Cheltenham 2007 – Day 4
2.00 JCB Triumph Hurdle
Two of the horses that I had on my flat list to follow last season feature among the fancied runners for the Triumph. Degas Art won a listed race on the flat at Newmarket beating a Godolphin runner over 12 furlongs. On that occasion he raced alone on the rails and one worry would be that he might not take to the hustle and bustle of this sort of race. He has won all his 3 starts over hurdles and holds a major chance though and the track should suit. The other runner from my flat list is Liberate who won 4 times for Sir Mark Prescott on the level over distances up to 2 miles. He has won 2 out of 3 over hurdles and he has won on good to firm on the flat so drying ground would be to his advantage.
Another promising English challenger is Punjabi who is well fancied by his trainer Nicky Henderson. He has won two out of 2 over hurdles. In theory there should be doubts about his stamina as he was a miler on the flat but he has belied that in his performances thus far over hurdles.
There is a strong Irish challenge and one I particularly like is Duty, who used to be trained by Sir Michael Stoute on the flat. He has won his last 2 starts over hurdles including a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse. That was on heavy ground but he won on a fast surface so he should handle any ground. He has a progressive profile but one slight concern would be that he has had rather a busy schedule of late.
Katchit will be a strong fancy for the race. His form figures over hurdles read 112111 and that included 3 wins at Cheltenham.
Lastly I have to mention the Irish mare Lounaos. She won her first two starts over hurdles, the second a Grade 2 event, before finishing 4th at Leopardstown behind Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca and Mac’s Joy, albeit receiving 19 lbs. She was rated 98 on the flat but all her wins under both codes have come on soft going.
That would be my short list. Katchit and Lounaos are both rather short priced for a race of this nature so I would recommend an each way interest in any of the other 4. They should all handle the ground OK.
2.35 Brit Insurance Novices’ Hurdle
Wichita Lineman looks banker material for this. His only defeat this season came when beaten half a length by Massini’s Maguire here at Cheltenham. The winner that day won the Ballymore Properties Hurdle on Tuesday. The 3rd horse was Juveigneur who was only beaten in a photo in the William Hill Trophy on Monday. In his latest run Wichita Lineman beat Tidal Bay at Cheltenham and that horse finished 2nd in the Ballymore Properties. He has rock solid form and has won on both heavy and good to firm.
Other contenders would be Black Harry, Flight Leader and Sir Jimmy Shand who would all appeal on an each way basis. Wichita Lineman looks very strong though.
3.15 Cheltenham Gold Cup
If you were to ask me what is the most likely winner of the Gold Cup I would have no hesitation in nominating Kauto Star. He is a very classy animal and I have been a big fan ever since he came over from France. He has won all 5 of his starts this season at distances between 2 and 3 miles. Although he makes mistakes he is clever enough to stay on his feet (or at least he has been so far this season). Anyway, all the other runners are just as likely to make a mistake. Exotic Dancer made a real mess of one in the King George for example.
There are a few negatives. He is not guaranteed to stay. He has so much speed over 2 miles that the trip of the Gold Cup just makes me wonder, but he has been finishing his 3 mile races well enough and the better ground will help. He also fell on his only visit to Cheltenham so may retain bad memories of the place and his wins have mainly come in small fields. The trouble is if you don’t want to back the Paul Nicholls horse what do you back?
L'Ami could be argued as an each way proposition. He has not been out of the first 4 over fences since falling in the King George on Boxing Day 2004. He has finished 4th on both his previous visits to Cheltenham and he generally jumps and stays well. However he was beaten by Kauto Star when they last met and is now 10 lbs worse off at the weights. His wins to runs ratio is pretty grim as well.
Exotic Dancer and State of Play are both contenders. The former has plenty going for him. He has won on his last 4 visits to Cheltenham. The most recent of these was in the Cotswold Chase in heavy ground and he only has to travel 1 additional furlong in the Gold Cup. He is certainly a tempting possibility.
State of Play has not run since winning the Hennessey in good style back in November. That shouldn’t be a problem though as he goes well fresh. He jumps and stays. On the negative side his stable has been rather quiet of late and of course he has come from handicaps and may simply not be good enough. State Of Play is a young horse on the up whose last two runs have been his best and I have time for him.
Robert Alner is represented by the grey The Listener. His form this season is hard to fault. He came very close to beating Star de Mohaison at Sandown and then at Christmas he took the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown. He then looked all set to win again at that track in the Irish Hennessey until remarkably caught close home by the veteran Beef or Salmon. The Listener is also a course winner and jumps well. His full brother Fork Lightning won at the Festival in 2004. On the down side he is best on soft ground.
Halcon Generlardais won the Welsh National earlier in the season and is a sound jumper that stays very well.
Beef Or Salmon is a big favourite of mine an has 10 Grade 1 wins to his name even so I can’t see why he should win at the 5th attempt. Also the rgound has gone against him.
Looking for each way or place value may be the way to go in this race. In 2005 the 2nd and 4th horses were 25s and 40s respectively. In 2004 the 2nd and 3rd were 33/1 and 20/1 while last season Hedgehunter was runner up at 16/1.
Turpin Green has this as his target and is reportedly right back to his best. I could see him making the frame and is worth a small each-way bet perhaps. According to John ran an absolute stormer for the stable when third to Denman on Tuesday at 66/1. Turpin Green can be a moody individual and has been known to spit the dummy out but he has ability, in fact he beat Exotic Dancer out of sight earlier in the season.
My Will is a solid horse that you could see being placed. He has only fallen once in his 22 starts over fences in this country so is clearly a sound jumper. He won a handicap at Cheltenham in November showing considerable determination to get the better of Idle Talk. He is certainly one that could stay on into a place at long odds. The same could be said of Idle Talk who was 2nd to Star de Mohaison in the Royal and SunAlliance at last season’s Festival.
Neptune Collonges won the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle and fell two out in a race won by Exotic Dancer last time out when in with a chance. They were level weights that day.
If you wanted a really silly bet there are worse than the grey Bob Bob Bobbin who beat Distant Thunder at Bangor this season and goes well fresh. He is on offer at 200/1 in places and shouldn’t be as big as that.
Kauto Star is the likely winner; even more likely given the change in the weather. If you want to back him don’t let me deter you. My own view is that he is not value at 6/4. Earlier in the week I was going to tip The Listener with an each saver on Halcon Generlardais but the ground has gone against both so it’s a rethink!
Exotic Dancer has such fantastic form at the track that he has to be on any shortlist. At around 4/1 the value has probably gone on him though. State of Play acts on any ground, goes well fresh, has never fallen, has won over this trip and if you can get around 8/1 on him I would have a nibble each way.
If you want to subscribe to my big priced place bet theory I hope I have given you a few ideas. My Will, Idle Talk, Neptune Collonges, Halcon Generlardais and Turpin Green all come into this category. If I had to pick one it would be Idle Talk on the basis of his good run at the Festival last year.
4.00 Christie’s Foxhunter Chase
I can’t see a good reason not to go for Whyso Mayo as he looks even better than when he won last year. Anyway I can’t really find anything to oppose him with. Honourable Spider was one of my fancies last week but he really needs soft ground. Bica is another to consider. This ex French 7 year old is lightly raced and has had leg problems but won a couple of races quite easily to qualify for this.
Whyso Mayo has to be the selection here. If you want an each way at a bigger price you could try Oscar India, First Down Jets and Gone to Lunch.
4.40 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase
Nicky Henderson will clearly want to win this race named after his father so a good starting point will be to look for one of his. Mick Fitzgerald has chosen to ride Tysou which could be a pointer. Tysou will appreciate a decent surface and on his last race was 4th to Dempsey who ran such a cracker yesterday.
Ironically a major fancy for this race, Saintsaire, used to be trained by Henderson but is now with Paul Nicholls. I have always liked this horse but he has had his problems over the years. It is no secret that Nicholls has laid this one out for the race. He won last time out and has a nice racing weight. I am very strong on Saintsaire who has been laid out for this.
Demi Beau is trained by Evan Williams so I would recommend that you see how State of Play runs in the Gold Cup for making a decision on this race as the Williams yard has been quiet of late. He is another winner last time out and has the ground to suit.
These would be my two against the field with Jack’s Craic next best.
5.20 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle
Paul Nicholls won this with the grey Sporazene in 2004. On that occasion he ran Rigmarole off top weight and put much of the field out of the handicap. He has used that sort of tactic here with Desert Quest topping the weights and that leaves Ruby Walsh’s mount, Ouninpohja off a nice weight. Ouninpohja is probably not the most reliable horse in training and he has a high head carriage. He has plenty of ability though and gets my selection in this.
Whispered Promises is overpriced for a horse with three very solid pieces of form this season behind Overstrand, United and Detroit City and is another worth a close look.
The David Pipe trained Osana has very strong claims and could well be in the firing line. He looks nicely weighted and made all to win in a good time at Wincanton on his last outing.
Kawagino was 5th in the Champion Hurdle (he was 7th lasts season) and gets in here off just 10 stone 5 and must have a great chance.
I quite fancied Caracciola, Tarlac and Trompette from Nicky Hnederson’s stable but Mick Fitzgerald has bypassed all 3 and gone for Papini (what do I know anyway!). Papini beat subsequent big race winner Heathcoate at Sandown last time out so it is just possible that Mr Fitzgerald knows what he is doing!
I will stick with Ouninpohja in a very competitive race.
Good luck
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