Tomorrow’s Aintree card kicks off at 2.00 with the Grade 2 novice chase. There are plenty of contenders here in what looks an open contest. Yes Sir won 7 on the bounce in the summer but has struggled to recapture that form during the season proper. Faster ground will be more up his street but I would still worry about recent efforts.
Ungaro has won 3 times this season but could not maintain his winning streak when 6th at Cheltenham. He jumps well and will handle the ground but there is a suspicion that he is better going right handed. Standin’ Obligation has put in a couple of dismal efforts in his last 2 runs. We might be able to ignore these though as they were both of soft ground. He goes well fresh and has been given a break so he has to go on the short list.
I was impressed with Aces Four at Cheltenham when he was about the only one to make a race of it against Denman. He will like the ground, should act on the track and his stable are going well. Dom D’Orgeval was a classy hurdler and won his first two starts over fences in small races. He never got into the race at Cheltenham won by Denman. He has done most of his winning in soft ground which might be a bit of a concern. He impressed with his jumping earlier in the season.
Killaghey Castle won his first start over fences beating the classy subsequent winner Briareus. He was injured in his next race but has since come back to win a small “egg and spoon”race. He is hard to assess as he lacks the experience of some of his rivals. Could be very good.
Of the rest Turko looks to put a disappointing Cheltenham run behind him. It is possible that this flatter track will suit him better. Jaunty Times is better with cut in the ground; Faasel is not one to rely on. Boychuk stays well and will acts on the ground but might lack finishing speed to actually win this.
Aces Four gets the selection.
It is hard to get away from Wichita Lineman in the 2.35. He has won his last 3 starts and seems to handle any ground. Silverburn will appreciate the step up to 3 miles but may find the ground a bit too lively for him.
It seems likely that Cerium, Fota Island and Newmill will be non runners in the 3.10. Hi Cloy won the race last year but has not been in the same form this time around. I would be reluctant to rule him out however. Monet’s Garden won on his only previous visit to Aintree. I am not sure what to say about this one as this season he has flopped badly twice but sandwiched in between those efforts was a decent win over 2 miles 3 at Ascot. Taranis won the Ryanair Chase which is probably a good guide for this race. He is consistent and handles the ground.
Well Chief looked a bit of a cert for the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham but tipped up at the 2nd fence. He is the class act in the field with the only really doubt being the trip, as he has never run over this distance before. I would imagine he would be OK, particularly on this track on good ground.
I would have to say that Well Chief is the likely winner. Taranis has had quite a hard season but could take advantage if Well Chief fails. Monet’s Garden would have to be at his absolute best. If he is then he might just be able to run the finish out of Well Chief. Well Chief has to be the selection.
The 3.45 is run over the Grand National fences. I don’t have any strong views on this one. Paul Nicholls seems keen on the chances of Le Volfoni so he is one to consider. Brooklyn Breeze last ran over fences when an excellent 4th in the Robin Cook Memorial Chase at Cheltenham back in December 2005. He is a horse I have always liked and he has won twice before at Aintree although not over the big fences. Briery Fox comes into the reckoning on the basis of his 3rd to Rambling Minster over 3 miles at Sandown in February. He stays well and will like the ground.
My last suggestion for the short list would be On The Net. The Irish have a good recent record in this race and On The Net has some decent form on his CV.
The 4.20 looks difficult to solve. Ouninpohja has plenty of ability but has his own ideas on the game and does not always seem to give of his best. He has only been out of the first 2 twice in the last 16 runs (and he was 3rd in those). He has to be respected on that sort of form. Tyson is interesting on the basis of his flat form where he was a winner in both South Africa and Dubai. He has the speed that should serve him well on this track and ground. De Soto is another that will appreciate the ground but I just wonder if he would be better on a stiffer track. A former winner on the flat in France, Enforcer has just run the once over hurdles, winning a race named after former Man U footballer Noel Cantwell at Huntingdon.
Tyson and De Soto are respected but my selection is Ouninpohja. You could also risk a little each way wager on Enforce.
In the 4.55 I would be inclined to look closely at those in the higher weight range. Tamarinbleu and Reveillez are two to consider. Of the rest Undeniable was an impressive winner at Wetherby last time out.
I really don’t have any view on the mare’s bumper at 5.30.
Good luck.
ahorse 