Month: March 2008

 

The flat gets under way tomorrow with the traditional pipe opener at Doncaster.

I see that Minority Report has moved to Dandy Nicholl’s yard.  Nicholls does well with his "signings" from other yards and this horse has shown plenty of ability winning 4 times. His wins have come on fast ground though so that may be important to him.  He carries top weight but has a useful apprentice taking off 7 lbs.

The 3.25 has been a poor race for favourites in recent times with only 2 winning in the last 10 years. The consistent Tax Free is one to consider in this.  He won on his only previous visit to Doncaster but is giving weight to all his rivals bar one. Advanced won the Ayr Gold Cup last season but is none too consistent. Knot in Wood ran some good races last season but I see that Paul Hannigan has chosen to ride Utmost Respect and he gets my selection. He won the Ayr Silver Cup with some ease last season and looks to be on an upward curve.

Amanjena showed some promise in her two runs last season and is one to watch in the 4.35.

Up at Carlisle there are some old favourites in the 3.40.  Rebel Rhythm, Strong Resolve, Huka Lodge and  King Killone have all featured in these pages in recent years.  Huka Lodge is a course and distance winner and revels in the mud.  He is on a high mark though.  Rebel Rhythm is well handicapped if he could recapture the form of a few years ago.

In the 5.25 The Bajan Bandit looks to continue his winning form in hunter chases.  He should win again but may be less effective away from his beloved Ayr.  Of the rest Grattan Lodge has a good record at Carlisle.

At Haydock in the 2.30 Dictum, Planet of Sound and Border Tale are of interest.  Dictum likes plenty of give in the ground and would be worth a close look if getting his ground.  Border Tale has been running well but as a result getting little respite from the handicapper.  Planet of Sound is lightly raced and should go close.

In the 5.20 The Sawyer looks the likely winner while in the 4.40 at Newton Abbot I would be interested in Master Overseer.

See you tomorrow.

 

It hasn’t been a bad week thus far for the runners mentioned in my previews.

Looking forward to tomorrow I wondered about Corran Ard in the 4.30 at Ludlow.  Trainer Evan Williams does well at the Shropshire track and the horse had some good form over hurdles last season before suffering a setback.

 

Today’s selection Trigger the Light maintained his 100% record over fences today, while Theatre Diva was also a winner from our list to follow.

Not much catches my eye tomorrow.  Both One Sniff and Fourty Acers have shown ability previously and return after lengthy lay offs in the 4.35 at Market Rasen.  The market might be a guide to their chances.

 

Not much to talk about tomorrow.  Trigger the Light looks the one to beat in the 2.40 at Warwick.  He has not been out since winning at the end of November at Kempton but is well regarded by connections and provided that the absence has not been due to an injury he should win.

 

There isn’t much of interest at Taunton tomorrow so perhaps this is a good time to reflect on the events of last week at Cheltenham.

Day 1 went OK on the tipping front with Tidal Bay romping home in the Arkle at 6/1 (If you want to back Noland I certainly wouldn’t put you off but I am going to give a narrow preference for Tidal Bay, especially as Howard Johnson’s horses have been running better recently.)

Garde Champetre was a comfortable winner of the Cross Country (Wonderkid would be my selection unless the ground rides on the soft side when the other two would be preferred. Garde Champetre looks dangerously well handicapped.)

An Accordion won the William Hill Trophy (An Accordion looks the obvious choice here and he may well win )

On a general point you had to admire the gutsy win of little Katchit in the Champion Hurdle who held on in determine fashion to repel a renewed challenge from Osana.

On the Thursday I was pleased with my preview of the opener.

(Over The Creek and Beantown would be my main fancies with Old Benny and Back on Line each way shots) – the actual finishing order was Old Benny, Over the Creek, Back on Line.

There were plenty of winning tips: Albertas Run (Albertas Run should finish in front of his rival again so I will go for him), Master Minded ( off the fence then; good ground Voy Por Ustedes, soft ground Master Minded)  Inglis Drever (but Inglis Drever has to be the selection) and best of all High Chimes (I was impressed with High Chimes when he stayed on strongly to take 3^rd behind Cloudy Lane at Haydock in December and he is my suggestion for this)

Day 4 wasn’t bad either. (This could be between Franchoek and Celestial Hero with preference for the former), right horses in the wrong order!

(I have actually backed Junior and Niaid Du Missalot. I was impressed with Kicks For Free when he won he won at Kempton last time out.) These were the first 3. Tiger Cry (Tiger Cry on his best form has a great chance in the Grand Annual)

So all in all it could have been a lot worse.

 

I will let the dust settle a little before commenting on a Cheltenham Festival that very much lived up to expectations.

The next big occasion over the jumps will of course be the Aintree Grand National meeting. The runner up at last year’s National, McKelvey has his last prep run over hurdles tomorrow in the Newcastle 3.55. It will be interesting to see how he goes but my tip for that race is Great Approach.  He was 3rd to Ballyfitz at Haydock on his last outing and that horse went on to win at Cheltenham this week.

The Real Deal left previous chase form well behind when jumping like a bunny to win at Haydock last month.  I am hoping that he can follow up in the 2.20 at Uttoxeter.  Paul Nicholls saddles Michael Muck in the same race.  He has disappointed since winning at Chepstow in October but now that he is reunited with Ruby Walsh he could be the one to give the selection most to do.

Uttoxeter stage their own "National" tomorrow, The Midlands version.  Blue Splash is the only runner from our list to follow.  He is yet to win over fences this season but has come down the weights a bit as a consequence.  He has an each way chance.

In the 4.05 our list to follow is represented by Ouzbeck who is a course winner but may have too much weight.

Day 4

Once again I will concentrate on the races actually scheduled for today.  Those races being rerun as a result of Wednesday’s abandonment were previewed in the bulletin for day 2.

12.30 David Nicholson Mares Only Hurdle (2m 4f 110y)

The 9 year olds Refinement and Sweet Kiln have solid credentials here.  Refinement has quite a good record at Cheltenham and also seems to come to hand at around this time of year.  She won a Grade 1 hurdle at Punchestown last April and has won once this season, in a decent mare’s only listed race at Kempton at the end of November.  She gets on very well with AP McCoy and looks to have an outstanding chance.  Sweet Kiln is a tough Irish mare who has not finished out of the front two in any of her last 10 races. She handles any ground and has to be one for the shortlist. 

Of the younger brigade Theatre Girl makes most appeal.  She will only be having her 4th start over timber and she is yet to finish out of the first two.  She had previously run well in bumpers, finishing runner up to Turbo Lynn at Aintree and that horse went on to win the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks on the flat. Those would be the trio that I  would concentrate on in this race.  Of the rest Gaspara won at the Festival last season and I always like previous festival form.  Also of course the Pipe yard are not in bad form.

2.15 JCB Triumph Hurdle (2m 1f)

Franchoek has done nothing wrong and sets the standard here.  He hurdles well, stays and has a good attitude.  In fact to some extent he seems too good to be true and I just wonder if he could be susceptible to something that does him for toe in the finish.  Celestial Halo is the obvious danger.  He was 7th in the St Leger and has shown enough in his two starts over hurdles to put him firmly in the picture.  He should appreciate the track and is said to prefer some cut in the ground.  These would be my two against the field and I am going to give a preference for Franchoek as he is a horse I have always liked from his days on the flat.  I hope he wins. 

If you are looking for something at a bigger price then the consistent Serabad could be for you.  He has been beaten by Franchoek twice but has never run a bad race and comes here on the back of a win at Haydock. The other one I would give a mention to is Songe trained by Charlie Longsden.  This one has won his last 2 races and had good form both on the flat and over hurdles in France before coming to the UK.

This could be between Franchoek and Celestial Hero with preference for the former.  Franchoek had Ashkazar back in 4th when winning at Chepstow at Christmas and that form has been boosted since.  Serabad would be my each way choice.

2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (3m)

The North has a good chance in this with the Nicky Richards trained Middleton Dene.  He ran really well when a close-up fourth in the Sidney Banks on his first run since October when he blew up but was still only beaten 2l giving weight away to two of the three ahead of him. He will improve for the step up to 3miles, he won at the course earlier in the season and has been aimed at this race all season.

Sound Accord is a half brother to Wild Cane Ridge and stays well.  He is an improving sort who was 2nd to Tazbar on his last start.  He did have a hard race that day though and it could have left its mark.  Lodge Lane is a talented if slightly quirky individual who has won both his novice hurdles this season.  A dual bumper winner he will not lack for help from the saddle with Barry Geraghty in the plate. Paul Nicholls is represented by The Tother One who is unbeaten in 5 career starts ridden by Sam Thomas each time. Two bigger priced horses you could look at are Nenuphar Collonges and Siegemaster.

If the ground were to ride soft I would go with Lodge Lane and The Tother One with Middleton Dene preferred on firmer ground.

3.30 totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m 2f 110y)

So much has been said and written about the long awaited clash between Kauto Star and Denman that there is not much I can add.  Kauto Star is rated as the equal 6th highest rated steeplechaser of all time and his rating would have won the last 40 Gold Cups.  Clearly Denman would have to be a hell of a horse to beat him but of then perhaps Denman is a hell of a horse!
I know you can point to the fact that Kauto Star has earned his rating by beating doubtful stayers and it is possible that Denman will just blow them all away from the front in the way that Master Minded broke his opponents hearts in the Champion Chase today.  Only a fool would be too dogmatic about the outcome of this clash but I will stay with Kauto Star who has the form in the book.

Of the rest Neptune Collonges should run well.  He is only 7 and still improving.  Halcon Generlardais stays well and he is another than could challenge for a place especially in soft testing conditions.  I could also see Knowhere running on though beaten horses to grab 3rd.

4.05 Christie’s Foxhunter Chase (3m 2f 110y)

Drombeag won this last season and should be on the premises again.  Paul Nicholls looks to have a good chance with Lou Du Moulin Mas who is ridden by the very capable Tom Greenall. Nicholls has trained the winner 2 out of the last 4 years.

Man from Highworth and Bon accord are the others that make most appeal.  These 4 would be my “panel.”

4.35 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase (2m 110y)

Tiger Cry on his best form has a great chance in the Grand Annual. His best two career runs have been on decent ground at Cheltenham and Arthur Moore knows more about handicapping horses than most people.

Nicky Henderson will be keen to win this race named after his father.  I see that stable jockey Mick Fitzgerald has elected to ride My Petra and that could be a pointer.  Another from the Henderson yard, Crozan is one for the shortlist. He goes well fresh and has had a 3 month break and a fast run 2 miles should be just his bag of oats.  Barry Geraghty rides. Andreas won this last year but has gone up 11 lbs since then which will make his task more difficult.

My Petra sneaks in here with a light weight and ticks most of the right boxes.  He gets my selection and  would certainly be a popular winner.

5.45 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle (2m 1f)

I would respect the Irish challenge in this with Wanango and Phycho while George Moore knows the time of day in handicap hurdles and he saddles Mon Michel.  Paul Nicholls has a good record in this race and I see that Ruby Walsh rides I’msingingtheblues.

Good luck

Day 3

I will ignore the races being rerun from Day 2 as these were previewed in last night’s bulletin. One thing I would say is to take account of any changes to the going when making your selections.

1.40 Jewson Novices’ Handicap Chase (2m 5f)

This looks an open race (am I saying that too often?).  I am going to start with the Irish challenge with both Finger on the Pulse and Ambobo having claims.  Finger on the Pulse is still a maiden over fences but on his latest run he came second to the highly rated Glencove Marina at Leopardstown.  He won 4 times over hurdles and though he can be a chancy jumper he goes well for Barry Geraghty. He is probably best on soft ground.  Ambobo was a classy hurdler and in fact won a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham in 2005 when trained in France.  He jumped well when winning a beginners chase at Naas on his last start and is one for any shortlist.

As usual Paul Nicholls has a strong ahd in this with Dear Villez the choice of Ruby Walsh.  Dear Villez has won his last two starts over fences and the stable seem keen on his chances.  He appears to handle any ground.  Arturio will be ridden by Sam Thomas.  He won over course and distance in January but has gone up a fair bit in the weights as a result. Barber’s Shop beat Silverburn in a bumper on his racecourse debut and has been progressing over fences, winning at Kempton on his latest outing.  Incidentally, he is owned by The Queen.  The other one I like is Mr Strachan.  On his chase bow he ran with great credit behind L’Antartique in a 3 runner affair at Carlisle and then got to within 4 lengths of Arkle winner Tidal Bay. At Christmas he beat Kruguyrova which again is very solid form.

I don’t have a strong view on this one really but would try a small each way on Mr Strachan.

2.55 Ryanair Chase (2m 5f)

Our Vic is a talented but enigmatic character. He has run at the last 4 festivals without winning so I am going to pass him up this time. Mossbank looks the right type for this.  He has won twice this season and chased home the formidable Denman in the Lexus Chase.  He has a break since then and this trip should be ideal for him.  There is perhaps just a slight question mark over his resolution should he get into a battle up the hill. He goes well fresh and gets on well with his jockey Davy Russell.  He finished just in front of The Listener in the Lexus.  The Listener has since won the Irish Hennessy.  He jumps well stays further than this trip but has a very good record when running at distances below 3 miles.  He is certainly best in soft or heavy ground and it is just a case of whether he can win on drying ground, although he has won at Cheltenham on good to soft.
L’Anartique is the third one to consider.  He won the Paddy Power over course and distance earlier in the season and also won the Jewson at last year’s festival.  There is a doubt over Mossbank when it comes to a fight and I will therefore put forward The Listener and L’Antarique as my two against the field.  If you are looking for an each way then Turko could go well. He handles good ground well and this is probably his trip.  He is an under-rated horse.

3.30 Ladbrokes World Hurdle (3m)

I think you have to go for the excellent Inglis Drever to win this race for the third time.  Blazing Bailey will run his usual game race and should be challenging for the minor honours.  It is interesting though that Choc Thornton has chosen to ride My Way de Solzen, who won this arce two years ago. My Way de Solzen has been very disappointing this season and appears to have lost his way.  At his best though he would have a decent chance.  Kasbah Bliss is probably best on a flat track.

The Market Man and Kazal look the most likely of the outsiders but Inglis Drever has to be the selection.

4.05 Racing Post Plate Handicap Chase (2m 5f)

I have backed Don’t Push It and Bible Lord for this so here’s hoping.  Don’t Push It ran Denman very close in a novice chase a couple of years ago and was going very well in the Arkle last year when falling.  He has not run since winning over hurdles at the start of the season and has had an injury but he has a good record when fresh. Bible Lord seems to have found his ideal trip.  He won  at Leicester last time out beating subsequent winner The Sawyer.  Oedipe is the danger. He has been off the track since Boxing Day 2006 when he was a most impressive winner at Kempton.  I see that Mick Fitzgerald has elected to ride Crozan which could be a pointer.  I will stick with Don’t Push It and Bible Lord though.

4.40 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) (3m)

Robin Du Bois looks like a bit of an Irish “plot” here and it would be no great surprise if he won.  Five year olds don’t have a great record in this race though if you are one for the trends.  The French challenger Onnix won a listed handicap at Auteil but that was on heavy ground.  A couple of home based horses I like are Russian Trigger and Gunner Jack.  Russian Trigger is very lightly raced and has won both his starts this season showing a taking attitude in the process.  He has had a long break and goes well fresh.  Gunner Jack is another without too many miles on the clock with just 4 career starts.  He was only beaten a head in the Haydock qualifier for this race and looks to have scope for improvement.

5.15 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (3m 1f 110y)

I was impressed with High Chimes when he stayed on strongly to take 3rd behind Cloudy Lane at Haydock in December and he is my suggestion for this.  Openide has quite a good record at Cheltenham and he is one to consider as are My Immortal and Noir et Vert.  My immortal’s chance would be helped greatly if the ground rides good.

Good luck