Category: Racing diary

 

Just the one selection for Monday, Bated Breath in the 4.10 at Pontefract.

 

Just 2 selections for Sunday.

The 2.35 at Ascot looks to be between Cockney Trucker and You’re the Top.  Slight preference is for Cockney Trucker.

At Wincanton Brenin Cwmtudu looks well handicapped in the 2.45.

30 runners are set to line up for the Scottish National at Ayr tomorrow in a race that has only gone to a horse at odds of shorter than 12/1 once in the last 9 years. The lighter weights have also tended to do well although Grey Abbey did carry 11 stone 12 to victory back in 2004. Halcon Generlardais has run well in the race in the past finishing 2^nd in 2008 off a mark of 169. He runs off just 150 tomorrow so the handicapper has given him a real chance if he can recover his old form. He probably needs more cut in the ground than he is likely to get which is a negative. Another to consider at the top of the weights is Gone to Lunch. He was second last season and now runs off a mark 8 lbs lower. He was 5^th in the Hennessy earlier in the season off a mark of 11 lbs higher than he will have tomorrow. He will like the ground and has the benefit of Barry Geraghty in the saddle. At the other end of the weights I would give both Merigo and Dom D’Orgeval a chance. Merigo stays well as he showed when winning the Eider Chase last season and is on a reasonable mark. He has won twice before at Ayr and although most of his form is on soft ground he has won on good. Dom D’Orgeval has rediscovered his form of late and has been placed in his last 3 starts all in good company. If he handles the ground OK he could go well.

Gone To Lunch would have to be the selection although the other 3 all have each way chances.

Elsewhere on the card at Ayr Kangaroo Court could upset the favourite in the 2.15. He will handle the conditions and didn’t run badly last time at Cheltenham. Paul Nicholls can take the 3.55 with the in form Red Harbour with AP McCoy on board. I would be inclined to have a small each way saver on Andytown in this as long as all 8 runners stand their ground.

All Middleton Dene’s career wins have come on good or good to soft ground so he should be suited by conditions tomorrow in the 5.05. He won last time out and goes well for Graham Lee. Although his jumping can be suspect this longer trip might help him in that respect. Of the others Nikos Extra is not without a chance.

The best of the flat racing comes from Newbury. Marcus Tregoning has trained the winner of the 1.30 twice in the last 8 runnings and is represented this time by Latansaa. He was a good 3^rd on his only run last season which was over course and distance. Another once raced colt, Engulf looks over priced at 20/1. A little juice in the ground would probably aid his cause.

The three that make the most appeal in the 2.00 are Akmal, Manifest and Harbinger. Akmal might find the trip a bit too short so the lightly raced pair of Manifest and Harbinger would be my two against the field.

The 2.35 is a trappy looking handicap. The Roger Charlton pair of Brunston and Cityscape are interesting runners at big prices with the latter having the best chance as he is well drawn and more likely to be suited by the ground. He lacks a recent run though and it could pay to side with the Lincoln 3^rd Mull of Killough.

In the 3.05 the selection is Lady of the Desert although Deirdre could go well at a bigger price. The 3.40 sees Arcano and Canford Cliffs renew their rivalry from last season. I like both these two but over this trip I fancy Canford Cliffs to come out on top. Rodrigo De Torres could just surprise a few people at a very big price.

Total Command showed enough when 2^nd at Newbury last season to suggest he will be winning races sooner rather than later and the 4.15 looks an opportunity for him to get off the mark.

Fair Trade was only beaten a head in a Newmarket maiden on his only start last season and although the form of the race has not so far worked out particularly well he looks the percentage call here. Udabaa was third on his racecourse debut at Kempton and looks the type to improve. He looks the obvious danger.

Luca Cumani is always a trainer to follow in the better handicaps and his Forte Dei Marmi, who has been gelded since his last run, looks to be in with a good chance in the 5.20.

There is an evening meeting at Doncaster where Haadeth and Deacon Blues look the pair to concentrate on in the 5.40. Deacon Blues may want a little more cut in the ground so I have a narrow preference for Haadeth. In the 6.50 I quite like the chances of the course and distance winner Dangerous Midge.

At Bangor-on-Dee Cool Mission and Abbevillian clash in the 2.05. Coool Mission has created a good impression when winning his last two starts while Abbevillian has quite strong form both in bumpers and over hurdles and comes here fresh. It is difficult to split the pair but if pushed for a selection I would go with Cool Mission.

The picture of Paris Pike, former winner of the Scottish National is courtesy of the artist Jenny Lupton.  The picture of the parade ring at Newbury is courtesy of the artist Lisa Miller.

 

The Grand Nationals come thick and fast at this time of year and the Scottish version is next up on Saturday. The Ayr meeting starts tomorrow and in the opener at 1.45 my selection is the recent Haydock winner McMurrough. He has an 8 lbs penalty as a result of his recent success but now that he has struck form I will stick with him.

Carole’s Legacy has not been out of the first 2 this season in 5 starts. She has a big weight to carry in the 4.00 but should once again give a good account of herself.

Calusa Crystal found his stamina tested a bit too far last time at Newbury but back at 2 miles he should go well in the 5.00 at Cheltenham. Gala Evening has been in good form on the flat and if he can carry that over to the jumps game he would go close in the 6.45. Overrule has been off the course for 185 days but has gone well fresh in the past and will have ground conditions in his favour in the 7.50.

The main flat meeting is at Newbury. The 2.10 at the Berkshire track is a competitive 3 year old handicap. Richard Hannon saddles Planet Red who disappointed on his last run which was over a mile. Back to 7 furlongs here he could be a contender off what looks a reasonable handicap mark. Rebel Soldier and High Constable both come into the contest having won their last start on the all weather. The handicapper may have taken a bit of a chance in allocating ratings of 88 and 87 to this pair and along with Planet Reed they would form my short list.

In the 3.15 Bullet Train and Rasmy are a couple of lightly raced possible improvers. In the 4.25 I would consider High Ransom and Mujdeya. They both ran once as juveniles and look the types to do well at 3. Mujdeya, who holds an Oaks entry is my selection but watch out for High Ransom in the future.

Up at Thirsk Hawkeyethenoo looks favourably treated off a mark of 72.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Ruth Buchanan.

 

In the Craven Stakes (Newmarket 3.35) the 3 that make most appeal are Elusive Pimpernel, Markazzi and Morana. At 11/8 Elusive Pimpernel looks rather a short price given that he probably wants further and the stable have not made a good start to the season. Morana has failed to settle in some of his races thus far so my selection goes to Markazzi.

I don’t have a particularly strong view on the 4.10 although I would expect Kingdom of Fife to be in the shake up. In the 5.20 Official Style and Tamaathul look the two to concentrate on.

Vamizi won well last time out at Exeter and it might be worth staying with him in the Cheltenham 2.45. The 3.20 looks an open race. Easter Legend, Chilli Rose, Dansimar and Miss Overdrive are the 4 that I considered. With the ground in his favour C’Monthehammers looks to have an each way chance in the 3.55.

At Ripon my selections are Serva Jugum in the 3.10 and Antoniola in the 3.45.

There is some quality racing under both codes tomorrow. Starting with Newmarket in the 1.50 there are several runners that have already shown some promise as well as a few interesting newcomers. Balducci has been placed in his two starts on the all weather and there may well be more to come from him. He drops back to 7 furlongs here having been running over a mile but his pedigree would suggest that he may need further. Esaar has also been placed on both his starts and has created a favourable impression. Fair Trade only ran once as a juvenile finishing second over a mile at Newmarket beaten a head. The 4^th home that day was well beaten this week which just lets the form down a little he ran with promise and should make a decent 3 year old. Given that there are debutants from the Stoute and Haggas stables this is a difficult race to assess. I am hoping for good runs from Esaar and Fair Trade with the latter being my selection.

The 3.00 is a valuable race for 3 year olds and looks competitive with the big stables represented. Ameer is the Godolphin runner. He showed a willing attitude when winning at Newmarket and Newbury last season before disappointing slightly in a Group 3 in France. Doctor Zhivago has won both his starts, albeit on the all weather at Southwell. His level of form is well below that of some of his rivals but he is well bred and would not be in the field if his trainer didn’t think he had a chance. Sir Michael Stoute’s Longliner was a beaten favourite on both his starts as a two year old but he is related to numerous winners and this step up to 10 furlongs could bring out the best in him. I will burden Longliner with my selection although the Irish challenger Don Carlos could well pose a threat.

There are only 7 runners in the Free Handicap at 3.35. Mata Keranjang was very consistent last season and sets a fair level of form. He should be suited by going and distance and I expect him to run well. The other one I like is Audacity of Hope, the mount of Kieren Fallon. Audacity of Hope is a course and distance winner and Fallon has won on twice from 3 attempts.

Henry Cecil has two runners in the Nell Gwynne Stakes at 4.10. On jockey bookings Principal Role looks the first choice rather than Jacqueline Quest. Principal Role won a Yarmouth maiden on her only start last season despite rearing in the stalls and losing ground at the start. She drops back to 7 furlongs here despite the fact that she holds an Oaks entry. Safina, whose dam was the top class miler Russian Rhythm, showed plenty of potential when 3^rd in a Newmarket maiden on her only run at two. She looks one to follow. Kieren Fallon rides Music Show for Mick Channon. She won 3 of her 4 starts as a two year old and should b e winning more races this year. Safina and Principal Role look the pair with most scope for improvement.

In the 4.45 Henry Cecil runs Timepiece, a half sister to Passage of Time and Father Time. She won a listed contest at Newmarket last season and could well be Group class this season. She should have no trouble staying this 9 furlong trip and is one for the shortlist. Rumoush represents the Marcus Tregoning stable. She is another beautifully bred filly being a half sister to Ghanaati and Mawatheeq. She won her race nicely despite losing ground at the start and comes into the “could be anything” category. . She won her only race last season which was on the all weather at Lingfield. The other one I like in this race is John Dunlop’s runner, Mufarrh. He showed useful form last season running 3 times and winning on his final start in what looked like a decent maiden at Leicester beating Official Style and State Fair. Timepiece is very much respected here but for my selection I am going for Mufaarh.

There are positive reports about Sir Michael Stoute’s unraced colt Desert Myth and he could well be the answer in the 5.20. The 5.55 is a 20 runner handicap which at this early stage of the season will take some solving. I will put forward a couple of possible for you to consider in Kaptain Kirkup and Racy. The former is in the same ownership as The Osteopath and Osteopathic Remedy. You’ve guessed it, owner Kevin Kirkup is an osteopath and make no bones about it, he has done well with his horses so far! Kaptain Kirkup won 3 times last season and finished runner up in a listed race at Redcar. He is on a high enough mark as a result of his success last season but he is certainly one to keep an eye on. A winner at Pontefract last season we probably haven’t seen the best of Racy and he appeals as one to progress this year.

Oldjoesaid heads the weights in the 3.10 up at Beverley. Formerly trained by Henry Candy he is now with Kevin Ryan. He is best with some give in the ground and is not badly handicapped if he has conditions in his favour. Rebel Duke and Master Rooney are others to consider in this race.

In the 4.20 Layla’s Dancer has scope for improvement and comes from a stable bang in form while in the 5.30 my selection is Beat The Rush trained by Julie Camacho. He looks a stayer and this trip should suit him.

There is jumps racing at Cheltenham where old favourite Voy Por Ustedes is set to give chunks of weight away to his 7 rivals. It would be great to see Voy Por bounce back to form after what has been a poor season by his high standards. He should go well here I feel although Kangaroo Court and possibly Exmoor Ranger are likely threats.

I will put 3 horses forward for the handicap hurdle at 4.30, Alderley Rover, Qroktou and Sono Sasta.

It is certainly an interesting g days racing and I hope I have pointed the way to a few winners.

Today’s pictures are courtesy of the artist Jane Dunn.

 

On recent form I won’t be winning the tipster of the month award but things can only get better so here goes with tonight’s words of wisdom. There are only a couple of weeks left in the jumps season but we still have the Punchestown Festival and the Scottish National to come plus the Whitbread Gold Cup or whatever it is called these days. The jumps racing tomorrow comes from Exeter where I am going try a bit of an outsider in the opener at 2.10. Uffa Fox is named after a famous sailor and is trained by Ben de Haan who rode Corbiere to victory in the 1983 Grand National. Uffa Fox will appreciate the going at Exeter and at around 12/1 looks reasonable value.

Another outsider that I considered is Silverburn in the 3.40. He is a full brother to Denman but his form has been a bit sketchy for some time. He could be due a return to form but he prefers soft ground so is unlikely to get his conditions. Apart from Uffa Fox my other selection at Exeter is Express Leader for Paul Nicholls in the 2.40.

At Pontefract the likely favourite in the 2.20 is the cleverly named Tangerine Trees. He is by Mind Games out of Easy to Imagine and if you bought the Beatles Sergeant Pepper album you should appreciate where the name comes from.

Trainer Michael Jarvis has had 2 winners from his last 8 runners and his Gay Mirage is in with a chance in the 2.50. She caught the eye when running on in the closing stages of a Nottingham maiden on her only run at two and she is bred to appreciate this trip or even further.

Another horse with a Beatles connection, Harrison George is on my list to follow at the moment. Although he is set to carry top weight in the 3.20h is trainer Richard Fahey is in tremendous form. He has not previously won over a mile though and on this occasion I prefer the course and distance winner Fastnet Storm.

Fastnet Storm is trained by Tom Tate who also has a fancied runner in the 4.20 in the 4 year old Distant Memories. He is a consistent sort and I would not rule him out but he is best suited by some give in the ground so I would probably avoid him if the ground is unsuitable. Hidden Brief is another that stands out in this race but this one would also not want the ground to be too quick.

At Yarmouth some of the top stables are represented in the maiden at 2.30. The Michael Jarvis trained Towbaat is one to look out for based on her promising run over course and distance last season.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Sally Martin.

Bye for now.

The 3 day Aintree meeting didn’t work out too well for me although State of Play repaid each way support in the National. I am sure that no one would begrudge AP McCoy his win, in the way it was the best result (apart from State of Play winning I suppose!) Don’t Push It was a worthy winner on the day. He had shown plenty of ability in the past but I always had him down as a slightly unreliable jumper. If you look through the form book though he was only beaten three parts of a length by Denman early in his career off level weights. McCoy is a credit to the sport and let’s hope he gets the recognition he deserves outside of the racing world.

Flat racing steps up a gear later this week with meetings at Newbury and Newmarket but tomorrow it is low key stuff at Folkestone and Warwick. At the Kent track Uncle Keef has an each way shout in the 5.00. He is well bred and could be on a lenient handicap mark.

At Windsor the 4.50 could be an informative race as there are several runners that showed promise last season. The trip of Nibani, Desert Drive and Regal Park all went into my notebook last season after encouraging runs as juveniles and are worth looking out for in this race.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Katy Sodeau.

 

 

Kelso 4.20 Premier Sagas

Kelso 5.20 Nuts N Bolts

Curragh 4.15 Fame and Glory

People will often try and tell you that the Grand National is just a lottery and anything can win on the day. This is certainly not the case as it takes a certain kind of horse to win this unique contest. For a start the distance (or “trip” in racing parlance) of 4.5 miles makes this the longest race in the UK jumping calendar. The first thing the winner will need therefore is stamina. The fences are perhaps not as daunting as they once were but they are difficult nonetheless putting jumping ability at a premium. There are others things to factor in such as the going, the trainer, the jockey and the weight the horse has to carry.

Horses for courses

The Aintree fences are unlike those at any other course and therefore previous form over those obstacles is an important consideration. Apart from the big race itself there are two other races over the National fences, the Becher Chase over 3.25 miles and the Topham Trophy over 2.75 miles.

This year both the 2009 and 2008 Grand National winners line up again. Last season Mon Mome was an easy winner and had finished 10^th the season before. He has always been quite a consistent runner in the better long distance handicaps and is a good jumper with abundant stamina. His last run was very encouraging as he made up ground in the latter stages to finish 3^rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He is 7 lbs higher in the weights than last season but is a serious contender. He is probably best with some give in the ground and if it were to dry out a lot this would be a slight negative for him.

The 2008 winner Comply or Die was runner up last season and is a very good jumper. He has been prepared carefully for this race and has only run twice this season. He gets on very well with his talented jockey Timmy Murphy. He is best on a decent surface and would not want the ground too soft. He is also a past winner of the Eider Chase at Newcastle over 4 miles and has a solid record in this type of event.

As well as Mon Mome and Comply or Die the 3^rd, 4^th, 5th and 6^th home last season all reappear. My Will (3^rd), State of Play (4^th) Cerium (5^th) and Big Fella Thanks (6^th) all have course form and need to be considered. Cerium pulled off a big surprise last season as he was a complete outsider at 200/1. He clearly handles the fences but his overall form suggests that he is not good enough to win, although he may well complete the course again. My Will has been competing consistently in the top staying chases for several years but his jockey from last season Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride a different horse. I have to take the view that Mr Walsh is a better judge than I am so My Will gets the thumbs down. I will talk about State of Play and Big Fella Thanks later.

We also have Snowy Morning who was 9^th last year and 3^rd in 2008 and King John’s Castle who was runner up in 2008. King John’s Castle is hard to weigh up as he has done very little in the last 2 years. Despite finishing 2^nd I still have slight doubts about his stamina and he may also need softer ground than he is likely to get so I am going to put a line through him. Snowy Morning has got round the course twice and put in a promising effort when 3^rd at Leopardstown on his most recent run over a trip much too short for him.

We also have a couple of past winners of the Becher Chase in the line up. Black Apalachi was a runaway Becher winner in 2008 on heavy ground. He has attempted the National twice. He fell at the second fence in 2008 but last year was tanking along in front when a little unlucky to unseat his rider at the 22^nd fence. He comes here in good from as on his last run he was runner up to Vic Venturi over 3 miles 1 furlong on soft ground at Fairyhouse. Vic Venturi won the 2009 Becher but he has never won a race with more than 8 runners and the hurly burly of the 40 runner National might not be his bag of oats.

Irish Raptor has shown a liking for Aintree winning the Topham last year and coming 2^nd in 2008. He has also finished 6^th in the Becher Chase on two occasions. He has therefore run over these fences 4 times without falling. He was 5^th in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter in 2008 over 4 miles 1.5 furlongs so may have the stamina to go with his jumping. There are worse outsiders. Palypso de Creek is a previous winner of the French National and was 4^th in the Becher Chase in November. He ran well when 2^nd in the Pater Marsh Chase at Haydock in January over 3 miles and is another that could run well at a big price.

Of the 2 Becher winners Black Apalachi makes most appeal, while Mon Mome, Comply or Die, Snowy Morning, State of Play, and Big Fella Thanks look the pick of those horses who have run well in the National itself previously, while Irish Raptor has the look of an Aintree specialist.

First timers and big race winners

12 of the lat 19 winners of the race were running in the National for the first time so we need to look away from Aintree form as well. I like to study form in the Welsh, Scottish and Irish Nationals and in other good quality staying chases.

This year we have previous winners of the Irish (Niche Market), Scottish (Hello Bud) and Welsh (Dream Alliance) Nationals. Niche Market has not won since his success in the Irish National but has run well on a couple of occasions. He was 3^rd in the Hennessy Gold Cup, a classy race run at Newbury and was only narrowly beaten by Tricky Trickster in a Grade 2 Chase, again at Newbury. He jumps well and is best suited by good ground so the more it dries out the better for him. Hello Bud won the Somerset and Southern Nationals as well as the Scottish last season and is a thorough stayer. He has not been at his best this season but a return to form would see him in with a chance. He has also run over the Aintree fences before when 5th (last of the horses to finish) in the Becher Chase. He is another that would not want the ground too soft. Dream Alliance was a good winner of the Welsh National at Chepstow beating a horse that has since won well himself and he was also runner up in the 2007 Hennessy. His best form has come on soft ground however and it seems unlikely that he will have conditions in his favour. He can also make jumping errors that would be costly at Aintree. Another with form in long distance races is Flintoff. He has been 6^th in an Irish National, 3^rd in a Scottish National and runner up in a Midlands National. He also finished runner up in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock in 2008 over 3 miles 4.5 furlongs. He is not the most reliable but on a going day could finish in the first 6.

Sticking with big race winners State of Play (already mentioned above) won the Henessy in 2006. He has only had one run since his 4^th in the National last year and he goes particularly well after a break. He is ideally suited by decent ground and looks to have a lot in his favour.

The class horse in the race is Madison Du Berlais who won the 2008 Hennessy and developed into a top class chaser last season. He is set to carry 11 stone 10 however and to win off that sort of weight is a big ask.

A couple of other newcomers to the race to throw into the mix are Maljimar and The Package. The Package has had a successful season. He was 3^rd in the Badger Ales Chase (3 miles 1.5 furlongs) at Wincanton before winning over the same distance at Cheltenham in December. He was a fast finishing runner up in the William Hill Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival over an extended 3 miles. He is clearly a talented if somewhat quirky individual and although his stamina is unproven his trainer thinks he will get the trip. He is well handicapped but two things just put me off. He is only a 7 year old and lacks the experience of some of his rivals and jockey Timmy Murphy has elected to ride Comply or Die instead. Maljimar was a close second in last season’s William Hill Trophy and has been prepared specifically for this race. He is best on decent ground but there is a slight doubt about his stamina. Of the two my slight preference is for Maljimar.

I just prefer Niche Market to Dream Alliance and Hello Bud so my two to take forward from this section are Niche Market and Maljimar.

The Irish Challenge

The Irish have a fair record in the race and Snowy Morning, Black Apalachi, Vic Venturi and King John’s Castle have already been mentioned. Ballyholland and Arbor Supreme are further Irish contenders. Ballyholland is a sound jumper who won the Galway Plate in May last year over 2.75 miles. There are stamina doubts about this one and I prefer Arbor Supreme who won over 3.75 miles at Punchestown in November 2008. He ran well on his last start over a trip on the short side for him, has won several races in big fields before and should go on the ground OK.

Jockeys and trainers to follow?

Champion trainer Paul Nicholls and Champion Jockey AP McCoy are both still looking for their first win in the National. Nicholls has several runners but his stable jockey Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Big Fella Thanks rather than Tricky Trickster or My Will, which is a tip in itself. Big Fella Thanks was 6^th last season when only 7 years old and was in good form on his most recent run winning over 2.5 miles at Newbury.

AP McCoy has chosen to ride Don’t Push it in preference to Can’t Buy Time. Don’t Push it was finishing well when 2^nd at Cheltenham over 3 miles 3.5 furlongs so his stamina may be OK and he does have a touch of class. His jumping can be a bit in and out though and there are others I prefer.

Could we have the first ever win by a woman jockey? Possibly as the very talented Nina Carberry rides Character Building who has some useful form. He was 3^rd in the 2007 Hennessy and won the Kim Muir Chase over 3 miles 1.5 furlongs at the Cheltenham Festival last season. He hasn’t done much in two runs this season but has a chance on the best of his form and if he is good enough then his jockey certainly will be.

Cloudy Lane is trained by the son of the legendary trainer of Red Rum Ginger McCain and would be a popular winner. He is no forlorn hope either as he finished 5^th in 2008 but unseated his rider at The Chair fence 12 months ago when going well. He won the Peter Marsh Chase over 3 miles last season on soft ground but is generally better on a decent surface. He has a reasonable weight in this year’s race and has a chance.  I narrowly prefer him to Character Building.

Front runners

What of the remainder. Joe Lively and Eric’s Charm are a couple of bold front runners who, if they get into a rhythm are likely to be at the head of affairs for some time at least and would give you an exciting run for your money.

Joe Lively has actually won 7 times over 3 miles or more which is quite an impressive stat. Eric’s Charm comes here on the back of a couple of wins. He has run well in good company on a number of occasions and was a good second in the Whitbread Gold Cup at Sandown back in 2006 (My Will was 3^rd) over a trip of 3 miles 5.5 furlongs.  This pair would probably give you an exciting run for your money but don’t quite warrant inclusion on my final short list.

Weight

Only once since 1983 has a weight in excess of 11 stone been carried to victory (Hedgehunter in 2005). Now that stat may be less reliable these days due to a change in the handicapping approach but it is something we can’t ignore completely.

Looking back at my comments above I have a (rather long) short list of Mon Mome, Comply or Die, State of Play, Big Fella Thanks, Snowy Morning, Black Apalachi, Irish Raptor, Niche Market, Maljimar, Arbor Supreme and Cloudy Lane. Five of those are set to carry more than 11 stone!

I have a lot of respect for Mon Mome but he is the first of my short list to be dropped. Back to back winners of the National are very rare indeed, ideally he would want softer ground, he recent run at Cheltenham may have taken something out of him and he has a lot of weight. I will also relegate Black Apalachi. He has failed to complete the course on both occasions he has tried it, he likes soft ground and he too has a lot of weight (he is actually 8 lbs higher than last year). This leaves me with 3 horses with over 11 stone to carry, Comply or Die, Niche Market and Cloudy Lane.

Of the lighter weights Big Fella Thanks is a major player but at single figure odds I am not convinced he is value for money and he gets the red card. Maljimar just has too many stamina doubts and somewhat reluctantly he goes as well. This leaves me with 4 in the below 11 stone category, Snowy Morning, State of Play, Arbor Supreme and Irish Raptor.

I would suggest you might concentrate on those 7 but if pushed for a single selection I would take a chance on State of Play.

The 4 paintings featured are by (in order of appearance), Katie Scorgie, Sarah Clegg, Sarah Aspinall and Margaret Barrett.  My thanks to the artists for allowing me to use their work.

The photo of last year’s winner Mon Mome is by courtesy of Kate Tann.