Category: Racing diary

 

The Aintree Grand National meetings starts tomorrow and the first race at 2.0 sees a rematch between Big Bucks and Grand Crus who were first and second in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham. Aintree probably doesn’t suit Big Bucks as much as Cheltenham and I feel that Grand Crus represents the value here.

I am going to avoid the odds on favourite in the 2.30 as well in the hope that Grandouet will be suited by the track at Aintree.

The 4.50 looks a fascinating contest with Medermit, Wishfull Thinking and Royal Charm all in with a chance. Medermit should appreciate the step up in trip and is the selection.

My short list for the 5.25 consists of Bothy, Get me out of here and Megastar.

At Ripon trainer Tim Easterby looks to have good chances with Mariachi Man (3.55) and King of the Celts (4.30).

Picture courtesy of Sarah Clegg

 

Selections for Wednesday

Beverley 3.10 Beat the Bell

Kempton 7.40 Tasfeya

Nottingham 3.20 Sluggsy Morant

 

Well, we had a couple of winners today including a 10/1 shot.  I have a couple of recommendations for tomorrow.

In the Doncaster 3.55 Hoof It  looks the type to continue improving after winning 4 times last season.  Kieren Fallon rides.  Horseradish is a consistent sort and another that won 4 times last year.  He looks one to follow this season but would prefer some rain. Kelly’s Eye is another to consider after 3 wins last season all at Ripon.  Horseradish would be my tip if there is some give in the ground otherwise Hoof It would be my preference.

I liked the way that Well Sharp won at Ayr last season and he could be nicely handicapped in the 4.55.

 

With Taqleed out of the Lincoln this afternoon I will switch my selection to Prime Exhibit and Our Joe Mac.

 

The flat turf season steps up a gear tomorrow with the Lincoln Handicap which is the 3.10 at Doncaster. The race used to be held at Lincoln until that racecourse closed. The last Lincoln run there was in 1964 when Mighty Ghurka was the winner ridden by Peter Robinson.

My initial fancies for this year’s renewal were Taqleed and Our Joe Mac. Neither looks to have an ideal draw but I will stick with them. Taqleed looks to be potentially better than handicap class, is lightly raced and has already had a taste of big field handicaps as he was 6^th in the Cambridgeshire. Our Joe Mac was a winner at Haydock last season and ran several creditable races in defeat. It may turn out that he needs a bit further and some more give in the ground but he is worth a small each way here. Another to consider is Irish Heartbeat who won at this meeting last season.

In the 2.05 my selection is the lightly raced Eton Forever. He won at Kempton last May beating Afsare who went on to win at Royal Ascot.

Bated Breath won his first 3 starts last season and looks a horse to follow in sprints this term. He runs in the 2.35.

Communicator was a promising 4^th in a back end maiden at Newmarket last season over 7 furlongs. Bred to get further he should be able to improve on his debut run in the 4.15.

Over the jumps at Chepstow I am torn between Rangitoto and Storming Gale in the 2.45. Rangitoto gets 6 lbs pull at the weights and that might just give him the edge.

Picture courtesy of the artist Jo Stockdale.

Good luck

 

Selection for tomorrow;

Sadler’s Risk in the 3.20 at Leicester

 

Finding the winner of the World’s greatest race us not easy but by following a few “golden rules” we can at least be in with a sporting chance.

Stamina

The race is run over four and a half miles – a real marathon for a racehorse. Our horse needs to have proven stamina. Form in the Grand National itself, or one of the other “Nationals” such as the Welsh, Irish, Scottish or Midlands versions is a good pointer. Another long distance race is the Eider Chase over 4 miles at Newcastle. I would be inclined to disregard any horse that has not won over 3 miles or further.

Age

Most winners come from the 8 – 12 age bracket.

Jumping

The National fences are unique and difficult. Previous form over the fences is a plus, either in the big race itself or something like the Becher Chase which is run in November each year.

It is also worth noting how many times a horse has fallen in the past. More than two falls on the record would be a worry.

The hustle and bustle

There are 40 runners in the race so previous form in competitive races with big fields is important. Apart from the races already mentioned races such as the Hennessy (Newbury), the Racing Post Chase (Kempton), the Bet365 Gold Cup (Sandown) or any race at the Cheltenham Festival come into this category.

The Irish challenge

Over the years the Irish have had their fair share of success and form in the big races across the Irish Sea is worth noting.

The National as a target

I always like give serious consideration to a horse that has been targeted at the race all season rather then one that comes to Aintree as an afterthought.

The going

Most horse have a preference for better ground or prefer the mud. It is worth checking that your selection will not be inconvenienced by the going.

Weight

It used to be said that you could disregard horses carrying more than 11 stone but that statistic has proved less reliable recently. Worth just keeping an eye on though.

The race is a handicap which means that the runners carry different weights depending on their past form.  It is sometimes possible to spot a horse that may be leniently treated by the handicapper.

Jockey

Not absolutely crucial but it is certainly a nice to have if your horse is ridden by a leading jockey.

Next week we will have a look at the runners that meet our criteria.

Picture courtesy of the artist Katie Scorgie

 

I have been concentrating my efforts on the forthcoming flat season and the Grand National so my preview of the racing tomorrow will be brief.

At Newbury Evella may be value in the 2.15. She has won 3 admittedly modest races this season but jumps soundly and is clearly on the upgrade.

In the 2.50 the Nicky Henderson runners are well fancied but are priced up accordingly. Of the outsiders Alverstone and Mizzurka make some appeal each way.

The booking of Ruby Walsh to ride Maktu in the 3.25 looks interesting while in the 4.00 Kid Cassidy looks the one they all have to beat.

 

Tomorrow’s racing looks decidedly tricky.

The 2.40 at Haydock only has 5 runners and a case could be made for all of them. Humbie probably needs further. Glencree will appreciate the drying ground and is marginally preferred to Thumbs Up.

We were on Red Merlin last time when he won at 6/1. He is out again at Hereford in the 2.00 but will be odds on this time. I think I will bank my winnings and give him a miss this time.

Sweet Irony has been knocking on the door and Alan King has probably found a winning opportunity for him in the Warwick 2.20. 11/8 looks short enough though given the presence of a dangerous looking Philip Hobbs runner.

A day to keep the powder dry I think.

Picture courtesy of the artist Ruth S Harris.

 

The main race tomorrow is the Midlands National at Uttoxeter where the Jonjo O’Neill pair of Synchronised make some appeal. Later in the 3.35 the Warwick winner Stoney’s Traesure looks to be going the right way.

My best hope at Ffos Las is Buck Mulligan in the 3.10