Grand National 2006 Aintree 4.15
4 miles 4 furlongs
Amberleigh House won two years ago but is 14 now and past his best.
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Ballycassidy is not badly handicapped jumps well and is not a forlorn hope. His chance would be greatly increased if the ground really dries out. Needs a fast surface.
Baron Windrush best career win was last January when he won the Warwick Classic over 3 miles 5 f on soft ground.
Clan Royal – This horse has a massive chance. 2nd two years ago to Amberleigh House and unluckily carried out by a loose horse last season when bombing along in front. He has a great record over these fences and warmed up for the race with a nice win over hurdles at Market Rasen.
Colnel Rayburn – Was travelling well enough last year when hampered. Not one I really fancy. Best in testing conditions.
Cornish Rebel – He was my fancy for this race at the start of the season. He has never fallen and has only been out of the first 3 on 3 occasions. He has good form in the top staying chases. 2nd narrowly beaten in the Scottish National (4 miles 1 furlong) last season and 3rd in both the Hennessey and the Welsh National this season. He is a slightly quirky type that might take to these fences but has 11 stone 9 to carry and that is going to make life difficult for him.
Direct Access big old fashioned chasing type. My concern would be that he fell at the first fence here in the Bechers. Has since won at Newcastle and is one for the short list. His jockey has more wins over the national fences than any other rider in the race.
Ebony Light – Has won 3 times this season but has gone up considerably in the weights as a result. Lacks the class for this and strikes me as being a bit of a moody type.
First Gold – Top class in his day but 13 now and has not completed in his last 3 starts.
Garvivonnian won th Becher Chase here in November. He looks to have the stamina as he won the Cork National over 3.5 miles in 2004. Runner up to Forget the Past who was 3rd in the Godl Cup on his last run at Fairyhouse.
Hedgehunter – Last year’s winner and a superb 2nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Jumps as well as anything in the field and has only fallen once in his career and that was when tiring at the last fenced in the 2004 National. Carries top weight and needs to defy the stats if he is going to win as horses just don’t win the National off this sort of weight. I think he has a pretty good chance of bucking the trend as he is the best horse in the race and at the top of his game.
Forest Gunner was a big fancy last year but appeared to run out of steam in the closing stages and ended up in 5th. Ridden by the excellent Nina Carberry and there are certainly worse outsiders. Poor form this season though.
Haut de Gamme has twice run well over these fences including 2nd in the Topham last year. There are stamina doubts but he jumps fluently and his recent hurdles form is encouraging.
Heros Collonges had the world at his hooves at one time but serious injury problems have blighted his career. 8th last season he jumps well and was 2nd in the Welsh National. Could go well at a huge price.
Inca Trail – Is a full bhrgother to Cornish Rebel and of course the late great Best Mate. The family all jump well and Inca Trail comes here on the back of two wins at Sandown. He might go OK. He has a fair weight. He is a bit of a tricky ride as he needs to be held up until very late. Good ground will help his cause.
Innox – 7th last season when fading near the end. Has gone up 8 lbs in the handicap since but has won his last 2 races in class handicaps. Ridden by Choc Thornton who has won on him before. Should act on the ground and has a big chance.
Iris Royal – Not always the best of jumpers and stamina doubts at this trip.
Joes Edge has ticks in many of the right boxes. Game winner of the Scottish National last season and is in the right sort of age group.
Juveigneur was 2nd to Jack High in the Whitbraed last season and also 2nd on his last run at the Cheltenham festival. He has run indifferently over these fences twice in the past however which is a concern.
It Takes Time was 4th last season. He has gone up in the weights since and with 11.8 to carry at the age of 12 has plenty going against him. I still feel that he could get round in the first 8 or so but he wont win.
Iznogoud – 12th last year and no reason why he should do any better this time.
Jack High – His form reads pretty well as he was 2nd in last years Irish National and won the Whitbread at Sandown. His usual jockey has chosen to ride Garvivinnian instead which might be significant.
Just in Debt was 9th last year. He has gone well over these fences a number of times and is a likely finisher. Probably not good enough to get in the frame though.
Knife Edge – Best in the mud and at shorter distances.
Le Duc has twice been placed over these fences over shorter distances. He is only 7 and 7 year olds have a poor record in the race. Has a touch of class though.
Le Roi Miguel – Has 11.7 to carry and has never won beyond 2.5 miles.
Lord Atterbury – 3rd in 2004 but fell at the first last year. He is actually quite a chancy jumper. Could go well at a very big price if he gets round.
Lord of Illusion – One of my long term fancies. He is a sound jumper and does not look badly handicapped. He put in his best performance this season when 2nd at Cheltenham on New Years Day over an extended 3m 2f. Main worry would be the form of the stable, or rather lack of form.
Montayral – His last win came in 2003 in the Cork National over 3.5 miles. Probably not good enough.
Native Upmanship – Knocking on a bit at age 13 and his form is all over shorter distances. Not keen on him really.
Nil Desperandum – Has always had ability but has not always shown it. 6th last year and has been brought along quietly for another tilt. Chances.
Numbersixvalverde – won last year Irish Grand National. He has clearly been laid out for an assault on the English version. Significantly supported in the past month, it should be noted winners of the Irish National, Bobbyjo apart, have a poor record in this race. Not sure he jumps well enough and his price looks too short.
Philson Run – Dour stayer who has won the Eider Chase and the Midlands National both over 4 miles plus. Will not lack for stamina.
Puntal – Has not run since December ’04. You could fancy him on his very best form. His biggest career win was when beating Royal Auclair in the 2004 Whitbread. He is 17 lbs better off with the Nicholls horse now but is an unreliable customer.
Rince Re – aged 13 now and has not won for over 3 years. Best on soft ground. Classy when at his best.
Risk Accessor has come to grief on both his last 2 runs in this race. Has been in good form this season and could go well at a price if getting round.
Ross Comm – has won 5 times this season including over 3 miles 2 furlongs in heavy ground at Carlisle. Live outsider he will be easy to spot as he is almost white.
Royal Auclair – A very consistent chaser who finished 2nd last season under a big weight. He was 4th in the 2005 Gold Cup and only beaten a short head in the 2004 Whitbread (3 miles 5.5). He is generally an accurate jumper and is best on good ground. Has to carry top weight with Hedgehunter even though he finished well behind the Irish horse at Cheltenham last month. He is a horse I have always liked but I fear the big weight will stop him from winning. Possible he could creep into a place.
Shotgun Willie is 12 now and probably past his best. Last big win was in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock over 3 years ago. Good on his day but asking a lot now.
Silver Birch won both the Welsh National and the Becher Chase last season, showing that he both stays and handles the National fences. His form has really dipped this term though and there must be a doubt about his well being. If he is still going well at half way he could be one to back in running.
Sir OJ fell last time out but generally jumps pretty well. He finished like a rocket to win a big handicap at Cheltenham earlier in the season but that was over 2 miles 5 furlongs.
Spot the Difference – Cross country race specialist. Jumps well and stays longer than the mother in law but getting a bit long in the tooth. 19th last year and something similar on the cards this time.
Therealbandit – comes into the race on the back of a winning return to form. He has 11-9 on his back and is now rated on 149. He has however won off 150 but I think there are more obvious contenders.
Tyneandthyneagain won the Eider Chase at Newcaastle last season over 4 miles 1 furlong. Best suited by very soft ground and would need the heavens to open.
Whispered Secret – A 7 year old and no horse of that age has won since 1940. This horse also has stamina doubts.
The short list (14)
Clan Royal, Hedgehunter, Nil Desperandum, Ross Comm, Haut de Gamme, Garvivonnian, Lord of Illusion, Direct Access, Sir OJ, Le Duc, Forest Gunner, Joes Edge, Lord Atterbury and Innox.
Well we can’t back 14 so something has got to go!
Lord Atterbury is a dodgy jumper and may not make the cut anyway so is the first to go. The stamina doubt over Haut de Gamme is enough to discard him, while I have a slight doubt over Ross Comm’s stamina and his lack of big race experience. Nil Desperandum is one of the horses on my list to follow and I am reluctant to chop him but he is inconsistent and you can’t back everything. 10 left.
Garvivonnian is perhaps just not quite good enough, lacks the class to win. Now it gets really difficult. Le Duc goes because of the poor record of 7 year olds, Forest Gunner in view of his lack of recent form and Sir OJ on stamina doubts and the fact that he fell in his last race.
Now we have 6 left and I am going to give you two approaches to the race.
Hedgehunter and Clan Royal are by far the most likely winners. Hedgehunter is actually well handicapped. For example he is on the same weight as Royal Auclaur who he beat out of site at Cheltenham last month. He is only giving 4 lbs to the likes of It Takes Time. It’s a joke! As long as the ground rides good he has a great chance. The softer the ground the more the big weight might stop him. Clan Royal is also potentially very well handicapped. His connections have been running him over hurdles so that he does not win chases and go up in the weight. He loves it round Aintree and must go well. You could back those two.
The top two are quite short prices. If that bothers you then the other 4 will have to come into the equation. Innox is probably the best of them as he comes here in great form on the back of two wins. Some experts think he doesn’t stay the trip. Perhaps he won’t but he still looks the next best to the top two.
Joes Edge has not been running particularly well this season. On the basis of his gallant win the Scottish National and the fact that he has won 3 times in April I like his chance. Would not want the ground too soft.
Direct Access comes here having won last time, is quite lightly raced and might be better than the bare form. The downside – the only time he has tackled the National fences he fell at the first. Lord of Illusion is a bold jumper and has an each way squeak. If he gets into a rhythm he might well enjoy the fences but he is just the type that might go charging up to the first fence too quick and come a cropper. Would not want soft ground. Good luck
ahorse 