Diary: January 16 2010

There does seem at least a chance of some racing over the jumps tomorrow so here goes with the first preview for quite a while. From a betting point of view I would recommend a degree of caution as of course we can’t be certain of the level of fitness of the horses after their enforced lay off.

In the opener at Kempton Jonjo O’Neill gives a hurdles debut to Braveheart Move who won 3 times on the flat last season when trained by Sir Mark Prescott. Ex flat horses from the Prescott yard traditionally do well over timber with Inglis Drever being the best example. Tony McCoy has the ride and this 4 year old son of Cape Cross, sire of Sea the Stars, is clearly one to look out for.

The Nicky Henderson trained Mad Max lost his unbeaten record last season when eighth at the Cheltenham Festival in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle but he has always been a chaser in the making and he makes his debut over the larger obstacles in the 12.55 tomorrow. The stable often win with their novice chasers first time out but Mad Max is a real giant of a horse and may take some getting fit. The market should be a guide to his chances.

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In the Lanzerote Hurdle at 2.45 Tasheba, a winner on heavy ground at Sandown last time, should give us a run for our money. Aachen and Gee Dee Nen are others with possibilities but I will burden Tasheba with my selection.

Aigle D’Or has been disappointing over fences so far having promised much on the basis of his hurdles form. I am prepared to give him another chance in the 3.15 where there are question marks against quite a few of his rivals.

Tazbar was no match for Long Run at Kempton but meets nothing of that calibre in the 1.20 at Huntingdon tomorrow and he looks the likely winner.

Luska Lad in the 2.20 is my best bet at Naas while in the 3.50 Prince of Milan can go well at a big price.

On the all weather at Lingfield there are only 4 runners in the 3.10 but they don’t lack for experience with a combined age of 32. Eisteddfod usually likes small fields and is not without a chance. There were excuses for his defeat over course and distance last time. On this occasion though I just prefer Atlantic Story who has won 5 times at the track with 3 of these over tomorrow’s distance.

Today’s picture is by kind permission of the artist Katy Sodeau.

Diary: January 13 2010

Well we still don’t have any jumps racing but it is good to see Southwell are staging an all bumper card tomorrow which will give jumps trainers a chance to run some of their horses.

Nicky Henderson sends a strong team to Southwell and looks the trainer to follow. All the Henderson runners look worth considering but I particularly like the look of Line Freedom in the 2.40. She was an impressive winner on her only previous start which was at Cheltenham last April.

 

Review of the flat 2009 – Part 4

Here are the next 10 of the horses that caught my eye during the 2009 turf season.

50 – Nanton. For number 50 in my list I have plumped for the remarkably versatile Nanton. His best run of the 2008 season came when he was runner up in the Cambridgeshire over 9 furlongs. In 2009 he proved that he stays a good deal further and he was rewarded for some consistent efforts in various big handicaps when beating Manyriverstocross in the competitive Mallard Stakes at Doncaster, a handicap over 15 and a half furlongs. There were also a string of excellent performances in defeat. He was 2nd in Redcar’s Zetland Gold Cup, 4th in the Royal Hunt Cup, runner up in a Heritage Handicap at Haydock, 4th in the Ebor and 3rd in the Cambridgeshire. Best suited by a strong gallop he invariable comes with a sustained late run and is at his best in multi runner handicaps.

49 – King of Wands proved a successful horse to follow with 3 wins from 5 starts. Named after the tarot card that focuses on finance and business John Dunlop’s 3 year old certainly rewarded his followers with 3 wins from 5 starts. His opening mark of 76 looked potentially lenient especially as he looked the type to benefit from a step up in trip as a 3 year old. His wins came in handicaps at Folkestone, Salisbury and Sandown. At Salisbury he beat the subsequent Ebor winner Darley Sun giving that rival weight. He also ran second to Penang Princess at Sandown.

48 – Glass Harmonium won a maiden at Yarmouth on his second start as a juvenile and was predicted to be one of Sir Michael Stoute’s better 3 year olds. In the event he probably didn’t quite live up to expectations finishing out of the frame in both the Craven Stakes and the Dante. He earned his place in this list though with a couple of creditable performances. His one win of the year came in the Hampton Court Stakes, a listed race at Ascot where he came in at 8/1. Arguably he put in an even better effort when runner up beaten a head in a Group 3 at Newmarket in mid October.

47 – Invisible Man, owned by John Gosden and running in the colours of Princess Haya of Jordan was a progressive 3 year old handicapper. He won 3 times all over a mile, a maiden at Newmarket, a handicap at the same track and a handicap at Pontefract. He was ridden by Robert Havlin each time.

46 – Spring of Fame was bought by Godolphin from former trainer Mikael Magnusson but failed to live up to expectations falling short of top class lacking a turn of foot. Dropped a little in class though he stayed on well to beat Cloudy Start in a class 2 conditions event at Newmarket. He also won a listed contest at Deauville.

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45 – Bab Al Salam confirmed the promise shown when winning his only start at two when winning 4 handicaps during the season. He won at Sandown over a mile off 81 and then over a mile and a quarter off 86 at Lingfield. He then defied a 5 lbs raise in the weights to complete the hat trick at Bath. He lost his unbeaten record when a disappointing 3rd at Newmarket but bounced back to form on his final outing with a fluent success at Kempton over 10 furlongs.

44 – Stoic – Jeremy Noseda’s colt Stoic missed the early part of the season with splint problems but after an encouraging return to action at Windsor won off a mark of 84 on his handicap debut at Sandown ridden by Tom Queally. He followed up with a win at HQ under Shane Kelly and made it 3 from 4 when dead heating with Penitent in a competitive mile handicap at Kempton. He looks an interesting prospect for mile handicaps next season.

43 – Saga De Tercey made his racecourse debut in a bumper at Huntingdon winning easily under the highly promising Rhys Flint. The sort of horse that trainer Alan Swinbank does so well with the 4 year old by Sagacity duly won his maiden on the flat when odds on at Musselburgh. A second at Carlisle in a ladies race was then followed by another success, this time at Catterick when he got back up having been headed inside the final furlong. Neil Callan was on board on this occasion in a 14 furlong handicap. A highly creditable second in a handicap at York was followed by another win this time at Thirsk where he was given a fine ride by Neil Callan and stayed on too strongly for his rivals. A disappointing 8th of 10 in the Cesarewitch trial at Newmarket on his final start he nonetheless deserves his place on the list with 3 wins and 2 seconds. –

42 – Roman Republic was a typical Mark Johnston 3 year old, tough and consistent. He was highly rated as a 2 year old being sent off a hot favourite on his racecourse bow. Although he ran poorly that day he made amends on his next run and in 2009 he won decent handicaps at Doncaster and Goodwood at the rewarding odds of 6/1 and 9/2. His final 2 starts of the season, both in Heritage handicaps saw the Cape Cross colt at his best. The form of his second to Firebet at Newmarket was boosted when the winner went on finish 2nd in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes. Roman Republic then landed the Summer Vase Handicap at Goodwood in gritty fashion, a race his trainer has an enviable record in.

41 – Your Old Pal seemed to surprise his own connection when winning his only run as a 2 year old on heavy ground at Newbury where he won by 6 lengths. In 2009 he won a 7 runner listed race at Newmarket by a head from Palavicini and was then a good 4 length 2nd to Father Time in the King Edward the Vll Stakes at Royal Ascot. He ran 4 times in all during the season and with his win coming at 13/2 he was a profitable horse to follow.

Picture by courtesy of the artist Karen Davis.

Diary: January 2 2010

 

I won’t spend too much time on the preview tonight as the prospects of racing at Sandown seen none too good.

Carole’s Legacy, Easter Legend and Jaunty Flight all look worth considering in the mare’s novice hurdles at 1.05.  Carole’s Legacy has been running over fences winning at Wincanton and Exeter.  She is a tough sort and couldn’t be ruled out here although really testing ground would not be in her favour.  Easter Legend is another with a taking attitude.  She won a handicap hurdle at Ascot in November on good ground. Jaunty Flight makes her season debut having been chasing last season.  She likes plenty of give in the ground and did win first time out last season. Assuming the ground is soft or worse Jaunty Flight is probably the percentage call. On better ground the other two would be preferred.

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In their write up about the 2.05 the Racing Post say that there are question marks against a number of these. a comment I would have to concur with. In the circumstances I will look for some value.  The Vicar has possibilities. He handles give in the ground, has had a run which should have put him spot on and has AP McCoy in the saddle.  At an even bigger price Officier de Reserve formerly with Paul Nicholls but now trained by Venetia Williams looks on a fir mark as he is 3 lbs lighter than when 4th in last season’s Welsh National.

I quite like Ph Crick, a festival winner last season, in the 2.35 now that Alan King’s horses are running better than a few weeks back.  He has shown his best from on a decent surface however which is a slight worry although eh did win on heavy ground at Plumpton earlier in his career.

My selections for the final two races on the card are Oscar Whisky (3.10) and Qozak (3.40).

Today’s picture is courtesy of Margaret Barrett.

Diary: December 31 2009

 

It would have been nice to have ended the decade with a winner but sadly my 3 selections yesterday were all disappointing.

The cold weather continues to disrupt the national hunt racing programme but hopefully the meetings at Cheltenham and Exeter will beat the freeze.

At Cheltenham there is a tricky looking handicap chase at5 1.05 where Sue Smith sends down 3 runners. Turpin Green has his second run for the stable and is very well handicapped on the pick of his form. He was 3rd to Kauto Star in the 2007 Gold Cup and now runs off a mark of 145. He is an inconsistent sort but ran well enough on his seasonal reappearance ay Haydock in November when 4th to Shining Gale. If the change of scenery has brought him back to anything like his best he would be well in here but he has always been inconsistent and is not one to rely on. Mr Strachan might be a safer bet. He missed most of last season but has come back well. After finishing 3rd behind subsequent Welsh National runner up Silver by Nature he won at Hexham on heavy ground. He generally jumps well, is in form and acts on the ground. Jass is going to land a decent handicap at some stage I am sure. He has plenty of stamina and might even want a stiffer test . Double Dizzy will act on the ground and ran well last time when 5th in the cross country race at Cheltenham. The stable have been in good form of late which is another plus. My two against the field would be Mr Strachan and Double Dizzy.

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Punchestowns looks an exciting prospect over fences and takes a step up in class in the 1.40. He looks the most likely winner but the opposition are no mugs and he will probably be a short price. A race to watch rather than bet on perhaps as taking short prices in novice chases is probably only going to lead to penury!

The 2.10 is another competitive handicap chase where Razor Royale and Chapoturgeon, 2nd and 4th respectively in the Boylesports Gold Cup would have to be on the short list. Private Be, runner up at Chepstow over Christmas and Newbury winner Exmoor Ranger are others to consider. Chapoturgeon is the selection.

In the 2.45 course and distance winner Time for Rupert can defy top weight while I expect Mr Thriller to get the better of Katchit and Sentry Duty in the 3.20.

I have two selections at Exeter, in the 12.50 Wishfull Thinking and in the 3.35 Tocca Ferro.

Finally I would like to wish you all a prosperous 2010 and thank you for taking time to read these pages during 2009.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Jane Dunn.

Review of the flat 2009 – Part 3

At number 60 on my list is the sprinter Hitchens. Good enouh to finish second in the Goffs Million at the Curragh as a juvenile this 4 year old son of Acclamation rediscovered his form after a move to the stable of David Barron. He started the season with a win in a 4 runner conditions event at Thirsk beating Knot in Wood then followed a run of 7 defeats. A drop in the ratings from 110 to 95 put him on an interesting mark come the autumn and he duly landed the Manchester Evening News handicap at Haydock in September by a short head at 7/1. Perhaps my write up the night before could have been a little more confident – “Hitchens continues to creep back down the weights and has an each way squeak in the 3.00” but I will still claim a winning tip!

Hitchens ended the season with 2 wins from 10 starts. The horse at number 59 was more consistent finishing the season with form figures of 22211. Blue Nymph had gone into my notebook having made late headway into 5th place in a Nottingham maiden, his only run as a two year old. After having to settle for the runners up slot he was not winning out of turn when landing the odds in a 12 furlong Kempton maiden in September. He followed up with a win in handicap company, again on the all weather but this time on the “other” surface at Southwell and over 2 furlongs further.

I was reading an article by Ian Carnaby the other day about horses with cleverly thought out names. He cites Gary Moore’s Wait for the Will, who is by Seeking the Gold out of You’d Be Surprised as one of his favourites. I rather like Cloudy Start who is by an Alleged mare called Set Fair and lived up to his name by taking a couple of runs last season before reaching the winner’s enclosure. In the end he proved a very profitable horse to follow though as he won twice at the rewarding odds of 5/1 and 10/1. The first win came in a handicap at Epsom where he was ridden by Tom Queally who had such a good season and he followed up in a decent conditions event at my lucky track, Kempton Park. He failed to add to his winning tally in 3 subsequent efforts but anyone following him would have ended the season very much on the right side.

Cloudy Start is number 58 and at 57 I have chosen Nehaam. John Gosden’s colt gave me an early season winner when accounting for Monitor Closely in the valuable Tattersalls’ Timefrom 3 year old Trophy at 8/1. After a couple of disappointing runs he returned to Newmarket at the end of the season to finish runner up in both the Noel Murless Stakes and the Group 3 Jockey Club Cup.

Shamali went into a few notebooks when winning at Wolverhampton in November ’08. He only ran 4 times during the turf season but continued to progress winning his last two starts, both in Ascot handicaps.

Ruth Car took over the trainer’s license from her grandfather David Chapman a couple of years ago and has enjoyed a successful start to her training career. She did particularly well with the likes of Ninth House and Raccoon but my favourite from the yard was Moheeb (pictured below with trainer and jockey)  who landed handicaps at Haydock, Thirsk and Ripon. With the wins coming at 13/2, 6/1 and 7/1 he proved a very profitable horse to follow.

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Shamali is number 56 and Moheeb is 55. For the number 54 slot I have chosen Apple Charlotte, a horse that featured in my 2008 article on unraced 2 year olds, a year in which she won her only start. The Royal Applause filly won her first two races as a 3 year old, the second a listed race at Newbury and she returned to the Berkshire venue only losing out to Splashdown by a short head. She was only out of the first 3 once when contesting the American Oaks at Hollywood Park.

Trainer Willie Haggas enjoyed another successful campaign in 2009 and his fast ground performer Musaalem is number 53 on my roll of honour. The sort of horse that you need to catch on a going day he is always likely to pop up at decent odds. He was an easy winner of a 7 furlong handicap at Doncaster in July, a track that seems to suit him but disappointed in his next race when last of 15. He finished his campaign well though. After a promising 4th in a strong Doncaster handicap he won the listed Guisborough Stakes over 7 furlongs at Redcar at 14/1 on his favoured fast ground.

Judge ‘n Jury was one of the most improved handicappers in training in 2008 and I was hopeful that he would pay to follow again in 2009. In the event he proved not quite up to listed or Group 3 level although he ran 2nd to Reverence in a Group 3 at the Curragh in soggy conditions. He did pay his way though as he landed a heritage handicap at Ascot at 14/1 when the handicapper dropped him a few pounds. He is number 52.

At 51 I have chosen another sprinter in Amour Propre, trained by Henry Candy. A winner of his last 3 starts as a juvenile, including the Cornwallis Stakes he got his 3 year old career off to a flying start when winning the Palace House Stakes, a Group 3, at Newmarket. He drew clear of his field staying on strongly despite drifting in the market to 7/1. He was found to have ripped a front shoe off when below form in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot on his next run but he travelled well for a long way when 5th to Borderlescott in the Nunthorpe on his third and final start of the season when he reportedly returned with bruised feet.

Photo courtesy of Ruth Carr Racing.

Diary: December 31 2009

Sona Sasta won a point to point at Sligo over 3 miles before joining the David Pipe stable. He ran 3 times over hurdles at Taunton last season over shorter trips and showed some promise, particularly on the third run when 4th behind Carrick Boy. He runs in the 12.50 at Warwick tomorrow where the longer trip should be in his favour. His mark of 93 does not look unreasonable.

176596_Walking back after the race

Carrickmines may well defy the handicapper and complete a hat trick in the 2.50 while Miss Overdrive, runner up on her last two starts can get off the mark over hurdles in the 2.20.

Today’s picture is by kind permission of the artist Susan Shaw.

Diary: December 29 2009

I will stick with Cooldine to get the better of Joncol in the Lexus Chase tomorrow with Cloudy Lane and perhaps Money Trix the each way value. Elsewhere on the Leopardstown card I am hoping that Solwhit can come back from his defeat in the Fighting Fifth to win the 2.00.

Other selections at Leopardstown; 12.30 – Liss Na Tintri (ew); 2.30 – Jessies Dream; Limerick 12.10; Ballyburke.

At Newbury I fancy Dave’s Dream in the 12.00 where Den of Iniquity could run well at a decent price.

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Quantitativeeasing looks something of a banker in the 1.30. He was most impressive when winning at Newcastle last month.

The 2.05 sees an intriguing clash between Finian’s Rainbow, Manyriverstocross and Reve De Sivola. The form of Finian’s Rainbow’s win at Newbury last month looks solid and I would just give him the edge.

The Long Walk Hurdle at 2.40 sees reigning World Hurdle Champion take on the fast improving Diamond Harry. Big Bucks sets a very high standard and will be hard to beat. Karaback will be suited by the trip and is not out of it. Big Bucks has to be the likely winner.