It was a miserable afternoon for most of the runners from the list to follow one or two running real stinkers and only Arrive Sir Clive managing to get his head in front.
One race that I was looking forward to today was the handicap chase at Newbury named after the great Mandarin. In the event it didn’t disappoint and we were treated to a close finish. The bold jumping ex Irish pointer Irish Raptor attempted to make just about all but was collared by Tango Royal after a blunder 2 out. The grey, who had been switched off at the back by the peerless Tony McCoy nearly ran out of gas up the run in as the brave Irish Raptor came back at him to get within half a length with the rest well in arrears.
This was Tango Royal’s first win since July 2005 when he landed one of the big summer handicaps at Market Rasen beating Impek. You can’t miss Tango Royal during a race as he is almost white and sports red blinkers.
Mandarin incidentally was twice a winner of the King George and won the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 1962.
Despite all the rain we have had recently the going at Ascot will probably not be too testing tomorrow and that should suit Henry Daly’s Nocivo. This ex bumper winner was considered a promising type until injury put him out of action. He returns after a 401 day absence in the 12.40.
Witness Run, who won an Irish point to point in 2005 is another that will like the ground. He carries top weight in the 2.20. He was second here earlier this month and the extra 2 furlongs he will need to travel tomorrow shouldn’t trouble him.
The handicap chase at 3.00 looks particularly trappy. Character Building has been raised 9 lbs by the handicapper without even running! This is because a horse that he had run against previously has won since. Anyway I think that Character Building is a nice horse and he can go well. Jaunty Times just gets by tentative vote. He was second at Ludlow last time out and will be suited by the ground.
French Saulaie represents our beleaguered list to follow (list to avoid?) in the Haydock 12.35. Although only 5th at Cheltenham last time this looks a weaker race and the soft ground should suit.
I see that Flintoff runs in the 1.05. He has been second on his runs so far this season – now there must be a parallel somewhere!
The 1.35 at Haydock was won last season by Florida Dream carrying 11 stone 11. I considered 3 at the top of the weights for this. Chickapeakray is not over big and may not be suited to carrying big weights. Both Clemax and Calvic handle heavy ground and they are my two against the field. The two met at Ayr in April when Calvic, giving away 16 lbs won by 10 lengths. Given the huge pull in the weights today Calvic is the selection.
Good Citizen, like Calvic, is trained by Tom George. A winner 18 days ago at Sedgefield in heavy ground, he seeks to follow up in the 2.05. He has gone up 8 lbs for that win but clearly revels in the mud and is going the right way.
There is a small but quality field for the 3.10. Crozan seemed to lose his way last season but came back to form when a short head second to Tamarinbleu at Ascot. If he can maintain that form he will be hard to beat. Royal Rosa will appreciate the ground. He has been hard to keep right but if he still retains all his ability despite injury problems he would be bang in there with a shout. Royal Emperor has not shown much recently but can’t be written off. He carries 6 lbs less than when 3rd in last seasons Scottish National and he has won twice at Haydock and likes the ground. Interesting 5 of his 7 career wins have come in fields of 8 or less.
Limerick Boy does not lack for ability but his jumping has tended to let him down. Tight one this but I will go with Royal Rosa.
Skipper’s Brig is well thought of by connections and is my selection for the 3.40. He has already shown that he goes well on heavy ground and is my best bet of the day.
Up at Musselburgh I give Celtic Carisma an each way chance in the 12.25 as long as the ground rides good.
Formerly trained on the flat by Mick Channon Ahmedy did well on his hurdles debut finishing 2nd at Catterick. He jumped well that day, likes good ground and should run well in the 12.55.
Three ex flat horses look set to dominate the betting in the 2.25, Leslingtaylor, Let’s Roll and Crocodile Dundee. This is a bit of a guessing game. Leslingtaylor has a penalty and I just wonder if Let’s Roll might want a stiffer track so I will take a chance that Crocodile Dundee is ready first time out. Crocodile Dundee won a Group 3 in Copenhagen in 2004 so I hope he can bring home the bacon tomorrow!
Locksmith has been one of thje more disappointing horses on my list to follow. He has left the Pipe stable and I see that his new trainer has him running over hurdles in the 3.25. Spotlight in the Racing Post says that he is “best watched” at present and I would not disagree with that assessment.
My big hope on Sunday is Wyldello for the in form Alan King yard in the 2.35 at Warwick. She is a half sister to the high class hurdler Morello who was trained by Mary Reveley. Wydello has not been out of the first 2 in her 4 runs in bumpers and looks to have the scope to make a serious impact over hurdles.
In the 3.05 I fancy the two top weights, Florida Dream and Flash Cummins. The former is a full brother to the great Florida Dream and did well for me last season when I had him on my list to follow. Flash Cummins is unexposed over fences and this step up to an extended 3 miles could see him improve further.
Our only list horse at Punchestown is Ballytrim in the 12.40 but he is another best watched at present I feel.
Star of Wonder to Cold Turkey
How did your Christmas go? Well, the cat had the last of the turkey this morning but there are still a few beers left so I can celebrate any winners I get tomorrow.
As we near the end of 2006 now seems a good time to look at the exploits of my jumps list to follow. At first glance things look OK, apart from Kauto Star with 3 Grade 3 wins of the bounce list horses have captured a number of the top prizes, the Hennessey, the Welsh National, The Fighting Fifth, the Greatwood Hurdle, The Rehearsal Chase etc. The winners of those races were some of the more obvious horses though that would be on most lists to follow and many of the darker choices on my list have either disappointed or not run at all.
We lost Missed That to a fatal injury and numerous others seem to be out of action with injury problems, Trabolgan, Star de Mohaison, Money Trix, The Market Man and One Sniff being just some I can mention.
I am hoping that some of those that have not appeared yet will make up for lost time in the New Year. One such is Cold Turkey, who is trained by Gary Moore near Brighton. Cold Turkey has been a splendid servant to connections with 15 wins to his credit. 14 of those were on the flat and I was rather hoping that his trainer would map out a campaign in handicap hurdles for him.
Anyway back to the successes of the list. Kauto Star has the most wins, with 4 while 3 horses have won at odds of 10/1 or bigger, Ungaro (14/1), Cerium (12/1) and State of Play (10/1).
Happy New Year!
ahorse 