ahorse

Tidal Bay is a remarkable horse and would be a very popular winner. Over the years he has won all sorts of races over both hurdles and fences at varying distances. Most relevant to our search for a National winner he has shown that he stays by winning a “Whitbread” at Sandown over an extended 3.5 miles, finished 3in a Welsh National (this season) and runner up in a Hennessy Gold Cup. He has class too having won a Lexus Chase at Leopardstown and he showed his current wellbeing when running a stormer in 2nd place at Leopardstown in February. The downside – he was pulled up on his only previous run in a Grand National and no 13 year old has won the race since 1923!

Still only 9 Long Run is the class horse in the race but although he has never fallen in his career he does tend to make a mistake or two during his races which could cost him over the Aintree fences. His rider Sam Whaley Cohen has ridden the runner up in the Grand National. The fences are not the fearsome obstacles of old and if Long Run gets into a rhythm he has a big chance.

Hunt Ball has never won a race beyond 2.5 miles and has plenty of weight to carry.

Triolo D’Alene is an interesting contender as he has already registered a victory over the National fences when winning the Topham Trophy in 2013. He showed that he is very much on the upgrade when winning the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in November. Beaten in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month he did not run badly but there must be a slight doubt about his ability to recover from his efforts at Cheltenham. He has the right sort of profile but 7 year olds have a very poor record in the race.

Rocky Creek lacks experience but is classy and his 2^nd place in the Hennessy this season puts him in with a shout. Jumps well but would possibly not want the ground too firm.

Quito de la Roque showed his best form in 2011 but has seemed to decline somewhat since then. Recent form has not been particularly encouraging.

Colbert Station unseated his rider in the race last season and has failed to complete the course in 2 of his last 3 runs. His career high came in December 2012 when winning a valuable race at Leopardstown.

Walkon was 2^nd in the Topham Chase over the National fences last season and was also runner up in a couple of valuable handicaps at Cheltenham. His best form though is over trips around 2.5 miles and his efforts over longer trips have yielded little success.

Balthazar King finished 15^th last season. 7 of his last 8 wins have come at Cheltenham where he is something of a specialist. He stays well and should finish the course again but I can’t see him winning.

Wayward Prince has shown his best form in small fields and is hard to fancy.

Mr Moonshine was 3rd in the Becher Chase over the National fences earlier in the season and has won twice since. He was pulled up in the National last season though which is a negative.

Teaforthree has a fine record over fences. A winner of the 4 miler at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival he was 3rd the National last year and was runner up in the 2013 Welsh National. An admirable sort that should again give a good account.

Across the Bay ran well for a long way last season before weakening into 14th. He was 8th in the Becher Chase this season and clearly handles the fences well. He won at Haydock in December but it is hard to see him winning the National.

Double Seven ran up a sequence of wins in Ireland last year including the Munster National over 3 miles at Limerick. He is a bit hard to assess but he seems to tick the stamina box and handles good ground well.

Battle Group has a good record at Aintree, although he is yet to race over the National fences, and he generally shows his best form in the spring. He has failed to finish on his last 3 starts though which is hardly encouraging.

Buckers Bridge has a bit to prove in the stamina department.

Lion Na Bearnai was a surprise winner of the Irish National in 2012 but he is 12 now and his recent form doesn’t look good enough.

Monbeg Dude won the 2013 Welsh National and has won twice at Cheltenham over distances in excess of 3 miles. He is a solid stayer and showed his wellbeing with a decent run at Doncaster last month. He has on occasions been a chancy jumper but he has never actually fallen.

Big Shu has winning form in cross country races and stays well.

Burton Port has good form including a 2^nd in the Hennessy in 2012. Classy at his best but he has been in decline. As a result though his handicap rating has tumbled. His latest run was encouraging and he is no forlorn hope.

Our Father has run respectably on his last 3 starts, all in good company, without suggesting that he would win a National. He prefers soft ground.

Mountainous won the Welsh National earlier this season. All his career wins have come in heavy or soft ground though. He probably needs the rain.

The Rainbow Hunter unseated his rider at Aintree last season but returns in good form having won the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster on his last start.

Vintage Star was 6^th in the Welsh National and went on to run a massive race in the Peter Marsh chase at Haydock. He was a faller on his most recent outing.

Chance Du Roy has a decent record over the National Fences. He has tackled them 4 times has finished runner up in the Topham as well as winning the Becher Chase this season over 3.25 miles. I have a feeling that that may just be the limit of his stamina and the longer trip could prove just too far for him. He handles both the fences and the track though.

Hawkes Point was 2nd in the Welsh National this season and 6th in the Haydock Trial. He needs soft ground.

Kruzhlinin is yet to win a race with more than 9 runners. Should be suited by the track though as he prefers going left handed. He lacks experience though.

Pineau du Re ran well over hurdles at Cheltenham last month and won over fences at Exeter earlier in the season. Not without a chance.

Golan Way comes here on the back of a win at Warwick but his overall form looks short of what is required to win a National.

Twirling Magnet is inconsistent and unseated his rider on his most recent start.

Vesper Bell was 7^th in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last season and ran his best race when narrowly beaten in a 3.75 miles handicap at Punchestown last April. His last 3 runs have been less encouraging though including a first fence fall over the National obstacles in the Becher Chase.

The Package has bits of decent form including a win in the Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton. He ran very well when 3^rd in a top handicap at Cheltenham on his last start after an absence of a year. He is quite lightly raced and has probably had injury problems. On the negative side he failed to get round on his only previous effort at the Nation unseating his rider at the 19^th fences in the 2010 renewal. The form of that 3^rd at Cheltenham has worked out well though as both the second and third have won well this week.

Raz de Maree won both the Munster and Cork Nationals at Limerick (3 miles) and Cork (3.5 miles) respectively. Since then he has been pulled up on 2 of his 4 starts.

Rose of the Moon was 10 in the Becher Chase this season and he won on his last start in a 7 runner race at Warwick. That form doesn’t look good enough.

Shakalackaboomboom has better credentials. He was 9th in last season’s race and had earlier finished 7th in the Topham Chase over the National fences. There is no obvious reason why he should improve on last year’s effort though.

Alvarado was a winner over 3.5 miles at Cheltenham in November but hasn’t been seen since he was pulled up at the same track on New Year’s Day.

Last Time D’Albain was 3^rd in the Topham last season and looks to have been well prepared for this. He is unproven over the trip though and stamina could be a problem.

One in a Milan is quite interesting. He was 3^rd in the Midlands Nation at Uttoxeter last season over 4 miles plus and then came 4^th in the Welsh National this season. Stamina is clearly not an issue and he has a low eight. Most of his form has been in soft or heavy ground.

Swing Bill has been 10^th and 6^th in the last two Nationals and 4^th and 5^th in the last two Becher Chases so he clearly loves the place. At the age of 13 he is an unlikely winner but he should get round with credit.

1.30 Tiger Roll, runner up in a Grade 1 in Ireland is open to any amount of improvement and is one for the shortlist. Royal Irish Hussar ran up a hat trick of wins earlier in the season before disappointing when favourite at Doncaster. He has had a break and could recapture that early season form. Broughton won a listed race at Musselburgh where he impressed with his hurdling technique. He is another with scope for improvement.

Calipto has won twice at Newbury and looks a smart prospect. That is my shortlist. I will narrow it down to Tiger Roll and Broughton.

2.05 Minella Foru, Thomas Edison and Cheltenian make the most appeal.

2.40 Briar Hill and Kings Palace set the standard.

3.20 I think that Bob’s Worth has an excellent chance of retaining his title. First Lieutenant is worth an each way saver.

4.00 Tammys Hill and Harbour Court are my two against the field.

4.40 Full Shift is the selection with an each way saver on Princely Player.

5.15 Tanks for That was second in this 2 years ago and recently won a bumper. Barry Geraghty rides. Claret Cloak will relish the drying ground while Viva Colonia is another that will be suited by the ground. Astracad is on a fair mark while Ned Buntline gives the impression he has been laid out for this. Next Sensation looks to be on a lenient mark and is open to improvement.

Claret Cloak, Viva Colonia, Astracad, Next Sensation and Ned Buntline look the ones to concentrate on. Claret Cloak to win from Next Sensation and Ned Buntline!

ahorse

Diary: April 7 2014

Update

Diary; Flat racing April 5 2014

Grand National–The verdict

Grand National–all the runners

Diary: April 1 2014

Diary: March 29 2014

Diary: March 15 2014

Diary: Cheltenham Day 4

Diary: Cheltenham Day 3