ahorse

Time for one of those “what do you think of ot so far” moments.  

Of the 198 horses on the list to follow 66 have won at least once.  13 have won twice and Warsaw Pact has won 3 times.  Classic Punch has been the best priced winner at 25/1, followed by Blythe Knight at 22/1.  There have been 12 winners at 10/1 or better.  From the small Irish/French list Alexandrova and Shirocco have both won twice.

  

Moving on to Monday’s racing.  Grigorovitch is not the most reliable but I am hoping he will clock up at least one win this season at decent odds to justify his place on the list to follow.  His second last time and the fact that he is a course and distance winner give me reason to hope in the 4.10 at Ayr.

  Down at Windsor in the 6.35 The Jay Factor showed plenty of promise on his debut at Sandown for first year trainer Pat Eddery.  Of the newcomers Pretty Miss looks the pick on pedigree.  

In the 6.55 Cool Customer and Fear to Tread represent out list to follow.  Cool Customer has already won twice but5 there are doubts about the suitability of fast ground.  Fear to Tread on the other hand, a winner at Warwick last time out should handle the ground and is the selection.

  

At Wolverhampton Parks Girl makes some appeal in the 7.40 even though she was last on her debut in a better race.  Bellapais Boy could be the danger.

 

Continue reading “Diary: July 17 2006” →

Friday was a frustrating day for me wth Interpid Jack. Iffraaj and Liberate from the list to follow all coming second.  Our only winner of the day was Sir Mark Presscott’s Warsaw .  In fact Prescott has kept my list in business all week with an amazing run of results.    

Sunday 9 – Prince Picasso won

 

Monday 10 – Alambic won

 

Tuesday 11 – Warsaw Pact won

 

Wenesday 12 – Key Time won (not on my list to follow)

 

Thursday 13 – Alambic won

 

Friday 14 – Warsaw Pact won

  A lot of people place great store by trends in horse racing.  I decided to apply the theory to the 2.00 at Lingfield on Saturday. In the last 7 years the winner has come from stall 1 on 3 occasions.  This time Tom Paris is drawn 1.  During that period Richard Hannon has trained the winner 3 times.  He runs High Style this time.  6 of the last 7 winners have carried 8 stone 12 or more.  Now that excludes the two I have already mentioned but brings in 5 more horses – and there are only 8 runners!  I gave up at that point.  The 3.45 is a fascinating race.  There are two from our list to follow, Elusive Dream and Inchnadamph, as well as Dancing Bay from the Elite Racing Club.  

With Sir Mark Prescott in such fine from you have to give the consistent Elusive Dream every chance.  He stays and has won on the AW. Inchnadamoh won over this trip at Newmarket last season but has not run for 88 days.  There are plenty of contenders, not least Prins Willem and Dorothy’s Friend.  The former runs in the orange colours of the Dutch football team so will be easy to spot if you back him. I can strongly recommend that you use the Racing Post video facility to watch the finish of Prins Willem’s last race where he gets up right on the line.  He is a bit of a specialist in close finishes and dead heated for first in a race a couple of years back.  Dorothy’s Friend has had injury problems and missed all of last season.  A solid 4^th in the Northumberland Plate signalled a return to form last time and this one is certainly a threat. Unleash is a former winner of the Plate but has more recently been running over hurdles and fences.  Freddy is a former classic winner in the Argentine, Odiham can’t be ruled out and Frankie Dettori rides a horse with an Italian name!  Elusive Dream just gets my vote ahead of Prins Willem and Dorothy’s Friend.

  

There are 3 runners from the list to follow in the 4.15.  Cesare and Stronghold were 1^st and 2^nd in the Royal Hunt Cup and that handicap form looks solid as the 4^th and 8^th have both won big races since.  That was handicap form though and this is a Group 3 race.  Echo of Light is our 3^rd runner.  He looked a very difficult ride at times last year but still managed to win twice.  He cost an awful lost of money as a yearling though and could, as the saying goes, be anything.  Tricky race.

   

With the Prescott horses in such fine form I am hopeful about El Alamein (3.25) and Prince Picasso (4.00).

   

In the 8.35 Snark has an each way chance at around 8/1.

  

Mutawaffer has not won since Pontius was a Pilot but he has shown signs of a return to form of late. Not least when a slightly unlucky 2^nd 9 days ago.  He is in with a chance in the 2.10 at York.

  

High Reach (2.45) has been badly out of form since finishing 3^rd to Zowington in April.  Hard to fancy until he shows followers a bit more encouragement.

   I don’t have a great track record in the John Smith’s Cup (3.55) although Far Lane was a winner fro the list to follow in 2003.  We are double handed this year with Star of Light and Public Forum.  Star of Light has surprised me this season running well in all his 4 races.  He should again be to the fore on his favoured ground.  My tip though is the lightly raced Public Forum He has won 3 of his 4 races – but his only failure came when he ran on fast ground so fingers crossed that he acts on the ground here.  Vauquelin looks the form pick in the 4.25.  

Presto Shinko moves into group race class for th first time in the 3.20 at Maisons-Laffitte.

  

Sunday’s qualifiers from the list to follow.

  

Haydock 3.20 Sir Nod

  

Curragh 4.10 (Irish Oaks) – Alexandrova and Scottish Stage.

  

I will be back on Sunday evening.

 

Continue reading “Diary: July 15 & 16 2006” →

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On Thursday we had one short priced winner and 3 seconds.

  Friday’s Newmarket card kicks off with a I mile handicap at 1.30.  There are 3 runners from our list to follow in what looks an open race.  Regal Royale hasn’t won for nearly a year but has tended to meet with traffic problems and deserves to win a race of this sort.  His latest effort was a staying on 5^th at Royal Ascot and on that form he has chances in this.  Giganticus was well down the field in that Ascot race but was badly drawn that day and is better judged on a decent 3^rd at this track over 7 furlongs.  I just have a slight doubt about the trip being ideal for him.  The fourth runner from the list to follow in this race is Superseus who was 8^th in that Ascot handicap behind Sir Gerard.  There seems no good reason why he should reverse the form with Regal Royale.    

My tip here is for Regal Royale.

  

We also have 3 runners in the 2.35.  Zidane would be a topical winner but he has gone up 10 lbs for his last win and does not have a very favourable draw.  Intrepid Jack has not won over this distance so my vote is for Easy Air who finished very strongly in a hot race at Royal Ascot behind Sir Gerard.

  

In the 3.10 Moss Vale, Iffraaj and Balthazaar’s Gift represent the current list to follow, while Quito, Pivotal Point and Gift Horse are from previous year’s lists.  Iffraaj ran quite well last time at Ascot and with the stable showing some signs of form he gets a very tentative each way selection.  He should have his favoured fast ground.

  In the 3.45 Michael Jarvis runs Freedom at Last.  This one may well need the race but on breeding looks an interesting prospect.  Another Michael Jarvis two year old, Ebn Reem should go well in the nursery at 4.20.  I still haven’t given up on Cyclical getting his head in front at a nice price as some stage this season.  He runs in the 8.40 at Chepstow.  

Zomerlust has already won for us earlier in the season.  He runs in the 8.20 at Hamilton but is unlikely to get his favoured ground conditions.

  

Banjo Patterson is the list horse in the 2.55 at Lingfield.  He was last at Pontefract 3 days ago in first time blinkers.  Difficult to fancy on this season’s form.

  

My best bet of the day is Roman Quest in the 3.30.  He has already won for us twice and was really unlucky at Newbury last week when he would have won but for getting boxed in.

  

The recent good run for the list to follow owes much to Sir Mark Prescott who has been turning out winners all over the place.  His Warsaw Pact  seeks to follow up a  win three days ago in the 5.45 at Lingfield.

  

Our list to follow is also represented at Longchamps in the 7.20 with Art Deco and Puerto Rico.  Art Deco was 4^th in the French Derby and goes here with a chance.  He would probably not want the ground too quick.

  

Nidhaal was an encouraging 2^nd at Haydock last time out after coming back from some injury problems.  She should go well in the 2.45 at York.

  We have 3 of the 6 runners in the 4.30.  Cool Customer, Sin City and Liberate.  Sin City was well supported on his seasonal debut but met with trouble in running.  He looks the best of our trio here.

Continue reading “Diary: July 14 2006” →

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Our list to follow is enjoying a successful time of it at the moment and Sant Elena was the latest winner at 12/1 in the 8.24 at Kempton tonight.  It is worth watching the video of this race as the other horse from our list, Greek Renaissance was extremely unlucky.

  

There are 3 runners from our list to follow in the 6 runner Newmarket 1.30.  It looks an open race with Degas Art having the best chance of our runners on the form book. His 4^th in a Group 3 at Royal Ascot puts him in with a good chance in this listed contest.

  

Morghim is held by Degas Art on their running at Ascot while Jadalee needs to find some improvement but that is not out of the question as he is a lightly raced sort.

  

The 2.00 should go to Hoh Mike who was unlucky to lose his unbeaten run in the Norfolk Stakes when he didn’t get a clear run.  Dazed and Amazed has been consistent in a workmanlike fashion and should at least get a place. Narjoo has only run once and could be an improver.  Dubai’s Touch has won his last two starts but has a fair bit to find to get competitive here.

  

Alambic ran away from her field on Monday and as long as she has come out of that race OK a 6 lb penalty seems unlikely to stop her in the Folkestone 4.40.

  

Whispering Death came back to form at Thirsk last time out and he is another that may well be able to shoulder a penalty to victory.  He is my selection in the 4.30 at Warwick.

  

At Wolverhampton I fancy Apollo Five in the 7.10.  He was finishing strongly when he won at Bath and the extra distance here should suit.  Beech Games is an interesting newcomer in this race.

  

I have practically bought Phone In this season. His stable are in cracking form so perhaps he will finally get his head in front in the 7.45.

  

In the 8.15 Mick Channon’s Candyland is my each way suggestion.

  Good luck and see you tomorrow.

Continue reading “Diary: July 13 2006” →

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There is no doubting which is the big race of the day on Wednesday, with a real vintage renewal of the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket (3.10).

  

Soviet Song, bidding to win this for the 3^rd year in a row is likely to start favourite. She showed her well being by landing a Group 2 at Ascot on her last run.  She has 5 Group 1 successes to her name and is likely to be very hard to beat here.

  

Peeress has beaten Soviet Song on two occasions and clearly cannot be ignored.  She was unlucky when 4^th in the Queen Anne when nothing went right for her. Nannina represents the younger generation.  She stormed clear of a high class field to land the Coronation Stakes and should get her favoured fast ground.  There is not much in it between these 3 and I think we have to be conscious of the fact that the younger filly, Nannina may still be improving.  Three year olds have won 6 of the last 10 runnings of this race and I am going to side with Nannina.  It is an intriguing race though and one not to be missed.

  There are some likely looking newcomers in the 3.45.  Gerard Butler’s Jafaru is related to a number of winners and should have no trouble stamina wise over this 7 furlong trip. Henry Cecil has won this race a couple of times in the last 10 years and he saddles Many Volumes. This colt is out of an Oaks winner and is certainly bred for the job.  The other on that takes my eye on breeding is Ed Dunlop’s Maslak who is a half brother to Nidhaal, a smart two year old from last season who won twice including first time out.   In the 7.56 Pineapple Poll is the day’s biggest certainty to achieve a career best run.  So far she has been last of 12 in both her races and this time there are only 11 runners!  

There are two from the list to follow in the 8.24. Sant Elena has been very disappointing and folded very tamely last time out.  Greek Renaissance if preferred after winning a Wolverhampton maiden on her latest outing.

  

The only other runner from the list to follow on Wednesday is Spectral Star in the Lingfield 5.15.

  Good luck

Continue reading “Diary: July 12 2006” →

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I am writing these notes before the evening racing but I see that Alambic was a winner for the list to follow this afternoon.  

There are a couple of runners from the list in the 3.45 at Pontefract.  This is quite an appropriate race for this site as it is the Richard lll Handicap – “a horse, a horse” and all that.  Banjo Patterson has failed to find his form this season and may simply be a little too high in the weights.  Ice Planet has a more obvious chance.  He hasn’t been far away in any of his races this season and will be suited by the fast ground.

  At Wolverhampton we have Wawsaw Pact who is a typical Sir Mark Prescott 3 year old handicapper. We have had a couple of winners from this source over the last 2 days and Warsaw Pact should go close here.

Continue reading “Diary: July 11 2006” →

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The only runner from our list to follow on Sunday was Prince Picasso who won at evens.  I wonder if he looked a picture in the paddock?  

I will start Monday’s preview at Bath where Star Strider is of interest in the 2.15. He went into my notebook as a likely future winner when 4^th last time at this track.  This is his third run in maidens and after this run he will be one to watch out for in nursery handicaps.

  

The 2.45 is a juvenile seller.  Suzieblue, wearing cheekpieces for the first time broke her duck in a similar contest at Chepstow and could well be involved in the finish here.  Fly Time is both owned and trained by Mick Channon.  She is dropped in class but it can sometimes be dangerous to support this type of horse in sellers.  Looks a race to be careful of.

  

Our list to follow has struck a bit of a purple patch in the last few days.  We are represented by Ceredig in the 4.15 but he has not given much cause for optimism so far this term and was last at Sandown on his most recent outing.  You would have to be backing the listers blindly to support him at the moment.

  

There is racing in Scotland at Musselburgh where the 3.00 is an auction maiden.  Sophie’s Dream ran with promise on her initial run at Redcar but failed to build on that start at Carlisle.  There is nothing else in this race that really catches my eye.

  

We have had some success with Sir Mark Prescott’s 3year olds this season, the latest winner coming today via Prince Picasso.  Prescott sends Alambic north for the 3.30.  He was 2^nd here last time out and is weighted to go close.  Might need an extra furlong or two though.

  

The 6.35 at Windsor should be a winning opportunity for Jo’burg who was 5^th in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot.  Of those with previous runs Cheap Street was a bit unlucky last time and Eager Ivor will probably come on for his debut run.  Hughie Morrison saddles a likely newcomer in Sakhee’s Secret, whose half brother Marker won this a few years back.  Jo’burg should be too good though.

  

Conkering was an early season winner for our list to follow back in April but has been sidelined with an injury since.  That win was on soft ground but as long as he can handle a faster surface and has fully recovered from the injury he should go close in the 8.05.

  

I have been reminded that I have not given the answers to a couple of quiz questions I posed last week.  The connection between Just One Look and Green Tambourine is that they were both 60s song titles and Alf Tupper’s nickname was “The tough of the track.”

  See you tomorrow.

Continue reading “Diary: July 10 2006” →

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I have not enjoyed the best of luck of late but Saturday was quite a bonanza for the horses on our list to follow.  We had 6 winners and any number of near things.  Here goes for the roll of honour.

  

David Junior was given a great ride by Jamie Spencer to score a well thought out success in the Eclipse.  The Lancashire Oaks went to Allegretto who stayed on well and clearly gets the 12 furlong trip and is a progressive filly.

  

We had the first 4 home in the Old Newton Cup with Consular gaining a well deserved reward for some consistent efforts.  He was always handy which was probably key.  Ouninpohja did well in second under top weight for what was his 4^th successive 2^nd place. 

  

In the 4.35 at Haydock King Orchisios finally lived up to his reputation making most to just hold on from another of our listers Burning Incense.

  

Hinterland was a Pricewise horse having finished 4^th in the Royal Hunt Cup and could be called the winner some way out in the big handicap at Sandown.  Our other winner was Futun who looked well and truly boxed in but Nicky Mackay was admirably patient on him and when the gap appeared the colt quickened well.

  

Those were the 6 winners from the list to follow.  Benbaun also deserves a mention for his 2^nd in the Group 3 sprint at Sandown. Like Ouninpohja this was four 2nds in a row.

  

We only have one list runner on Sunday and that is at Brighton in the 4.15 where Prince Picasso should give us a run for our money.

  See you tomorrow.

Continue reading “Diary: July 9 2006” →

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I am on a pretty unsuccessful run at the moment, with a lot of the horses from the list to follow getting in the frame but not too many winning.

  The highlight on Saturday is the Eclipse meeting at Sandown. 

The Group 3 sprint that starts the Sandown card at 2.05 has a couple from the list to follow in Reverence and the unlucky Benbaun. Reverence won the Temple Stakes here in May but all his career wins have been when there was some juice in the ground. Benbaun has been runner up in his last 3 outings, is a course and distance winner and acts on fast ground.  He would seem the most likely of our pair on this occasion.

  

We also have two runners in the 2.35.  Hinterland is already a winner this season and last time out was 4^th in the Royal Hunt Cup, albeit from a favourable draw.  My Paris is running off a mark of 101 and his highest winning mark is 98.  He might need a bit of help from the handicapper before he wins again.  By the way he is a half brother to My Line who was a winner on the flat and over hurdles and was (perhaps still is) trained by the Reveleys.

  

Ouija Board will be a popular winner in the Eclipse itself at 3.15.  The main hope from our list to follow is David Junior.  Although he was well beaten by Ouija Board at Royal Ascot there was no pace on that day and a stronger gallop should see Brian Meehan’s colt in a better light.  Our other lister is Aussie Rules who won the French 2,000 guineas.  Johnny Murtagh takes over from Kieren Fallon and although the horse has it to do on the book Aiden O’Brien runners always command respect.

  

The 3.20 at Beverley has some old familiar faces.  Caribbean Coral won the Vodaphone Dash at Epsom in 2004 but has not won for over 2 years now.  Of his 5 career wins 2 have come at 20/1 and he is one of those sprinters that will probably pop up somewhere when no one is looking.  Likes fast ground.  Trojan Flight is another on a long losing runn.  His cause will not be helped by a low draw here.  Bo McGinty won last time out and his stable is in form.  He also has a good draw but to be honest is not one that can be relied upon completely.

  

There is an interesting card at Haydock where we have 2 listers in the 2.20.  Peppertree Lane has already won twice this season but has been rather disappointing on his last 2 runs. His wins have come at a mile on soft ground and he is upped in trip here on faster ground.  Futun is a lightly raced type and just the sort that his trainer does well with.  He won a 10 furlong maiden at Leicester and should stay this trip OK.

  

Allegretto and Innocent Air are our duo in the Lancashire Oaks at 2.50.  Allegretto won a maiden at Chepstow and would need considerable improvement to win this.  But she is very well bred and comes from a stable that must always be respected.  Innocent Air is John Gosden’s runner.  He has won this race twice in the last 3 years.  Innocent Air won a listed race at Newbury last season but disappointed this season on her reappearance on softish ground.  May well do better this time.

  The Old Newton Cup is one of the oldest races on the calendar.  The list to follow is well represented with Signatory, Thunder Rock, Prince of Light, Consular and Ouininpohja.  This is a very hot race indeed with Signatory just getting my vote over Thunder Rock. Ouninpohja has been second on all three runs this season and has been unlucky on a couple of occasions.  He has a lot of weight to carry in this however and that is what just puts me off.  Consular has been running well but seems just short of what is required to win here.  

Indian Trail was a winner for the list to follow last week and seeks to follow up in the 4.05.  Somnus is the likely danger if he can show his best form on a surface he probably does not enjoy.

  

We have 3 listers in the 4.35.  Ryedale Ovation is yet to open his account this term and may just be a little high in the weights.  I have just about given up on King Orchisios who has let me down a number of times this season.  I suppose first time cheekpieces may do the trick but I don’t think I am going to bet on it.  My tip goes to the 3^rd of our list runners, Burning Incense who won in good style at Windsor.  Further improvement seems likely and he will do for me.

  

Harrison’s Flyer represents the list to follow in the 5.10.  He showed a return to better form last time when staying on well enough in 3^rd at Newbury.  He is best suited by big fields and he is well handicapped at the moment.  Although he has top weight he has proved a good weight carrier in the past. In with a shout and rain would help his cause further.

  At Leicester we have Kerriemuir Lass in the 4.10.  This one has been second on both outings this season. She may lack a bit of toe so the fact that she is upped in distance may help.  Very quick ground would be a negative.  

It has not been a vintage year for our list to follow.  One of those that is yet to win is James Fanshawe’s Sweet Emily.  She won over course and distance last season though and is expected to put up a better showing.

  

In the 7.45 at Nottingham Conquest is the clear form pick.  He obviously has bags of ability but does not quite seem to have the application to match.  This should be a penalty kick for him but as we know they can sometimes be missed.  Castano ran a pleasing enough race in 3^rd on his debut and is the likely one to benefit should the favourite flop.

  That is all for now.  I will be back tomorrow evening.

Continue reading “Diary: July 8 2006” →