There is a real air of anticipation about the King George this season. Is Kauto Star really as good as some pundits are saying? Timeform know a thing or two when it come to ratings and they have him down as the 6th highest rated chaser of all time – or at least since they started rating horses. The 5 above him include Arkle, Mill House and Desert Orchid – illustrious company indeed.
But will he win on Boxing Day? The answer is of course he will! If this were a handicap Timeform reckon Kauto Star would be giving 18 lbs to his nearest rival.
If only horse racing were that simple! It seems to me that there are only 2 ways in which Kauto Star can lose. Either he falls, and he has done before; or either Racing Demon or Monet’s Garden have improved beyond their known form.
Common sense tells me that Kauto Star will probably win – the track will suit him and Timeform know their business. His price is too short though and I think you have to look for value elsewhere. Exotic Dancer could hardly be in better form but just has too many possible negatives against his name. He is coming from handicaps and that does not usually work in this race. He does not have a good record going right handed and there is just a small question mark about his stamina.
Racing Demon is a possible. It is hard to say just how good he is. He could be very good indeed and seems best going right handed. Monet’s Garden is another that will be suited by the track. If you are going to make all anywhere then Kempton is probably the place to do it. Monet’s Garden is fresh and if he gets into a rhythm he just might get Kauto Star off the bridle and the straight at Kempton is short.
I will go for Monet’s Garden to bring back memories of the grey ghost of Christmas’ past – the late Desert Orchid.
By the way I liked the Racing Post “Pipe and Slippers” headline about Niall Madden riding Puntal. Why didn’t I think of that?
The 12.35 at Kempton looks to be between the front 4 in the betting. We have 2 “national hunt” horses in De Soto and Kicks for Free up against 2 ex flat types in Lincoln winner Blythe Knight and Nicky Henderson’s debutante Khyber Kim.
I quite like supporting ex flat horses at Kempton. Khyber Kim was rated 106 on the flat and clearly commands respect. McCoy rides Blythe Knight who has already won over hurdles.
De Soto has had injury problems. He was second in the 2005 Cheltenham Festival bumper behind the ill fated Missed That. His recent win at Taunton could signal a change of fortunes for something of a forgotten horse. Kicks for Free lost his unbeaten record over hurdles when 2nd to the useful Tribal Bay at Cheltenham. He might have won had he not rattled the last though and his form looks solid. He just gets the nod.
The 1.10 features 4 from our list to follow in a competitive event. Yes Sir ran up 7 straight wins in the summer and his front running style could pay off. According to John has the perfect record with 6 wins from 6 starts. He impressed me when winning at Carlisle 2 starts ago and he has chances although this is his hardest task yet. Most of his wins have been with plenty of cut in the ground and I just wonder if that is essential to him.
Ungaro has won both his starts over fences and is in fine form. The extra distance today may suit but is not absolutely guaranteed to. Lastly we have Aztec Warrior who has plenty of ability but made a number of jumping errors on his last appearance when 4th at Cheltenham. This is a tricky race and I am reluctantly going beyond my list horses for my tip. I fancy the talented Bold Fire from the Paul Nicholls stable who gets all the sex and age allowances.
The Stan James Christmas Hurdle normally goes to a well backed runner and this year looks likely to go the same way. Straw Bear will be all the rage and given enough ease in the ground he will certainly be hard to beat. If the ground dries then Noble Request, Afsoun and Desert Quest would enter the equation. Noble Request has a good record going right handed and on lively ground I would fancy him to reverse the form with Straw Bear. I would be tempted to suggest Afsoun each way if there were 8 runners as I feel we haven’t seen the best of him yet.
Yaboya is our representative in the 3.00. I backed him last time he ran and just arrived in the bookies in time to see him fall. He was in contention against more experienced rivals that day and would have been in the first 3 had he not crashed out. He has top weight on Boxing Day but if he stands up he shouldn’t be far away. He has been raised 4 lbs since falling which seems harsh but I still think he has an each way shout.
It was difficult to find a selection at Market Rasen but in the end I have plumped for Custom Design. He has won twice over course and distance and his trainer has a good strike rate at this track. Custom Design’s trainer Geoff Harker trains just outside Thirsk.
Nicky Richards has his stable star Monet’s Garden in the big race at Kempton but he also has one runner at Sedgefield. Echo Point goes in the beginners Chase at 1.35. He was 4th last time at Carlisle after being off the track for a year and that run should have put him spot on for this.
I gave out Troll as a tip to a mate who was going to Haydock Park in early November but the horse could only finish 11th of 13. My reputation as a tipster was once again in tatters. Lenny Lungo has his team in good form at present and I am prepared to give Troll another chance in the 2.10.
Grecian Groom runs in the Towcester 1.15. He has been one of my more disappointing list horses and it is hard to fancy him.
In the 2.55 Chopneyev seeks to follow up his facile win the other day. Formerly a decent hurdler he looks one to keep on the right side.
At Wetherby in form John Quinn saddles Day to Remember in the 12.50. This one was previously trained by Ed Vaughan on the flat & won a 10f Newmarket handicap in May. Looks a useful recruit from the flat, he won very easily on his hurdles debut at Market Rasen and is potentially very smart: one to follow.
The 1.25 at Wetherby is the Rowland Meyrick Chase that was won by Therealbandit last season who sadly suffered a fatal injury reecntly. Ossmoses represents our list to follow. He was 4th over hurdles recently but is better over fences. He stays well and likes plenty of give in the ground. He is certainly one for the short list. The grey Silver Knight is a course specialist having won 4 from 8 here. He is a dour stayer that revels in testing conditions. This race also features a couple of old favourites in Sir Rembrandt and Truckers Tavern. Sir Rembrandt was 2nd to Best Mate in the 2004 Gold Cup and 3rd to Kicking King a year later. Truckers Tavern was runner up to Best Mate in the 2003 Cheltenham showpiece.
I just feel that this might go to the progressive King Killone who won last time, jumps well and seems to be on an upward curve.
The Wincanton 2.40 sees the return to the racecourse of Lord Sam. He won 9 of his first 10 races but has failed to win any of his subsequent 9 runs, failing to complete in 5 of them. At his best he ran 3rd to Hardy Eustace in one of the novice hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival and had Foreman in 4th. He did show glimpses of that old form last season and I certainly hope he can recapture his best form.
We have a horse from our list to follow in this race with Leading Contender. He put a couple of disappointing efforts behind him when winning at Chepstow. He has more to do here but the additional 2 furlongs will be in his afvour. He holds an each way chance.
Bien Bronze is a former points winner who also scored in a bumper at Killarney. He is my fancy for the 12.25 at Leopardstown. He is by the same sire as the great Florida Pearl.
Top the Charts is due to make his seasonal reappearance in the 2.00. He was 2nd in the Ascot Stakes last flat season and looks well handicapped. He is best on good ground.
There are 3 runners from our list to follow in the 2.35. Glenfinn Captain has already won for us when making all to beat Khetaam in October and should be fully primed for this more demanding task. Conna Castle has something to prove after falling when beaten last time out at Punchestown. Last season’s Coral Cup winner Sky’s the Limit has not set the world alight over fences yet. There could be more to come from this one and I wouldn’t rule him out. Glenfinn Captain looked very good last time and is the selection.
Cuchulains Son, the ride of Katie Walsh, looks the right sort for the bumper at 3.40.
Bye for now
ahorse 