ahorse

 

I managed to show a profit on the National yesterday with a variety of bets giving me a 50% gain. There were lessons to be learned though.  The stats held up pretty well. Since 1983 only 1 horse has carried more than 11 stone to victory and that does seem to be the most important pointer.  The one "trend" that put me off Comply or Die was the poor record of horses with headgear. It did occur to me that Comply or Die was likely to be ridden prominently where any limitation to the horses range of vision would be less important.  Another key factor was the horse’s proven stamina, having won the Eider Chase. Once again the Irish challenge was significant.

Bewley’s Berry proved his liking for the National fences but didn’t seem to quite get home.  I had doubts about Cloudy Lane’s stamina over a marathon trip and I think that is what undid him.  He was nursed round to get the trip but could never get in contention.  I still think he will run solid races over 3 miles to 3 and a half next season.

There were a few successes from Friday’s preview with Tidal Bay an emphatic winner at Aintree and wins for Pertemps Networks and King of Dixie on the flat.  Both look as though they could follow up. Of the 4 selections for today we had 2 winners and a second so not too bad.

Only 3 weeks left of the jumps season now so we can start to really get stuck into the flat racing over the coming weeks. Jumps racing takes place at Kelso and Plumpton tomorrow though and Shrewd Investor is a runner from our list to follow in the Kelso 3.00  After winning at Newcastle he has been pulled up on his last two starts.  The Whisperer looks the one to be on in this race.

For you lovers of pointless trivia I see that Tuning Fork runs in the 5.10 at Kempton tomorrow.  He won on his racecourse debut for Henry Cecil back in May 2003 and was actually 2nd in the Dante Stakes that year.  Since that initial win however he has run up a losing sequence of 39.  He was once rated 111 but now runs off a mark of 46.

See you tomorrow.

 

I have covered the Grand National elsewhere so I will concentrate on the other racing over the weekend in this bulletin.

Starting with Aintree the handicap hurdle at 1.45 looks a bit of a nightmare. If you were desperate for a small each way then Serabad has been running consistently, as had European Dream who had a run on the flat a couple of weeks ago.

Several of the Cheltenham Festival stars have been turned over this week already so I put up Tidal Bay in the 2.15 with a little trepidation. He should win though. The other horse in this from our list to follow is the consistent Modicum who probably isn’t quite up to this sort of class.

Osana lost nothing in defeat when going down to Katchit in the Champion Hurdle. If he gets the trip he will take the beating in the 2.50. Afsoun will no doubt run his race and has place claims while My Way de Solzen may find the trip ideal and his stable could hardly be in better fettle.

Don’t Push It is back over hurdles in the 3.25 after a disappointing effort over fences at Cheltenham. He is well handicapped but Jonjo O’Neill’s horses have been pretty hit and miss this season.

The Real Deal goes for a hat trick in the 5.00 after wins at Haydock and Uttoxeter. He still looks reasonably handicapped and a further win is not out of the question. Theatre Diva was brought down at Newbury last time but had been in consistent form before that.

On the flat King of Dixie is a lightly raced horse with considerable potential in the 2.10 at Lingfield.

At Newcastle Moheebb should appreciate the trip in the 2.05 and has an each way chance at around 10/1.

Minority Report and Dhaular Dhar would be my two against the field in the 2.35, while in the 3.05 Pertemps Networks has been running well over hurdles.

Sunday selections

Market Rasen 3.20 Air Force One

Southwell 3.10 Oslot

Southwell 3.40 The Accordion Man

Southwell 5.10 Sir Mulberry Hawk

Have a good weekend

 

Well, it’s that time of year again, 40 runners, 4 and a half miles, it must be the Grand National!

Trying to weigh up the chances of each horse in such a large field is a daunting task so I am going to take a few short cuts.

Traditionally weight has proved to be a crucial factor in the Aintree puzzle. Since 1983 only one horse has carried more than 11 stone to victory, and that was Hedgehunter who won with 11 stone 1 on his back. For starters then I am going to take out the top 7 in the weights; all those carrying 11 stone 6 or more. That includes Hegehunter himself, probably the best jumper in the field and the Becher Chase winner, Mr Pointment. They simply have too much weight.

So far so good – we only have 33 runners to worry about. Next to go are all the runners aged 6 and 7 as no horse in that age band has won since Pontious was a pilot. Out go Opera Mundi, Iron Man, No Full, Bob Hall, Milan Deux Mille and Nadover. Right, now we only have 27.

The National is over 4.5 miles so stamina is an important attribute for any potential winner. I am going to remove next all those horses that have not won a race over at least 3 miles. This gets rid of Fundamentalist, King John’s Castle, Contraband and Tumbling Dice. Now we have 23

I want to remove 3 more now. Idle Talk has unseated his rider 5 times in his last 10 runs and in a race where jumping is so important he has to go. Martin Pipe saddles 3 horses in the race. Timmy Murphy had the choice of which one to ride and he chose Comply or Die so I am putting a line through the other two, Vodka Bleu and Joacci. Now we have cut the field on half and have 20 possibles. It is time to examine them one by one.

Butler’s Cabin has two very good bits of form. Last season he won both the Irish National and a 4 miler at the Cheltenham Festival. He is ridden by Tony McCoy which has to be another plus. On the negative side he has done nothing this season and his stable have been in and out of form. He has to be considered on the strength of those two wins last season but he is not going on my short list.

Slim Pickings ran a great race in 3^rd last season. He has been campaigned this time round with the National in mind. He is higher in the weights this time and although I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the first 6 I don’t think he will win.

Chelsea Harbour won over 3.5 miles at Punchestown in February in desperate ground carrying 11 stone 10. He clearly has plenty of stamina and a good attitude. He has had 9 runs this season though so quite a hard campaign, his jumping can let him down and he might be best on soft ground so I am going to pass him over.

L’Ami is a horse I have always liked. He once came 4^th in a Gold Cup and ran a good race in 3^rd at the Cheltenham Festival this season. He does not win very often though and he could only finish 10th last year so I don’t see what grounds there are for tipping him this time.

Snowy Morning was 2^nd to Denman at Cheltenham last season and many people have latched on to that performance when rating this horse’s chances. Ruby Walsh has chosen not to ride him, opting for Hedgehunter instead and that, combined with the fact that the horse is best on soft ground puts me off him.

Bewley’s Berry is interesting. He was going well in the race last season when falling (he actually crumpled on landing) and he has twice finished runner up in the Becher Chase over the National fences. One for the shortlist.

McKelvey was 2^nd last year and possibly unlucky not to win. He suffered an injury in the latter stages of the race but has come back to run twice over hurdles since the turn of the year. He was 6^th in the Becher Chase of 2006 over the National fences and showed he handles a firm surface when winning the Summer National at Uttoxeter over an extended 4 miles on good to firm. As long as he has got over that injury he must go on the short list.

Point Barrow was my tip last year and he fell at the first! He is a former winner of the Irish National but has worn blinkers in his last 3 races and blinkered runners have a terrible record in the Grand National.

D’Argent has a good record at left handed tracks, won at Warwick in January over 3 miles 5 and comes from the in form Alan King stable. He stays well as he was 2^nd in last year’s Midlands National over 4 miles 1.5 furlongs and he comes to Aintree on the back of a decent effort in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock where he was 4^th in what is often a good Grand National trial. He goes on the short list.

Baily Breeze hasn’t won over 3 miles since winning at Thurles over 3 years ago and that was in a slow run race. I can’t have him.

Cloudy Lane is very well handicapped as he has won twice since the weights were announced. He is trained by the McCain family of Red Rum fame, and he has won his last 3 races all at Grade 1 tracks. He jumps well and the ground will suit him. He has won over 3.25 miles but here remains a slight doubt in my mind that he will quite get the 4.5. He has to go on the short list though.

Mon Mome is a consistent individual. If you look at his wins it doesn’t look all that impressive but he has run some fine races in defeat. He was runner up in the Kim Muir at the Festival in ’06, 2^nd in the Welsh National in ’06, 2^nd in the Warwick Classic in ’07, 3^rd in the Red Square Vodka in ’07 and 4^th in the William Hill Trophy at last year’s festival. One for the short list.

Cornish Sett was 2^nd at Cheltenham in November over 3.5 miles, will like the ground and has a touch of class. He looks like the 3^rd string from his stable though if we go by jockey bookings.

Naunton Brook stays well as evidenced by his win over 4 miles at Hexham and he was 4^th in this year’s Welsh National. He is a bold jumper and may well be up with the leaders for some of the way. He didn’t get round last season though and I don’t think he is quite good enough.

Backbeat has had injury problems but won over 3 miles at Sandown earlier in the season. I think there are more obvious candidates.

Comply or Die is interesting as he has a touch of class and won the Eider Chase at Newcastle this year over 4 miles 1 furlong so clearly stays. He wears blinkers though and runners with headgear have an abysmal record in the National. This might be something to do with not being able to see what is happening around them in a 40 runner packed field.

Kelami is L’Ami’s brother. He won the William Hill Trophy in 2005 and was a good second at Kempton on his latest start. He was pulled up in the National last year though.

Black Apalachi has been running well in good handicaps in Ireland without actually winning. There are worse outsiders.

Philson Run is a dour stayer and was 4^th last year. He has stamina in abundance and good form over marathon trips.

Dun Doire has been aimed at this race by his very canny trainer. A former winner of the William Hill Trophy he was pulled up last season and is best on soft ground.

Ardaghey has come in as a reserve to replace Opera Mundi. He has won 3 times over 3 miles.

Summary

There is no doubt that Cloudy Lane is very well handicapped. If he gets the trip and doesn’t encounter any traffic problems he looks the most likely winner. His price is short though. If you want to back him I would suggest a win only bet as if he doesn’t get the trip he is unlikely to figure in the finish.

I like horses with proven ability over the fences. Hedgehunter is a wonderful horse but just has too much weight, as does Becher Chase winner Mr Pointment, although both may well get round. Last season’s 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th all reappear. Philson’s Run really needs a slog in the mud and while I can see Slim Pickings being in the first 6 I don’t think he will win. McKlevey on the other hand likes Aintree and if he has shrugged off his injury must go close.

The French brothers L’Ami and Kelami may have had their chance although either could be in the first 10.

Both Simon and Bewley’s Berry were going well when coming down last season. Simon has the best chance of those at the top of the weights but I just feel that the weight will tell. Bewleys Berry has twice finished 2^nd in the Becher Chase. I have a slight doubt about his stamina but if he lasts home I would fancy him.

Mon Mome is a consistent sort and I can see him creeping into 4^th place.

The Alan King stable are in red hot form and I have to include his runner D’Argent. He stays longer than the mother in law and is he takes to the fences he could be there or thereabouts.

Final answer? I like Bewley’s Berry, I can see last season’s placed horses McKelvey and Slim Pickings being in the first 4 again, Mon Mome is consistent and could get a place while Black Apalachi and D’Argent are my suggested outsiders. Whatever else you back a saver of Cloudy Lane would probably make sense.

Good luck!

 

 

Only a brief update tonight as I need to work on my Grand National preview.

Of the horses mentioned in last night’s bulletin I did rather better on the flat than over the sticks thanks to Quiet Elegance (22/1) and Wild Tonto (8/1).

The 2.00 at Aintree is of interest to em as there are 3 runners from my list to follow.  Albertas Run has gone from strength to strength this season and is preferred to the Paul Nicholls runner Big Bucks.

Keith Reveley sidestepped Cheltenham with his stable star Tazbar and coming to Aintree a fresh horse he makes plenty of appeal in the 2.35.

In the 3.10 you have to fancy Master Minded to confirm the Cheltenham form with Voy Por Ustedes.

There are 3 from our list to follow in the 3.45 all with something to prove.  In a year where Paul Nicholls has carried all before him his New Little Bric has failed to add to the Ditcheat handler’s win tally. He looked a horse with plenty of ability last term so I wouldn’t write him off just yet.  Bible Lord may find his stamina stretched over this trip while Three Mirrors was pulled up on his most recent start.  I am going to take a chance with Bible Lord each way.

On the flat at Wolverhampton Richard Fahey’s Fujin Dancer makes his handicap debut in the 8.20 where he has an each way chance.

 

Highlight of the day’s arcing for me was the listed race for stayers at Nottingham where Michael Bell’s filly Gull Wing just got up to beat the giant Shipmaster after a fair old tussle between the pair.

Over the next few days of course we have some high class racing over the sticks at Aintree culminating in the Grand National on Saturday.  In the 2.00 Inglis Drever is obviously the one to beat if he can translate his Cheltenham form to Aintree.  On form he has to be the likely winner but he will start at cramped odds.  Blazing Bailey has had to give best to Inglis Drever several times over the last few seasons.  He wears first time blinkers but there does not seem to be any good reason why he should reverse the form with his old rival.  Of each way interest are Millenium Royl and the Coral  Cup runner up Kicks for Free.

The 2.35 does not look a great betting medium.  Clearly Kauto Star should win, he is facing horses he has beaten many times before.  He had a hard race at Cheltenham though and anyway didn’t really shine in the Gold Cup.  Like the first race, this is not one to get too heavily involved in from a betting aspect.

Celestial Halo was an impressive winner at Cheltenham I can see him adding to that success in the 3.10.

In the 4.20 dual course and distance winner Lennon can open his account for the season albeit rather belatedly at the expense of Andreas and Bambi L’Orme.

Francheok has done little wrong this season and should be suited by the step up in trip in the 4.55 as he was a stayer on the flat.  Whiteoak has only been out of the first 3 once on her career.  She won the mares only hurdle at Cheltenham and gets a handy weight allowance here.  She is worth considering while I expect Lightning Strike to run well at a bigger price.  Franchoek is the selection though.

Junior ran a cracker in the Coral Cup and he is my selection in the 5.30 where Tot O’Whisky who was 3rd in a hot race at Sandown on his last start the other one I fancy.

On the flat at Leicester Quiet Elegance, a half sister to Reverence, runs in the 3.20.  She won her only start as a 2 year old in a Nottingham maiden. In the 4.30 Peter Chapple-Hyam gives a debut to a very interesting newcomer in Empowered who is a half brother to Authorized.

At Taunton Wild Tonto looks over priced in the 4.40.

 

I will get round to putting a list to follow for the flat season on the web site.  In the meantime the following runners on tomorrow’s cards will probably find their way onto the eventual list.

Kempton 7.20 – Tathkaar

Kempton 8.20 – Hereford Boy

Nottingham 5.10 – Rossini’s Dancer

 

I have been struggling to find a winner on the flat so far so here’s hoping for a change of fortune!

Glorious Gift, trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam may have been a bit unlucky not to get off the mark at a juvenile when he was beaten into 2nd place at Haydock.  Hew reappears tomorrow in the 4.00 at Folkestone where he should go well if handling the ground.

General Tufto ran 3 times as a two year old and is now qualified for handicaps. He showed some promise in those races and has been gelded since.  He looks the sort that could develop into a fair handicapper.  The runs in the 5.35 at Folkestone.

I used a follow a bit of a system where I backed the first 6 in the Lincoln next time they ran.  Rio Riva would be a "qualifier" on that basis.  He3 goes in the 4.45 at Southwell.

Compromiznotension has been knocking on the door and has a good chance of getting off the mark over hurdles in the Wetherby 2.40.

In the 3.15 Brook no Argument looks to have conditions in her favour.

In the 4.50 Sir Tantallus Hawk looks the most likely winner.  He is by the same sire ar Sir Boreas Hawk a dual bumper winner form the same yard.

 

The flat season is not in full swing yet but there are some interesting runners starting to appear.  One I like the look of is Hughie Morrison’s Rock Peak in the 4.40 at Lingfield tomorrow. Rock Peak made a pleasing start to his career when 4th in a Sandown maiden last season and further improvement is on the cards.

 

The only runner from our list to follow on Sunday is Cave Hill in the Kempton 4.15.  He Looked promising in 2006, winning an Irish point and bumper at Hereford (both on soft); modest form in novice hurdles and handicap debut at Folkestone (2m6f, good to soft) last time brought no improvement so, despite another step up in trip looks best watched.

 

Starting tonight’s preview at Bangor I see that Isn’t That Lucky, who won for us at 10/1 last time, runs in the 3.00.  Isn’t That Lucky is getting weight from his main rival and looks the likely winner.

Elsewhere on the Bangor card Len Lungo looks to have found a winning opportunity for Delightfully in the 2.30 while Carrick Oscar is of some interest in the 4.40.  He suffered a setback after winning a soft ground bumper at Towcester last season and finished 3rd despite pulling hard on his reappearance at Chepstow.  He tackles 3 miles for the first time tomorrow which should suit him and if he settles better he has an each way chance.

Moving on to Newbury the 2.55 looks an ultra competitive affair.  I have a short list of 4 for this consisting of Classic Fiddle, Scarvagh Diamond, Miss Mitch and Theatre Diva.  Miss Mitch, a winner at Wincanton earlier in the season was 2nd over hurdles at this meeting last season.   She is a horse I have always liked but she does have her share of weight.  The case for Scarvagh Diamond revolves around the going.  Her last 3 wins have all come on heavy ground so the more rain we get the better her chances.  Classic Fiddle seemed to be going the right way with 2 wins over fences but was pulled up last time out.  There were physical reasons put forward for that so if she is back to her best she would be in with a good chance.  Theatre Diva has only been out of the first two once in her last 10 starts has won on soft ground and is ridden by a decent claimer.  This is a very hard one to call but Scarvagh Diamond would be my each way selection on heavy ground.

The bumper (4.30) was won last season by Diamond Harry and, although he has not run since he attempts to follow up tomorrow. He clearly acts on the track, he won on soft ground and obviously goes well fresh so he be on the premises again.

The third jumps venue tomorrow is Stratford where my best offering is Low Delta in the 4.20.

There is flat action at Doncaster where Brave Prospector is likely to start favourite in the 2.35.  He comes from an in form stable and has the best form in the book but there are a few question marks against him. At a better price Louis Seffens looks a promising sort for Alan Swinbank after finishing 2nd on his only start last year at this track.

In the 3.05 Valery Borzov is an interesting runner for Dandy Nicholls.  This is a speedy type who should win races this year although perhaps he will be better over sprint distances and on faster ground.

I afncy Burning Incense as a horse to follow this season.  He didn’t win last year although he did run some solid races and he is now with Michael Dods who does well with sprinters.  Burning Incence should handle the ground OK but is drawn 3 which may turn out to be the wrong side.  He has an each way chance at 12/1.

Moheebb should be all the better for his run at Redcar the other day.  I see that he wears first time blinkers in the 4.45.

In the 4.50 at Kempton King of Dixie will have only his 3rd career start despite being a 4 year old.  He is an imposing individual who made all in emphatic style to win at Kempton in January.  He drops down to 6 furlongs here which is slightly surprising but he is open to improvement and certainly one to keep an eye on.

At Nad Al Sheba Godolphin look to have a strong hand in the 3.55 with Literato and Creachadoir.  Frankie Dettori has a high opinion of Creachadoir so the fact that he has chosen to ride Literato instead may be a tip in itself.

Dettori rides Jalil in the 5.30..  It would be quite something if Jalil could win this as, despite costing a king’s ransom he was far from convincing in his early days in the UK with his only success coming in a maiden at Ripon.

That is about it for tonight.  I will be back tomorrow evening for a look at Sunday’s racing.