The big betting heat tomorrow is of course the Totesport Trophy at Newbury (3.15). Tarlac is the only runner from our list to follow that is rather due a winner after three placed horses this week.
The ex German flat horse comes from the stable that has won 4 of the last 8 runnings of this competitive handicap. His form this season looks solid, he has a good racing weight and Tony McCoy rides. I will burden him with my selection. Caracciola was on my short list but the ground conditions have gone against him. One that will appreciate the testing ground is the Irish trained Quatre Heures. He travels well in his races and looks the type for this. If you want a big outsider you could try Heathcote. He is trained by Gary Moore who is a bit of a specialist in handicap hurdles. He won on the 13 February last season if you subscribe to that sort of theory.
Denman puts his Cheltenham credentials on the line on the opener at 1.35. The favourite for the Royal and Sunalliance chase will need to be on his metal though as Mr Pointment and Sandin’ Obligation have strong claims themselves. Mr Pointment looks a bright prospect but may just have stamina doubts at this trip. Standin’ Obligation disappointed last time out and may prefer better ground. Denman would have to be the selection but at 1/2 I wouldn’t put my money on it.
If the 1.35 is a race to watch rather than take a financial interest in the same can probably be said of the 2.40. Kauto Star clearly should win and probably will. He isn’t going to be given a really hard race just 4 weeks from the Gold Cup though and does not look like a betting proposition. If anything is going to worry him it will be L’Ami, especially in the testing conditions.
The Game Spirit Chase at 3.50 is a real mouth watering prospect. Well Chief returns to the track after a 22 month absence. He would have to be at his best to take this but who is to say that the Pipe team haven’t got him back to full fitness. Ashley Brook certainly proved his fitness winning convincingly over hurdles recently while Voy Por Ustedes rarely runs a bad race. I have a feeling that this could be decided on jumping. It could be run at a fair old lick and one mistake might be enough to lose the race. Forman and Sporazene are not completely out of it but I am going to narrowly favour Ashley Brook.
The 2.20 at Leopardstown features 3 runners from our list to follow – the entire field bar the favourite in fact! That favourite, Aran Concerto will take all the beating however. This could well turn out to be a tactical affair though and I don’t think that the favourite represents value. I will go for Catch Me who has done little wrong over hurdles, with his only defeat coming at the hands of the highly rated De Valira.
In the 2.55 the unpronounceable O’Muircheartaigh has an each way chance. Vic Venturi is the other runner from our list.
The big race on the card is the 4.00 which sees local hero Beef or Salmon take on the English raider The Listener. At the age of 11 there could be question marks over Beef or Salmon’s ability to beat his younger rival. He has hardly looked a spent force this season though and with his optimum conditions and “home advantage” I will give him the slight edge.
If Warwick goes ahead my nap there would be Paul Nicholls promising novice chaser Opera Mundi in the 2.20. He jumps well and has the stamina to cope with the likely testing ground.
My best bet of the day on Sunday is Hairy Molly in the 2.35 where both track and going should suit.
The meetings at Hereford and Exeter are in doubt. If they do get the all clear the runners from our list to follow are as follows.
Exeter 2.00 Lenny the Blade
4.00 Glasker Mill & Mr Quasimodo
4.30 French Saulaie
Hereford 2.20 Annie’s Answer
Have a good weekend
ahorse 