There is just one runner from our list to follow in action tomorrow.
Transcend runs in the 3.20 at Nottingham. He is a half brother to the smart 7 furlong winner Suggestive. He ran twice at Newmarket last October, finishing 4th of 20 in the second of these. He was noted running on towards the finish in that race and as he holds a Derby entry he looks one to watch.
The tree of knowledge
For the first time ever my selection in the National came a cropper at the first. It was not all doom and gloom in our household though as my wife backed the winner. She picked it because we have a silver birch in our back garden; eat your heart out Agnes Haddock! I was also pleased that Inherent won at Chepstow for the Elite Racing Club. This was her 3rd career win, and her second since joining Henry Daly’s yard.
I’m getting older and I’m not sure about the wiser bit but there must be something that we can glean from this latest Grand National. Well for starters the first 5 home all carried less than 11 stone.
The first 4 had all won over at least 3 miles. Silver Birch had won a Welsh National and a Becher Chase. McKelvy had won over 4 miles as had Philson Run (twice). Of the 12 finishers, 4 had also finished last season.
Special mention among the losers should go to Bewley’s Berry who was going very well when falling, and Thisthatandtother who was bang in there off a big weight until running out of petrol.
There are only a couple of weeks left in the jumps season but we do have the Scottish National, the Betfred Gold Cup and the Punchestown Festival to look forward to still.
It was a sign that the flat season will soon start to gather momentum that Dylan Thomas last season’s Irish Derby hero was a winner at the Curragh this afternoon.
Not much to talk about in Monday’s racing so I will get out and enjoy the sunshine.
Well, it was another wonderful Grand National and after all my form study my selection fell at the first while my wife backed the winner. There can be little doubt that horse racing is good for the soul!
Betting issues apart I was pleased to see Silver Birch prevail as he looked made for the National back in 2005 only to have his chance thwarted by injury.
With the first 4 all carrying less than 11 stone the old trends thing was proved right again. Three of the first 4 were proven stayers and 2 had safely negotiated the National fences before.
There is just one runner from our list to follow on Sunday and that is Keenan’s Future in the 2.40 at Worcester. A novice hurdles winner last season his chasing career has not gone to plan so far. He ran out on his last run at Exeter so he is probably one to be a bit wary of.
See you tomorrow
The Aintree meeting has been quite successful so far for the horses on our list to follow with 5 winners. For the record so far Tidal Bay, Mighty Man, Monet’s Garden, Aces Four and Reveillez have won.
I will be dealing with the Grand National separately but here goes with the rest of Saturday’s racing.
Pepperoni Pete and The Duke’s Speech represent our list to follow in the opener at 1.45. Pepperoni Pete has underachieved somewhat this season although he did win a small race at Newton Abbot on his last start. He should handle the ground but it seems to me that the Nicholls runners have not been at their best this week. He seems to be the Nicholls second string anyway. The Duke’s Speech has failed to build on his promise of last season and there would not seem to be any real reason to support him in this.
The 2.15 should be worth watching as Lennon and Fair Along are likely to set a breakneck pace. Don’t Push It was going well at Cheltenham when he fell and he will no doubt be held up at the back by AP McCoy. If he jumps well he is in with a chance but the track might favour the front runners. I will take my chance with Don’t Push It though.
Detroit City is on a retrieval mission after his poor showing in the Champion Hurdle and he will be looking to put that defeat behind him in the 2.50. He is stepping up in trip in this race as is Champion Hurdle 3rd Afsoun who I thought ran particularly well at Cheltenham. The 3rd runner from our list to follow is Irish challenger Strangely Brown. He was 6th in the World Hurdle and will benefit from this drop down in trip.
Detroit was so flat at Cheltenham that I am nervous about supporting him here so will opt for Afsoun. Both Asian Maze and Jazz Messenger would be obvious dangers.
Opera de Coeur had been enduring a miserable season until his improved run last time at Uttoxeter. In a very open looking hurdle at 3.25 he gets my tentative each way vote.
In the 5.00 I am hoping for a good run from Bougoure who has been a shade unlucky not to get his head in front recently. Ferdy Murphy has his string in great form and his L’Antartique warrants respect. Venetia Williams has a good record in the race and she saddles Chief Yeoman, while another worth a second look is Bob Hall.
The card closes with the bumper at 5.35 where Noel Chance will be hoping that Aux Le Bahnn can maintain his 100% record. He will not want the ground to be riding too fast though. Whatever happens in this race Aux Le Bahnn looks a real hurdling prospect for next season.
On a personal note I will be hoping that Elite Racing Club’s Inherent can land the 5.25 at Chepstow. Her win last time at the stiff Towcester track suggested that the longer trip here should be in her favour.
Another Elite runner tomorrow is Eisteddfod in the 2.10 at Lingfield. He didn’t win last term but was a comfortable winner on the All weather at Kempton two weeks ago. That was his first effort on sand and hopefully he can build on that success at Lingfield.
My main hope at Newcastle is Balliasta from the in form Bary Hills yard. He was 5th on his only start at Newbury lasts season and went into the notebook for future reference.
If you would like a really silly, but literary wager, you could try Anne Bronte (Newcastle 4.30) and Wildfell Hall (Lingfield 3.15). For the non literary Anne Bronte wrote the novel the Tennant of Wildfell Hall.
That is more that enough for one evening. I will be back tomorrow with my thoughts on the National amongst other things.
So who is going to win the National?
With the handicap more compressed these days and the going looking decent is this going to be the year when the stats that say horses carrying more than 11 stone can’t win are finally blown away?
I must admit when I look down the list of runners there is a big temptation to side with the classier types at the top of the handicap, the likes of Hedgehunter, Eurotrek, L’Ami and Monkerhostin. But you can’t teach an old dog new tricks and there is little doubt I am an old dog these days. So I am going to ignore those carrying the big weights.
I must just mention one runner before I move on. Hedgehunter is such a good jumper and loves Aintree that it would not be a massive surprise if he was in the first 4 but I can’t se him winning with that sort of weight.
It seems likely that Joe’s Edge will start favourite. He has successfully jumped round these fences twice before, he is a former Scottish National winner, his stable are in cracking form, he won last time out at the Cheltenham Festival and he will love the ground. If you want to back him don’t let me stop you. I am going to pass him by, partly because he is on the short priced side partly because he might just still be feeling the effects of that Cheltenham run. He does have a great chance though.
Idle Talk has been a long term fancy of mine and despite unseating his rider on his last two runs he is still worth a mention. I am expecting a big gamble on McKelvey on the day. This one has been especially prepared for the race. The stable had a winner today, he stays and he jumps. It is really a case of whether or not he is quite good enough.
Dun Doire is another that has been laid out for this race by his shrewd trainer and I would not be surprised to see him run a big race. Billyvoddan will love the ground and is particularly well handicapped. He wears blinkers which always worries me in a race where there are so many runners and the horse will have his field of vision restricted. He is in fine form though and ran an absolute cracker at Cheltenham when 3rd last month.
At really big prices I think that Slim Pickings and Graphic Approach are worth mentioning. Slim Pickings has some high class form at shorter distances ands Barry Geraghty has the ride. If he stays, and that is by no means certain, he could go well at a big price. Graphic Approach is the type that might just take to both the fences and the marathon trip.
For me though the selection is Point Barrow. He has ticks in all the right boxes. He jumps well, stays, acts on the ground and is a previous winner of the Irish National.
Anyway, enjoy the race and I hope you back the winner.
The 2007 Aintree Grand National
The Grand National is the longest race run in the UK, 4 and a half miles, and the fences still remain amongst the toughest. It makes sense, if you are having a flutter on this greatest of horse races, that your choice needs to have stamina, and he needs to be a sound jumper.
I am going to look in depth at the form of each of this season’s hopefuls but first I want to consider the races that might help us pinpoint the winner.
First of all there is the Grand National itself. Some horses take to the unique Aintree fences better than others and some horses run above their normal form on the track. Anything that has previously run well in the race is obviously worthy of consideration. The other race run at Aintree that can be a useful pointer is the Becher Chase, which is run over 3.25 miles.
The other 3 major “Nationals” are my next set of important “indicators.” Form in the Welsh (Chepstow 3 miles 5 and a half furlongs), Irish (Fairyhouse 3 miles 5 furlongs) and Scottish (Ayr 4 miles 1 furlong) can be significant.
Two of the top handicap for staying chasers in England are the Hennessy Gold Cup (Newbury 3 miles 2.5 furlongs) and the Betfred Gold Cup (Sandown 3 miles 5.5 furlongs). These races are ultra competitive and attract quality fields.
There are a couple of races run at the Cheltenham Festival that I always take note of when weighing up the Aintree puzzle. The Cheltenham Gold Cup (3 miles 2.5 furlongs) is the blue ribband event for staying chasers. It is run at level weights and any horse that has run with credit in this race has to have a touch of class. The other Festival race that can be a guide is the William Hill Trophy run over 3 miles and 110 yards.
The fences at Haydock Park have some similarities with the National obstacles. It makes sense to look at the form of the two most important Haydock handicaps chases, the Peter Marsh Chase (3 miles) and the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup (3 miles 4.5 furlongs).
Finally there are a couple of real marathon events, The Eider Chase at Newcastle (4 miles 1 furlong) and the Midlands National at Uttoxeter (4 miles 1.5 furlongs).
The contenders
Hedgehunter meets most of the criteria for a National candidate. He really likes the race for a start. He fell at the final fence in 2004 when tiring. He would have finished 4th that time I should think. He won in 2005 and then came 2nd last season. He is probably the best jumper in the field, the fall in 2004 was the only time he has hit the deck in 16 starts over fences. Stamina is clearly not a problem and he also possesses that vital touch of class as shown with his 2nd in the 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup. Add to that the fact that his jockey, Ruby Walsh, rides Aintree as well as anyone and you have plenty on the plus side.
He has had an injury problem this season but came through a prep run over hurdles at Limerick a couple of weeks ago so should be OK from the fitness point of view. The negative with him is his weight. He carries 11 stone 12 and only one horse has carried that sort of weight to victory in the last 50 years, and that was Red Rum. Don’t get me wrong. Hedgehunter is a very good horse and I would not be at all surprised to see him in the first 4 or 5, I just don’t think he can win with that weight.
Eurotrek has been plagued with injury that has reduced his chasing career to just 7 starts so far. He will have his supporters on the big day as he won the Becher Chase this season, despite making a few jumping errors. He won over 3 miles 5 furlongs at Warwick last season so seems to have the stamina needed. He is set to carry 11 stone 8 which might just make life difficult for him.
L’Ami is the chosen ride of champion jockey Tony McCoy, who has never ridden the winner of this race. L’Ami has a surprisingly poor strike rate with only 3 wins from 28 attempts over fences. He made Kauto Star work hard to beat him at Newbury in February and he has run in the last 2 Gold Cups, finishing 4th and 7th. He is normally considered best with some give in the ground but was an excellent 2nd in the Hennessy last season in good ground. He jumps well in the main and has only fallen twice in his career, the last time being December 2004.
His weight and indifferent win to runs ratio just put me off him as a likely winner.
Monkerhostin has been a consistent performer over fences. His furthest winning distance over fences is 2 miles 5 and a half furlongs, although he did win at 3 Miles over hurdles, albeit at Kempton, an easy tarck. He came back from some disappointing efforts to finish 4th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month when he was running on at the finish. He has spent much of his career racing over shorter distances and the 4.5 miles of the National might just find his stamina out, especially as he has to carry 11 stone 6.
Thisthatandtother has mixed it with the best with his finest hour to date coming with his win in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival over 2 miles 5. Therein lies the problem though as he is a shorter distance specialist.
Billyvoddan comes to Aintree in good form. He ran away with a 3 mile handicap against decent opposition at Ascot in December and then lost nothing in defeat when a close up 3rd in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He will love the ground and is certainly one to consider. The two things that put me off him slightly are slight doubts over his stamina and the fact that he wears blinkers, something I don’t like in a Grand National candidate.
Numbersixvalverde won the race last season. The ground was good to soft then and it may be that the horse is at his best with give in the ground. He won the Irish National in 2005 in soft ground. He has proven stamina and has been lightly campaigned so far this season with another crack at the Aintree spectacular the obvious target. He looks likely to ger round and is a danger. However he has more weight to carry this yaer and he is unlikely to have his favoured ground.
Idle Talk was going to be my tip for the big race. He won at Exeter over 3 miles 1.5 furlongs in his novice season and put in a career best effort later that season when 2nd in the Royal and Sunalliance chase at the Festival. He was 4th in the Scottish National at the end of the season. This season he ran a cracker when just beaten by My Will over 3 miles 2.5 furlongs in a Cheltenham handicap and may have been feeling the effects of that hard race when 6th in the Hennessy. He has unseated his rider in both his last two starts. He made a complete horlicks of the 9th in the Cotswold Chase unshipping Richard Johnson and then was unlucky in the Gold Cup when his jockey was knocked out of the saddled when bumped by another horse. Some will take the view that he didn’t quite stay in the Scottish Natioanl and his failure to complete in his last two races is another concern. In the main though he jumps well.
Royal Auclair seems to have been around for ever but is actually only 10. He has some excellent form on his CV but may not be the force he was. His biggest career win was in the Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton in 2004 (3 miles 1.5 furlongs) He has put up some mighty efforts in defeat though, notably when carrying 11 stone 10 when runner up to Hedgehunter in the 2005 National. He was 4th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup that season and had been a short head second to Puntal in the Betfred Gold Cup in 2004. He fell at the first last season at Aintree and generally his performances have been below par lately. His best recent run was when 3rd to Kauto Star (L’Ami 2nd) in the AON chase at Newbury over 3 miles where he ran well for a long time in ground that wouldn’t have suited him. On his last start he was 6th in the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham Festival (3 miles 7 furlongs). He is well handicapped on his best form and acts on the ground. He may run into a place but the stable have not been firing so far this week.
Cloudy Bays has won 6 times over fences with his best win coming over 3 miles in a valuable Leopardstown handicap in January 2004. Looked the likely winner of the Kerry National (3 miles) at Listowel in 2003 when hitting the 2nd last and unshipping his rider. He was a faller over hurdles at Cheltenham on his last start. Most of his wins have come on soft or heavy ground.
Knowhere represents trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies who has a good record in the National. Knowhere has won twice over fences, at Perth and Bangor, both over 2.5 miles. He ran a cracker to finish 2nd in the hot handicap at Cheltenham on December over 2 miles 5 furlongs but his efforts at 3 miles have so far been a bitv disappointing and there must be some doubts over his ability to get the National trip.
Kelami is trained in France but has put up some decent efforts in his raids across La Manche, notably when 3rd, beaten only 2 lengths in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup, 3rd in the Betfred Gold Cup in 2005 and when winning the William Hill Trophy at the 2005 Cheltenham Festival. Seems to handle any ground and showed his well being when 2nd at Auteil last month. He was brought down in the 2004 National when only a 6 year old.
Point Barrow is a serious contender having won the Irish National last season on good ground. He comes into the race in good form having won the valuable Pierse Handicap at Leopardstown in January carrying 11 stone 10.
Celtic Son represents the powerful Martin Pipe stable. Celtic Son got his chasing career off to a spectacular success by winning the Rising Stars Novice Chase at Wincanton in November 2005 in spectacular style. He has not reproduced that form in 6 subsequent efforts though and I would imagine there must be doubts over his stamina over a marathon trip.
Simon is an interesting contender. He is only an 8 year old but he has won 5 times over fences. He has won decent 3 mile handicaps at Southwell and Kempton this term both in soft ground. The indications are that he stays well as he ran a blinder when 2nd at Sandown in early December over 3 miles 5.5 furlongs, again on soft ground. He was perhaps a little disappointing in the Welsh National where he finished 6th. I am not sure he is quite good enough to win.
Ballycassidy has only won once in his last 17 starts which sound pretty damning but he has a better chance than the bare facts suggest. He ran well in last years’’ National and was clear of the field when falling at Valentines on the second circuit. He is best on good or good to firm and may well get those sort of conditions on the day. If he gets into a rhythm he might well give you an exciting run for your money.
Clan Royal deserves to win a Grand National but there must be a fear that his chance may have gone now that he is in the twilight of his career. He was 2nd in 2004, in the lead then unluckily carried out in 2005 and 3rd in 2006. He has also twice won other races over the National fences, including the Becher Chase in 2003. His recent form is not encouraging as he was a first fence faller in the Becher Chase and he was then pulled up in a race at Ascot. You can’t completely rule him out given his track record but it may be significant that his pilot in the last 3 Nationals, Tony McCoy has chosen to ride L’Ami this year.
Gallant Approach has won twice over fences, both at Newbury, the first over 3 miles. He put in a solid performance when 3rd, beaten less than a length by Kandjar D’Allier at Haydock in December. On his last run he was 7th in the William Hill Trophy behind Joe’s Edge. He has only raced 6 times over fences.
Livingstonebramble has never won beyond 2.5 miles. He ran well in second at Gowran Park over 3 miles in January though and will appreciate decent ground.
Dun Doire is a major player and has been specially prepared for the race. He won 7 times last season and was 7th to Point Barrow in the Irish National. A slight worry would be that he fell in the Becher Chase.
Kandjar D’Allier will be easy to spot if you have backed him as he is a grey. He won over 3 miles back in December at Haydock in very testing condition. He returned to the Lancashire track for the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup but could only finish 11th of 16.
Slim Pickings has not been in good form this season but was still in contention when falling at the last over 3 miles at Gowran Park in January. He won a listed race at Cork last April and ran well in 5th at Cheltenham on his last start over 2 miles 5. There must be big doubts over his stamina but if he does get the trip he could be a dangerous outsider.
Zabenz has only won once since arriving in the UK from New Zealand. He was 9th in last season’s Scottish National. He has some good form as a novice though. He stays well and will act on the ground. He has possibilities as an each way bet.
Bewley’s Berry is a horse I have always liked. He is an exuberant jumper who showed he can handle the National fences when 2nd to Eurotrek in the Becher Chase in November. He has always looked a stayer so it was somewhat surprising that he faded out of contention to finish 9th in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock. The ground will not be a problem for him.
Longshanks has quite a good record over the National fences. He has twice contested the Topham Trophy, run over 2 miles 5.5 furlongs, finishing 2nd and 4th. He has won over 3 miles twice, albeit in small fields, and was 6th in the Scottish National last season. He has won on good ground and also handles soft. He has never fallen.
Bothar Na was 4th in the foxhunters which sir in over the National fences (2 miles 5 furlongs) in 2006. He was also 4th in the Cheltenham Foxhunters and that is run over an extended 3 and a quarter miles.
Graphic Approach has won twice over 3 miles, at Southwell and Sandown. He was 3rd to Billyvoddan at Ascot in December. He is one of my fancies to run well at a big price.
Homer Wells is an improving sort who won the BobbyJoe chase at Fairyhouse (3 miles 1 furlong) in December with Point Barrow 3rd and Numbersixvalverde 4th. All his career wins have come in soft or heavy ground which is the point against him.
Liberthine will have her supporters on the basis oh her victory in the Topham Trophy at Aintree last season. She has never won beyond 2 miles 5 furlongs though.
Silver Birch had his best season in 2004/5 when trained by Paul Nicholls. He won the Becher Chase and followed up by taking the Welsh National. Not surprisingly he was made favourite for the Grand National that season but injury prevented him from taking part. He had rather mixed fortunes after that and was a faller in last season’s National. Recent form has been a bit more encouraging though and on his latest start he ran 2nd in the cross country race at the Cheltenham Festival.
Philson Run is an out and out stayer. His CV includes wins in the Midlands Grand National and the Eider Chase so his stamina is proven. He was a faller on the only occasion he has attempted the Aintree fences, in the Becher Chase of 2005. He was 6th in the Scottish National on ground that was probably too lively and 8th on the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup where a bad blunder cost him his chance. He would probably need softer ground.
Puntal seems a moody customer and can spit the dummy out on occasions. He is capable enough on his day though as he showed when winning the Betfred Gold Cup in 2004 beating Royal Auclair by a short head. He hasn’t actually won since then but was 6th in last season’s Grand National. He stays, acts on good ground and if he puts his best foot forward could well challenge for a place at any rate.
The Outlier won the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock in January in very heavy ground. He has since been pulled up in both the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup and the Midlands National. Rain would help his chance.
Tikram is not short on quality but he is basically a two and a half miler and would seem to lack the stamina to win a National. The ground will suit him though.
McElvey seems to handle any ground from heavy to good to firm. He won the Summer National at Uttoxeter in July over an extended 4 miles so clearly stays. He was 6th in the Becher Chase in November so he has negotiated the fences before. He was stating on at the finish too so the extra distance on Saturday should be OK. He warmed up for the big race by winning over hurdles at Bangor last month. He has clearly been aimed specifically at the National and there are worse outsiders.
Naunton Brook does not have a stamina problem as he won over 4 miles at Hexham back in November. He has since won at Exeter with both successes gained in soft ground. He likes to race prominently.
Jack High won the Betfred in 2005 in good ground. 4th to Point Barrow at Leopardstown in January. He unseated his rider last season in the Aintree National. Apart from the win at Sandown all his other successes have come in soft ground.
Sonevafushi won a hunter chase at Wincanton in February. He stays and jumps but may just not be good enough.
Joe’s Edge will probably start favourite. He won the Scottish National in 2005 and ran a stormer to take the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham on his last start. He has twice jumped round the big Aintree fences, when 7th in the National last season and the in the Becher Chase this term. He loves good ground and has a great chance.
Le Duc has run over the National fences times with his best effort finishing runner up in the Becher Chase. He unseated his rider in last season’s National. On his most recent start he was 4th in the cross country race at the Cheltenham Festival.
"The Mourners"
When all the light and life are sped
Of flowing tails and manes,
And flashing stars, and forelocks spread,
And foam-flecks on the reins;
I like to think from every land
And far beyond the wave
A crowd of ghosts will come and stand
In grief around that grave –
WILL H. OGILVIE "
Tomorrow’s Aintree card kicks off at 2.00 with the Grade 2 novice chase. There are plenty of contenders here in what looks an open contest. Yes Sir won 7 on the bounce in the summer but has struggled to recapture that form during the season proper. Faster ground will be more up his street but I would still worry about recent efforts.
Ungaro has won 3 times this season but could not maintain his winning streak when 6th at Cheltenham. He jumps well and will handle the ground but there is a suspicion that he is better going right handed. Standin’ Obligation has put in a couple of dismal efforts in his last 2 runs. We might be able to ignore these though as they were both of soft ground. He goes well fresh and has been given a break so he has to go on the short list.
I was impressed with Aces Four at Cheltenham when he was about the only one to make a race of it against Denman. He will like the ground, should act on the track and his stable are going well. Dom D’Orgeval was a classy hurdler and won his first two starts over fences in small races. He never got into the race at Cheltenham won by Denman. He has done most of his winning in soft ground which might be a bit of a concern. He impressed with his jumping earlier in the season.
Killaghey Castle won his first start over fences beating the classy subsequent winner Briareus. He was injured in his next race but has since come back to win a small “egg and spoon”race. He is hard to assess as he lacks the experience of some of his rivals. Could be very good.
Of the rest Turko looks to put a disappointing Cheltenham run behind him. It is possible that this flatter track will suit him better. Jaunty Times is better with cut in the ground; Faasel is not one to rely on. Boychuk stays well and will acts on the ground but might lack finishing speed to actually win this.
Aces Four gets the selection.
It is hard to get away from Wichita Lineman in the 2.35. He has won his last 3 starts and seems to handle any ground. Silverburn will appreciate the step up to 3 miles but may find the ground a bit too lively for him.
It seems likely that Cerium, Fota Island and Newmill will be non runners in the 3.10. Hi Cloy won the race last year but has not been in the same form this time around. I would be reluctant to rule him out however. Monet’s Garden won on his only previous visit to Aintree. I am not sure what to say about this one as this season he has flopped badly twice but sandwiched in between those efforts was a decent win over 2 miles 3 at Ascot. Taranis won the Ryanair Chase which is probably a good guide for this race. He is consistent and handles the ground.
Well Chief looked a bit of a cert for the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham but tipped up at the 2nd fence. He is the class act in the field with the only really doubt being the trip, as he has never run over this distance before. I would imagine he would be OK, particularly on this track on good ground.
I would have to say that Well Chief is the likely winner. Taranis has had quite a hard season but could take advantage if Well Chief fails. Monet’s Garden would have to be at his absolute best. If he is then he might just be able to run the finish out of Well Chief. Well Chief has to be the selection.
The 3.45 is run over the Grand National fences. I don’t have any strong views on this one. Paul Nicholls seems keen on the chances of Le Volfoni so he is one to consider. Brooklyn Breeze last ran over fences when an excellent 4th in the Robin Cook Memorial Chase at Cheltenham back in December 2005. He is a horse I have always liked and he has won twice before at Aintree although not over the big fences. Briery Fox comes into the reckoning on the basis of his 3rd to Rambling Minster over 3 miles at Sandown in February. He stays well and will like the ground.
My last suggestion for the short list would be On The Net. The Irish have a good recent record in this race and On The Net has some decent form on his CV.
The 4.20 looks difficult to solve. Ouninpohja has plenty of ability but has his own ideas on the game and does not always seem to give of his best. He has only been out of the first 2 twice in the last 16 runs (and he was 3rd in those). He has to be respected on that sort of form. Tyson is interesting on the basis of his flat form where he was a winner in both South Africa and Dubai. He has the speed that should serve him well on this track and ground. De Soto is another that will appreciate the ground but I just wonder if he would be better on a stiffer track. A former winner on the flat in France, Enforcer has just run the once over hurdles, winning a race named after former Man U footballer Noel Cantwell at Huntingdon.
Tyson and De Soto are respected but my selection is Ouninpohja. You could also risk a little each way wager on Enforce.
In the 4.55 I would be inclined to look closely at those in the higher weight range. Tamarinbleu and Reveillez are two to consider. Of the rest Undeniable was an impressive winner at Wetherby last time out.
I really don’t have any view on the mare’s bumper at 5.30.
Good luck.
There is a top quality card for the start of the Aintree Festrival with 11 runners from our list to follow among the entries.
In the 2.00 Inglis Drever, the winner of the World Hurdle renews his rivalry with Mighty Man, Black Jack Ketchum and Blazing Bailey. The Howard Johnson horse has a particularly good record at Cheltenham and I have a feeling that he may not be quite as effective at Aintree. I fancy course and distance winners Black Jack Ketchum and Mighty Man to contest the finish. Both will like the ground.
In the 2.35 Exotic Dancer is clearly the form pick and the one they all have to fear. He has had a busy season though and I just wonder if that may catch up with him. I am going to oppose him with Turpin Green and State of Play, with slight preference for the former.
Andreas (4.20) had flattered to deceive in his races until showing a much better attitude to take the Grand Annual at Cheltenham. He has a big weight in this race as a result but the ground will suit him and he should be on the premises. Our other list runner is the grey Locksmith. He is well handicapped and has been showing signs of a return to form recently. He has an each way chance.
Tidal Bay represents our list to follow in the 4.55. He only just failed by a neck in the Ballymore Properties Hurdle at Cheltenham and is a major player here if he handles the faster conditions. Liberate looks the danger.
There are 4 runners from our list in the handicap hurdle at 5.30, Kicks for Free, Roll Along, Conna Castle and Dusky Warbler. Kicks for Free will handle the ground, doesn’t look badly treated and gets the selection.
On the flat I am interested in My Arch in the 5.40 at Leicester. At around 14/1 he is each way value.
Be lucky!
Both the horses featured in last night’s preview won, and I see that a 3rd horse from our list to follow, De Valira, was a winner at Fairyhouse.
One of the most disappointing horses on our jumps list has been David Pipe’s Nobody Tells Me. His jumping has been letting him down over fences while he was well beaten behind Grand National Hopeful McKelvey last time over hurdles. I can’t really give him a positive write up.
In the 3.20 2 of the 3 runners are from our list to follow. Mr Ed is well treated on his hurdles form and will handle both ground and trip. Fourty Acers was a winner at Ludlow on his chase debut in November but has since twice failed to complete. This is likely to be a tactical affair with just 3 runners but I will give a very tentative vote to Mr Ed.
Over at Hereford Lenny the Blade has an each way chance on his handicap bow in the 2.40, while best of the rest at Hereford could be Nocivo in the 4.10.
See you tomorrow
ahorse 