Author: Martin

The highlights tomorrow are the Welsh National at Chepstow and the Grade 1 Lexus Chase from Leopardstown.

I am going to start at Chepstow where there is a strong line up for the marathon chase. There are two previous winners of the race in Halcon Generlardaias and Miko De Beauchene as well as Cornish Sett who was runner up last year. Also in the field is the 2009 Grand National winner Mon Mome and two Scottish National winners in Hello Bud and Iris De Balme. Kilbeggan Blade has twice won the London National, Gone to Lunch was runner up in the Scottish National last season while Flintoff was second in the 2009 Midlands National. Add in 4 winners last time out and this is clearly a strong renewal.

The conditions are likely to be testing which brings in Silver By Nature who won at Carlisle on heavy ground on his last start. The 3^rd that day, Mr Strachan, has since franked the form. Coe has been runner up on both his starts this season. He handles the ground and stays well as he showed when 2^nd in the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock last season on heavy ground. Old Benny is a past winner of the National Hunt Chase over 4 miles at Cheltenham and finished 4^th in the Scottish National in 2008. He has won on heavy ground over hurdles. The ground will probably be too soft for Gone To Lunch who would otherwise have been my selection. Halcon Generlardais has a tremendous record in the race and the ground will suit. He is possibly slightly past his best though.

My 2 against the field though are Kornati Kid and The Tother One. Kornati Kid acts on soft ground, should stay and was 6^th behind Denman in the Hennessy at Newbury. Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race and The Tother One, runner up in the Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton, looks sure to go well. He has a very good record on soft and heavy ground.

There are promising reports about the Paul Nicholls newcomer Sang Bleu in the 2.45.

In the opener at Leicester (12.50) Sandynow could be interesting. He was a gutsy winner at Warwick last time out and will handle the ground.

Jaffonnien won a bumper on his only previous visit to Leopardstown and this two mile specialist can take the opener at the Irish track. He is fitted with a tongue tie for the first time and this 2 mile specialist looks value at 13/2.

A case could be made for Pandorama, Catch Me, Weapons Amnesty, Lenabane and China Rock in the 1.30. It is hard to find fault with Pandorama who should be suited by both the trip and track and he is the selection. The progressive Lie Forritt should prove too strong for the home team in the 2.00.

The Lexus Chase at 2.35 sees a clash between two of the most promising chasers in Ireland, Cooldine and Joncol. Cooldine was an impressive winner of the RSA Chase at Cheltenham last March while Joncol took the John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown earlier this month. Also in the field is the Welsh National and Guinness Gold Cup winner Notre Pere and there is a strong English challenge with Voy Por Ustedes, Money Trix, Cloudy Lane and What a Friend. It is hard to separate Joncol and Cooldine but my narrow preference is for the latter with Ruby Walsh on board. Cloudy Lane at 20/1 looks each way value.

My best bet at Limerick is Hugo De Vindecy in the 1.45.

Today’s pictures are of Silver Birch, former winner of the Welsh National (artist Sarah Clegg) and Beef or Salmon three times winner of the Lexus Chase (artist Jenny Lupton).

 

Selections for Sunday;

KEMPTON: 1.00 – Mille Chief; 1.30 – Riverside Theatre; 2.05 – Argento Luna; 2.40 – Crack Away Jack (ew); 3.15 – Little Josh.

LEOPARDSTOWN: 1.25 – Forpadytheplasterer;1.55 – Some Present; 3.05 – Dooney’s Gate.

LIMERICK: 3.50 – Prudent Honour.

DOWN ROYAL: 3.00 – Top Twig.

Just a few random thoughts to add to the above.  In the 2.05 at Kempton both Dansimar (stable in form) and Inghwung look over priced while in the 3.45 Numide and Right Stuff could go well at decent prices.

If the main meetings go ahead on Boxing Day there will be plenty of quality racing for the National Hunt enthusiasts and some tricky puzzles to solve from a punting angle.

Kempton seems the obvious place to start and I will tackle the races in race card order. Dual bumper winner Bellvano looked a very bright prospect when making a successful hurdles bow at Newbury and he certainly sets the standard in the 12.45. He is yet to encounter really testing conditions which could be a concern depending upon the state of the going. He does look by far the most likely winner however. The main threat could come from Menorah who was beaten by a useful looking type in Bobby Ewing last time out. He had previously won a bumper at Naas and a novice hurdle at Warwick. Bellvano is the selection with Menorah the next best.

In the handicap hurdle at 1.20 Clova Island is worth considering. He has only had 7 runs over hurdle and has never run a bad race. He has run well at Kempton on his only previous visit finishing runner up to Somersby just over a year ago and he followed that up with a win at Taunton last December. He was a staying on 4^th on his last start behind the runaway winner Spirit River. Tomorrow’s race is over a further half a mile which should suit

Long Run come into the 1.55 with a mighty reputation from his efforts in France where he has won 8 of his 12 starts, all at Auteil most recently in a Grade 1 chase last month. Ogee comes into the race on the back of wins at Bangor and Uttoxeter but will not want the ground too soft and seems unlikely to get his ideal conditions. Tazbar was rated 157 over hurdles and made a winning start to his career over the larger obstacles at Musselburgh. He could be the one to benefit if the favourite disappoints on his first run outside France but Long Run has to be the selection. Tazbar has a good record racing right handed and is the danger.

Go Native was most impressive when winning the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle and a repeat of that performance would make him a very live contender for the Christmas Hurdle at 2.30. He has plenty going for him; his trainer has a good record in the race and the horse has a potent turn of foot and the track should suit him. Binocular (pictured below) is on something of a retrieval mission having been most disappointing in the Fighting Fifth.

He is unbeaten going right handed though and the Fighting Fifth was something of a messy race. If we ignore that run then Binocular would take some beating on his earlier form. I see these two as the main contenders with Starluck perhaps the best of the outsiders. At the time of penning these notes (Christmas Eve) odds of around 5/4 are available about Binocular and I inclined to view that as value.

The main event is of course the King George at 3.05. It is perhaps stating the obvious but Kauto Star (pictured below) has proved himself to be a very difficult horse to beat.

He would appear to have just about everything going for him on Boxing Day and he is very difficult to oppose. Imperial Commander is the obvious danger as the pair were only separated by the shortest of noses at Haydock last month. With Kauto 1/2 and Imperial Commander 6/1 though does that make the Twiston-Davies horse the better value? Perhaps so. If you look hard enough it is possible to pick holes in the Commander’s armoury. Is he better going left handed? Is he best fresh? Maybe but given the big differential between the odds he does look potential value. Of the rest Albertas Run, and Deep Purple look the each way shots to consider.

Vodka Brook is a horse I have always liked. He has run well to be placed in both his starts over fences so far. He is not the biggest and has to shoulder 11 stone 11 in the 3.40 but as long as the ground is not too testing, he would not want it really soft, he gets my tentative selection.

At Leopardstown the Grade 1 novice chase at 2.20 looks an intriguing contest. The pair that make most appeal are Sizing Europe and Osana. Sizing Europe is the selection.

In the 1.20 Alaivan, an easy winner at Gowran Park lines up against Cross Appeal who won a Grade 3 at Leopardstown. A listed winner on the flat when trained by John Oxx Alaivan looks a class act and is preferred. Prince of Milan is my each way suggestion in the bumper that brings the Leopardstown card to a close at 3.30. Mr Cracker stepped up on previous efforts when 4^th at Navan earlier this month and if that improvement continues he should go well in the 12.45.

There is also a strong card at Limerick on Boxing Day where Sports Line is my selection for the Grade 2 novice chase at 2.10. He beat a strong looking field at Navan last month and impressed with his jumping.

Quiscover Fontaine started his career by winning a bumper and went on to win 3 of his 5 starts over hurdles. The way he jumped hurdles suggested that he would take to fences and he makes his debut over the larger obstacles in the Limerick 3.15. He has shown a liking for soft ground although he won his bumper on good going.

At Huntingdon Moorlands Teri should give us a run for our money in the 12.05. She was given plenty of experience in bumpers winning 2 of her 5 starts in that sphere and she has already got off the mark over hurdles winning at Uttoxeter. She handles any going and is an out and out galloper who should be suited by the track.

I tipped Devon Native when he was runner up at Leicester and I will stick with him to gain compensation in the 1.15.

My selections for Wincanton are;

12.35 – Chilli Rose; 1.10 – Good Man Jack: 3.25 – Andytown (danger Nampour): 3.55 – Robin Will.

My only selection at Down Royal is Top Twig in the 3.00.

My thanks to Sarah Clegg (Binocular) and Lisa Miller (Kauto Star) for the pictures used today.

Our only hope of some jumps racing lies with Ffos Las tomorrow, where there is a morning inspection.

I will just point out a few horses that you can look out for at the Welsh track. Rebecca Curtis sends a team there headed by The Jigsaw Man, the stable star. He runs in the 2.10 where he is set to carry a big weight. His only defeat to date was in a bumper at Galway when he was beaten a length by Loosen My Load who has since won a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham. The Jigsaw Man has so far mainly run on decent ground but should handle some cut. A couple of other interesting runners from the same stable are Praxiteles in the 1.05 and Adams Island in the bumper at 3.45. The former is a points winner in Ireland and Tom Scudamore rides. He won his point to point on heavy ground. Praxiteles is a half brother to Islington and was a winner on the flat for Sir Michael Stoute before sustaining an injury. He is bred to win races and is certainly one for look out for.

Gold Award was 9^th in the 2008 Champion Bumper and is a winner over hurdles. He represents Nicky Henderson in the 3.15 and should go well. Lastly, look out for Ballingaddy in the 2.40. He won a point to point at Athenry before joining Alan King and although he has not set the world alight since he is well handicapped if he can recapture his form.

Can I take this opportunity to wish you a very happy Christmas and a peaceful, prosperous new year.

My thanks to Andrew West for his seasonal photo of Stratford racecourse in the snow.

The prospects form racing tomorrow do not look too promising with Ascot and Newcastle already off and Haydock and Navan hinging on morning inspections.

There is an interesting card at Haydock so hopefully the weather will relent a little. In the opener at Haydock, a novice chase at 12.40 My Moment is likely to start a warm favourite. It could be worth taking the favourite on with the giant Quwetwo who won a bumper and two hurdles races last season but is the type to do even better jumping fences.

In the 1.50 Open de L’Isle is worth considering as he will appreciate the testing conditions. He does seem better going right handed however and I prefer Suntini the recent Lingfield winner who also likes soft ground.

The Tommy Whittle at 2.30 looks an open contest. Top Weight Jaunty Flight won first time out last season and likes heavy ground. Jass is a solid stayer but his trainer has not had any winners for the last couple of weeks. The Sawyer acts on the ground and comes into the reckoning as does The Vicar who should strip fitter for his run at the track last month Recent Newbury winner Exmoor Ranger, Nirvana Swing and I’moncloudnine are all worth considering but for my selection I will choose The Vicar.

In the 3.25 Mcmurrough and Wymott look the two to concentrate on. Wymott looks an improving sort and can land the prize.

My selections at Navan are Good Fella (1.55) and Jessies Dream (3.00).

Today’s picture is by kind permission of Sarah Clegg

My last 6 selection have yielded 3 winners and I am hopeful of another good day tomorrow. The covers are on at both Ascot and Uttoxeter as the winter weather begins to bite.

Express Leader won a bumper at Wincanton before finishing runner up to Shinrock Paddy at Cheltenham. Beaten a short head on his hurdles debut in January he runs in the 12.45 at Ascot tomorrow where he should appreciate both the trip and the ground. A points winner he will probably be going over fences sooner rather than alter but given a strong pace he could well collect tomorrow.

Bellvano was mightily impressive when winning at Newbury and should have no trouble following up in the 1.55. Dave’s Dream, like Bellvano is trained by Nicky Henderson and can give the trainer a quick double by landing the 2.30. He was a workmanlike winner on his chase debut at Huntingdon and will have learned from that. Little Josh could be the danger as he is proven on heavy ground.

Ernst Blofeld was a beaten favourite on his chase debut but was not disgraced in second and should go one better in the 1.45 at Uttoxeter where the giant Big Burrows looks the danger.

Qualypso D’Allier was vying for the lead when hampered, unseating his rider at the last fence at Towcester last month. He was well backed that day and is worth an interest in the 2.50.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Jane Dunn.

Selections for Thursday

Exeter 1.50 Diamond Brook

Exeter 3.20 Carole’s Legacy

Ludlow 2.40 Brenin Cwmtudu

 

Oscar Whisky has won a couple of bumpers at Newbury and returns to the Berkshire track for his hurdles debut in the 1.25 tomorrow. He is likely to be hard to beat.

Nicky Henderson trains Oscar Whisky and he also has the likely winner of the 3.10 in Candy Creek another dual bumper winner who has already scored over hurdles. In the same race Cuckoo Pen could run well at a bigger price. He is a half brother to Carruthers and was a promising runner up at Uttoxeter in a bumper back in May.

At Bangor Black Jack Blues, twice a winner in bumpers, once at this track, made a pleasing start over hurdles at Newbury and should go well in the 12.10.

Point to point and bumper winner Peddlers Cross is my idea of the winner in the 1.45 while Dansimar is my selection in the 2.20.

Today’s picture is by courtesy of the artist Lisa Miller.

 

Rigadin de Beauchene has plenty of stamina in his pedigree as his half brother won the Welsh National and the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup. He runs in the 1.00 at Folkestone tomorrow and may find the trip on the short side. He is one to keep an eye on though especially over longer distances.

The other horse that catches my eye is Vodka Brook who runs in the 3.00. He has shown enough over fences to indicate that he will win races. He is on the small side though and is set to carry 11 stone 12 which puts me off tipping him.

So, no selections tomorrow.

With the meeting at Ayr tomorrow abandoned the only remaining jumps fixture is at Plumpton.

There is an interesting novice chase at 1.35. Francoek and Numide were both decent hurdlers but as yet have not shown the aptitude for fences that their connections light have hoped for. Either could come good here and of course the Paul Nicholls runner Mahonia has to be respected but in search of some value my selection is Shoreacres. A winner of a bumper at Plumpton he was 7^th in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and his stable is in good form.

When AP McCoy rides for trainer Charlie Egerton it is usually worth noting and tomorrow McCoy is on recent Ludlow winner Abbeviallian in the 2.05.

Today’s picture is by courtesy of the artist Katy Sodeau.