Cheltenham 2007 – The newsletter
Day 1
Welcome to the first edition of the Russellform newsletter (click here to start receiving these newsletters via email).
I will be previewing all 24 of the festival races and issuing a bulletin for each day. So without further ado….
2.00 Supreme Novices Hurdle
In recent years the “trends theory” has attracted an increasing band of followers. While I don’t like to be ruled by stats I don’t think they can be ignored. The two obvious ones concerning this race are that 10 of last 11 winners had won on their previous outing, and 29 of last 32 were aged 5 or 6. Armed with that information let’s have a look at some of the main contenders.
Amaretto Rose fits the profile and is perfectly equipped to deal with very soft ground. She started her career winning a bumper in testing conditions at Towcester which is one of the stiffest tracks in the country.
Her one defeat to date, at Aintree last year, was at the end of the season so would not concern me. She is going to be very hard to beat as not only was her bumper win on heavy but her two novice wins have come on soft ground.
Amaretto Rose has the strongest form and will love the ground and her 7lbs mares’ weight allowance is a major plus. In-form fillies are hard to beat and she is a worthy favourite. On the down side she is relatively inexperienced and unproven on the track.
Hide the Evidence won a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse in desperate ground; in fact the meeting was eventually abandoned. He beat the well regarded Clopf that day to complete a 4 timer. He doesn’t meet the “trend” as he was beaten last time out but he can be forgiven that as it was in the Irish Champion Hurdle. The main point against him would be that he has done his winning on right handed tracks.
De Valira is a horse that I have always liked. He beat Catch M at Christmas at Leopardstown in a thrilling finish. The talented De Valira is a half brother to the ill fated Valiramix, who suffered a fatal accident in the 2002 Champion Hurdle. The case against De Valira is really one of inexperience as he has only raced 5 times. He was also beaten on his last run when failing to catch a 50/1 shot at Fairyhouse after suffering some interference during the race. In addition the stable have not been in the best of form lately. He does have a potent turn of foot though.
De Soto is one I would have been keen to throw in as an each-way possible had the ground not been testing. Paul Webber’s horses are in fine form at the moment and he also has form at the festival as he was 2nd in the 2005 Champion Bumper behind Missed That. It seems certain that he will not get his favoured good ground though so I will draw a line through him.
Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has two runners in this. Kicks for Free and Granit Jack. Ruby Walsh rides Granit Jack and he rarely gets it wrong when he has the choice of Nicholls runners. Granit Jack could go well in this. He cost a great deal and then disappointed but was found to have stomach ulcers and that has been treated now. He loves soft ground and the drop down in distance will suit him. He was a facile winner of a race at Taunton on his last start and he clearly has the stamina for this as he won 3 times in France over fences at two and a half miles. He has an each way chance I would say.
Kicks for Free won 3 bumpers at Wincanton last season. He started his hurdles career with a victory at Haydock but has since been beaten twice. A mistake at the last proved costly when 2nd to Tidal Bay at Cheltenham and he was found to have burst a blood vessel when 3rd behind De Soto at Christmas. I have the feeling that the ground will not be ideal for him tomorrow and that he may also be more effective on a flat track.
An interesting contender is the ex South African flat horse Tyson. He has winning form on the flat in both South Africa and Dubai and also won on his hurdles debut at Haydock last month. He is interesting at around 16s or 20s.
My short list would come down to Amaretto Rose, Hide the Evidence, De Valira, Tyson and Granit Jack.
At around 9/4 Amaretto Rose is just a bit short for my liking but she does fit the stats nicely. If you want to go in search of better value I would go for De Valira and Hide the Evidence with Granit Jack the best each way value.
2.35 Arkle Trophy
On the stats front, only one front runner has made all (or most) since 1980. Well fancied 5 year olds with the 5 lbs allowance have done well in the past.
There are probably two ways you can go in assessing this race. There are a number of front runners in the field and a frantic pace looks likely. You can either side with one of the pacesetters or go for a hold up horse.
Fair Along is the likely favourite and has won his races so far from the front. He was 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle last season, a race that has worked out tremendously well, and has an unblemished 3 from 3 record over fences so far.
If you want to pick holes in his chances, his wins have come in small fields (6, 5 and 4) and he is normally a front runner but is almost certain to be taken on for the lead here by the likes of Lennon and Gemini Lucy and front runners aplenty could make him go too fast.
I'm not negative about Fair Along but I prefer others, partly because of the price. I am also afraid that the front runners may set the race up for a “stalking horse.” On the flat Fair Along won at places like Southwell and Wolverhampton and I just can’t see that being part of an Arkle winner’s CV.
Buena Vista has run well at the Festival in the past and is not out of it. There is a suspicion that he is more effective on better ground and he will not have the benefit of AP MCCoy in the saddle.
My Way de Solzen is something of a favourite of mine and although he was beaten by Fair Along earlier in the season I just think he might be able to turn the tables tomorrow. Although he is almost certainly better suited by further he is an impressive jumper and I am banking on his stamina coming into play up the Cheltenham Hill.
I also like Don't Push It who is a hold-up horse. His effort against Denman was an exceptional performance and that horse is warm favourite for the SunAlliance.
Don't Push It is a really good horse but I am slightly worried he may not get round as his jumping has not been entirely without its problems. However, this is the perfect race to run a stalking race with so many front runners so he has to be in with a big chance.
Good Spirit could be the value with the 5yo allowance. He jumped well last time when beaten by his stable companion Natal and as long as he has recovered from that rather gruelling race he could go well. He is an accurate jumper.
Faasel was 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle in 2005 and has won his only start over fences. He would be a possible each way shout but he has not looked the most resolute of battlers and lacks experience. Another Northern hope, Lennon, strikes me as the type to prefer a flat track.
It is of course quite feasible that Fair Along will go out in front and they just won’t see which way he went, but you have to take a view on these things and I am going for the hold up horses. In the testing conditions I am banking on stamina being key.
My Way de Solzen and Don’t Push It are my two against the field with slight preference for the former who has winning Festival form and is the better jumper.
Perhaps a small each way interests in Good Spirit.
3.15 Champion Hurdle
3.15 Champion Hurdle
What an epic this promises to be. They say you need courage and stamina to win a Champion Hurdle, well the top contenders this year have those qualities in abundance. The dilemma here is whether you go for the old Irish warriors Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace or the new grey on the block, Detroit City.
All 3 have an excellent record at Cheltenham. Brave Inca has Cheltenham form figures 131, Hardy Eustace 121132 and Detroit City an unblemished 111.
If we assume that the ground will be on the testing side it is also worth looking at the way the big 3 have performed in soft ground. Detroit City has won 12 times – twice on soft ground. Hardy Eustace has won 12 races with 6 in soft or worse while Brave Inca has won 14 times with 9 of those successes coming on ground that was at least soft. Those stats would seem to indicate that although all three handle soft ground perhaps Brave Inca handles it the best.
Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace have gone head to head 7 times and Brave Inca currently leads that individual battle 5-2.
There is only one direct form line between Detroit City and the Irish Pair. Detroit City beat Hardy Eustace by a length at Cheltenham in December but the grey was getting 4 lbs from the Irish veteran. Moreover it was a muddling sort of race that turned into a bit of a sprint so perhaps too much should not be read into that result.
The task facing Detroit City is a considerable one. Brave Inca is certainly brave and Hardy Eustace is undoubtedly hardy and the pair will not go down without a fight. This is a desperately difficult race to solve but I am going to side with Detroit City and take youth to overcome experience. The other two surely are not getting any better while it is conceivable that Detroit City just might. I will go for Detroit City, Hardy Eustace and Brave Inca to finish in that order.
There are negatives to Detroit City’s chance. The stable have been under a bit of a cloud with some of the inmates coughing. Jockey Richard Johnson has also expressed a few doubts about the suitability of very soft ground. In what will probably be a real test of stamina though, don’t forget that Detroit City was good enough to win the 2 mile 2 furlong Cesarewitch on the flat.
You could always take an alternative view. Over the last 20 years 71 5 year olds have run in the race and all have lost. This does not bode well for Detroit City! Against that since 1951 only 3 winners have been aged older than 8. Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace are aged 9 and 10 respectively.
OK then if we take the big three out what do we have left. Iktitaf racked up some wins early in the season but does not look tough enough for this, while Afsoun was put in his place by Straw Bear at Wincanton. Sublimity won in heavy ground last time but that was an egg and spoon race. He won on good to firm on the flat and I am not convinced he will stay in testing conditions. Acambo does not look good enough, simple as that.
I must admit I know very little about the French raider Marble Garden. He has won 4 times at Auteil and clearly handles soft ground.
Kawagino is overpriced as he goes best in strongly run races and has his ground this year unlike last year when seventh.
Asian Maze is respected but she has never won at this distance. She has the stamina though and handles the ground. She si not a forlorn hope.
That leaves Straw Bear. He will appreciate both the going and the likely strong pace and if the other 3 cut each other’s throats up front it is just possible he could mow them down late on.
Final answer though is Detroit City.
4.00 William Hill Trophy handicap chase
I began my analysis of this race by compiling a short list.
First up was New Alco who has run three blinders in defeat at Cheltenham this season and looks an obvious each-way bet. Graham Lee has said that this is his best ride of the week and he looks a ceratinty6 to be in the first 4.
New Alco has a UK record on good to soft/softer of: 1221222322 (2-10), goes well here and will love the soft going.
Nicky Henderson usually does well with his handicap chasers at the Festival and I quite like Juveigneur in this. He clearly doesn’t like Aintree but if we ignore his runs there his record stands up to the closest scrutiny. He won the Kim Muir at the 2005 Festival and he has also run with great credit in big handicaps. For example he was 2nd in the 2005 Whitbread, and this season he has been runner up in the Hennessey and third in the Welsh National. He recently had a run over hurdles where he won at Plumpton so should be spot on for this. He was also 2nd in this race last season, albeit on an 8 lbs higher mark.
Gallant Approach is lightly raced over fences with just the 5 runs. He won in soft ground at Newbury in November over 2.5 miles and stepped up to 3 miles in December he was a close 3rd to Kandjar D’Allier in heavy ground at Haydock. He has had a break since then which should suit him as he appears to go best when fresh.
I also looked at the top weight Little Brick, 3 times a winner at Auteil before joining David Pipe for a reported big “transfer fee.” He could hardly have been more impressive on his UK debut beating My Will at Wincanton. He will clearly relish the conditions but may just have too much weight.
At this point I was rather pleased with my 3 against the field of Juveigneur, New Alco and Gallant Approach until I looked at the stats for the race! It is 9 years since any horse carried 11 stone or more to victory in this race. Unfortunately my little select band of 3 are all set to carry more than 11 stone. Juveigneur 11.9, New Alco 11.4 and Gallant Approach 11.3. OK then, let’s revert to plan B and look at those carrying less than 11 stone.
This proved quite tricky.
Distant Thunder, a good second to Bob Bob Bobbin at Bangor on his reappearance/debut for Noel Chance, was strongly fancied for the Hennessy but was withdrawn late because of a bad blood count. His trainer has issued an upbeat bulletin and he has already attracted market support for this.
Rambling Minister’s best efforts over fences came when 2nd in bottomless ground at Kelso in December and and when he subsequently landed the AGFA Diamond handicap at Sandown.
The mare Heltornic has been in fine form of late winning her last two starts at Wetherby and Haydock and handles heavy going.
All in the Stars last won in February 2006 at Wincanton and has now come down to the same mark. His recent form has not been particularly encouraging though.
I am going to stick with my original short list of three but if you are put off by the negative stats then Distant Thunder would be my pick of those carrying less than 11 stone.
4.40 Cross country chase
I am always tempted to follow the horses that I know well from ordinary steeplechases but I have had my fingers burnt with that strategy. It does seem an event for specialists.
Spot the Difference would be one of the most popular winners of the week if the 14 year old course specialist could land this race for the third time. He has already won over the course twice this season but the handicapper has burdened him with a rating of 150 now and that might just stop him.
Heads on the Ground was an easy winner of a cross country race at Punchestown in February beating former Welsh National winner Silver Birch by 10 lengths.
Silver Birch would be one for the short list. He is an ex Paul Nicholls horse and the Ditcheat trainer has 3 of his current squad in the line up. Royal Auclair has been a great servant for Nicholls having finished runner up off top weight in a Grand National and 4th in a Gold Cup. Le Duc was 4th to Spot the Difference in December and is now better off at the weights. The testing ground will not really favour either Le Duc or Royal Auclair however. The 3rd Nicholls runner, the mare L’aventure possibly holds the best chance of his trio. She is an unpredictable sort and can be sulky but stays forever and will be suited by the ground.
Never Compromise is another to consider. He was some way behind Heads on the Ground at Punchestown but does have a pull at the weights.
For my selection however I am going with Heads on the Ground.
5.20 Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle
Gary Moore is quite a handicap hurdle specialist and his Altilhar looks an interesting runner. He has won a couple of novice hurdles this season at Fakenham and Ludlow and had a recent run on the all weather at Lingfield.
Silver Jaro won in heavy ground at Warwick in game style at the end of January and was twice a winner on the flat in France. He has had the required 3 runs over hurdles to qualify him for handicaps, has won in heavy going and is ridden by Tony McCoy.
Pouvoir cannot be left out of the calculations. He is held in high regard by his trainer and was an impressive winner at Kempton last time out. Before that he had only gone down to Degas Art by half as length at Aintree. He looks on a handy mark for this. He can get very upset in the preliminaries so you could leave any bet until you have watched him going to post.
Madroos is trained by Jim Culloty who was the jockey on Cheltenham legend Best Mate. Based on his win in heavy ground at Gowran Park in January Madroos would come into the reckoning.
Gaspara won the Imperial Cup at Sandown on Saturday and obviously comes into the equation with just a 4 lbs penalty.
Altihar was going to be my selection for this but I am not sure about the ground. He has never won on anything worse than good to soft and twice won on good to firm on the flat.
Gaspara is out again very quickly after her win at Sandown and that just puts me off her.
The ground has put me off Altihar (hope I don’t rue saying that) so I will go for Silver Jaro (each way) and Pouvoir as my two against the field.
If you want something at a bigger price then King’s Revenge at about 25/1 would be worth a look.
Anyway, I hope you enjoy the day’s racing and maybe back a winner or two.
Next instalment tomorrow night.
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