Month: September 2010

It is nice when the absolute certainties actually oblige and Rigidity did the job for me at Chester today with some aplomb. He opened at 11/4 and was sent off 6/4 afvourite. My best bit of tipping today though was to get the first two in the Mallard Stakes where Precision Break broke his duck for the season at 20/1 with Jedi (9/1) in second place. Sadly I was way off the mark in the Doncaster Cup where Askar Tau and Darley Sun never landed a blow.

Tomorrow sees the final classic of the season with the St Leger at Doncaster at 3.20. Rewilding clearly has the form to win this having finished 3^rd in the Derby and then gone on to land the Great Voltigeur at York. He has to be the selection even at short odds. As a part owner of Dandino (along with the other 17,999 Elite Racing Club members) I will to hoping he wins. He does have a fair chance of a place at least. Arctic Cosmos is crying out for this trip and along with Oaks winner Snow Fairy should be competing with Dandino for the minor honours.

In the opener at 1.45 Waiter’s Dream the Acomb winner looks to have scope for further improvement and is my preference in a renewal where there si not much to chose between the main protagonists.

The Portland at 2.45 is a cracking handicap. Striking Spirit looked a winner waiting to happen when runner up to a handicap good thing in the Wokingham but then disappointed in the Stewards’ Cup where he only beat two home but he was badly drawn that day. Noble Storm could be fancied on last season’s form while Johannes has come back to a mark only 1 lb higher than when winning at York in May. Tiddlywinks is yet to win on turf but he ran well enough at Ripon last time and is not out of it. Course and distance winner Hogmaneigh won this race two years ago and has the benefit of K Fallon in the saddle while Deacon Blues has been running consistently. He is lightly raced and open to further improvement. There really are plenty with chances but for my selection I will go for Poet’s Place who shaped well when winning at Haydock last month. I would be inclined to have a small saver on Striking Spirit while the other one that I most fear is Quest for Success who has an excellent record at the track.

The William Haggas trained High Standing didn’t get the best of runs at Deauville last time and I am expecting a big run from him in the 3.55 where Shakespearean also has strong claims. In the nursery at 4.25 the recent Yarmouth winner Buthelezi holds Group 1 entries and may be able to defy top weight. Mick Channon’s Arabian Star could run into a place at a big price.

My main fancies in the 5.00 are Wannabe King, Tamaathul and Our Joe Mac but in all three cases their participation depends on the ground. This is an open race and I very much respect the chances of Tamaathul and Our Joe Mac but Wannabe King looked a though a return to form was imminent at Warwick last time and at the odds he looks a fair bet.

Higgy’s Ragazzo is not the most reliable horse in training but if things drop right for him he could go well at a price in the Goodwood 4.05.

At Sandown I like Avertor in the 2.15, Bramshaw in the 3.25 and Funday in the 4.30.

My thanks to the artists Margaret Barrett for the picture of Canon Can the 1997 Doncaster Cup winner and to Sarah Aspinall for her picture of the mile start at Goodwood.

Enjoy the day’s racing.

I don’t have a particularly strong view on the opening race at Doncaster tomorrow, the Flying Childers at 1.45. Face the Problem was looking like a potential top sprinter until his disappointing effort at York last time. At predicted odds of around 10/1 I am going to stay with him, especially as his trainer Barry Hills traditionally does well at the St Leger meeting.

The 2.05 looks quite an open race. Chiberta King appears to have gone off the boil somewhat since winning at Newmarket in May. There could be valid excuses though as he seemed not to stay the 2 miles in the Northumberland Plate while his subsequent run at York was too bad to be true. I wouldn’t write him off just yet, especially as Jimmy Fortune has the ride on won on him on the only other occasion when they teamed up. Hanoverian Baron has served us well this season already winning twice. He did nothing wrong at Sandown last time when runner up to the useful Forte Dei Marmi in the Sunderlands Handicap. He has only gone up 1 lb since then but does tackle this trip for the first time.

Precision Break has been largely out of form this season but posted a more encouraging effort last time out at Chester when he finished 5th. He stays having won over 2 miles and he has won twice before in the month of September so does seem to come to his best at this time of year. Jedi was 3^rd in that Chester race and has generally been running consistently and should be more at home on this flat galloping track rather than the tight Chester circuit. At the odds I am going for Jedi (10/1) and Precision Break (16/1).

In the Doncaster Cup at 2.40 I am going to look for some value. Askar Tau won this race last year but has not run since a poor run at Ascot in April. Ryan Moore is 2 from 4 on him. Askar Tau has never won with an “s” in the going description though so that is something to look out for. The other one I considered was Darley Sun who was runner up in this last season and subsequently won the Cesarewitch. He has not shown his form yet this season but Godolphin has an excellent strike rate at this meeting.

White Moonstone will probably win the 3.15 but I wouldn’t want to play at odds on. Musharakaat may have been beaten by the easier ground at Newmarket last time and I will put him forward as a tentative alternative.

In the 3.50 Citrus Star should give us a run for our money. He hasn’t been punished too severely by the handicapper for his win at Goodwood and he looks the one to beat. Kaptain Kirkup is owned by osteopath Kevin Kirkup who had a winner the other day with Osteopathic Remedy. Kaptain Kirkup started the season well winning at York in May but he was rather clobbered by the assessor as a result. Ryan Moore will be in the plate tomorrow which is a plus but the horse may just be a little too high in the ratings now.

After having to settle for the runners up spot in each of his last 3 outings Bonfire Knight deserves to land a decent prize and his turn may come in the 4.55.

At Chester most of the runners in the 4.45 have questions to answer. The 4 I quite like are Qanoon, Rigidity, Guest Book and Layla’s Dancer. Qanoon and Layla’s Dancer may be helped by a step up in trip for the former and first time blinkers for the latter but for my selection I am going to side with Rigidity. She was beaten a length and a quarter by Dandino back in April at level weights. Dandino is now rated 113 while Rigidity races off a mark of 86 here. If only such wizzo theories worked out in practise! Guest Book had to overcome a bad draw and a long absence from the track when a very creditable 4^th a fortnight ago at Beverley and could be worth a small saver.

Today’s pictures are courtesy of the artist Sue Malkin.  Follow the link to look at her web site.

Sue Malkin

Good luck and see you tomorrow evening for the St Leger preview.

Leviathan was beaten a neck at 8/1 today while Oldjoesaid again ran well despite being given too much to do by his rider and we will have to stick with him I think.

Tomorrow sees the start of the St Leger meeting at Doncaster. Sweet Lightning won well at York last month and is respected in the 2.35. He was ridden by the underrated Tom Eaves on that occasion but I see that Richard Hughes is on board this time. All Sweet Lightning’s turf wins have come on good ground. The stable are going well at present.

Only two clear favourites have won the 3.45 in the last 10 years so it may be worth looking for something at a decent price. Rumoush and Ship’s Biscuit both make some appeal with Rumoush perhaps having the better chance.

In the nursery at 4.20 I a m going for Honeymead. She was disappointing at York last time but may be better than she showed then as she had previously run in a Group 3 at Ascot.

The 5.25 is a wide open sprint where I will take a chance with Roker Park who was runner up at Chester on his last start. He handles any ground and won at Doncaster on his last run on the Town Moor.

At Kempton I will stick with Hamloola in the 8.15 after she gave us a winner at Yarmouth last month. She has already shown she can handle the track.

Today’s picture is by kind permission of the artist Sue Malkin.

I don’t have too many words of wisdom on tomorrow’s racing. At Doncaster course and distance winner Leviathan has ground conditions to suit in the 4.50.

I have been putting Oldjoesaid forward as a possible surprise winner all season and he is yet to repay my faith. One last try in the 5.20 perhaps?

 

 

At Goodwood tomorrow Liberty Cap, blinkered first time, looks a reasonable each way choice in the nursery at 3.10.

Longliner has been expensive to follow but may well come good in the 4.20. His price does look a tad skinny however.

At Lingfield Sleeping Wolf is dropped in class in the 2.10. In the 4.20 Hajjaan is an interesting runner. He made a promising debut in a back end maiden last October and if fully would up after a 10 month absence would be the form pick. Traffic Sister, a full sister to Traffic Guard, showed some promise on her debut at Newbury and could go well at a big price in the 5.40.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Maura Clarke

 

I was going to put up Cityscape for the 2.00 at Haydock but his participation is in doubt because of the going. He is best with some ease in the ground but with a dry day forecast in Lancashire he may miss the race. In the circumstances I will bring on Desert Myth as my sub.  He ran well at Goodwood last time I thought and there may be more to come.

It does look a tricky day all round from a betting aspect and the 2.30 is a wide open affair. Anglezarke showed signs of a return to form last time and is one possibility while Archers Road is a tough sort and has a good draw.

Starspangledbanner should win the 3.35. His main rival looks to be Regal Parade but the drying ground won’t help his cause. If there is to be a surprise Lady of the Desert or perhaps Our Jonathon might supply it.

The consistent Tuscan Gold can get back to winning ways in the 4.20 at Kempton while Primeaval is only 3 lbs higher than when winning over course and distance earlier in the season and could go well at a price in the 5.25.

At Thirsk the track could suit the front running style of Green Lightning in the Hambleton Cup at 2.55. In the 4.05 I see that stable jockey Paul Hannigan rides Aquarian Spirit for the first time for over a year which might be significant.

At Leopardstown Music Show has the form in the 2.40 but at a bigger price Spacious could be worth an interest. In the 3.45 I fancy Rip Van Winkle to confirm the Juddmonte form with Twice Over.

My only selection at Wolverhampton is Kenyan Cat in the 9.20.

At York on Sunday Jo’burg is dropped in class in the 3.10. Mistoffelees looks to be on an upward curve and the handicapper may not have caught up with him yet. He is my selection in the 5.20 where Royal Trooper could be the danger.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Ruth Buchanan.

 

Well, we had mixed fortunes today but we did manage a winner thanks to Bollin Judith who hacked up at Redcar where she is becoming something of a course specialist.  La De Two only went down by a head and is one to keep on the right side while Inimitable Romanee put in a performance full of promise at Salisbury and should be winning soon.  Don’t be surprised to see this one running over a mile next.

Tomorrow I am hoping that Lombok can get his head in front in the 8.45 at Kempton after a couple of second place efforts.

Although neither of today’s selections managed to win both Azaday and Bramshaw ran well and are worth keeping in mind next time they run.

In the 1.30 at Redcar tomorrow Bollin Judith seems to have quite a lot in her favour. She is a course and distance winner, acts on the ground, is racing over what looks to be her optimum trip, she has come down the weights a little and she ran with some promise on her last start.

Loden is an interesting runner in the 1.40 at Salisbury. He didn’t show a great deal as a 2 year old but is the type to do better at 3. He runs over a mile tomorrow which may be on the sharp side given his pedigree. He is one to keep tabs on though.

Inimitable Romance makes her racecourse debut in the 2.40. There have been some god reports about this filly and she certainly has possibilities on pedigree. She may want a bit further than this in time. Keep an eye on her though.

My nap of the day is La De Two in the 5.30. He was second to Kite Wood with Monitor Closely 3^rd on his debut as a juvenile and he has continued to show a progressive profile winning both his starts since then.

Today’s picture is by kind permission of the artist Susan Shaw.