 miles 5 furlongs) and Scottish (Ayr 4 miles 1 furlong) can be significant.
Two of the top handicap for staying chasers in England are the Hennessy Gold Cup (Newbury 3 miles 2.5 furlongs) and the Betfred Gold Cup (Sandown 3 miles 5.5 furlongs). These races are ultra competitive and attract quality fields.
There are a couple of races run at the Cheltenham Festival that I always take note of when weighing up the Aintree puzzle. The Cheltenham Gold Cup (3 miles 2.5 furlongs) is the blue ribband event for staying chasers. It is run at level weights and any horse that has run with credit in this race has to have a touch of class. The other Festival race that can be a guide is the William Hill Trophy run over 3 miles and 110 yards.
The fences at Haydock Park have some similarities with the National obstacles. It makes sense to look at the form of the two most important Haydock handicaps chases, the Peter Marsh Chase (3 miles) and the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup (3 miles 4.5 furlongs).
Finally there are a couple of real marathon events, The Eider Chase at Newcastle (4 miles 1 furlong) and the Midlands National at Uttoxeter (4 miles 1.5 furlongs).
The contenders
Hedgehunter meets most of the criteria for a National candidate. He really likes the race for a start. He fell at the final fence in 2004 when tiring. He would have finished 4th that time I should think. He won in 2005 and then came 2nd last season. He is probably the best jumper in the field, the fall in 2004 was the only time he has hit the deck in 16 starts over fences. Stamina is clearly not a problem and he also possesses that vital touch of class as shown with his 2nd in the 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup. Add to that the fact that his jockey, Ruby Walsh, rides Aintree as well as anyone and you have plenty on the plus side.
He has had an injury problem this season but came through a prep run over hurdles at Limerick a couple of weeks ago so should be OK from the fitness point of view. The negative with him is his weight. He carries 11 stone 12 and only one horse has carried that sort of weight to victory in the last 50 years, and that was Red Rum. Don’t get me wrong. Hedgehunter is a very good horse and I would not be at all surprised to see him in the first 4 or 5, I just don’t think he can win with that weight.
Eurotrek has been plagued with injury that has reduced his chasing career to just 7 starts so far. He will have his supporters on the big day as he won the Becher Chase this season, despite making a few jumping errors. He won over 3 miles 5 furlongs at Warwick last season so seems to have the stamina needed. He is set to carry 11 stone 8 which might just make life difficult for him.
L’Ami is the chosen ride of champion jockey Tony McCoy, who has never ridden the winner of this race. L’Ami has a surprisingly poor strike rate with only 3 wins from 28 attempts over fences. He made Kauto Star work hard to beat him at Newbury in February and he has run in the last 2 Gold Cups, finishing 4th and 7th. He is normally considered best with some give in the ground but was an excellent 2nd in the Hennessy last season in good ground. He jumps well in the main and has only fallen twice in his career, the last time being December 2004.
His weight and indifferent win to runs ratio just put me off him as a likely winner.
Monkerhostin has been a consistent performer over fences. His furthest winning distance over fences is 2 miles 5 and a half furlongs, although he did win at 3 Miles over hurdles, albeit at Kempton, an easy tarck. He came back from some disappointing efforts to finish 4th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month when he was running on at the finish. He has spent much of his career racing over shorter distances and the 4.5 miles of the National might just find his stamina out, especially as he has to carry 11 stone 6.
Thisthatandtother has mixed it with the best with his finest hour to date coming with his win in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival over 2 miles 5. Therein lies the problem though as he is a shorter distance specialist.
Billyvoddan comes to Aintree in good form. He ran away with a 3 mile handicap against decent opposition at Ascot in December and then lost nothing in defeat when a close up 3rd in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He will love the ground and is certainly one to consider. The two things that put me off him slightly are slight doubts over his stamina and the fact that he wears blinkers, something I don’t like in a Grand National candidate.
Numbersixvalverde won the race last season. The ground was good to soft then and it may be that the horse is at his best with give in the ground. He won the Irish National in 2005 in soft ground. He has proven stamina and has been lightly campaigned so far this season with another crack at the Aintree spectacular the obvious target. He looks likely to ger round and is a danger. However he has more weight to carry this yaer and he is unlikely to have his favoured ground.
Idle Talk was going to be my tip for the big race. He won at Exeter over 3 miles 1.5 furlongs in his novice season and put in a career best effort later that season when 2nd in the Royal and Sunalliance chase at the Festival. He was 4th in the Scottish National at the end of the season. This season he ran a cracker when just beaten by My Will over 3 miles 2.5 furlongs in a Cheltenham handicap and may have been feeling the effects of that hard race when 6th in the Hennessy. He has unseated his rider in both his last two starts. He made a complete horlicks of the 9th in the Cotswold Chase unshipping Richard Johnson and then was unlucky in the Gold Cup when his jockey was knocked out of the saddled when bumped by another horse. Some will take the view that he didn’t quite stay in the Scottish Natioanl and his failure to complete in his last two races is another concern. In the main though he jumps well.
Royal Auclair seems to have been around for ever but is actually only 10. He has some excellent form on his CV but may not be the force he was. His biggest career win was in the Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton in 2004 (3 miles 1.5 furlongs) He has put up some mighty efforts in defeat though, notably when carrying 11 stone 10 when runner up to Hedgehunter in the 2005 National. He was 4th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup that season and had been a short head second to Puntal in the Betfred Gold Cup in 2004. He fell at the first last season at Aintree and generally his performances have been below par lately. His best recent run was when 3rd to Kauto Star (L’Ami 2nd) in the AON chase at Newbury over 3 miles where he ran well for a long time in ground that wouldn’t have suited him. On his last start he was 6th in the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham Festival (3 miles 7 furlongs). He is well handicapped on his best form and acts on the ground. He may run into a place but the stable have not been firing so far this week.
Cloudy Bays has won 6 times over fences with his best win coming over 3 miles in a valuable Leopardstown handicap in January 2004. Looked the likely winner of the Kerry National (3 miles) at Listowel in 2003 when hitting the 2nd last and unshipping his rider. He was a faller over hurdles at Cheltenham on his last start. Most of his wins have come on soft or heavy ground.
Knowhere represents trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies who has a good record in the National. Knowhere has won twice over fences, at Perth and Bangor, both over 2.5 miles. He ran a cracker to finish 2nd in the hot handicap at Cheltenham on December over 2 miles 5 furlongs but his efforts at 3 miles have so far been a bitv disappointing and there must be some doubts over his ability to get the National trip.
Kelami is trained in France but has put up some decent efforts in his raids across La Manche, notably when 3rd, beaten only 2 lengths in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup, 3rd in the Betfred Gold Cup in 2005 and when winning the William Hill Trophy at the 2005 Cheltenham Festival. Seems to handle any ground and showed his well being when 2nd at Auteil last month. He was brought down in the 2004 National when only a 6 year old.
Point Barrow is a serious contender having won the Irish National last season on good ground. He comes into the race in good form having won the valuable Pierse Handicap at Leopardstown in January carrying 11 stone 10.
Celtic Son represents the powerful Martin Pipe stable. Celtic Son got his chasing career off to a spectacular success by winning the Rising Stars Novice Chase at Wincanton in November 2005 in spectacular style. He has not reproduced that form in 6 subsequent efforts though and I would imagine there must be doubts over his stamina over a marathon trip.
Simon is an interesting contender. He is only an 8 year old but he has won 5 times over fences. He has won decent 3 mile handicaps at Southwell and Kempton this term both in soft ground. The indications are that he stays well as he ran a blinder when 2nd at Sandown in early December over 3 miles 5.5 furlongs, again on soft ground. He was perhaps a little disappointing in the Welsh National where he finished 6th. I am not sure he is quite good enough to win.
Ballycassidy has only won once in his last 17 starts which sound pretty damning but he has a better chance than the bare facts suggest. He ran well in last years’’ National and was clear of the field when falling at Valentines on the second circuit. He is best on good or good to firm and may well get those sort of conditions on the day. If he gets into a rhythm he might well give you an exciting run for your money.
Clan Royal deserves to win a Grand National but there must be a fear that his chance may have gone now that he is in the twilight of his career. He was 2nd in 2004, in the lead then unluckily carried out in 2005 and 3rd in 2006. He has also twice won other races over the National fences, including the Becher Chase in 2003. His recent form is not encouraging as he was a first fence faller in the Becher Chase and he was then pulled up in a race at Ascot. You can’t completely rule him out given his track record but it may be significant that his pilot in the last 3 Nationals, Tony McCoy has chosen to ride L’Ami this year.
Gallant Approach has won twice over fences, both at Newbury, the first over 3 miles. He put in a solid performance when 3rd, beaten less than a length by Kandjar D’Allier at Haydock in December. On his last run he was 7th in the William Hill Trophy behind Joe’s Edge. He has only raced 6 times over fences.
Livingstonebramble has never won beyond 2.5 miles. He ran well in second at Gowran Park over 3 miles in January though and will appreciate decent ground.
Dun Doire is a major player and has been specially prepared for the race. He won 7 times last season and was 7th to Point Barrow in the Irish National. A slight worry would be that he fell in the Becher Chase.
Kandjar D’Allier will be easy to spot if you have backed him as he is a grey. He won over 3 miles back in December at Haydock in very testing condition. He returned to the Lancashire track for the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup but could only finish 11th of 16.
Slim Pickings has not been in good form this season but was still in contention when falling at the last over 3 miles at Gowran Park in January. He won a listed race at Cork last April and ran well in 5th at Cheltenham on his last start over 2 miles 5. There must be big doubts over his stamina but if he does get the trip he could be a dangerous outsider.
Zabenz has only won once since arriving in the UK from New Zealand. He was 9th in last season’s Scottish National. He has some good form as a novice though. He stays well and will act on the ground. He has possibilities as an each way bet.
Bewley’s Berry is a horse I have always liked. He is an exuberant jumper who showed he can handle the National fences when 2nd to Eurotrek in the Becher Chase in November. He has always looked a stayer so it was somewhat surprising that he faded out of contention to finish 9th in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock. The ground will not be a problem for him.
Longshanks has quite a good record over the National fences. He has twice contested the Topham Trophy, run over 2 miles 5.5 furlongs, finishing 2nd and 4th. He has won over 3 miles twice, albeit in small fields, and was 6th in the Scottish National last season. He has won on good ground and also handles soft. He has never fallen.
Bothar Na was 4th in the foxhunters which sir in over the National fences (2 miles 5 furlongs) in 2006. He was also 4th in the Cheltenham Foxhunters and that is run over an extended 3 and a quarter miles.
Graphic Approach has won twice over 3 miles, at Southwell and Sandown. He was 3rd to Billyvoddan at Ascot in December. He is one of my fancies to run well at a big price.
Homer Wells is an improving sort who won the BobbyJoe chase at Fairyhouse (3 miles 1 furlong) in December with Point Barrow 3rd and Numbersixvalverde 4th. All his career wins have come in soft or heavy ground which is the point against him.
Liberthine will have her supporters on the basis oh her victory in the Topham Trophy at Aintree last season. She has never won beyond 2 miles 5 furlongs though.
Silver Birch had his best season in 2004/5 when trained by Paul Nicholls. He won the Becher Chase and followed up by taking the Welsh National. Not surprisingly he was made favourite for the Grand National that season but injury prevented him from taking part. He had rather mixed fortunes after that and was a faller in last season’s National. Recent form has been a bit more encouraging though and on his latest start he ran 2nd in the cross country race at the Cheltenham Festival.
Philson Run is an out and out stayer. His CV includes wins in the Midlands Grand National and the Eider Chase so his stamina is proven. He was a faller on the only occasion he has attempted the Aintree fences, in the Becher Chase of 2005. He was 6th in the Scottish National on ground that was probably too lively and 8th on the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup where a bad blunder cost him his chance. He would probably need softer ground.
Puntal seems a moody customer and can spit the dummy out on occasions. He is capable enough on his day though as he showed when winning the Betfred Gold Cup in 2004 beating Royal Auclair by a short head. He hasn’t actually won since then but was 6th in last season’s Grand National. He stays, acts on good ground and if he puts his best foot forward could well challenge for a place at any rate.
The Outlier won the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock in January in very heavy ground. He has since been pulled up in both the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup and the Midlands National. Rain would help his chance.
Tikram is not short on quality but he is basically a two and a half miler and would seem to lack the stamina to win a National. The ground will suit him though.
McElvey seems to handle any ground from heavy to good to firm. He won the Summer National at Uttoxeter in July over an extended 4 miles so clearly stays. He was 6th in the Becher Chase in November so he has negotiated the fences before. He was stating on at the finish too so the extra distance on Saturday should be OK. He warmed up for the big race by winning over hurdles at Bangor last month. He has clearly been aimed specifically at the National and there are worse outsiders.
Naunton Brook does not have a stamina problem as he won over 4 miles at Hexham back in November. He has since won at Exeter with both successes gained in soft ground. He likes to race prominently.
Jack High won the Betfred in 2005 in good ground. 4th to Point Barrow at Leopardstown in January. He unseated his rider last season in the Aintree National. Apart from the win at Sandown all his other successes have come in soft ground.
Sonevafushi won a hunter chase at Wincanton in February. He stays and jumps but may just not be good enough.
Joe’s Edge will probably start favourite. He won the Scottish National in 2005 and ran a stormer to take the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham on his last start. He has twice jumped round the big Aintree fences, when 7th in the National last season and the in the Becher Chase this term. He loves good ground and has a great chance.
Le Duc has run over the National fences times with his best effort finishing runner up in the Becher Chase. He unseated his rider in last season’s National. On his most recent start he was 4th in the cross country race at the Cheltenham Festival.
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