Category: Horse racing

 

Well, it is that time of year again when we have to try and unravel the puzzle that is the Grand National. So how do we go about finding the winner?

The race is over a distance of 4.5 miles so our winner will need stamina, or in the racing jargon, he will need to stay well.

The fences are unique and difficult so we need a horse that jumps well.

Lastly he will have to beat the other 39 runners so he will need some quality, we don’t just want a plodder. So we need a horse that stays, jumps well and has a touch of class – simples!

Horses for courses

Previous form over the National fences is a plus factor so a good starting point is to look at past runnings of the race, and also the Becher Chase which is run over the National fences (3.25 miles) in November.

Last year’s winner has retired but the 2^nd (Sunnyhillboy), 3^rd (Seabass), 4^th (Cappa Bleu) and 6^th (Ballabriggs) are all in the line up. Ballabriggs won the race in 2011 and comes here in reasonable form. He is a safe jumper and has not fallen in a race for over 5 years. He should go well but no horse has won the race twice since Red Rum and I just don’t think Ballabriggs is quite that good.

Sunnyhillboy was only beaten a nose last year but now has to carry 11 lbs more. His overall record is very good with a Cheltenham festival win on his CV as well as a 3^rd place in the Irish National. He is another that has the right credentials but the extra weight could just stop him from winning.

Seabass ran a blinder last year and showed he is in good form with a 3^rd at Fairyhouse on his latest run. He has more weight to carry this year and is another that I can see run well without actually winning.

Cappa Bleu carries less weight than last year and his preparation has gone well. A former Cheltenham Festival winner he was 3^rd in the Welsh National last season. He looks sure to go well.

Others with form over the National fences are Oscar Time, Always Waining, Join Together, Swing Bill and Big Fella Thanks. Oscar Time was runner up in 2011 but his subsequent form has been poor and at the age of 12 his chance may have gone. Always Waining was 4^th in the Becher Chase in 2011 and he has also run well in shorter races over these fences, winning the Topham Trophy 3 times. If his stamina lasts out he could go well – he certainly has an aptitude for the fences.

Join Together impressed when a fast finishing runner up in the Becher this season. Not without a chance on the evidence of that run but he does lack experience and there is a feeling that soft ground suits him best. Swing Bill was 4^th in the Becher and 10^th in last year’s National. He doesn’t seem good enough. Big Fella Thanks has run 3 times in the National finishing 6^th, 4^th and 7^th. He was also 3^rd in the Becher Chase this season. He has been in good from this season and should give a good account of himself again in the big race. I can’t see why he should actually win at the 4^th attempt though.

Cappa Bleu, Seabass, Sunnyhill Boy and Join Together are my main fancies from this group.

The class acts

I mentioned class at the outset and here are 5 runners that come into that category. Imperial Commander is the class horse in the race having won the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2010 beating Denman. He has had his injury problems which have restricted him to just one run in the last 2 years when a good second at Cheltenham in January. He is a safe jumper but almost all his wins have come at Cheltenham and the worry is that he may not take to the Aintree fences. If he does he could be a major player.

What a Friend is a dual Grade 1 winner and was runner up in the 2009 Hennessy Gold Cup. A quality sort when he puts it all together he was pulled up in the National 2 years ago when tiring.

Quel Esprit is an interesting runner. He is a Grade 1 winner over fences and has won over 3 miles. He has a touch of class but there are doubts over his stamina. The giant Joncol is another classy Irish raider. He is a Grade 1 winner and he has never actually fallen in his career. He would prefer soft ground however.

Roberto Goldback has always raced in decent events and won at Ascot earlier in the season. He is no forlorn hope.

Best from this group Imperial Commander and Quel Esprit.

Best of the rest

Colbert Station is the mount of champion jockey AP McCoy who has won 3 times on the horse from 6 rides. Colbert Station is on an upward curve having recently won over 3 miles at Leopardstown. The downside is his lack of experience.

On His Own is another well fancied challenger. He was tipped by many to win last year after a success over 3 miles at Gowran Park but he fell at Bechers on the second circuit while going nicely. Horses have won the National after falling the year before but it is generally a negative point and given the horse’s short odds I would tend to look elsewhere.

Teaforthree has impressive credentials. He won the 4 mile race at the Cheltenham festival last year. This season he was an excellent 6^th in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and followed this by taking the runners up spot in the Welsh National. He has never fallen and the only real downsides are that he tackles the National fences for the first time and he will be without his usual jockey.

Chicago Grey is another former winner of the Cheltenham 4 miler and he was 8^th in the Scottish National a couple of years ago. In last year’s Grand National he was brought down by a faller at the 5^th fences so it is hard to say how he would have got on. A winner on his latest start he goes on any ground and is one to consider. Rare Bob was brought down at the same fence last season. He is a grade 1 winner and has run well on his most recent starts at Fairyhouse and Naas. He was 4^th in the 2009 Irish National. His best form has been on soft ground. Harry the Viking is not a forlorn hope. He was runner up to Teaforthree in the 4 miler at Cheltenham last season. He has run quite well this season in big races at Newbury and Cheltenham. Balthazar King has b een running successfully in cross country races. The drying ground will play to his strengths.

Of the remainder Quiscover Fontaine was 4^th in the 2011 Irish National while Auroras Encore was runner up in the Scottish National last season.

Best from this section Teaforthree and Rare Bob.

In conclusion – Cappa Bleu, Teaforthree and Imperial Commander are my tentative suggestions. I hope you find the winner.

 

Redcar

4.30 Wyldefire looks the type to do well now he is stepped up in trip. The stable are in form and the horse looks on a reasonable mark. The soft ground may be against him but he should go well.

 

1.20 Farlow handles soft ground and looks on a fair mark.

2.30 Jack Dexter will appreciate the ground and looks to be on an upward curve.

3.40 Space Ship could be the best of these. I am a little surprised to see him in a maiden as his handicap rating looks a workable one. Still he gets my vote to get the day off to a winning start.

Musselburgh

3.00 Hamish McGonigall does well over course and distance and should go well.

4.45 Hi There is a consistent sort who won twice last season.

 

Tomorrow sees the first Saturday of the new flat season – as long as the wintery weather relents.

Here are my thoughts on the Doncaster races.

1.30 Space Ship could be the best of these. I am a little surprised to see him in a maiden as his handicap rating looks a workable one. Still he gets my vote to get the day off to a winning start.

2.05 Farlow handles soft ground and looks on a fair mark.

2.40 Hi There is a consistent sort who won twice last season. At 16/1 he had an each way chance in an open race.

3.15 Jack Dexter will appreciate the ground and looks to be on an upward curve.

3.50 I don’t have a strong view about the Lincoln but my tentative suggestion would be Solar Deity each way.

Newbury selection

3.30 Handy Andy

 

Winners have been very hard to find this week. Let’s hope for better things on Friday.

1.30 Those at the head of the market should dominate this renewal. Our Conor and Rolling Star are both unbeaten. My slight preference is for Rolling Star who is a course and distance.

2.05 28 runners! Claret Cloak is lightly raced and won in March last season. The ground should suit and this one may be well handicapped. The stable has not had a winner this year though and that puts me off this one. It’s a Gimme was a good second to Raya Star at Ascot in early November and was on my short list. Heavy rain is forecast though and this horse would not want soft ground. Ifandbutwhynot has won 3 times this season including once at Cheltenham and the trainer is in good form.

Cotton Mill’s second at Newbury last time out looks good form while Olofi won the Racing Post Hurdle earlier this season and is proven both at the track and in big fields.

Cotton Mill, Olofi and Ifandbutwhynot are my main fancies.

2.40 Cloudy Copper, African Gold and Ballycasey form my short list.

3.20 Sir des Champs has been my long term fancy for the Gold Cup and with the Mullins team is such great from I will stick with him. The loss of his regular jockey is a negative though.

4.00 Salsify looks a worthy favourite.

4.40 Gevrey Chambertin and Toner D’Oudairies are two I like.

5.15 Kid Cassidy is the selection with Rody and Petit Robin others to note.

 

1.30 Dynaste has the best form on show and is the selection. Captain Conan looks the main danger.

2.05 Sam Winner is the obvious choice and will be hard to beat. His course form is solid and trainer Paul Nicholls rates him as one of his main hopes at the Festival. He is a short price though. In looking for value Captain Sunshine is worth considering. He is capable on his day and has course form but the stable are yet to saddle a winner in 2013 which is a concern. Another to consider at a bigger price is Ely Brown who has won at Aintree and Warwick this season. For my selection though I have gone for Close House. He was a winner at Wincanton last time out and has run well at Cheltenham on both his previous visits. As a saver I think Ballybough Pat looks worth each-way support at around 16/1.

2.40 First Lieutenant has an excellent Cheltenham record and has been running consistently this season in Grade 1 company. I expect him to go well. The other one I like is Champion Court who has also shown a liking for the track.

3.20 Paul Nicholls is keen on the chances of Wonderful Charm. He has a fair bit to find on ratings but may be capable of improvement. Get me out of here has been runner up 3 times at the Festival but will need good ground to be seen at his best. Peddler’s Cross is the other one I like. He was runner up in the Champion Hurdle to Hurricane Fly two years ago.

4.00 AS long as the ground isn’t riding too soft I would fancy Hunt Ball to return to form.

4.40 Alfie Sherrin and Super Duty are my two against the field.

5.15 My selection is Arabella Boy.

 

1.30 Rival D’Estruval

2.05 Ponte Alexandre and Tarquin du Seuil

2.40 Boston Bob and Unioniste

4.00 Pendra

4.40 Pistol

5.15 Regal Encore

 

Cheltenham Tuesday

1.30 Favourites have a poor record in this race in recent years so it may be worth looking at some of the alternatives here. Former festival bumper winner Champagne Fever won a Grade 1 at Leopardstown last time out. The ground is likely to suit him and his stamina should be an asset in a strongly run race. Un Atout lacks experience but he is unbeaten and may well be open to plenty of improvement. The ground will not be a problem. Jezki beat Champagne Fever at Fairyhouse in December and is another for the short list.

My idea of the first 3 is Champagne Fever, Un Atout, Jezki in that order.

2.05 It is hard to get away from short priced favourite Simonsig and he is my selection.

2.40 Loch Ba looks an improver. He has won two of his last 3 starts and handles any ground. He is the selection with Fruity O’Rooney and Our Mick others to consider.

3.20 Rock on Ruby and Binocular are my two each way selections.

4.00 I will go for Arabella Boy in this. Both trainer and Jockey have a good record in the race.

4.40 Quevega has a fantastic record in the race and should win again. Une Artiste looks next best.

5.15 Ohio Gold is consistent and handles soft ground. Shangani jumps well and is in terrific form. The Druid’s Nephew comes into the reckoning. He was only beaten a nose at Kempton in November and the form of that race has worked out well. Colour Squadron has been aimed at this race. He is the mount of AP McCoy but does tend to make a few jumping errors.

Ohio Gold, Shangani and The Druid’s Nephew are my main fancies.

Picture of Hardy Eustace is courtesy of the artist Sarah Aspinall.

 

Cheltenham Tuesday

1.30 Favourites have a poor record in this race in recent years so it may be worth looking at some of the alternatives here. Former festival bumper winner Champagne Fever won a Grade 1 at Leopardstown last time out. The ground is likely to suit him and his stamina should be an asset in a strongly run race. Un Atout lacks experience but he is unbeaten and may well be open to plenty of improvement. The ground will not be a problem. Jezki beat Champagne Fever at Fairyhouse in December and is another for the short list.

My idea of the first 3 is Champagne Fever, Un Atout, Jezki in that order.

2.05 It is hard to get away from short priced favourite Simonsig and he is my selection.

2.40 Loch Ba looks an improver. He has won two of his last 3 starts and handles any ground. He is the selection with Fruity O’Rooney and Our Mick others to consider.

3.20 Rock on Ruby and Binocular are my two each way selections.

4.00 I will go for Arabella Boy in this. Both trainer and Jockey have a good record in the race.

4.40 Quevega has a fantastic record in the race and should win again. Une Artiste looks next best.

5.15 Ohio Gold is consistent and handles soft ground. Shangani jumps well and is in terrific form. The Druid’s Nephew comes into the reckoning. He was only beaten a nose at Kempton in November and the form of that race has worked out well. Colour Squadron has been aimed at this race. He is the mount of AP McCoy but does tend to make a few jumping errors.

Ohio Gold, Shangani and The Druid’s Nephew are my main fancies.

Picture of Hardy Eustace is courtesy of the artist Sarah Aspinall.

 

The Imperial Cup at Sandown (3.15) is the main event tomorrow. Although he is a short enough price I do fancy Mr Mole for this. He looks potentially well treated off his current mark. At a bigger price course and distance winner Claret Cloak looks interesting.

My selections elsewhere are as follows.

Ayr 1.45 Shanen

4.00 Hollo Ladies (ew)

Chepstow 3.05 Samingarry