Author: Martin

The main meetings tomorrow once again come from Sandown and York.

At the Esher track the action gets under way at 1.50 with a very competitive 3 year old handicap over that tricky distance of 9 furlongs. The 3 that interest me most are Forte Dei Marmi, Dancourt and Ithbaat. Forte Dei Marmi got up on the line to nail Sandor at Goodwood after encountering all manner of traffic problems. Dancourt just found one too good for him on his handicap debut and was beaten a short head at Lingfield while Ithbaat disappointed on his handicap bow after winning a Yarmouth maiden. Forte Dei Marmi looked smart when winning at Goodwood and the 3rd has won since so he is the selection.

Bravo Echo looks well treated on a mark of 84 and he should go well in the 2.20. Looking at the 3.25 Adorn should come on for her 5^th in listed company at Haydock and her chance is very much respected but I just prefer Triple Aspect a course and distance winner whose only defeat so far came at the hands of Border Patrol who has since franked the form.

The two I considered for the 4.35 were Classically and All Guns Firing. Slight preference is for All Guns Firing who left the impression from his juvenile runs that there could be improvement as a 3 year old. A little give in the ground would probably help his chance.

At York the sprint handicap at 3.10 could go to Henry Candy’s Dark Mischief who has won 2 of his 4 career starts. There are 5 runners from my list to follow in the 3.45. Antinori, Sovereign Remedy, Union Island, Distant Memories and Goliath’s Boy all have claims but at the odds I will go with Distant Memories. He ran well when runner up to Opinion Poll last time out and although he has gone up 4 lbs for that there could be more to come from him.

In the 4.20 the unraced Tartan Trip looks the part on pedigree. By Selkirk the dam won over 5 furlongs as a 2 year old. He is related to the 8 times winner Border Music.

Catigo only raced once as a 2 year old but this well related filly is expected to improve significantly at 3 and looks interesting in the 4.55.

Today’s picture is by kind permission of the artist Karen Davies.

 

I will begin tonight’s preview at Sandown where Andrew Balding saddles Ben’s Dream in the 2.40. This one has not lived up to the promise he showed as a juvenile but a drop back to the minimum trip and the application of a tongue tie may make a difference.

Wintercast has run 3 races in his life so far all over a mile. He runs in the 10 furlong handicap tomorrow at 4.25 and as his full brother Birkside has won 14 races at distances between 10 and 14 furlongs you would have to hope that the step up in trip will benefit him. A danger may he Shamali who should strip fitter for his run behind Wintercast at the end of last month.

In the 4.55 I would expect Luca Cumani’s runner Nbhan to go well on his handicap debut while Bagber could be difficult to keep out of the frame.

Tomorrow at Chepstow Andrew Balding gives a debut run to Suffolk Punch in the 6.30. He is a half brother to 3 winners and the dam is a half sister to Far Lane who won the Magnet Cup at York and also won a Newmarket listed race. He is the only runner without previous experience though.

Favours Brave represents my list to follow in the 6.20 at Goodwood. He was a disappointment at Nottingham last time over this trip and would need to improve on that to figure here. He has come down 4 lbs in the weights however and it is possible that easier ground would help him.

Bennelong has been finishing strongly in his races without getting his head in front. He should go close in the 8.35 with George Baker on board.

At York Hawk Mountain looks to be suited by both trip and track and is my selection in the 3.25 and in the 4.35 I will go for the speedy recent Lingfield winner Lochstar.

Today’s pictures are by kind permission of the artist Katy Sodeau.

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Anyway, back to reality and at least we had a winner yesterday from the only selection, which was welcome as the previous few days had been none too successful.

There are plenty of meeting tomorrow so let’s see if we can extend the winning run to 2 days.

Starting at Newbury Apple Charlotte defends her unbeaten record in the 2.40. Henry Cecil’s filly has done well for us this season and I am certainly reluctant to desert her now. Her last win was at the expense of The Miniver Rose who went on to finish 5^th in the Oaks. Splashdown is the danger. She had Oaks runner up Midday behind her at Newmarket last season and is expected to come on for her recent 4^th at Goodwood. Apple Charlotte has looked a resolute individual though and will take some beating.

Hidden Brief was 4^th in the Cheshire Oaks so really ought to land the maiden at 3.15. Forecast odds of 8/13 look skinny enough though. The horse is unlikely to run if the ground is too firm.

At Haydock Park my selections are Darley Sun (6.50) and Aattash (7.20).

At Nottingham 25/1 looks a big price for Guesswork in the 2.00 while Michael Bell’s filly Piquante makes her handicap debut in the 4.45 and has an each way chance although it is a shame that there are only 15 runners.

At Yarmouth Hill of Miller is one to watch in the 2.20. Related to some decent winners he may need this run but I will be monitoring his progress with interest later in the season.

Maverin is starting to look a bit exposed although the drop back in trip may help his cause in the 3.25. He has an each way chance. In the 5.05 I am hoping that Venture Capitalist can upset the likely odds on favourite.

My thanks to Lisa Miller fro the painting of the parade ring at Newbury and to Sarah Clegg for the photo of Haydock Park.

 

My only selection tomorrow is Espiritu in the 4.30 at Beverley.

The last few days have yielded some degree of success with winning tips for both the Oaks and the Derby with Seeking the Buck and Roman Republic also coming up trumps in handicaps.

I will cover Monday and Tuesday tonight.

At Folkestone tomorrow it might be worth having a look at Barter in the 4.45. She is related to some smart types and may be better than she has shown so far. Thus will be her third run so she will qualify for handicaps from tomorrow and may be worth considering in that sphere.

Mr Crystal is a horse I have followed with some success in the past. He runs tomorrow in the Pontefract 7.20. He has plenty of weight but stays really well, is a course winner and relishes firm ground.

In the sprint at 9.20 both Charles Parnell and Dig Deep are well handicapped if things drop right for them.

At Chester on Tuesday Wigan Lane should be all the better for his debut run when 6^th at Redcar. He runs in the 6.45.

Kammaan represents my list to follow in the Redcar 4.45. A beaten favourite on his last couple of starts he doesn’t look one to rely on. Sir Royal on the other hand is entitled to go close in the 5.45 on the strength of his 2^nd last time out at Ayr although he has been raised a couple of pounds for that run.

My best chance of a winner may come at Salisbury. Imperial Warrior and Flashy Lover should both be better for their respective debut runs and should go well in the 1.40. Imperial Warrior is a half brother to the sprinter Wyatt Earp while Flashy Lover is related to Flashy Wings who was a smart 2 year old a few years ago.

Burma Rock showed enough promise in 3 runs as a juvenile to suggest that he could pick up a handicap or two this season. He runs in the 3.20 and is trained by Luca Cumani.

Lastly my two against the field in the 3.55 are Cascata and course and distance winner Aromatic.

It has been teeming with rain all day here in the Peak District so I have included a couple of pictures from the national hunt season as that seemed more in keeping with the weather!  The pictures, by the artist Sarah Clegg, are of Binocular and Denman. 

Take care

Having successfully tipped the Oaks winner can we do the double with the Derby tomorrow? After a good deal of deliberation and a few changes of mind I have decided to go for Sea the Stars who has the proven class, if not quite the certain stamina. I will take Gan Amhras and Black Bear Island to complete the 1-2-3.

I started with a short list of 3 for the 1.25. Goliath’s Boy was badly hampered when last of 8 at Chester but was a runaway winner of a Catterick maiden last season before finishing 4^th in a listed race in France. London Bridge was runner up to Monitor Closely on his debut as a 2 year old. He has only had 3 starts and got off the mark at Newmarket on fast ground. He makes his handicap debut here and a mark of 82 may underestimate his ability. Union Island is yet to finish out of the first 3 in his 6 career starts. His most recent effort was when 2^nd in a competitive handicap at York. I have a lot of respect for Union Island who looks sure to run well but my selection has to be London Bridge who could well be better than his current rating.

Spacious only won once last season but was runner up in the 1,000 Guineas and 4^th in the Coronation Stakes. Four year olds have a good recent record in the 2.25 and Spacious has the class to maintain that trend. Sirens Gift and Crimson Fern are my each way suggestions for the “Dash” at 3.00.

The 4.30 is an open race where Red Kestrel is my “sporting” selection. He was 7^th last time over a trip short of his best and has been dropped 3 lbs by the assessor since. The 12 furlongs tomorrow should play more to his strengths.

Dandy Nicholls has a strong hand in the 5.05 with 7 runners. It is never easy to “pick” from a Nicholls mass entry. Cape Vale has a race in him at some stage and it would not surprise me if he came good here but for my selection I am going for Something who won a Kempton handicap in April and may still be ahead of the handicapper.

In the opener at Doncaster I like the look of Errigal Lad who looked a sprinter on the upgrade when 2^nd at Newcastle last week. Mark Johnston’s horses are generally running well and he can land the 2.35 at Doncaster with Roman Republic. This son of Cape Cross has only had 2 runs and is open to plenty of improvement.

We have had plenty of success with the ultra tough Archer’s Road and I am going to stick with Mick Channon’s 2 year old in the 2.20 at Musselburgh. In the 2.50 there are 3 runners from my list to follow and they all have a really good chance. Choosing between Alanbrooke, King’s Destiny and Holyrood is very difficult. King’s Destiny was probably not suited by the track when a beaten favourite at Chester and I am going to give him the narrowest of edges over Alanbrooke who looks the main danger. Holyrood, a rare runner from his stable at this track wears a first time visor and any market support for him would be worth noting.

Hitchens represents my list to follow in the 3.20 but it is not a race I have a strong view on.

There is evening racing at both Lingfield and Newcastle where I will highlight a few unraced 2 year olds to look out for. In the Lingfield 6.50 Pellinore is a sister to the 2,000 Guineas winner Footstepsinthesand, while a daughter of that horse, Chachamaidee is one to look out for in the 7.20.

Opus Dei could run well at a big price in the Newcastle 6.40.

Today’s pictures are by kind permission of the artist Jo Stockdale.

Good luck

Tomorrow is Oaks day where Epsom stage the third of the English classics at 4.05. Commentators have said that this is not a vintage renewal but it is a fascinating contest nonetheless and not an easy puzzle to solve.

Rainbow View started a hot favourite for the 1,000 Guineas bet never looked like justifying her market position. The firm ground was given as the reason for her below par run at Newmarket and if you are prepared to draw a line through that performance then she comes into tomorrow’s race with every chance. She may well bounce back to her brilliant juvenile form and in many ways I hope she does as the sport needs its superstars. She does have question marks though as apart from having to bounce back from her last run she is not guaranteed to stay the Oaks trip. Others to consider include Midday, the Lingfield Trial winner and Sariska who won the Musidora. Both look sure to stay and could make this a stamina test which could find out any floors in Rainbow View’s ability to get the trip.

There has been money for the Sir Michael Stoute filly Phillipina. Although still a maiden she was finishing with some purpose when just failing to get up in the Cheshire Oaks. Rainbow View may well show a blistering turn of foot and make her rivals look one paced but I am going to stick with the guaranteed staying power of Sariska for my selection.

Plum Pudding may start favourite in the 2.10 but I am inclined to oppose him. Of his 7 career wins 6 have come over the Rowley mile while the most recent, at Warwick was in a conditions event and the form may not be reliable. Bencoolen is my selection. Third in the Thirsk Hunt Cup his trainer usually does well at this meeting.

The Coronation Cup at 2.45 looks an intriguing race. Expresso Star the Lincoln winner makes his chance at Group 1 level and it will be interesting to see how he gets on. The most reliable form line though looks to be the 2008 Arc and Youmzain (2^nd) and Ask (6^th) meet again. Youmzain looks the percentage call for all that he doesn’t have the best of strike rates.

I had high hopes for Charm School at the start of the season but he has disappointed thus far. I have decided to look elsewhere for the winner of the 3.25 and I like the look of Seeking The Buck. A winner at Newmarket last month he doesn’t have too many miles on the clock and there may be more improvement in him.

Nasri impressed me when runner up in a listed contest at Newmarket and looks the one they all have to beat in the 4.50. He is the selection but it might also be worth a second look at Mishrif who may have run out of stamina over further at Sandown last time.

Cloudy Start represents my list to follow in the 5.25 but recent form has not been encouraging.

There is a good evening card at Doncaster where I expect Block Party to go well in the 6.05. He makes his handicap bow and is the sort that his trainer excels with.

Turning to the 7.10 Margarita is a full sister to Soviet Song and is one to consider as is Almuktahem who is a half brother to Maraahel.

Danehillsundance is an interesting runner in the 7.40. He races off a mark of 77 and he has won 3 times off higher ratings including 89. He likes fast ground and looks worth considering.

Northside Prince has been steadily improving and should go well in the 8.45.

My only selection at Goodwood is Visite Royale in the 8.25.

Today’s pictures are courtesy of the artist Jane Dunn.

There is a distinct musical flavour to the 4.40 at Hamilton tomorrow. Tangerine Skies of course comes from the Beatles song;

“Picture yourself in a boat on a river,
With tangerine trees and marmalade skies.
Somebody calls you, you answer quite slowly,
A girl with kaleidoscope eyes.”

Ride a White Swan was the title of a T Rex hit and Mr Lu might well be a relative of Mr Wu who figured in a George Formby classic – “Oh Mr Wu, what shall I do ….” They don’t write songs like that anymore!

Well, For my selection I am going to ignore the musical connection as I quite fancy Atlantic Beach for this. An unexposed sort he was 3^rd at Haydock on his last start and should go close.

Amno Dancer has been the subject of some promising reports ahead of his debut in the Lingfield 2.50. He is not well drawn though so it may be best to adopt a watching brief this time with him.

I have been following Play to Win this season with a total lack of success. I have decided to give him a miss tomorrow in the Lingfield 4.50 – so he will probably win!

The most interesting racing comes from Sandown where the first race is a 2 year old maiden. Classic Colori is one that catches my eye on pedigree and comes from a stable that has first time out winners.

I will go with the in form Invincible Lad in the 6.45 while I give Bravo Echo a chance to redeem himself in the 7.15 after a poor showing on his reappearance at Doncaster when he was well down the field.

Twisted will probably be hard to be beat in the 8.25 where Bourne may be the main danger.

Picture by courtesy of the artist Sally Martin

There are a couple of old favourites in the line up for the sprint handicap at Ayr tomorrow (3.50). Bo McGinty has been a real fun horse for his connections over the years, winning 9 races and finishing in the frame on numerous occasions. He is owned by Paddy McGinty and Bo Turnbull, hence the name. He likes fast ground and has dropped down the weights so is not without a chance. Blazing Heights hasn’t won for ages but is ridiculously well handicapped on his best form and has a useful claimer on board taking some weight off. It might just be his turn to win.

Pedegral remains a maiden after 10 starts so is no world beater but he has shown some signs of ability. I see that he has his first outing for his new stable tomorrow in the 4.50 having moved from Richard Fahey to Jim Goldie. Sometimes a change of scene can revitalise a horse so you never know…

Luca Cumani can do no wrong at the moment and he saddles the ex Godolphin 3 year old Suba in the Nottingham 4.40. This one might be worth considering.

Bennelong was runner up on his last start over a mile at Lingfield. He has been dropped 4 lbs in the handicap which may enable him to go close in the Kempton 8.50.

A quiet day all in all though.

You get two for the price of one today as I need to preview Monday and Tuesday’s racing today. No time tomorrow night as it is my Italian evening class!

So how did my predictions go on Saturday? Well Main Aim was a well backed winner and Sweet Sonnet made a successful debut in unlikely fashion making up no end of ground in the final furlong. We have had some success of late – I am still recovering from having a 20/1 winner on Friday!

Anyway, there are numerous meetings over the next couple of days so without further ado…

I have had Carleton in my notebook for a while as I feel he is quite well handicapped. He put in a promising effort when 5^th at Windsor a couple of runs ago and he returns to that track tomorrow for the 7.25. He seems to act on any ground and if things drop right for him he should be there or thereabouts.

Reverence ran well for a long way at Haydock on Saturday in a race won by a horse formerly trained in Greece. Reverence ran respectably in 4^th but is probably not the force of a few years back when he was one of the top sprinters in Europe. His half sister Impressible runs at Carlisle tomorrow in the 4.15. Unlike Reverence she seems to prefer a quick surface and although she is 5 lbs higher than her last winning mark she should run well. Her jockey, David Allan is a bit of a sprinter himself having won a race for jockeys a little while back.

Roger Charlton sends Splendorinthegrass to Thirsk for the 7.10. This colt showed some promise in a couple of runs last season but was always expected top do better as a 3 year old. He is a full brother to Etlaala and Selective so the 7 furlongs trip should be OK and I think he will handle fast ground.

The oddly named Hey up Dad represents my list to follow in the 8.10. He has been a bit disappointing so far this season and I think I will keep a watching brief with him for the moment. His win last season came in a maiden at Ayr on heavy ground so conditions may not be in his favour tomorrow.

There is racing in Ireland on Monday at Listowel and Naas. I haven’t studied the two Irish cards in any detail but Pride Celebre caught my eye in the 5.40. She raced much too keenly when 5^th at Dundalk and if she settles better she could go close.

Moving on to Tuesday I rather like the name of one of the runners in the 6.50 at Folkestone – Guesswork – quite a lot of that is involved in trying to find the winner of a horse race! This 2 year old is actually not without a chance having finished 4^th first time out. She is related to the high class Court Masterpiece. At Ripon in the 4.00 High Office looks sure to go well after his 2^nd at Beverley recently.

My thanks to Katy Sodeau (racing at Windsor) and Ruth Buchanan (parade ring at Thirsk) for allowing me to use their paintings.  See links for more details on both artists.

That is about it for today. Next update Tuesday evening.