Review of the flat 2004

 

 Review of the flat 2004

As always with these reviews I will be concentrating on horses I backed, followed or otherwise interested me and I will start with the story of a theory involving Chester, Kieren Fallon and a horse called Nashaab.

On May 7th Nashaab ran at Chester.  He had run 63 times and won 5 of them, the last in August 2001.  Why was I talking about a horse with a rather ordinary strike rate?  Well, he had won at Chester before as well as coming a fast finishing 4th in a race there.  He was favourably drawn 4 and was ridden by K Fallon for the first time ever.  He had run three times at Chester and his form figures at the Cheshire track were 124.  When he was 4th he was badly drawn 11 of 14.  I fancied that Fallon would be able to sit him in behind the leader and use this horse’s devastating finishing speed to good effect in the closing stages – anyway that was my theory! He was high enough in the weights for a horse that hadn't won for yonks and he probably prefers fast ground.  Still, I just had a sneaking feeling that connections fancied him for win number 6……In the event he was hampered at the start but finished well to come 2nd of 18.  I backed him each way but!  Sods law isn’t it, but after another losing effort he came back to Chester on August 1st and won at 5/1 when apprentice ridden.

If we move forward a couple of months, the following comment appeared in my racing diary on October 8th, “My regulars will know that Nashaab is a horse I occasionally put forward on these pages.  His wins to runs ratio is not up to much but the booking of K Fallon for only the second time in the horse’s career caught my eye here.”  Sure enough Fallon swooped late to get Nashaab home at 14/1.

On my web site I start the season with various lists to follow and monitor their progress as the campaign unfolds.  My “flagship” is the A list.

The A list

This was a list of about 65 horses that I backed blindly throughout the season.  The list produced a decent profit over the season as well as some big race winners such as North Light (Derby), Grey Swallow (Irish Derby) and Bago (Arc).
When it came to profitability though there was no contest with the “horse of the year” tag going to Mudawin, a 3 year old with Marcus Tregoning.  Mudawin’s 5 runs yielded a couple of victories at 20/1 and 11/1. The wins came in a Newbury maiden and a handicap at Ascot.  A relentless galloper with plenty of scope I will be interested to see if he stays in training.  He may be one to go over hurdles.

I usually have a few Mark Johnston 3 year olds on any list to follow and this season Etmaam and King of Dreams gave me some success.  Etmaam won 3 of his first 5 starts at Newcastle (10/11), Bath (9/2) and York (4/1).  At that point it looked as though there would be plenty more to come and indeed, he was very unlucky on his 6th run when 3rd in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot beaten a neck and a short head in 3rd when he would have won with any sort of a run.  It was downhill all the way after that as he showed very little in his remaining 4 outings.

King of Dreams won twice, the 2nd coming at 16/1 in a handicap at Newmarket but sadly he broke his leg when falling at York and had to be destroyed.

Multiple winners

Multiple winners were less plentiful than in previous years but both Alkaahdem and Bago chipped in with 3 apiece. I had high hopes for Alkaahdem at the start of the season but things didn’t go his way early on.  He was well fancied for the Lincoln but came 5th, “winning” the race on the wrong side of the track.  He was then a bit unlucky when not getting a clear run at Newbury.  He then put things right by winning 3 of his next 6 races, all at Goodwood at odds of 100/30 and 11/2 and 6/4.  The best win was the middle one at Group 3 level when tried in blinkers for the first time; the other 2 victories were in listed class.

All Bago’s wins came in France with unquestionably the best being the 19 runner Prix De L’arc de Triomphe at odds of 10/1, with North Light and Grey Swallow down the field.

A quartet at decent prices

A highlight of the season was the number of A list horses that won first time out at decent prices.  Grooms Affection, Pukka, Persario and Odiham all gave me early winners.  Grooms Affection won at Sandown first time up at 10/1 but did little in his 4 remaining runs and was sold for 11,000 gns in October, job done as far as making a profit was concerned though. 

Pukka is a half brother to Pongee, a horse I followed in 2003 and that won 4 times from 5 outings. Pukka also won first time out (11/1) which was his only success from a total of 4 races.  He was highly tried though, finishing 9th of 14 in the Epsom Derby.
I kept faith with Persario who had been an A lister the season before.  Persario repaid my faith as she was a ready winner of a 20 runner handicap first time out at 10/1. She was held up after a slow start but picked up well to lead close home. She was unsuited by the run of the race in her only other start but she is lightly raced and remains open to further improvement.  Odiham, trained by Hughie Morrison, won his first start (14/1) at Sandown and although failing to win in his 5 remaining races he performed creditably enough, notably when 4th of 13 behind Tempsford at Doncaster.  He remains of interest in staying handicaps next season.

A to Z

One of the problems of following long lists of horses is trying to remember the names.  It is a fact that the easiest to remember are those at either end of the list, the As and the Zs. I have already mentioned Alkaadhem, but the Zs also enjoyed a profitable time thanks to the efforts of Zonus and Zero Tolerance. Zonus, a tall colt with Barry Hills, won 2 of his 9 starts at 10/11 and 8/1.  The wins came in a maiden at Doncaster and a Chester handicap in August.  In the latter race Zonus travelled smoothly into contention and drew right away in the final furlong. Zero Tolerance had a similar profile winning twice from 8 starts at 7/2 and 9/1.  He was a good example of the need for patience in following this sort of system.  After his first 7 starts his only win had come in a minor event at Haydock in April and he was not showing a profit. But in the final days of the season he put in his best effort when, despite being bathed in sweat, he prevailed in a 13 runner Newmarket handicap by 1.75 L.

More than usual this was a season where my selections often justified their existence with a single win at a big price.  For example Wiggy Smith won once from 6 starts at 14/1, in a handicap at Epsom over 10 furlongs.

Raccoon made a profit with a couple of wins from his 8 runs.  Both wins came in May over the minimum trip.  The first was in a competitive handicap at Haydock and the second in a decent handicap at Musselburgh where the consistent Corridor Creeper was 2nd.  The winning odds were 5/1 and 11/4.

I don’t have many bets on the fibresand but Cape St Vincent won for me at Wolverhampton at the end of May at 5/1.  As he only ran 5 timers in total this constituted another profitable selection – just!

I tend to work from horses rather than trainers but, as is customary these day, I included a sprinkling of Sir Mark Prescott 3 year olds.  Regal Setting proved a profitable choice winning twice from 3 starts in handicaps at Nottingham and Haydock, both over 14 furlongs, at odds of 7/1 and  6/5, both in fast times.  Regal Setting has now joined Howard Johnson’s yard and will be going hurdling. The other Prescott trained 3 year old to show a profit for me was Optimal with 1 win from 4 at 7/2.

Classic winners

It is always nice to back a classic winner and this year A list horses took both the Epsom Derby with North Light and the Irish equivalent at the Curragh with Grey Swallow (pictured above at The Curragh, finishing ahead of North Light at who is in the pale colours)

After winning the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York (6/1) North Light kicked for home 3 furlongs out and stayed on strongly to win at Epsom under a positive Keiren Fallon ride at 7/2.  He only raced twice more, losing nothing in defeat when 2nd to Grey Swallow at the Curragh followed by a 5th in the Arc when not suited by the ground.  In this latter race he was taken on for the lead early and probably went a bit quicker than he wanted to.

Grey Swallow won two of his 6 starts with the Irish Derby victory coming at 10/1.
These were not the only big race winners.  Among the older horses, both Rakti and Doyen had their successes.  Rakti is a free going sort who is not entirely straightforward having given problems in the stalls on occasion. On his first run of the season he won the Group 1 Prince of Wales Stakes at Ascot (3/1).  On the strength of this he was made favourite for the Coral Eclipse but spoilt his chances by refusing to settle.  He failed again in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown where he reportedly banged his head when leaving the stalls.  As a result of these indifferent runs he was allowed to start at 9/2 in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot and, dropped down to a mile, settled much better and was driven out to win in a fast time.

Doyen (above) won 2 of his 5 starts, both the wins coming at Ascot at 6/5, and 11/10.  The first win came in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes which he won by 6 lengths, and the second in the Group 1 “King George.”  His win in the King George was very impressive. It was a shame that the race failed to attract a Derby winner and indeed was contested by only one three-year-old, the shock Irish Derby third Tycoon, but there were nevertheless seven individual Group 1 winners in the 11-horse line-up, among them challengers from the United States and France, and so it certainly wasn’t a weak field.  He then disappointed in both the English and Irish Champion Stakes, finding less than seemed likely on both occasions and although there were possible excuses in the track or the going these were poor runs nonetheless.

Nuzooa was a profitable selection winning 2 of his 4 starts at odds of 11/4 and 6/1.  The first of these was in an 11 runner maiden at Newbury where she won by 5 lengths and the second a handicap at Goodwood.

Salinor showed a profit winning his first two starts at 7/2 and evens before disappointing on his 3 remaining runs.

A couple of fillies that made me a profit without quite scaling the heights that had been predicted for them were Secret Charm and Phantom Wind.

Secret Charm had looked one of the most promising fillies around as a two year old winning both her races and having Ouija Board behind in one of those races. After being unplaced in Group 1 company in her first 3 runs in 2004 Secret Charm found her form with a gritty performance to win a conditions event at Doncaster at 11/2.  She ran with credit in 5th in a Group 3 at Newmarket on her final start.

John Gosden’s filly Phantom Wind was considered by some to be a dark horse for the 1,000 guineas.  As it turned out she only won once in 5 starts.  She disappointed in her first two races but then came good in the Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes at the end of July at Goodwood at 16/1 so she turned out to be a very profitable selection.

Border Castle only raced twice, winning a Newmarket Handicap (4/1) at the end of August, from another A lister, Zero Tolerance.  He was not discredited when 5th of 13 in his only other run.

John Gosden’s 3 year old Maraakeb only ran twice winning the second run at 3/1 after failing first time when odds on.  His win in a Sandown maiden was a taking performance proving his odds-on flop to be all wrong as he made all at a strong pace and enjoyed the step up in trip to 10 furlongs to break his maiden in some style. He was fully half a dozen lengths clear into the final furlong and value for at least that margin.

I decided to keep Polar Bear on the A list after he did well for me in 2003.  Things got tough for him though when he slammed a big field by 5 lengths on his favoured soft ground in a 7 furlong handicap at Newcastle as the handicapper raised him 13 lbs.  This rather forced trainer Willie Haggas’s hand and he ran Polar Bear next in listed company at York where he just managed to win by a short head, again on soft ground, at odds of 2/1.

Two other A list horses made a small profit.  Salford City was looked on as a classic contender and David Elsworth’s lightly raced colt put himself into contention by winning the Group 3 Greenham at Newbury at 100/30.  His other 3 runs were all in Group 1 class and although he ran well enough he did not win again.  He finished 5th in the Epsom Derby.

Sir Michael Stoute’s big filly Poise only ran once, easily winning a maiden at Goodwood at 1/3. If she remains in training as a 4 year old she has bags of scope but she'll eventually make a smashing broodmare.

The B list

The B list, an alternative list to follow, also enjoyed a successful campaign.  The biggest winner was Caribbean Coral. 

As is often the case with handicap sprinters he was kept on the go throughout the season, running 11 times in all.  He more than paid his way with wins at 5/1 and 20/1.  The 5 year old won the Vodaphone “Dash” at Epsom by a short head in a 20 runner field.  Caribbean Coral, up 4lb for his win at Epsom then followed up by winning the Gosforth Park Cup at Newcastle. He travelled well from off the pace, quickened up nicely to win his race and then wasn't doing a lot in front. He left the impression he won this with a bit in hand, and although he acted on this soft ground, he also goes on fast ground.

Caribbean Coral also ran some good races in defeat.  He ran 3rd to Celtic Mill in a listed race that didn’t exactly play to his strengths.  He also ran well in consecutive sprints in October, finishing 4th on both occasions.  The first of these was in a handicap at Epsom, the scene of his best win where he ran a cracker after being outpaced early on.  He was then an unlucky loser behind the consistent Corridor Creeper at Newmarket.  Caribbean Coral looked an unlucky loser as he was also slowly away but then had to sit and suffer when trying to get a run through against the far rail. He would have been second in another couple of strides and given the winner something to think about with a clear run.

There were some classy performances from other B list sprinters.  The enigmatic Airwave though was disappointing, her only win of the season coming in a listed race at Ayr at the prohibitive price of 4/6. The filly is unlikely to race again now so I was glad to see her go out on, if not exactly a high, then at least a reasonable effort at Ascot in her farewell performance.  Her final run was when chasing home Pivotal Point in the Group 2 Diadem Stakes at Ascot at the end of September.

If Airwave was not one of the more profitable selections, Frizzante, Somnus and Baltic King more than made up for that.  Frizzante, like Airwave seems to have been retired now, but once again had a fine session. She won the Palace House (Group 3) at Ascot on May day showing a fine turn of foot to beat Avonbridge by a head, with the two well clear of the remainder.  She was 13/8 favourite for this one but her second win really boosted the coffers at 14/1 in the Group 1 July Cup at Newmarket. A maximum field of 20, including runners from Hong Kong, Australia, Japan, France and Ireland lined up for this. After being none too well away (which didn't matter much, as she is a confirmed hold-up horse) she flew down the outside and got up under strong pressure close home to take the honours by a neck.

Baltic King is a hold up horse like Airwave and Frizzante and tends to be difficult to win with.  He managed 2 wins from 8 runs in 2004, and as these came at 7/4 and 9/1, he showed a nice profit.  After disappointing in his first couple of runs he came good in a big handicap at Ascot in July where he appreciated the fast ground and stiff finish. He got the better of Pivotal Point by a neck at odds of 9/1.  Traffic problems have cost Baltic King on a number of occasions but he managed to overcome some problems in running when winning at Beverley in a conditions race in September.  This was an impressive victory for Baltic King, who came from an unpromising position at half-way to streak clear inside the last and win like the good horse he is.

The horse that surpassed even these sprinters was Tim Easterby’s Somnus.  Somnus revels in soft ground and had the going in his favour at Newcastle in  Group 3 where he was 2nd to Royal Millenium giving away 8lbs.  He ran even better still when 2nd of 19 in the Stanleybet Sprint Cup Group 1 at Haydock in September where he was just not able to hold off Tante Rose, going down by a short head.

Somnus reserved his best displays for his trips to the continent.  The Prix Maurice de Gheest run at Deauville in August is not the strongest Group 1 on the calendar but Somnus won it anyway in typically gritty style.  In October Somnus again got his favoured soft ground and won the Group 1 Prix de la Foret at Longchamp.

Another sprinter that needs soft ground is Brian Smart’s Monsieur Bond.  He had a successful start to the season when trouncing 12 rivals in a Group 3 at the Curragh by 7 lengths.  He went one better in May winning at Group 2 level over 6 furlongs with Airwave and Somnus among his victims.

It makes sense to include a couple of Dandy Nicholl’s sprinters in any list to follow but I don’t always get the selection quite right.  Fire up the Band managed to win a listed race at Chester in July at 7/2 but that was his only success and he would have made a loss if backed blindly.  My other Nicholls selection was Machinist who ran consistently all season but only won once.  The win came in a handicap at Ayr in mid July under Alex Greaves at 7/1.  As he ran 8 times in all he “broke even” from a horse to follow point of view.  Five days after his only win he was turned out again under a 7 lbs penalty and ran well in second in a class B handicap at York.

Of the younger sprinters Alderney Race and Two Step Kid warrant a mention.

The former, trained by Roger Charlton won 3 times, and was 2nd twice from his 7 starts.  After picking up a Leicester maiden (9/4) he won twice at Newmarket in the summer, first in a highly competitive 19 runner handicap (13/2) where Two Step Kid was 3rd and then a class B handicap (4/1).  Although Two Step Kid only won one of his 7 starts he more than paid his way as the solitary success came at 14/1. The win came in the William Hill Trophy at York which was a typically competitive renewal of the richest three-year-old sprint handicap in Europe, and a thrilling finish with Two Step Kid getting home in gritty style after travelling like a winner the whole way.  Alderney Race was 4th of the 20 runners that day.  Two Step Kid also finished 4th in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood producing a sterling effort for a 3 year old.

It is always good to get a few early season winners when you are using a list to follow.  Mis Chicaf and Lord Mayor both paid dividends early in the season.  Mis Chicaf only ran 4 times with all those runs coming in a 6 week spell.  She won a filly’s handicap at Donny (9/2) and then demolished her rivals in a 19 runner class E handicap at York (11/4).  She was then raised a stone in the weights and only beat 2 home behind Two Step Kid at York.

Lord Mayor started the season with a promising 3rd in a good York handicap before notching his only win of the season in a valuable handicap at Epsom.  Given an ice cool ride by Keiren Fallon he came with a very late run to win going away at 11/2.  He was upped in class for his remaining 3 runs the best of which was when he was a shade unlucky when 5th in a listed race at Ascot behind Aiden O’Brien’s Moscow Ballet.  Moscow Ballet was himself one of my B list horses and won this at 8/1.

I included the mandatory Johnston 3 year olds in the B list.  The best of these turned out to be Go Padero.  He didn’t appear until 17th October when he scraped home by a short head in a Musselburgh handicap at 16/1.  On his next outing he finished 4th behind the A list Zero Tolerance before rounding off a short but profitable campaign by winning a fair 7 furlong handicap at Catterick at 9/4.
Dr Thong didn’t quite show a profit but gets a mention on the strength of his intriguing name.  Trained by Paul Cole he was kept on the go throughout the season running 10 times and winning twice at 6/1 and 5/4.

There were other more profitable 3 year old, The following nap hand all served me well; Quarrymount, Flipando, Albinus, Stoop to Conquer and Harrison’s Flyer. Quarrymount ran 10 times winning 3 and being placed 2nd on 5 occasions.  However, despite this Level of consistency he failed to make me a profit as the wins came at 1/1 & 10/11 & 7/2.  He proved a little one paced over shorter trips and his best performance was probably when winning a 0-85 handicap at Newmarket in October of a mark of 70.  Flipando was a progressive sort who looked a very useful sprint handicapper in the making, perhaps ideally served by a stiff six furlongs.  He won a 15 runner handicap at Haydock in early July (3/1) and a handicap at Musselburgh (7/2) in September and made a small profit from his 7 runs.

Albinus started off finishing only 10th in the maiden at Newbury where Mudawin won at 20/1.  Incidentally, other Russellform horses, Dr Thong and Whitsbury Cross were 4th and 5th respectively.  He was then a short head 2nd to A lister Etmaam at Bath before landing a couple of handicaps at Ripon and Salisbury at 9/4 and 6/1.  He was then only beaten a neck and a short head by Frank Sonata and Pukka in a listed race before finishing 5th of 8 in a group 3 at Newbury.

Stoop to Conquer was one of the B list stars with 3 wins from 7 starts and at good odds too.  The first was in a fairly ordinary 2 mile 1 furlong class E handicap at Pontefract (15/2) , he then justified favouritism in a slow run affair at Goodwood over 3 furlongs shorter (11/4) and rounded off the season in October over 2 miles on soft ground in a handicap at Newbury.  Not surprisingly the horse was then sold to go hurdling.

At the other end of the distance scale Harrison’s Flyer had gone on the B list after a promising effort on his only run as a 2 year old.  His first 9 runs produced little of note; he even unseated his rider coming out of the stalls on one occasion. It therefore came as something of a turn-up when, as apparently the stable second-string he pulled right away from his rivals to get off the mark at the 11th attempt at 16/1.  That win had come at Brighton and he duly followed up on the AW at Wolverhampton 3 days later under a 6 lbs penalty at 9/2.  He then completed the hat trick when getting the better of A lister Fiddle Me Blue by 1.75 L at Musselburgh at 7/1 over the minimum trip.

Harrison’s Flyer had looked a temperamental sort before his purple patch at the end of the season and another to show something of a “dark side” was Tagula Blue.  He had become a moody individual and even refused to race on his 3rd start swerving badly on leaving the stalls and taking no further part. He was certainly not one to trust but there was something symmetrical about his final form figures.  He ran 12 times and won just once – at 12/1.  The win came in a 17 runner handicap at Warwick.

If Tagula Blue was not one to trust, that could certainly not be said of the thoroughly genuine Audience.  Like Tagula Blue, Audience ran 12 times but his only win came at 11/1.  The win came in a handicap at York in September but there were plenty of other creditable performances notably when 8th, but beaten only a length in the Royal Hunt Cup.  He was only beaten a short head by Everest at Newmarket and ran a blinder in 3rd in a listed race at Haydock in early September.

John Dunlop’s 3 year old Kodiac made a small profit winning the first of his 3 runs at 5/2, while Royal Prince was a successful choice winning 3 times.  Royal Prince’s first 5 runs yielded a couple of wins, both at the skinny price of 8/11, and then ran a promising race at Ascot when 4th.  Having watched the Ascot race I was quite sweet on his chances when he turned out just a week later in a 1 mile handicap at Newmarket and he duly obliged at 13/2.

The Godolphin trained Badminton only ran twice winning the first of these in listed class at Ascot at 11/4.  He stays in training next year and can only improve.  Another profitable Godolphin horse was Duke of Venice.  After winning a small race at 4/6 he went on to win the Group 3 Queens Vase over 2 miles at odds of 9/2.  He ran 5 times in all.

Both Whipper and American Post won 3 times in France.  Whipper’s best run was in beating Six Perfections in a Group 1 at Daeuville.  American Post won a Group 1 at Longchamps but in slightly fortuitous circumstances when the likely winner lost any chance by colliding with the running rail.

The B list supplied a Classic winner from a somewhat unlikely quarter.  Bachelor Duke pulled off a surprise by winning the Irish 2,000 guineas at The Curragh at odds of 14/1.  This was a rare Classic victory for a maiden and a training triumph for James Toller, who had the courage of his convictions in allowing the colt to attempt to reverse form with the two Irish-trained colts that had finished in front of him in the Newmarket equivalent.  Azamour finished second and Grey Swallow 3rd.  As Bachelor Duke only ran 3 times in all he was a particularly profitable selection.  Azamour (pictured below) was to have his own moments of glory, by first winning the St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot (9/2) and then the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (8/1) where he has A list horses Grey Swallow, Rakti and Doyen behind him.

Mark Johnston’s Mister Monet looked like being one of the season’s stars until fate intervened.  He started off in handicap company and after being beaten a short head on his seasonal reappearance he won a small 4 runner race at Hamilton and a rated stakes at Ascot.  He was stepped up in class to win the Group 3 Rose of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock beating Muqbil. This was a very decent effort, beating a more than useful rival who was in turn well clear of the rest.  A win in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano came next and Group 1 success seemed to beckon.  His next race was the Champion Stake.  He had improved so much since his Ascot handicap win that he looked to have a realistic chance of winning. Sadly, he went badly wrong in the early stages and was taken away with a suspected fractured near-hind pastern.  Sadly he could not be saved.

If the death of Mister Monet was one of the low points of the season the saddest day was  when the news came in that the great Persian Punch had died from a heart attack at Ascot during the Sagaro – the whole of racing was shocked.   He was undoubtedly one of the most popular racehorses of all time.  Doubtless there will be discussions about whether he should have been racing again at the age of 11, but that is surely redundant. He was always gallant and in a way it seems fitting that he should go out with his boots on, as it were.  Still, I would rather it were otherwise – if ever a horse deserved a long retirement it was this one.
I will give the last word on the B listers to Bandari who won 4 times from 10 starts.  Three of the wins came in successive runs starting with a 10 runner conditions stakes at Newmarket on May Day.  He then beat a good field in a listed race at Chester where he was given a patient ride and, in the end his proven stamina came firmly into play as he swooped late to win going away.  The hat trick was completed in the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown.

The former St Leger third,  Bandari’s renaissance since he was dropped back to 10f had been one of the highlights of the season, and although he had plenty of good form over further in his younger days (he never ran over 10f until this year, having jumped straight from 1m at 2 to 11.5f at 3) there can be little question that this is his optimum trip now. Sent past Chancellor into the lead going into the bend, he was strongly challenged throughout the last 2f and possibly headed, but battled really hard under strong pressure, despite Ikhtyar leaning into him.

Stepped back up to a mile and a half Bandari took the Princess of Wales Stakes Group 2 at Newmarket of July 7th getting the better of Sulamani who was carrying a Group 1 penalty. From a punting point of view Bandari did us proud as his wins came at 9/2, 100/30, 7/2, 12/1.

The handicap snips list

The idea of this list to follow was to find some big priced winners. The most spectacular success was Sierra Vista.  David Barker’s sprinter only won once from 12 starts but that win came at 33/1.  The win came in an 18 runner handicap at Newcastle over 6 furlongs.

Although Toby Balding’s Marker came in at 9/1 in a handicap at Goodwood he failed to make me a profit as he ran 11 times.  Dandy Nicholl’s Pieter Brueghel had a similar profile winning at 13/2 in a handicap at York but this was the only victory in 10 starts. In contrast Lynda Ramsden’s Trojan Flight ran pretty consistently all season in sprint handicaps.  For the record his form figures over a busy season were 40400043212104240.  The two wins came in 18 runner handicaps at Beverley (3/1) and Redcar (7/4) so a fairly substantial loss on this one I am afraid.  One of the problems with Trojan Flight is that he needs to be held up and in big field spring handicaps this inevitably leads to traffic problems.

I did get a profit out of the Richard Fahey trained Bo McGinty although this looked unlikely at one stage. Bo McGinty shaped well from a poor draw on his first start and confirmed that promise when winning a competitive 3 year old sprint handicap at Hamilton by a short head, at 11/4 favourite.  He then lost his next 5 starts but dug me out by winning at Sandown at 6/1 where the stiff finish seemed to suit.  In total he ran 9 times.

The star of this section was Pivotal Point who won 4 of his 9 starts for popular trainer Peter Makin.  He had shown signs of a return to form at Windsor when running well from an unfavourable draw and confirmed this when winning a handicap at Ascot (5/1).  He then took the Stewards Cup at Goodwood at 7/1.  He burst through between the pacesetters and, despite edging right to finish midtrack, settled the race with an impressive turn of pace.  He beat The Tatling in a Group 3 at Longchamp and finished the season with a win in the Group 2 Diadem Stakes at Ascot (11/2.)

On 27th September I added Spirit’s Awakening to the list and he promptly won a 17 runner handicap at 11/2 3 days later. He had not won a race for two years, but he had run some good races in defeat during the summer and this success was not coming out of turn.  He ran twice more without winning again but a nice profit had been made with this “supersub.”

The Dark Horses list

The horses on this list were mainly unraced 3 year olds so the strike rate was always likely to be sub standard.  There were some success stories however, and none more so that Into the Dark who had a perfect record of 4 runs and 4 wins.  He started by quickening clear in a Doncaster maiden to win by 5 lengths (15/2), followed up by winning handicaps at Newmarket (100/30) and York (evens). His last win was gained in the listed Doonside Cup at Ayr (5/4).  A horse who was unraced as a juvenile, Into The Dark progressed well all season and he could develop into an even better performer next season.

Vinando was a real moneyspinner winning 3 of his 5 starts at 11/2 and 8/1 and 12/1.  After winning a maiden at Windsor he disappointed on his handicap debut but, fitted with a tongue tie, he powered clear in the final furlong to win over 12 furlongs at Ascot. After a defeat in his next race he won a Newmarket handicap when taking on his elders for the first time.

Madid won a Newbury maiden (7/1) coming from last to first and did the same thing a couple of weeks later in a listed event at Sandown (11/2).  He was unplaced on his only other start but far from disgraced when staying on when the race was over in the St James Palace Group 1 at Ascot.  He may have lost his unbeaten record but this was still a fair effort from a Listed-race winner.
Hezaam won a couple of handicaps in the middle of an 8 race campaign but would have paid to follow as one of the wins came at 12/1 at Sandown.  Glencalvie is no world beater but won a couple of small handicaps at Yarmouth and Lingfield at 11/2 and 5/1
respectively.

Alqwah is a taking filly and, despite wearing a tongue-tie and crossed noseband, settled well in front in a Salisbury maiden in June and won a shade cosily to suggest there is plenty more to come after this belated racecourse debut. She was nicely clear into the final two furlongs and when challengers threatened, she found more to suggest a longer trip will be no problem.  She won at 5/1 but did not appear again.  Balavista won a maiden at Haydock in impressive fashion (4/1) but rated 84 failed to make an impression on his only other start in a handicap at the same track.

Roger Charlton’s Motorway ran 3 times winning the middle one in a Windsor maiden (7/2).  Worcester Lodge didn’t show much as a juvenile but was gelded and made a successful return to action when winning a 12 furlong Newmarket handicap (8/1).  He may have been unsuited by the track when finishing down the field on his only other start in a similar race at Kempton.

Two year olds

This was not a vintage season for the 2 year olds list to follow.

Crimson Sun was consistent with form figures of 21102.  His best run was the last when only beaten a neck in a Group 3 at Newmarket when not quite seeing out the 7 furlong trip.  Pike Bishop only ran twice but won on both occasions.  He won at 8/1 at Windsor looking a smart colt in the making and followed up with ease at Ripon when long odds on.  He is a grand sort with plenty of foot but did not run again.

Kissing Lights ran with credit in decent company.  Her only win came in a filly’s maiden at Warwick.  She was 3rd (at 25/1) in the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot in July and was a strong finishing 3rd in the Group 2 Flying Childers (20/1 this time) at Doncaster in September.

Jamie Osborne’s Moth Ball proved progressive winning 3 times.  He showed promise in his first two runs but gave problems going into the stalls and was coltish in the paddock.  However, on his third run, although Moth Ball had little clue what was required, Darryl Holland  made his mind up for him, making all the running to win a decent maiden at Goodwood (3/1).  He went on to win twice more, on his 6th and 8th starts.  The first a nursery at Brighton, and best of all in the listed Rockingham Stakes at York (15/2).  He is not entirely straightforward, he was still playing up in the stalls on his last run, but he is clearly a smart colt.

My two juvenile stars were Etlaala and Galeota.  Etlaala is a colt with plenty of size and scope and he turned a Newbury maiden in August into something of a procession justifying 5/2 favouritism. He then went on to claim the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster in September (6/1) despite encountering plenty of trouble in running.  He was a big disappointment on his last run in the Dewhurst when he only beat one home.  Perhaps this defeat can be put down to the soft ground.

Galeota won 3 of his 6 runs.  His wins were in a maiden at Windsor (7/2), a conditions stakes at Doncaster (4/1) and the Group 2 Mill Reef at Newbury (7/1).  Although the latter race was probably a weal renewal the winner is a tough customer who always gives of his best.

Old friends

I always keep an eye on horses from previous years lists to follow.  Refuse to Bend, Russian Rhythm and Soviet Song all did themselves credit at 4, having been top quality 3 year olds.  Refuse to Bend was back to his very best when winning the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot by a neck from Soviet Song in June and the Eclipse at Sandown in July. He was forced wide when a respectable 3rd to Rakti in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot.  Russian Rhythm only made one appearance in 2004 and that was a winning one in the Lockinge at Newbury.  She was then found to have injury problems and was retired.  Soviet Song had rather lived in the shadow of Russian Rhythm in 2003 but she really came into her own last season winning 4 times including 3 consecutive Group 1 races.

Some of the season’s big handicaps were won by former A list horses, notably the Cesarewitch (Contact Dancer) and the John Smith’s Cup at York (Arcalis). Contact Dancer had moved to Mark Johnston’s yard and was well ridden by R Ffrench to hold on gamely after leading over 2 furlongs out.  He was suited by the distance and the soft ground.  Arcalis, formerly with Lynda Ramsden but now with Howard Johnson, having been purchased to go hurdling won from an apparently “impossible” draw and in spite of the fact that jockey Robert Winston dropped his whip a furlong out. 

Sprinter Smokin’ Beau bounced back to form with a vengeance having not won a race since October 2002, running up a hat trick of wins in sprint handicaps. The best of these was the Great St Wilfred at Ripon where he beat Pieter Brueghel (2nd) and Machinist (4th).  He had dropped some 17 lbs in the handicap since his last win in 2002 and this, combined with a change to front running tactics brought about his change of fortunes.

Another front running sprinter to prosper in 2004 was the northern trained Celtic Mill.  This tall, leggy gelding won a Thirsk handicap in May, and listed events at Windsor and Doncaster.  He was also a creditable 4th of 12 behind Pivotal Point in the Diadem.

A couple of ex A list horses, Muqbil and Tante Rose won on the same day.  The filly Tante Rose had an excellent season winning all 3 starts. She won the listed Cecil Frail at Haydock, a Group 3 at York and best of all the Stanleybet Sprint Cup at Haydock (Group 1) beating Somnus by a short head.  Tante Rose has often looked a potentially high-class filly in the past and the drop to 6f last season has been the making of her, though she has also benefited from having plenty of time between races. There was no arguing with her performance at Haydock as she came from off the pace to lead inside the final 1f, showing a fine turn of speed.  Muqbil improved in2004 winning a minor event at Doncaster in June and a listed race at Newbury in July.  He was not disgraced when 2nd to the ill fated Mister Monet in the Rose of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock.

Another to improve in 2004 was Pongee. She won a listed race at Haydock in May and the Lancashire Oaks there in July.  She put up other decent performances including a second on the Yorkshire Oaks.  Another filly that certainly deserves a mention is Polar Gem.  I followed this one as a two year old in 2002 but she turned into a much improved performer in 2004, winning 5 times with brave front running tactics.  She won a minor event at Ripon and handicaps at Kempton, Sandown and Newmarket. She ended up by winning in listed company at Yarmouth.  Another ex “Russellform” two year old to catch the eye was Byron who showed a good turn of foot to win the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood.
                                               
I had some success with tips on the web site for a couple of Sir Mark Prescott horses.  Tempsford won a 12 furlong handicap at Doncaster in October while the grey Coat of Honour won a class B Goodwood handicap in July.  Both came in at odds of 10/1.

I am always interested in lists of horses to follow and I made a note of a dozen horses put forward by Peter Naughton at the start of the 2003 season.  They did OK but that was nothing to the spectacular success these horses achieved in 2004.  River Falcon won twice at 16/1 and 12/1, Gifted Flame twice at 5/1, Jordan’s Elect won races at Hamilton at 7/1 and 8/1, Mon Secret at 14/1 and Piccled at 33/1.
 

A perfectly “Legal” theory

It would take a long time to explain my connection with Legal Set and I won’t bore you with the details.  Suffice to say that this grey, a multiple winner in times past, especially on the all weather, had been in decline for a while.  Anyway, he appeared at Ayr on June 18 on a mark of just 45 having won off a mark of 70 or more 5 times.  OK, he was a couple of pounds out of the handicap but if Natalia Gemelova could get down to a low enough weight to make her 7 lbs claim pay we had to have a small each way nibble.  "Legal" had run quite well 2 days before when 5 lbs out of the handicap and had been dropped a further 5 by the handicapper.  Thrown in or what?  These stories rarely have a happy ending and of course and the old boy was caught on the line and beaten a neck at 20/1, and no, in the  I didn’t do it each way!  It was a damned good theory though and 6 days later the same jockette got him home at Hamilton at 9/2.

 

In all Legal Set ran 36 times in 2004 and just recorded the one win – not exactly a horse to follow.
 
If we are talking about horses with a busy schedule we have to give old Quito a mention.  The Ayr Gold Cup winner of 2003 was better than ever in 2004. After winning a handicap at York in May and a minor event at Haydock he went on to win a listed race at Doncaster in November.

And that is where I will leave this look back at the flat season of 2004.