Today’s selection Trigger the Light maintained his 100% record over fences today, while Theatre Diva was also a winner from our list to follow.
Not much catches my eye tomorrow. Both One Sniff and Fourty Acers have shown ability previously and return after lengthy lay offs in the 4.35 at Market Rasen. The market might be a guide to their chances.
Not much to talk about tomorrow. Trigger the Light looks the one to beat in the 2.40 at Warwick. He has not been out since winning at the end of November at Kempton but is well regarded by connections and provided that the absence has not been due to an injury he should win.
There isn’t much of interest at Taunton tomorrow so perhaps this is a good time to reflect on the events of last week at Cheltenham.
Day 1 went OK on the tipping front with Tidal Bay romping home in the Arkle at 6/1 (If you want to back Noland I certainly wouldn’t put you off but I am going to give a narrow preference for Tidal Bay, especially as Howard Johnson’s horses have been running better recently.)
Garde Champetre was a comfortable winner of the Cross Country (Wonderkid would be my selection unless the ground rides on the soft side when the other two would be preferred. Garde Champetre looks dangerously well handicapped.)
An Accordion won the William Hill Trophy (An Accordion looks the obvious choice here and he may well win )
On a general point you had to admire the gutsy win of little Katchit in the Champion Hurdle who held on in determine fashion to repel a renewed challenge from Osana.
On the Thursday I was pleased with my preview of the opener.
(Over The Creek and Beantown would be my main fancies with Old Benny and Back on Line each way shots) – the actual finishing order was Old Benny, Over the Creek, Back on Line.
There were plenty of winning tips: Albertas Run (Albertas Run should finish in front of his rival again so I will go for him), Master Minded ( off the fence then; good ground Voy Por Ustedes, soft ground Master Minded) Inglis Drever (but Inglis Drever has to be the selection) and best of all High Chimes (I was impressed with High Chimes when he stayed on strongly to take 3rd behind Cloudy Lane at Haydock in December and he is my suggestion for this)
Day 4 wasn’t bad either. (This could be between Franchoek and Celestial Hero with preference for the former), right horses in the wrong order!
(I have actually backed Junior and Niaid Du Missalot. I was impressed with Kicks For Free when he won he won at Kempton last time out.) These were the first 3. Tiger Cry (Tiger Cry on his best form has a great chance in the Grand Annual)
So all in all it could have been a lot worse.
I will let the dust settle a little before commenting on a Cheltenham Festival that very much lived up to expectations.
The next big occasion over the jumps will of course be the Aintree Grand National meeting. The runner up at last year’s National, McKelvey has his last prep run over hurdles tomorrow in the Newcastle 3.55. It will be interesting to see how he goes but my tip for that race is Great Approach. He was 3rd to Ballyfitz at Haydock on his last outing and that horse went on to win at Cheltenham this week.
The Real Deal left previous chase form well behind when jumping like a bunny to win at Haydock last month. I am hoping that he can follow up in the 2.20 at Uttoxeter. Paul Nicholls saddles Michael Muck in the same race. He has disappointed since winning at Chepstow in October but now that he is reunited with Ruby Walsh he could be the one to give the selection most to do.
Uttoxeter stage their own "National" tomorrow, The Midlands version. Blue Splash is the only runner from our list to follow. He is yet to win over fences this season but has come down the weights a bit as a consequence. He has an each way chance.
In the 4.05 our list to follow is represented by Ouzbeck who is a course winner but may have too much weight.
Day 4
Once again I will concentrate on the races actually scheduled for today. Those races being rerun as a result of Wednesday’s abandonment were previewed in the bulletin for day 2.
12.30 David Nicholson Mares Only Hurdle (2m 4f 110y)
The 9 year olds Refinement and Sweet Kiln have solid credentials here. Refinement has quite a good record at Cheltenham and also seems to come to hand at around this time of year. She won a Grade 1 hurdle at Punchestown last April and has won once this season, in a decent mare’s only listed race at Kempton at the end of November. She gets on very well with AP McCoy and looks to have an outstanding chance. Sweet Kiln is a tough Irish mare who has not finished out of the front two in any of her last 10 races. She handles any ground and has to be one for the shortlist.
Of the younger brigade Theatre Girl makes most appeal. She will only be having her 4th start over timber and she is yet to finish out of the first two. She had previously run well in bumpers, finishing runner up to Turbo Lynn at Aintree and that horse went on to win the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks on the flat. Those would be the trio that I would concentrate on in this race. Of the rest Gaspara won at the Festival last season and I always like previous festival form. Also of course the Pipe yard are not in bad form.
2.15 JCB Triumph Hurdle (2m 1f)
Franchoek has done nothing wrong and sets the standard here. He hurdles well, stays and has a good attitude. In fact to some extent he seems too good to be true and I just wonder if he could be susceptible to something that does him for toe in the finish. Celestial Halo is the obvious danger. He was 7th in the St Leger and has shown enough in his two starts over hurdles to put him firmly in the picture. He should appreciate the track and is said to prefer some cut in the ground. These would be my two against the field and I am going to give a preference for Franchoek as he is a horse I have always liked from his days on the flat. I hope he wins.
If you are looking for something at a bigger price then the consistent Serabad could be for you. He has been beaten by Franchoek twice but has never run a bad race and comes here on the back of a win at Haydock. The other one I would give a mention to is Songe trained by Charlie Longsden. This one has won his last 2 races and had good form both on the flat and over hurdles in France before coming to the UK.
This could be between Franchoek and Celestial Hero with preference for the former. Franchoek had Ashkazar back in 4th when winning at Chepstow at Christmas and that form has been boosted since. Serabad would be my each way choice.
2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (3m)
The North has a good chance in this with the Nicky Richards trained Middleton Dene. He ran really well when a close-up fourth in the Sidney Banks on his first run since October when he blew up but was still only beaten 2l giving weight away to two of the three ahead of him. He will improve for the step up to 3miles, he won at the course earlier in the season and has been aimed at this race all season.
Sound Accord is a half brother to Wild Cane Ridge and stays well. He is an improving sort who was 2nd to Tazbar on his last start. He did have a hard race that day though and it could have left its mark. Lodge Lane is a talented if slightly quirky individual who has won both his novice hurdles this season. A dual bumper winner he will not lack for help from the saddle with Barry Geraghty in the plate. Paul Nicholls is represented by The Tother One who is unbeaten in 5 career starts ridden by Sam Thomas each time. Two bigger priced horses you could look at are Nenuphar Collonges and Siegemaster.
If the ground were to ride soft I would go with Lodge Lane and The Tother One with Middleton Dene preferred on firmer ground.
3.30 totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m 2f 110y)
So much has been said and written about the long awaited clash between Kauto Star and Denman that there is not much I can add. Kauto Star is rated as the equal 6th highest rated steeplechaser of all time and his rating would have won the last 40 Gold Cups. Clearly Denman would have to be a hell of a horse to beat him but of then perhaps Denman is a hell of a horse!
I know you can point to the fact that Kauto Star has earned his rating by beating doubtful stayers and it is possible that Denman will just blow them all away from the front in the way that Master Minded broke his opponents hearts in the Champion Chase today. Only a fool would be too dogmatic about the outcome of this clash but I will stay with Kauto Star who has the form in the book.
Of the rest Neptune Collonges should run well. He is only 7 and still improving. Halcon Generlardais stays well and he is another than could challenge for a place especially in soft testing conditions. I could also see Knowhere running on though beaten horses to grab 3rd.
4.05 Christie’s Foxhunter Chase (3m 2f 110y)
Drombeag won this last season and should be on the premises again. Paul Nicholls looks to have a good chance with Lou Du Moulin Mas who is ridden by the very capable Tom Greenall. Nicholls has trained the winner 2 out of the last 4 years.
Man from Highworth and Bon accord are the others that make most appeal. These 4 would be my “panel.”
4.35 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase (2m 110y)
Tiger Cry on his best form has a great chance in the Grand Annual. His best two career runs have been on decent ground at Cheltenham and Arthur Moore knows more about handicapping horses than most people.
Nicky Henderson will be keen to win this race named after his father. I see that stable jockey Mick Fitzgerald has elected to ride My Petra and that could be a pointer. Another from the Henderson yard, Crozan is one for the shortlist. He goes well fresh and has had a 3 month break and a fast run 2 miles should be just his bag of oats. Barry Geraghty rides. Andreas won this last year but has gone up 11 lbs since then which will make his task more difficult.
My Petra sneaks in here with a light weight and ticks most of the right boxes. He gets my selection and would certainly be a popular winner.
5.45 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle (2m 1f)
I would respect the Irish challenge in this with Wanango and Phycho while George Moore knows the time of day in handicap hurdles and he saddles Mon Michel. Paul Nicholls has a good record in this race and I see that Ruby Walsh rides I’msingingtheblues.
Good luck
Day 3
I will ignore the races being rerun from Day 2 as these were previewed in last night’s bulletin. One thing I would say is to take account of any changes to the going when making your selections.
1.40 Jewson Novices’ Handicap Chase (2m 5f)
This looks an open race (am I saying that too often?). I am going to start with the Irish challenge with both Finger on the Pulse and Ambobo having claims. Finger on the Pulse is still a maiden over fences but on his latest run he came second to the highly rated Glencove Marina at Leopardstown. He won 4 times over hurdles and though he can be a chancy jumper he goes well for Barry Geraghty. He is probably best on soft ground. Ambobo was a classy hurdler and in fact won a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham in 2005 when trained in France. He jumped well when winning a beginners chase at Naas on his last start and is one for any shortlist.
As usual Paul Nicholls has a strong ahd in this with Dear Villez the choice of Ruby Walsh. Dear Villez has won his last two starts over fences and the stable seem keen on his chances. He appears to handle any ground. Arturio will be ridden by Sam Thomas. He won over course and distance in January but has gone up a fair bit in the weights as a result. Barber’s Shop beat Silverburn in a bumper on his racecourse debut and has been progressing over fences, winning at Kempton on his latest outing. Incidentally, he is owned by The Queen. The other one I like is Mr Strachan. On his chase bow he ran with great credit behind L’Antartique in a 3 runner affair at Carlisle and then got to within 4 lengths of Arkle winner Tidal Bay. At Christmas he beat Kruguyrova which again is very solid form.
I don’t have a strong view on this one really but would try a small each way on Mr Strachan.
2.55 Ryanair Chase (2m 5f)
Our Vic is a talented but enigmatic character. He has run at the last 4 festivals without winning so I am going to pass him up this time. Mossbank looks the right type for this. He has won twice this season and chased home the formidable Denman in the Lexus Chase. He has a break since then and this trip should be ideal for him. There is perhaps just a slight question mark over his resolution should he get into a battle up the hill. He goes well fresh and gets on well with his jockey Davy Russell. He finished just in front of The Listener in the Lexus. The Listener has since won the Irish Hennessy. He jumps well stays further than this trip but has a very good record when running at distances below 3 miles. He is certainly best in soft or heavy ground and it is just a case of whether he can win on drying ground, although he has won at Cheltenham on good to soft.
L’Anartique is the third one to consider. He won the Paddy Power over course and distance earlier in the season and also won the Jewson at last year’s festival. There is a doubt over Mossbank when it comes to a fight and I will therefore put forward The Listener and L’Antarique as my two against the field. If you are looking for an each way then Turko could go well. He handles good ground well and this is probably his trip. He is an under-rated horse.
3.30 Ladbrokes World Hurdle (3m)
I think you have to go for the excellent Inglis Drever to win this race for the third time. Blazing Bailey will run his usual game race and should be challenging for the minor honours. It is interesting though that Choc Thornton has chosen to ride My Way de Solzen, who won this arce two years ago. My Way de Solzen has been very disappointing this season and appears to have lost his way. At his best though he would have a decent chance. Kasbah Bliss is probably best on a flat track.
The Market Man and Kazal look the most likely of the outsiders but Inglis Drever has to be the selection.
4.05 Racing Post Plate Handicap Chase (2m 5f)
I have backed Don’t Push It and Bible Lord for this so here’s hoping. Don’t Push It ran Denman very close in a novice chase a couple of years ago and was going very well in the Arkle last year when falling. He has not run since winning over hurdles at the start of the season and has had an injury but he has a good record when fresh. Bible Lord seems to have found his ideal trip. He won at Leicester last time out beating subsequent winner The Sawyer. Oedipe is the danger. He has been off the track since Boxing Day 2006 when he was a most impressive winner at Kempton. I see that Mick Fitzgerald has elected to ride Crozan which could be a pointer. I will stick with Don’t Push It and Bible Lord though.
4.40 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) (3m)
Robin Du Bois looks like a bit of an Irish “plot” here and it would be no great surprise if he won. Five year olds don’t have a great record in this race though if you are one for the trends. The French challenger Onnix won a listed handicap at Auteil but that was on heavy ground. A couple of home based horses I like are Russian Trigger and Gunner Jack. Russian Trigger is very lightly raced and has won both his starts this season showing a taking attitude in the process. He has had a long break and goes well fresh. Gunner Jack is another without too many miles on the clock with just 4 career starts. He was only beaten a head in the Haydock qualifier for this race and looks to have scope for improvement.
5.15 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (3m 1f 110y)
I was impressed with High Chimes when he stayed on strongly to take 3rd behind Cloudy Lane at Haydock in December and he is my suggestion for this. Openide has quite a good record at Cheltenham and he is one to consider as are My Immortal and Noir et Vert. My immortal’s chance would be helped greatly if the ground rides good.
Good luck
Cheltenham Day 2
2.00 Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle (2m 5f)
Aigle D’Or represents Nicky Henderson in this. A winner on the flat in France he has won both his starts over hurdles in the UK. His form looks good as the horse he beat on his last run has won since. He has already won at Cheltenham, has speed being a listed winner on the flat and he gets the trip well. There are some negatives though. With only 2 runs over hurdles he does lack experience and his trainer has a poor record in the race.
The Irish challenger Forpadytheplasterer should be a major player. A Grade 1 winner at Leopardstown last time this step up in trip should be in his favour. He is a big dour galloper and has a really solid look about him for this race.
Group Captain is a danger. He was rated 102 on the flat and is unbeaten in 3 starts over hurdles. The stable are in fine form and he looks a major player. Those would be my 3 most likely winners.
Looking at the each way value Razor Royale was 4th behind Aigle D’Or at Cheltenham but he was a course and distance winner earlier in the season and seems to handle any ground. Majestic Concorde was a useful flat handicapper and won a couple of small hurdle races before finishing 4th in a Grade 2 at Punchestown. He probably needs good ground. Another Irish fancy is Venelmar whose trainer has to be respected at the Festival and he looks worth an each way bet.
So, there you have it really, 3 potential win bets and 3 each way selections. If pushed for a win selection I would narrowly go side with Forpadytheplasterer.
2.35 Royal & SunAlliance Chase (3m 110y)
This does not look a very strong renewal of this race and I am struggling to see past the first and second in the Reynoldstown Chase, Albertas Run and Air Force One. It is very hard to split them but I suppose that strictly on the book Albertas Run should finish in front of his rival again so I will go for him. Oscar Park won the Pertemps Hurdle final at last year’s festival and has won a couple of small races over fences this season. Silverburn is a horse I have always liked but I am not sure about his stamina at this trip.
In summary then, I find Alberta’s Run and Air Force One hard to split and Oscar Park is one that could go well at a price.
3.15 Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase (2m)
This seems to be between 4 horses, Voy Por Ustedes, Twist Magic, Master Minded and Tamarinbleu.
I think that many pundits have been writing Twist Magic off a little prematurely. His defeat at Ascot may well have been down to the testing ground and prior to that he had beaten Voy Por Ustedes at level weights in the Tingle Creek. Masterminded put in an awesome performance to win the Game Spirit Chase and he looks a horse on the up. It has been suggested that Voy Por Ustedes lacks his previous zest this season. He has a very consistent record however and has not been out of the first 2 in his last 13 completed starts. He also has a good record at Cheltenham.
Tamarinbleu is proven in the stamina department and will surely make this a real stamina test. It is not inconceivable that he could make all and he will certainly test any chinks in the armour of the Nicholls pair Twist Magic (stamina) and Master Minded (jumping). If the ground rides soft I would fancy Master Minded as he has the most scope among the 4 main players. Voy Por Ustedes is very consistent and will give you a run for your money as he jumps well and stays. If the ground rides on the soft side it would be a negative for him. Off the fence then; good ground Voy Por Ustedes, soft ground Master Minded.
4.00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) (2m 5f)
28 runners and a bit of a nightmare! Let’s try and narrow it down a bit. I have actually backed Junior and Niaid Du Missalot. Junior was a decent staying handicapper on the flat winning twice from 3 starts. Since moving to Alan King’s yard he has improved as a hurdler and was only narrowly beaten last time out at Huntingdon. He is an unexposed type and should go well. Niaid Du Missalot won a competitive hurdle at Haydock back in December and looks to have been laid out for this. Leg Spinner has a great record at 2m2f or further on decent ground winning four times in five tries. He has not run since winning the Cesarewitch and they were even thinking about the Champion Hurdle for him. He can’t be out of the frame on decent ground. He does tend to struggle on soft ground though so keep that in mind.
Those would be my 3 main fancies.
Of the rest The Package looks to be David Pipe’s main contender and is another lightly raced horse. I was impressed with Kicks For Free when he won he won at Kempton last time out but he does have a lot of weight.
4.40 Peter O’Sullevan National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (4m)
There are plenty with chances in this. I like Back On Line for Venetia Williams. The further she goes the better she is and she won for her current pilot last time out at Uttoxeter.
My main fancy is Over the Creek who has solid staying handicap chase form at the track and looks an ideal type for his race while I also like Old Benny each-way as he looks an out-and-out stayer in the making. Sherwoods Folly jumped well to win at Huntingdon on his last run and is clearly suited by cut in the ground.
Beantown looks the best Irish hope. He was 2nd in this race in 2006 only beaten a neck and won his last start at Navan. Strictly on form the Paul Nicholls trained Ornais is the one to beat. He has won twice this season and despite an odd head carriage he is basically a sound jumper. There is a suspicion that he may be best on a flat track though and he is rather a short price.
Over The Creek and Beantown would be my main fancies with Old Benny and Back on Line each way shots.
5.20 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (2m 110y)
My 3 against the field here are Apt Approach, Zaariti and Corkskeagh Royale in that order.
Cheltenham Day 1
2.00 Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (2m 110y)
This race tends to be contested by ex horses from the flat from UK yards and more stoutly bred national hunt types for Ireland. As to which prevails is likely to be partly down to the going, with the faster ground likely to favour those with flat speed.
Rippling Ring will be the mount of Ruby Walsh and has the right sort of profile for this race. An ex flat winner in South Africa he won easily on his only start in this country over hurdles at Doncaster. Although the form of that race does not amount to a lot he could be a good deal better than the bare form. Khyber Kim and Blue Bajan were both classy types on the flat but both have their quirks. Khyber Kim bolted up on his hurdles bow at Newbury but then ran very disappointingly behind Tazbar at Doncaster. Mick Fitzgerald has chosen to ride him ahead of the other Henderson runner though and he has to go on the shortlist. His debut win at Newbury impressed me and he beat a decent horse that day in Alan King’s Theatre Girl. Blue Bajan was good enough on the flat to run Maraahel to a head in a Group 3 race at Chester and he won twice over hurdles before finishing down the field in the Totesport Trophy.
Although lacking the class of some of the others mentioned on the flat Pigeon Island has successfully made the transition to hurdling as his 6 wins in that sphere testify. He is tough, genuine and experienced. The other I like is the giant grey Pasco, a winner of a 12 furlong handicap at Saint Cloud who has won twice over hurdles at Newbury since moving to Paul Nicholls stable. Deep Purple is another ex flat horse that comes into the equation. Well placed by his handler Evan Williams he ran up a sequence of 5 straight wins before being upped in class when beaten into second by the Paul Nicholls trained Breedebreeze. He is likely to benefit from decent ground.
The best of the Irish could well be Muirhead who is unbeaten in his 3 starts, one in a bumper and twice over hurdles. He is only a small framed horse but he has done nothing wrong, handles any ground and his stable are now in good form. He is said to be a bad traveller though and has not been top the UK before which could be a concern. Another big Irish hope is last year’s champion bumper winner Cork All Star who was an unlucky runner up to Muirhead at Fairyhouse. This one has a miler’s pedigree but never actually ran on the flat. Cork All Star has won twice in bumpers at Cheltenham and his trainer is adept at getting a horse ready for the Festival. Cork All Star has also shown that he can travel successfully to the UK of course but his jumping has not always looked good enough.
I will also give a mention to a couple of lively outsiders, one from either side of the Irish Sea. Snap Tie, trained by Phillip Hobbs is a horse I have always liked. He has good form at Cheltenham and if the ground is in his favour, he doesn’t like it soft, then he could run well. Tranquil Sea who was 3rd in the Grade 1 Deloitte Hurdle at Leopardstown is my Irish outsider. He seems to handle any ground.
Khyber Kim lost his race in the parade ring at Doncaster on his last outing and he does have his quirks. There are some very positive reports about his form at home though and he could well be hard to beat if producing his best. Jockey Mick Fitzgerald is of the opinion that the horse is best with some cut in the ground and he may well get this with rain forecast. Blue Bajan is another that could well figure especially on faster ground. I am going to plump for Muirhead though. He comes here fresh and the yard are going very well now and I feel he sets the standard. The lightly raced Rippling Ring could well be a serious contender and I understand that the stable are very keen on him, while the Nicholls second string Pasco is an each way alternative.
2.35 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (2m)
In 2 mile championship events jumping is absolutely crucial as one mistake can put a horse out of contention. Ruby Walsh is very keen on the chances of Noland and believes that his jumping will be the key. Noland was a classy hurdler and beat Sublimity and Straw Bear to win the Supreme Novices in 2006. He missed last season through injury but has won twice over fences this season, albeit not against top opposition. He has actually won 7 of his 9 career starts.
Tidal Bay has been described as an accident waiting to happen as he can put in the occasional sloppy jump. The race will be run pell mell all the way and this will undoubtedly put the pressure on his jumping. I still like him for this though as he has bags of speed but also stays further than 2 miles, something which I think you need for this race. He is yet to finish out of the first 2 in his career and you can’t argue with a record like that. His stable has been out of form for a while though so his wellbeing is a potential negative.
Of the Irish the two I like are Clopf and Scotsirish. I thought Clopf jumped very well until he overjumped the final fence last time and that form has since been franked and I like his chances if the ground isn’t too soft. Classy hurdlers have a good record in this which is also in his favour. Scotsirish stays beyond 2 miles and his chance will be enhanced on a sound surface. His jumping has tended to let him down though.
The other two I would consider are Moon Over Miami and Ring The Boss. The thing in favour of Moon Over Miami is that he has won on both his previous visits to Cheltenham and course form is very important at this track. Ring The Boss is a progressive sort winning over hurdles at Newbury and Sandown. He ran a cracker on his chase bow at Warwick, finishing runner up despite giving weight to the winner.
Noland and Tidal Bay are the most likely winners of this race. If you want to back Noland I certainly wouldn’t put you off but I am going to give a narrow preference for Tidal Bay, especially as Howard Johnson’s horses have been running better recently. My best outsider would be Ring the Boss, particularly if there is ease in the ground as it is a case of the softer the better for this one.
3.15 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (2m 110y)
The reigning champion is Sublimity but, although he has a good record at the Festival I feel that he won a relatively weak renewal last season and used his speed to beat aging rivals in a slowly run race. This year the race will be run at a much more true pace with Osana likely to attempt to make all. Osana and Sizing Europe have the strongest claims and both are young progressive horses and appear to represent a new era in hurdling. Sizing Europe, a really imposing individual won the Greatwood Hurdle by 4 lengths from Osana, but as he was getting 6 lbs that day they are very closely matched. Both have won well since. Sizing Europe won the AIG at Leopradstown in most taking fashion while Osana beat Katchit by 8 lengths in the Boylesports International at Cheltenham, no mean feat against a tough course specialist.
It is very hard to separate Sizing Europe and Osana and this could be a two horse race. Gun to head I would just go for Sizing Europe but the slick jumping Osaan, from the inform Pipe stable has real claims. I suppose you have to consider Harchibald but is he going to find anything when the chips are down? Good ground would help his chance and he could be a thinking man’s place only selection.
Katchit is a natural over hurdles and has an excellent track record that reads 11112. He is an admirable type and will surely run a game race but 5 year olds have an abysmal record in the race and he has already been beaten by Harchibald and Osana this season. I think he will again find one or two too good. Blythe Knight is a classy flat horse but I can’t see Cheltenham suiting him.
Of the rest Catch Me has run well at the festival before and comes here on the back of an impressive career best win in the Red Mills Hurdle at Gowran Park. His form is all on soft ground. On a sounder surface the two outsiders to consider may be Ebaziyan, a winner at the festival last year and Bob’s Pride.
4.00 William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase (3m 110y)
My short list for this is An Accordion, Ofarel D’airy, Mon Mome, Fundamentalist and L’Ami.
Fundamentalist has yet to win a chase beyond 2 miles 5 and a half but likes it here and has won two of his last three starts. He is set to carry 11 stone 2 though and the last 8 winners carried less than 11 stone. Mon Mome was 4th in this race last year, has a nice weight and had a recent spin over hurdles. He has solid festival form as he was runner up in the Kim Muir in 2006. Ofarel D’Airy won at Cheltenham as a novice and was only beaten at the track by a short head by Glasker Mill in November. He has been a bit disappointing since then but if returning to his best he would be a leading contender.
I wouldn’t rule out An Accordion being a Gold Cup horse next season and his current rating of 143 could be a very lenient one.
L’Ami is a very interesting runner. He was 4th in the Gold Cup in 2006 and has slipped down to a very lenient looking handicap mark. He also has the benefit of Tony McCoy in the saddle. A lively outsider could well be Bob Hall. He was 2nd to L’Antartique in the Jewson last season and put in a solid effort when close up 3rd to Knowhere here back in October, only getting run out of it on the run in. He has had a 70 day break and if he is right he could be an each way possible.
An Accordion looks the obvious choice here and he may well win but he is likely to be a skinny price. I like the previous festival form of L’Ami, Mon Mome and Bob Hall.
4.40 BGC Cross Country Chase (3m 7f)
The Irish are likely to dominate this race again and my main fancies are Wonderkid, Heads On the Ground and Garde Champetre. Wonderkid would be my selection unless the ground rides on the soft side when the other two would be preferred. Garde Champetre looks dangerously well handicapped. The Paul Nicholls pair Royal Auclair and Le Duc are also respected.
5.20 Fred Winter Junior Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (2m 110y)
Prince Erik will have his supporters as he was 6th in the Irish Derby in 2007 and is the mount of AP McCoy. There is also a strong word for River Liane who was a facile winner at Leopardstown a couple of weeks ago.
Anything that Gary Moore runs in this sort of race has to be respected and his Harry Tricker is one to consider. He was a winner at Plumpton on his latest start and is a good jumper. Decent ground would suit him.
I also like the look of the 3 at the top of the weights, Ashkazar, Chapoturgeon and Crack Away Jack. Having watched Ashkazar storm clear of the field in the Imperial Cup on Saturday he has to be my selection. As top weight he gets into the race without a penalty for Saturday’s win.
Good luck
On the eve of the Cheltenham Festival there are just two horses from our list to follow running on Monday.
Stratford 4.40 – Day to Remember
Taunton 2.50 – Manhattan Boy
These are quite days wit the Cheltenham Festival almost upon us. There is some interesting racing over the weekend nonetheless with the big race being The Imperial Cup at Sandown (3.50).
There are 3 I fancy for this. You have to respect Gary Moore in these big handicap hurdles and his Mon Michel looks well handicapped. His 3rd here in January looks respectable form. The class horse in the race has to be Ashkazar of David Pipe’s who crossed swords with the best on the flat. He was a really easy winner over hurdles at Wincanton before finishing 4th to the Triumph Hurdle favourite Franchoek. He then won again, this time at Sandown. He is a very classy recruit to the jumping game and has to be on the short list. The other one I am quite keen on is Halla San, a decent handicapper on the flat who has won a couple of hurdle races up at Musselburgh so comes here in good form.
Earlier at Sandown in the 2.05 the recent Chepstow winner Wind Instrument should go well. There are also a couple of runners from our list to follow in this, Laborec and Tot ‘O Whisky. Howard Johnson’s horses have been running in to a bit of form this week and Laborec could be each way value at around 14/1.
In the 4.25 Gentle John goes for his 3rd success of the campaign. He is on the upgrade and if his jumping hold together he could be hard to peg back.
Ayr is subject to an inspection and if racing goes ahead the ground is likely to be on the testing side.
in the 3.25 Quws Law seeks to restore his reputation after a bit of a grumpy effort on his last run. He has shown some ability in his earlier runs though and if back to form he would have a chance.
Len Lungo has been saddling some winners this week and in the 4.35 Berwick Law is his representative. This one could just be suited by the 3 mile trip and has an each way chance.
At Chepstow in the 3.40 Mister Potter and The Sawyer both have chances. Mister Potter looks a bit of a baby but has plenty of scope. I see that he runs in first time blinkers which could sharpen up his concentration. The Sawyer comes form a yard that has had a virus but the horses have been running better recently.
On Sunday my main fancies are:
Hereford 2.25 Otage de Brion
Market Rasen 2.15 Brook no Argument
Warwick 3.05 Theatre Diva
ahorse 