Month: June 2008

 

I only have time for a quick look at Thursday’s action. I tipped Michita for the Oaks but she didn’t seem to handle the track at Epsom. She looks the obvious choice in the Ribblesdale at 3.05, but favourites do have a poor record in the race. There are several runners from my list to follow involved in this notably Arthur’s Girl, Cape Amber and Dar Re Mi. Cape Amber would perhaps have the best chance of the 3.

It has not paid to oppose Aiden O’Brien’s runners this week and Yeats will be a warm order for the Gold Cup at 3.45. Coastal Path would be my suggestion as a viable alternative.

Recent Doncaster winner Redford is my main fancy for the 4.20. At bigger prices Throne of Power, Perks and Lazy Days have each way chances.

In the 4.55 I like the chances of the stable companions Kensington Oval and Dr Faustus. Ryan Moore has chosen to ride the former so I think I will have to go along with him.

In the 5.30 I am hoping that Missioner and Colony will give me a run for my money.

I thought above The Fifth Member in the 8.20 at Leicester. He has been dropped a couple of pounds in the weights and should be fitter for a couple of recent runs. It is a pity that there are only 7 runners so we wouldn’t get 3 places each way.

Old Caribbean Coral runs in a claimer in the 3.20 at Ripon. He must have a chance in this company although most of his wins have come at the minimum trip.

Smarterthanuthink won at Hamilton recently and could go in again in the 4.35.

Finally, Plane Painter would be my suggestion for the 3.30 at Warwick.

Picture by courtesy of artist Jo Stockdale.

 

Day 2 of the Royal meeting opens with the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at 2.30 where I quite like the chances of Calming Influence. The Godolphin colt needs to step on his previous runs but this is only his 3^rd start so further improvement is on the cards. He won a listed race at Newmarket last month, beating Free Handicap winner Stimulation, who had the benefit of a previous run. Stimulation is again in opposition and is a tough sort who should not be ignored. Of the rest Royal Confidence was behind Stimulation in the Free Handicap and is worse off at the weights. Beacon Lodge has been disappointing this season but Jupiter Pluvius might be worth a look. He was well fancied for classic success at the start of the season but suffered a training setback. Although he could only finish 4^th of 5 in the Irish 2,000 Guineas he could well come on a good deal for that run. I will stick with Calming Influence although I certainly wouldn’t rule out Jupiter Pluvius.

The Prince of Wales Stakes at 3.45 looks to be between Duke of Marmalade, Literato, Ask, Phoenix Tower and Pipedreamer. Duke of Marmalade is the obvious choice as he is a dual Group 1 winner and was a neck second in this race last year. He is the most likely winner but is a short price. Literato would be a serious contender on his form last season when he won the Champion Stakes and was runner up in the French Derby. His form this season has not been up to much but it would not be such a big surprise if he returned to form here. More of a concern might be the ground as he probably would not want it too firm. Last season’s Cambridgeshire winner Pipedreamer has run with credit in a couple of Group 3 races this season. He handles the ground but he will need to step up on previous from to win this.

Phoenix Tower narrowly beat Pipedreamer at Newmarket and then lost his unbeaten record when 2^nd in the Lockinge. Ask is a high class colt but he has never won in a field of more than 8 runners and there is a suspicion that he might be best over further. Gun to head time I would have to say that Duke of Marmalade has the best form but his price is too short. Phoenix Tower could go well, at a better price while Literato is over proved at 20/1.

The Royal Hunt Cup ought to go to the very well handicapped Bankable who has more ticks than boxes. He is going to go off at a very skinny price in such a competitive handicap and any value has gone. Lang Shining has claims on the basis of his win in the Newbury Spring Mile, but that was on soft ground. If he handles the ground he would be a major contender. Oceana Gold will handle the fast ground and comes from an in form stable. Docofthebay was runner up to Pipedreamer in the Cambridgeshire only getting 4 lbs and the winner is now competing at Group class. He acts on the ground and has a good draw. Another well drawn is Diamond Tycoon who has only had 6 runs. When he won his maiden last season he had Lucano and Pipedreamer behind. Dream Lodge is something of a favourite of mine. His last run at Epsom can be ignored as he lost a shoe but more of a concern could be the going. Crocodile Bay won a 4 runner race at Beverley earlier in the season but doesn’t look good enough in this company. We’ll Come has only been out of the first 4 once in his career and has consistent form in big field handicaps.

In summary Bankable would have to be the most likely winner. We’ll Come could easily make the frame while at 25/1 Oceana Gold is over priced.

There are 3 runners from our list to follow in the 5.30. Cruel Sea is preferred to Amanjena and Tathkaar.

At Kempton Albarouche and Basanti are the two that make the most appeal in the 6.45, while Martyr looks reasonably handicapped in the 7.15.

See you tomorrow.

 

Well, Swop was a winning tip today, coming in at 9/4 at Doncaster. Monday looks a tricky day. Piverina is certainly nothing special but started favourite a couple of runs ago so must have shown something to somebody! She has dropped down to a mark of only 52 and that might enable her to get into contention in the 4.15 at Carlisle. Piverina is with Julie Camacho and another from the same yard is Pegasus Prince. This one is related to various winners in Latin America and has won 3 of his last 4 starts, all at Southwell. He has a turf pedigree but has seemed less effective on that surface thus far. He is upped inn trip in the 5.15 at Carlisle but strictly on what we can glean from his pedigree you would think he was an obvious stayer. He won easily enough over 12 furlongs on his last start though and he is an interesting runner. Tom Eaves has the ride.

I has Cecily (pictured below) down as a sure fire winner based on her pedigree but she didn’t show a lot on her racecourse debut. This filly by Oasis Dream might be worth another chance in the 7.10 at Warwick.

Gallantry was only beaten a short head at Chester last time out and this course and distance winner looks the one to beat in the 8.10 at Warwick.

In the 7.30 at Windsor One Cool Quest makes his debut. He is a half brother to the multiple winner of a few seasons ago, Macaw, and is by the new sire One Cool Cat. Speed Ticket only had one run last season but ran with promise when 3^rd at Kempton. He makes his seasonal reappearance in the 8.30.

Moving on to Tuesday and Royal Ascot I will start with the 2.30. Horses that were beaten in the Lockinge are often worth noting in this race and Tariq, who was 3^rd at Newbury, is the one I like in this. He didn’t entirely get the run of the race in the Lockinge, but likes fast ground and has won at Ascot before.

The Australian raiders look likely to dominate the King’s Stand at 3.05. If there is to be a home based winner it could be Kingsgate Native (pictured below). In any event it will be fascinating to see how he gets on as a 3 year old.

It is hard to see past Henrythenavigator in the 3.45. Raven’s Pass, Twice Over and Rio de la Plata represent our list to follow and look like competing for the minor placings.

Four year olds have won 7 of the last 10 runnings of the 4.55. Bukit Tinggi and Basalt who were first and second at York would be the two that most interest me. I see that Waverley runs here having been off the track since September 2005. He was a Royal Ascot winner back in 2003 when he won the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes.

At Thirsk Shanafarahan represents our list to follow in the 3.25.

Bye for now

Pictures by kind permission of British 2YO Racing

 

Having been away for a week I have had some catching up to do today looking back at the racing over the last 8 days.

Jim Bolger hasn’t proved too popular with the British Press of late but I don’t suppose he will lose too much sleep over that. I wasn’t convinced that his New Approach would stay the Derby trip but of course he did, winning an epic struggle with Tartan Bearer in the process. Tartan Bearer is a rapidly improving colt though and there are big races to be won with him as the season progresses. Saturday was not a bad day on the tipping front at Epsom, thanks to Conduit (11/8), Lady Gloria (7/1) and Holbeck Ghyll (15/2).

Elsewhere on Saturday Redford gave my list to follow an 8/1 win at Doncaster, ridden by Hayley Turner, while Navajo Joe won the mile maiden at Lingfield justifying favouritism.

Zarkava produced another breathtaking display to win the Prix de Diane on Sunday. She is an outstanding filly and undoubtedly the best of her age group in Europe.

The 10 furlong handicap at Pontefract on Monday saw an intriguing finish between the game galloper Missioner and the talented but perhaps quirky Formation. The latter was finessed home by Jamie Spencer but both will be interesting in future races.

At Redcar on Tuesday Kiwi Bay was an easy winner for Michael Dods. He was not winning out of turn as he has been running well all season. Party in the Park (pictured below) was second.

Patthepainter is a horse I have been keeping tabs on and he came good in first rime blinkers at Beverley on Wednesday. He made most of the running and actually fought back to lead again when headed a furlong out. In the evening meeting at Kempton Unleashed made it 2 from 3 starts and continues to go the right way. The in form Ted Durcan rode the winner. The horse to take out of the race might be General Ting who managed to finish 3^rd despite running very green and not steering anything like a straight course.

There are a couple of horses to take out of the maiden at Nottingham on Wednesday over an extended mile. The Barry Hills trained Tourist (pictured below) got up to score a narrow victory. He has plenty of size and scope and there should be more to come. In 5^th place I thought that Ascot Lime ran a promising race.

On Thursday Rosa Grace (pictured below) was a deserved winner on the listed race. She met all sorts of trouble in running but when Chris Catlin managed to extricate himself from the pack she picked up well to cut down the consistent Melodramatic.

Friday the 13^th was certainly not an unlucky day for my list to follow as Mountain Pride (pictured below) gave me a 20/1 winner, while moving on to Saturday sprinter Corrybrough continues to impress and completed his hat trick at Sandown.

Tonight Majeen represents our list to follow in the 9.15 at Leicester. Certainly in with an each way chance although I am not sure of his ability to handle fast ground.

Tomorrow I see that the lightly raced Swop is in action in the 2.20 at Doncaster. This 5 year old has only had 2 career starts and may be a blot on the handicap.

In the 3.25 Mastership will appreciate the fast ground while Kashimin might be another to consider.

Fantastic Lass may not have taken to the all weather on her last run. She could do better in the 4.00 at Doncaster.

Pictures by kind permission of British 2YO Racing

I should have stuck with the horses from my list to follow in The Oaks as Look Here, Clowance and Cape Amber were 1^st, 4^th and 6^th respectively.

The Epsom Derby card tomorrow kicks off with a Heritage Handicap at 1.40 over 10 furlongs. Conduit is one of my fancies for this. On his last outing he was 3^rd behind his stable companion Colony at Sandown when he was staying on at the finish. He has gone up 5 lbs for that but still looks potentially well handicapped although I am a bit surprised that he is being kept to a mile and a quarter as he looked at Sandown as though he would benefit from further. Sir Michael Stoute has won this race twice in the last 4 years and Conduit has to be a serious contender. The other one I like is the Montjeu colt First Avenue who is trained by Michael Jarvis. With only 3 runs in his career First Avenue is open to improvement. He was 3^rd at Windsor on good to firm ground last month but being by Montjeu he is likely to be better suited with some give, which hopefully he will get at Epsom.

Another that will appreciate some juice in the ground is Lady Gloria in the 2.40. She was runner up to Royal Hunt Cup favourite Bankable last month which was no disgrace and she gets on well with her pilot Tom Queally.

The “Dash” at 3.15 will take some solving. Hogmaneigh won it last year and is only 1 lb higher in the weights. He does need some luck in running though and I don’t think I would take him to follow up. The David Nicholls pair of Tournedos and Masta Plasta both come here on the back of wins and both carry 4 lbs penalties. Of the pair I prefer Masta Plasta. He is likely to be ridden prominently by Adele Rothery. Hereford Boy is another I considered but for my selection I am going for Holbeck Ghyll who was 4^th last season and comes here on the back of a decent second at Newbury. He had earlier beaten the subsequent dual winner Valery Borzov at Kempton.

And so to the Derby at 4.00, which looks one of the most open for years. Two of the best trials for the race are the Dante at York and the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. Tartan Bearer won the Dante by a head from Frozen Fire and both run in the Derby. Being a full brother to Golan Tartan Bearer should have no problem with the trip and he should also go on the ground. He has only had 3 runs in his career so is open to improvement and he has also shown a willing attitude.

Casual Conquest has only had 2 career starts winning them both. He slammed odds on favourite Washing Irvine in the Derrinstown and the manner of his victory impressed many good judges.

New Approach possibly has the best form in the race having finished 2^nd in both the English and Irish Guineas. He certainly has the class but there is a doubt about his stamina and perhaps also his ability to handle the preliminaries. It is always worth considering Chester form when looking at the Derby and Tajaweed put himself in the picture when beating subsequent winner Unnefer in the Dee Stakes. He shapes as though a mile and a half should suit and he is a lively outsider.

Curtain Call didn’t run in any of the recognised trials but won a small race at Nottingham easily enough. He us bred to get a mile and a half and his trainer has won the race twice before. None of the Aiden O’Brien horses really appeal. Alessandro Volta won the Lingfield Trial on fast ground without really handling the track, while King of Rome, who was second that day is the chosen ride of Johnny Murtagh. Of the rest Kandahar Run and Rio De La Plata are not sure to stay.

My idea of the first 3 would be Casual Conquest, Tartan Bearer and Tajaaweed.

The ultra consistent Birkside runs in the 4.45. He is in stall 10 which has supplied the winner in 2 of the last 4 seasons.

Sprint king Dandy Nicholls is well represented in the 5.20 where his Joseph Henry looks worth an interest.

Rossini’s Dancer was a losing favourite at Newcastle on his last run but there appeared to be something amiss that day and we might be able to ignore the run. He has previously put up a much better effort when 2^nd at Beverley and he could be worth another chance in the Musselburgh 4.35.

On Sunday there is no obvious reason for supporting Iron Cross in the Southwell 3.40 but any market move for him would be worth noting.

Pictures by kind permission of Ann Duffield Racing

 

Smarterthanuthink ended a mini losing run for my selection by making all at Hamilton, while we also had a winner at Sandown’s evening meeting thanks to Kensington Oval.  The latter shaped like a very promising colt on his racecourse debut.

The main attraction tomorrow is of course the Oaks Epsom (4.05) . Lush Lashes was a most impressive winner of the Musidora and was not stopping at the finish. He is a worthy favourite and it would not surprise me greatly if he were to win. Although Cape Amber was beaten 5 lengths when runner up to Lush Lashes it was her seasonal debut and she had earlier suffered a training interruption. She can be expected to come on for that run. Michita won the Height of Fashion Stakes at Goodwood which in the past has been a fair guide to the Oaks. Clowance has won her last 2 starts and Frankie Dettori replaced the usual pilot, Steve Drowne. Aiden O’Brien has won 3 of the last 10 runnings so his challenger Adored has to be considered. She won a Group 3 at Naas in mid May but I am not sure that the form is strong enough to win an Oaks. The unbeaten Chinese White has the pedigree to win an Oaks. She would have to step up considerably on what she has done so far but it is not impossible that she may do so. Katiyra was 2^nd to the subsequent Irish Guineas 3^rd Carribean Sunset over a mile at Leopardstown. She was staying on well at the finish and this longer trip should be to her liking. Her trainer John Oxx is a very shrewd operator and has his string in good form. Look Here didn’t get an entirely trouble free passage when 2^nd in the Lingfield Trial and is a lively outsider.

The way that I view this race is that it looks to be between the three pronged Irish Challenge of Lush Lashes, Katiyra and Chinese White, against the UK trio of Cape Amber, Clowance and Michita. Lush Lashes is rather a short price as there is just a slight stamina doubt. . Michita could be the each way value at 10/1.

It is hard to get away from Getaway in the Coronation Cup at 3.25 after his win in the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket and he would be my selection.

Charlie Tokyo is at his best when the mud is flying and would be one to look out for in the 2.10 if getting his ground. Dream Lodge put in a good run at Chester last time out and he could also go well in this.

Film Maker represents our list to follow in the 4.50 and has an each way chance at around 8/1.

At Bath there are good reports about Barry Hill’s Majestic Lady in the 6.25, while Peruvian Prince, who narrowly failed at York the other day, can gain compensation in the Doncaster 7.40.

Trip the Light runs under a penalty6 in the 8.15 at Doncaster. He won a small race at Redcar last time over 14 furlongs. He drops down to a mile and a half here but may still be competitive.

Sagara was 3^rd in the Arc last season and looks the sort to improve with age. He looks the one to be on in the 7.20 at Goodwood although Speed Gifted, whatever he does tomorrow also looks one to keep on the right side.

Back at Bath I fancy top weight Sweet Afton in the 8.35.

Picture by kind permission of Lisa Miller – equestrian artist (see links)

 

 

Winners have been a bit sparse of late but we live in hope!

When Smarterthanuthink ran at Thirsk last month he was a very well supported favourite but could only finish 6^th of 16. He runs over an extra 3 furlongs in the 4.10 at Hamilton tomorrow and might be worth another chance.

Down at Lingfield Green Beret makes his debut in the 2.50. He is a half brother to the sprinter Tax Free.

Glasshoughton won on his only previous visit to Sandown and looks interesting in the 6.45 at the Esher track. In the 8.25 Kensington Oval makes his debut. He is a full brother to the high class Ask.

 

Photograph by kind permission of Mark Usher Racing

 

There are 4 meetings tomorrow assuming Nottingham goes ahead.

Tropical Strait was a good second at Salisbury a month ago and should go well in the 7.10 at Kempton. The listed sprint at 7.40 looks quite an open race. I thought that Green Manalishi put in an encouraging display behind Fyador at Haydock and is sure to come on for that. Galeota is another to consider at this level. He gets on well with Ryan Moore and is certainly one for the shortlist. The other one I like is the consistent Rowe Park who has an impressive record at this trip on an artificial surface. I would just give him the edge.

Game Park was 3^rd at Newmarket last time out and might have improved his position had he steered a straight course. At around 10/1 he looks a fair each way chance in the 8.40.

Basanti only had one run last season when 7^th in a Newmarket maiden. That was over 7 furlongs and he now tackles a mile and a quarter in the Lingfield 4.50.

Another that might be suited by a longer trip is Aleatricic in the 3.20.

Mrs Kipling and Majestic Lady are likely types in the Nottingham 2.10 while in the 4.10 Army of Angels will handle plenty of give and looks the one to beat. Dream Lodge is a bit of a favourite of mine but has plenty to find at the weights.

In the 4.10 Falconry looks quite well treated.

In the 8.20 at Ripon Crocodile Bay and Moheebb represent our list to follow and both have an each way chance.

Wood Chorus has been a beaten odds on favourite on her last 2 starts. She clearly has a good chance on the form book in the Ripon 9.20 but she is not one to take a very short price about.

Picture by kind permission of  Lisa Miller (see links).