There are just 3 runners from my list to follow in action on Sunday. Merigo acts on heavy ground and has a good chance in the KelsoBorder’s National at 1.50. Wild Cane Ridge may be the danger here.
At Warwick I have Calgary Bay and Otage de Brion in the 1.10. Calgary Bay with AP McCoy in the saddle is the selection.
Punchestown selections;
12.35 Shirley Casper
1.05 Jaffonien (danger Go Native)
3.05 Horner Woods and Jonco; (both ew)
The Tingle Creek tomorrow (Sandown 2.35) has an illustrious list of previous winners, including Kauto Star and Moscow Flyer (pictured below) in recent seasons.
This renewal looks a match between Master Minded and Tidal Bay. On the evidence of his Champion Chase performance it is hard to see Master Minded being beaten. If his subsequent defeat can be put down solely to the longer trip at Aintree then I don’t think Tidal Bay is going to be able to match him. Tidal Bay has never been out of the first 2 in his 15 career starts and as he stays further than this 2 miles will be suited by a strong gallop. My likely 1, 2, 3 would be Master Minded, Tidal Bay & Takeroc in that order. An intriguing race, but not really a betting proposition.
There are 3 runners from my list to follow in the 1.00 at Chepstow. 1.00 Wichita Lineman, Pancake and Iwillrememberyou. Wichita Lineman was beaten by a very promising sort in Lodge Lane at Exeter and can get back on the winning trail here.
Lordsbridge has been a staying on 4th in both his races this season, both at Cheltenham. He always seems to arrive a bit too late to take a hand in the finish but if he could be given a little less to do he would be of interest in the Sandown 1.35. Wind Instrument has top weight after winning his last two starts at the end of last season. He is likely to be going over fences before long but connections are giving him another go over hurdles here. He may just be a little too high in the weights now but has an each way chance.
Free World will start favourite for the 2.00 after an impressive win over course and distance last month. He looks a worthy favourite with the progressive Cheating Chance the main danger.
King’s Revenge is a very consistent sort but as a result gets very little help from the handicapper. At around 8/1 though he is not a bad each way bet in the 3.05. The course and distance winner Five Dream looks over priced at 16/1 and is another with an each way shout.
Nine de Sivola is yet to get his head in front over fences despite finishing 2nd in a number of top handicaps. He will appreciate the trip tomorrow in the 3.35 and this could be his day. Rambling Minster runs in this rather than an alternative engagement at Kelso on Sunday and looks a big danger.
In the rescheduled Fighting Fifth (Wetherby 1.50) I can see Punjabi getting the better of Blue Bajan and Sublimity, especially given the form of the stable. Harchibald (pictured below) won the race last season but does not defend his title tomorrow.
Andytown was an impressive winner of a conditional jockey’s handicap hurdle at Cheltenham and can follow up with Barry Geraghty on board in the Wetherby 1.15.
My only selection at Navan is Zaarito who was one of last season top bumper performers. He runs in the 12.15.
The painting of Moscow Flyer is by Karen Davies, and Harchibald by Lisa Miller. My thanks to both artists for allowing me to use their work.
It was nice to see Sam Thomas have a couple of winners today. That will no doubt do his confidence some good. One of his winning rides was for Venetia Williams on the ex German Lightning Strike in a beginner’s chase. Quite a decent hurdler it will be interesting to see how far he can go over fences.
Tomorrow the jumps action comes from Exeter and Sandown and there are a few talking points that we can have a look at. Can you look at a talking point? Oh well, you know what I mean.
In the Exeter 1.00 Franchoek looks likely to start favourite. I was beginning to wonder if he might be a little tricky to place as he looks just below the very top class but will always be saddled with plenty of weight in handicaps. Sure enough he is set to give lumps of weight away tomorrow which might take some doing in the likely heavy ground. He has plenty of stamina and the class to beat his rivals tomorrow but he won twice on good to firm on the flat so heavy going could be a problem. He is a tough, genuine horse and I hope he wins but I would not take a short price about him.
In the 1.35 No Panic represents my list to follow. I was quite impressed with his effort when 3rd behind Hell’s Bay at Chepstow but I have the feeling that he prefers a sound surface so the going tomorrow could be a problem.
One that will like the ground is Ballygalley Bob in the 2.10. He hasn’t shown much in his two runs so far this season but the stable are in form now and this extreme test of stamina might be what he needs.
Sir Winston finished last on his seasonal reappearance but I am hoping for better things from him tomorrow in the 3.20. He is the sort of horse that could improve with time and I would give him an each way chance.
There are three runners from my list to follow in the 2.00 at Sandown. Junior has been really disappointing this season. He looked a horse to follow on the back of his close up 3rd in the Coral Cup last season but he remains a novice after 3 runs since. On official ratings he ought to win this but he has been expensive to follow which does tend to make you a little wary. It is possible that he doesn’t like soft ground so that is something to keep in mind. On Raglan Road cost £320,000 at the Doncaster spring sales after winning his sole point to point and then scoring in a bumper in Ireland. After winning on his UK debut at Hexham he was runners up to a smart Paul Nicholls horse, and the 3rd in that race has since bolted up. Grizebeck cost 75,000 gns at the sales and quickly rewarded his connections by winning at Bangor. A case could be made for all three but my preference is for the Howard Johnson runner, On Raglan Road.
In the 3.10 I would give Mokum an each way chance as long as the ground is not too testing.
The 3.40 is quite a difficult race to weigh up. There are 3 that I like, Buffalo Bob, Quaddick Lake and Pterodactyl. Buffalo Bob showed improved form when 2nd at Folkestone last time out and that run puts him in with a good chance here. Quaddick Lake has to be honest given his supporters very little encouragement this season. I have a feeling that he is capable of better things though and with the stable showing signs of running into some form I wouldn’t rule him out. Pterodactyl, a winner on the flat in France, was runner up at Leicester last month and should come on for that run. The Venetia Williams/Sam Thomas trainer/jockey combination were successful today and Pterodactyl is my tip in this race.
Today’s pictures are by kind permission of the artist Maura Clarke.
After a week’s delay we are back in business. I was tipping so many winners in my daily racing diary that my PC blew a gasket. If you believe that ….
I will start today with a quick look back at the racing since I “went off air.”
November 26
I was quite keen on the chances of Kilmackillage at Wetherby, mainly as he had won first time out in the previous two seasons. He duly obliged despite making a rare old mess of the second last. At Kempton Somersby was a winner for trainer Henrietta Knight whose horses may be emerging from a rather lean spell, while at Chepstow Bensalem and Alfie Sherrin were further winners from my list to follow.
November 27
The grey Pasco may not be one of Paul Nicholls’ leading lights but he managed a win at a time when some of his more illustrious stable mates were hitting the deck. Pasco got into a nice rhythm at Newbury and apart from one notable blunder his jumping was very sound. Once again Straw Bear was a disappointment and he does not seem keen on chasing. Earlier on the card Carole’s Legacy got the better of Over Sixty in the mare’s novice hurdle, with the pair of them well clear of the remainder. Other winners from my list to follow were Gypsy George at Uttoxeter and The Nightingale at Taunton.
November 28
Buck the Legend only got off the mark at the 13th time of asking when winning at Exeter on November 21 but he followed up in good style under a penalty at Newbury in the novice handicap chase.
Ballydub took advantage of his favourable handicap mark when galloping his rivals into submission in the extended 3mile Pertemps Handicap qualifier, paying a considerable compliment to Punchestowns, who successfully gave him 15lb when beating him at Cheltenham last time out. Copper Bleu gave Richard Johnson and Philip Hobbs a double when beating Riverside Theatre.
Glencree cost £230,000 at the April Cheltenham sales and started to repay that fee when winning at Musselburgh. This success was part of a four timer for trainer Howard Johnson. Ferdy Murphy is starting to find some form after what has been largely a slow start for many of his horses and Beggar’s Cap, despite being a market drifter won at Musselburgh under a well judged Graham Lee ride.
November 29
The early results from Towcester included a double for David Pipe. It did make me wonder if a small wager on the stable’s runner in the Hennessey might be worth the risk but sadly I didn’t have the courage of my convictions. In the event Madision Du Berlais was a worthy winner, perhaps signalling a change of fortunes for the Pond House team. Air Force One, in second place, lost nothing in defeat in ground that would not have been ideal. Great Endeavour was one of those Towcester winners thereby completing a hat trick.
Cockney Trucker gave Philip Hobbs another success at Newbury in a strong looking novice hurdle, while another trainer in form, Nicky Henbderson provided the winner of the Grade 2 Long distance hurdle with Duc de Regniere. In a bit of a muddling race Duc de Regniere showed an impressive turn of foot under AP McCoy and plans top send him novice chasing will presumably now be put on hold. Perhaps the one to take out of the race may be Pettifour who will be better suited by a stronger gallop. Sadly Inglis Drever (pictured below) was pulled up after sustaining an injury. You have to wonder if we will see him on a racecourse again. If he has run his last race his retirement home is assured anyway.
Other winners that impressed me on Saturday were Nicky Henderson’s chaser Classic Fiddle and the tenacious mare Helen’s Vision.
Solwhit, trained by Charles Byrnes is a horse I have been keeping an eye on and I was pleased to see him win the handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse. I would have given him a nice positive write up – had my PC been working!
November 30
The best action on Sunday came from Ireland with Trafford Lad completing a hat-trick when staying on determinedly to land the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase. Earlier Hurricane Fly showed a nice turn of foot to beat Donnas Palm and stable-mate Cousin Vinny in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle.
If tomorrow’s meetings go ahead there are just 3 runners entered from my list to follow.
I quite like the chances of Circus of Dreams in the 1.00. He is probably best suited by genuine good ground so watch the weather! He has run poorly in testing conditions before.
Later on the Market Rasen card Sue Smith runs Daldini in the 2.30. He is yet to find his form this season but has come down a bit in the weights.
At Leicester High Jack is going for a four timer in the 2.10. He is 7 lbs higher than when winning at Towcester by half a length last month so life will obviously be more difficult for him. He is a half brother to Bible Lord.
The picture of Inglis Drever is courtesy of the artist Lisa Miller. The photograph is by kind permission of Ann Duffield Racing.
The main meeting tomorrow is at Newbury where the first race is at 12.25. Paddy Brennan will be on the recent Lingfield winner Mewstone for trainer Tom George. That win came in bottomless ground as the Lingfield meeting only went ahead after a couple of inspections. She tackles a longer trip tomorrow but stamina is unlikely to be a problem. It remains to be seen whether testing conditions are essential to her as she is yet to encounter quicker ground. Over Sixty lowered the colours of a previous winner at Southwell in October. She then lost nothing in defeat when 2nd in a strong race at Cheltenham this month. She comes from a good family as her dam is a half sister to Dublin Flyer.
Carole’s Legacy won the Aintree Festival bumper, where Over Sixty was 6th. She was made favourite on her hurdles debut but had to settle for 2nd behind Shoreacre, who has since run well at Ascot. She is a half sister to her stable companion and recent winner Mad Max. The fourth horse from my list to follow in this race is Braybrooke Lady who makes her hurdles debut here after a couple of runs in bumpers.
This is a tricky one as Mewstone, Over Sixty and Carole’s Legacy all have sound claims and come from stables in form. It is hard to knock the form of Over Sixty as she contested a hot looking race last time out and I will burden her with my selection. Very testing ground would make Mewstone an interesting proposition.
Straw Bear and Pasco were 2nd and 3rd respectively when they met at Exeter in October. Straw Bear has run since when he was well beaten by Tatenen. Nick Gifford’s horse was a classy hurdler but does not look a natural over fences and I fancy Pasco to reverse the form. Pasco’s trainer, Paul Nicholls has won this race twice in the last 3 seasons. Jonjo O’Neill saddles Isn’t that Lucky who ran well in 4th behind I’msingingtheblues at Kempton and could well put up a bold show.
The 2.05 has gone to some good horses in the past such as Shotgun Willy, Valley Henry and Cornish Rebel. There are 3 runners from my list to follow involved in tomorrow’s renewal and Paul Nicholls has the likely favourite in The Tother One. He has won 6 of his 8 races so far and won on his chase debut at Exeter. The track at Newbury should suit him and he looks the one to beat. The main danger could be the more experienced Tartak who has had 4 runs over fences, winning the last two. Denis O’Regan, who won on him at Huntingdon has the ride again. Crescent Island was a winner at Stratford in a beginner’s chase but was then no match for Tatenen at Cheltenham over an inadequate 2 miles. He should do better over this longer trip but I prefer the other two, and in particular The Tother One!
At Taunton King Brex, trained by Charlie Mann catches my eye in the 1.05. He ran 5 times in bumpers last season and finished 3rd in the last two, at Punchestown and Clonmel. My best bet at Taunton though is in the 2.15. The Nightingale was an unlucky loser when slipping up after jumping the last at Exeter. The winner that day, Shalone, has gone on to follow up under a penalty and the form looks solid.
In the 2.50 Prairie Spirit could be an interesting recruit to the winter game. He won 5 times on the flat in France in distances ranging from a mile to an extended mile and three quarters. Mr Big won a hunter chase on firm ground at Down Royal but was well down the field in heavy going at Exeter. He may do better in the 3.25.
Miss Ceka has been really disappointing in her career so far despite being well thought of by her trainer. She has had a breathing operation over the summer. She may well be capable of better than she has shown previously. The one I quite fancy in this race though is Sangfroid. Fourth last time out he should have ground and trip in his favour and I see that he will be wearing a first time visor.
On to Uttoxeter where my main hope is Gypsy George, a progressive chaser who has won 3 of his last four starts and will like the soft ground.
Iwillrememberyou was 3rd at Carlisle on his chase bow and should be all the better for that run. Soft ground is important for this horse and if he gets conditions to suit he would be my selection in the 2.30.
Today’s pictures are by kind permission of the artist Lisa Miller. See links for further information about this artist.
There are 3 jumps meetings tomorrow and some quality racing for a mid week.
Starting at Chepstow there are a couple I like in the 12.40. Bensalem, a winner of his sole Irish point opened his account in the UK in a bumper at Sandown and looks to have plenty of potential. He is making his hurdles debut as is King Fontaine from the Paul Nicholls yard. He ran twice in bumpers last season finishing 3rd and 4th and is the type to make a chaser in time. These would be my two against the field in the Chepstow opener.
Paul Nicholls introduces another promising runner in the bumper that closes the Chepstow card at 3.55. Alfie Sherrin won a Larkhill maiden and this well bred individual could be a useful prospect.
Trainer Henrietta Knight is having a really poor run but I see she did have a winner in the bumper at Ludlow yesterday. I have her Somersby on my list to follow but I would want to see a few more signs of form from the yard before getting too enthusiastic about her runners. Somersby goes in the 12.30 at Kempton tomorrow.
Hora was raised 18 lbs for her win at Aintree and did seem rather anchored when 3rd at Wincanton. She is a likable type and of course her trainer Nicky Henderson is in great form so a return to the winner’s enclosure after the 1.30 tomorrow couldn’t be ruled out. She was beaten when running over 2 miles 6 and as she stays really well this return to a longer trip might help to counteract the big rise in the weights. One Gulp looks the danger.
Nom de Guerre ran a cracker when 3rd to Rightway Star at Haydock earlier this month. He runs in the 2.05 tomorrow where a return to a right handed track might well help him. He has a decent chance. The other one I fancy is Treasury Counsel. Things didn’t go right for him last season but he is fancied to make amends over fences this term.
Regal Quote posted an encouraging effort when 2nd at Huntingdon last month and can go one better in the 2.40 for the in form Emma Lavelle yard. He is owned by the trainer’s father.
Max Bygraves represents my list to follow in the 3.45. He is 10 lbs higher than when winning at Kelso last month and may need to get some respite from the handicapper before he wins again.
Kilmackilloge goes well fresh and could go well at a nice price in the 1.50 at Wetherby. He is probably best on genuine good ground.
Today’s pictures are courtesy of the artist Jane Dunn. See links for further examples of this artist’s work.
See you tomorrow
We had a winner today thanks to Quws Law who notched his 4th win at Ayr. The winner made all and there should be more to come from him around the northern tracks. The second, Great Approach made a bit of a hash of 3 out but was staying on at the finish. He should not be long in getting off the mark over fences.
Turning to tomorrow there are 3 runners in action from our list to follow. Nicto de Beauchene is yet to win a race and has fallen on his last 2 starts but he does have some ability and was going well enough when falling on his last start. If he puts in a clear round he could go close. Ballygalley Bob is a dour stayer that likes the mud. He was pulled up over hurdles 3 weeks ago but should be fitter for this and in testing conditions he would be a contender.
Lease Lend has had 3 runs over fences and that experience should stand him in good stead in the 12.50 at Sedgefield. He has an each way chance at around 6/1.
Late update
Worbarrow Bay could be a bit of a dark horse in the 1.00 at Lingfield. She was 2nd in a bumper at Cheltenham on her only previous start but missed the whole of last season through injury. Soft ground should suit her although she may need further than 2 miles.
Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Ruth Buchanan.
The beginner’s chase at Ayr (1.40) looks to be between Great Approach and Quws Law. Great Approach has some good form over hurdles including a 3rd to Ballyfitz at Haydock in February. He has tried fences once before but was pulled up. Quws Law has always looked a chaser in the making and likes Ayr where his form figures in bumpers and over hurdles reads 1231PP1. He has had a wind operation since the “double P.” He was down the field at Carlisle on his chase debut last month but should come on for that run. It is difficult to pick between these two but I would just favour Quws Law.
Nicky Richards trains Great Approach and the Greystoke handler has another fancied runner in the 2.10 in Merrydown. This 5 year old gelding was runner up to the well regarded Door Boy on his first run of the season and built on that when landing a novice hurdles at Kelso in soft ground. He has to give weight away all round tomorrow but has a conditional jockey taking 3 lbs off and looks the one to beat.
The only runner from my list to follow in action at Ludlow is Lester Leaps in who runs in the 1.20.
Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Alison Wilson.
At Aintree tomorrow I am hoping that Honest John can get us off to a winning start in the opener at 12.30. He won a strong bumper at the Liverpool track last season and looks an exciting prospect.
Quarry Town would normally be my selection in the 1.05 but my enthusiasm is tempered somewhat by the form of the David Pipe runners. Having said that there wasn’t much wrong with Tamarinbleu’s effort today.
Gwnako has proved he can handle the Aintree fences and would be one of my leading fancies for the 1.40 where perhaps the Nicholls/Thomas combination can gain some compensation for the defeat of Kauto Star. The other one on my original short list for this was Regal Heights who looks as though he has been trained with this race in mind. He would almost certainly need soft ground though as all his form has been in the mud.
Serabad won twice last season when trained by Peter Bowen. He is now with Tim Vaughan who runs him in the handicap hurdle at 2.15. He could well be open to further improvement. The same can be said of Auroras Encore from Sue Smith’s yard. These are my two against the field in this race.
Ferdy Murphy has made a slow start to the season but that is not really unusual. He does not rush his horses and one or two have been showing signs of form recently. He has Noir et Vert in the Becher Chase at 2.50 and I think this one has an each way chance at around 14/1.
Quaddick Lane and Tom Know’s are a couple that I fancy in the 3.25 but again there has to be a slight doubt over the well being of some of the David Pipe runners. Market support for either of these two would be worth noting. General Potter looks the type to improve with time and he has an each way chance.
Vodka Brook should be there or thereabouts in the 2.40 at Plumpton while my nap of the day is Pandorama in the 1.00 at Navan.
I must thank the artists responsible for my two pictures today. The one at the top of the page is by Margaret Barrett and the second one, showing Comply or Die on his way to winning the Grand National last season is by Katie Scorgie. Katy Scorgie was commissioned by the Spinal Injuries Association to paint this picture and it is featured on their Christmas cards. These are available online from http://www.spinal.co.uk or by telephoning 01462 735 745
Jack the Giant has his favoured good ground in the Ascot 1.20. He is a course winner and his trainer is in excellent form.
ahorse 