Starting with the 4.10 at Doncaster Fantasy Explorer may need the run and for my selection I am going with the unexposed Jonny Mudball.
At Hexham Garleton has come down to a mark where he should be competitive. He runs in the Hexham 4.25.
At Wincanton Triggerman looks a potential good thing in the 4.00.
At the start of the season I had Den of Iniquity down as a horse that could be followed blindly with a fair chance of a level stakes profit. Backing him through thick and thin was the plan but with form figures of FP over his last two starts things just got a little too thin for my confidence and I missed him today when he came in at 12/1. Such is racing I suppose.
Anyway, ever onwards and tomorrow sees the traditional start of the flat season at Doncaster with the feature race being the Lincoln Handicap. Until its closure in 1964 the race was staged at Lincoln racecourse hence the name. I don’t have a particularly strong view on the race. Past winner Smokey Oakey will handle the ground and is not badly handicapped but his middle draw in probably not ideal. Top weight Mia’s Boy is a course and distance winner in soft ground and would be my each way selection.
In the 2.00 The Osteopath has ground conditions in his favour and looks a sporting bet at 16/1.
At Bangor Nicky Henderson appears to have found Viking Rebel an easy opportunity in the 3.15.while in the 4.20 Lothian Falcon makes his first appearance for well over a year. He has gone well fresh before and he is quite tempting at big odds,
In the 2.50 at Kempton both Cairnsnmore and Dansili Dancer look reasonably handicapped and are worth a close look. The 4.00 is interesting as a couple of new sires have runners. Takeaway (Sleeping Indian) and Johnny Hancocks (Kodiac) are the pair to look out for.
Gala Evening has form figures of 1112 at Kempton and with Richard Hughes on board is of interest in the 5.40.
There is a good jumps card at Newbury where the two I like the look of in the 1.45 are Carole’s Legacy and Calusa Crystal. Carole’s Legacy is unbeaten in 3 starts over fences, was second over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival on her latest start and has a good record when ridden by Barry Geraghty. She will do for me as Calusa Crystal may not have her favoured ground.
Donald McCain has his string in very good form after a bit of a lull and his Alegralil could represent value in the 2.15.
In the bumper at 4.25 the newcomers Kid Cassidy and Easter Meteor are both well related and worth considering.
I like to follow the careers of certain horses. Back in 2003 I had some very encouraging reports about a Michael Bell 2 year old called Temple Place who duly won at 20/1 on his second start. Four years later, by now with Donald MCCain he came to my notice again when winning on the flat at Chester at 50/1 beating the likes of Stotsfold and Blythe Knight. He has changed stables again now and runs in the Stratford 4.05 where he is the complete outsider at 33/1. Will he win? Probably not, but then you never know!
My two selections at Navan tomorrow are Gagewell Flyer (2.50) and Rare Bob (5.05).
Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Jo Stockdale.
Be lucky.
So here are my top 10 flat horses of 2009.
10 – Delegator had been 5th in the Dewhurst in 2008 and started the new season well when landing the Craven Stakes. He was made favourite for the 2,000 Guineas and was only headed by Sea the Starts inside the final furlong and had to settle for the runners up spot. He made no show in the Irish Guineas at the Curragh when unsuited by the heavy ground but bounced back to form at Royal Ascot when only beaten a neck in the St James’ Palace stakes. Delegator produced a blistering display in the Celebration Mile at Goodwood on his first start for Godolphin. Frankie Dettori was forced to sit for a few strides before the gap appeared but once open he quickened up smartly.
He quickened away well to finish first past the post in the Goodwood Celebration Mile only to be later disqualified after failing a drugs test. He was a bit disappointing when 3rd of 4 in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth ll Stakes at Ascot and ended the season when 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Mile on turf at Santa Anita.
9 – Monitor Closely ran creditably all season despite only winning once. He was only beaten a head in the valuable Timeform Trophy at Newmarket before finishing 8th in a pretty strong 2,000 Guineas. He was 4th in the Dante and 3rd behind Glass Harmonium in the listed Hampton Court Stakes. He was then 5th of 9 in a Group 2 at York where he was the only 3 year old in the field. He was included in Timeform’s 50 to follow but many punters had probably given up on his by the time he won the Great Voltigeur at York at 28/1. Looking back this was a pretty generous price given his proximity to some class opposition in his previous starts. Not surprisingly perhaps he was supplemented to the St Leger but finished 3rd in a race where he probably didn’t quite get the trip.
8 – Aqlaam, a 5 year old started the season with only 3 previous runs, his career being seriously disrupted with injury problems. He earned his place on this list with wins in the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot and the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp, a Group 1.
7 – Borderlescott is one of the most popular flat horses in training, his success story made all the more romantic by the fact that he is trained at a small family run yard. He rarely runs a bad race and put in a number of sterling performances during 2009. He was 3rd to Amour Propre in Newmarket’s Palace House Stakes early in the season before chasing home Look Busy in the Temple Stakes in heavy ground at Haydock. Sandwiched between a 5th in the King’s Stand at Ascot and a 4th in the Audi Stakes at Goodwood was a win in listed company at Chester. The seven year old has done tremendously well for his small West Yorkshire yard.
6 – Twice Over posted some decent efforts early in the season, not least when 3rd to Virtual in the Lockinge, but he hit a real purple patch in the Autumn running up a memorable hat trick. Wins in a Conditions Stakes at Doncaster and a listed race at Goodwood clearly gave his confidence a real boost as he went on to land the Champion Stakes at Newmarket in October, a race he had finished 2nd in the previous season. He ran a fine race in defeat when 3rd in the Breeder’s Cup Classic at Santa Anita.
5 – Midday, like Twice Over is trained by Henry Cecil. She proved a most consistent filly finishing in the first 3 in all her 7 starts. After winning the Lingfield Oaks Trial she only went down in the Epsom Classic after a thrilling battle with Sariska. She was no match for that rival in testing conditions in the Irish Oaks but in August she won the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood beating Rainbow View proving that she is as good over 10 furlongs as she is over 12. She was a little below her best when 3rd in the Prix de L’Opera at Longchamp but ended the season in fine style winning the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf.
4 – Rip Van Winkle suffered a slight setback prior to the 2,000 Guineas but still finished 4th and the first of the O’Brien runners. He occupied the same finishing position in the Epsom Derby and dropped back to 10 furlongs he beat all bar Sea the Stars.
He deserved Group 1 success and duly got it with an impressive display back at a mile in the Sussex Stakes and also won the Queen Elizabeth ii Stakes at Ascot before disappointing in the Breeder’s Cup at Santa Anita.
3 – Sariska earned her place in the top 10 with wins in the Musidora at York and both the English and Irish Oaks. At Epsom she just got the better of Midday in a tight finish but at the Curragh she won in a canter, in one of the easiest classic victories I have ever seen. Back at York for the Yorkshire Oaks she had to settle for the runners up spot after just being worried out of it by the 4 year old Dar Re Mi. She ran a blinder on her last start when 3rd to Twice Over in the Champion Stakes.
2 – Conduit competed in handicaps before tackling Group company, with his first win coming in a heritage handicap at Epsom in June 2008. He enjoyed a successful campaign in 2009 winning the King George Vl and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot from his stable companions Tartan Bearer and Ask and went on to win the Breeder’s Cup Turf for the second year in a row. He also ran well in defeat a number of times, notably when 3rd in the Eclipse.
1 – Sea the Stars completed a perfect 3 year old campaign, winning 6 Group 1 races in 6 months, including 2 English Classic races and 1 French Classic race. His 3 year old record is puts him right up there with the all times greats, if not the best ever.
His first win came in the 2,000 Guineas where he pulled clear of his field to score by a length. Despite doubts about his stamina and a strong field, notably from Ballydoyle who fielded 6 of the 12 runners, Sea the Stars won the 2009 Epsom Derby beating the favourite Fame and Glory, and Masterofthehorse (making it a 1-2-3 to Ireland). Wins in the Eclipse and the Juddmonte International were followed by success back in Ireland in their Champion Stakes.
Some pundits expressed doubts about his ability to add the Arc to his tally of group 1 wins but he unleashed a devastating turn of foot to maintain his perfect record.
Selections for Thursday
Ayr 2.40 Noble Alan
Chepstow 4.35 Picture This
There seems to be a lot of rain about tonight and if it gets into the ground at Haydock I would give The Vicar a chance in the 3.50. He is a course winner on heavy ground and has come down to a fair mark. Although the trip looks on the short side for him Jass could also go well.
At Warwick in the 2.20 I fancy Pliny while William Hogarth is very much the form pick in the 3.30.
My only selection today won at 16/1.
Having got off the mark over fences at Taunton on his last start I am hoping that Vodka Brook can build on that success and go in again in the 3.15 at Exeter.
The 3.50 features four horses that I have been following this season. A case could be made for Sir Winston, Vamizi and Qualypso D’Allier but War Footing looks the safest option having been only narrowly beaten off the same handicap mark last time out.
3 wins and a second from 5 selections yesterday.
Tomorrow I suggest we keep an eye on Kilmackilloge who has a great record fresh and makes his first appearance of the season in the Kelso3.40.
Donald McCain continues on an upward curve since taking over from his Dad, the legendary Ginger, and the yard had a nice winner at Cheltenham with the very promising Peddler’s Cross. The stable have some fancied runners at Carlisle tomorrow, not least Cool Mission in the novice hurdle at 2.30. Cool Mission ran well in a couple of bumpers when with Alan Swinbank and got off the mark over hurdles last time out at Doncaster. He should go well.
If having letters after your name indicated status in a man or woman, it is certainly not the case for a racehorse and the UFU that precedes Lord Larsson on the race card does not inspire confidence in the beginner’s chase at 3.00. He has ability and if he can put in a clear round he has a chance.
Ernst Blofeld and Mirage Dore, a couple of horses I have been following clash in the 3.35 and there is little to choose between them on the ratings. I feel that the step up in trip might just give Ernst Blofeld the edge. Alan Swinbank runners in bumpers always command respect and he saddles Nuts N Bolts in the 5.15.
Latin America won a couple of bumpers at Fontwell last season and he returns to the Sussex track tomorrow for the 2.10 where he could run well at a working man’s price.
Today’s picture is courtesy of Emily Russell
The Cheltenham Festival once again provided some wonderful racing and drama aplenty. I can’t claim too many successes on the tipping front but I suspect that I am not alone in that respect. There were a few winners that I probably should have had. Menorah’s previous run put me off his chance while I deserted Copper Bleu, Great Endeavour and Pause and Clause having followed them all season. The value of previous Festival, or at least course form was evident on a number of occasions, not least in the case of Weapons Amnesty in the RSA Chase.
Kauto Star has been prone to the odd serious blunder throughout his career but in the past they have happened at the last fence with the race won. This time he made a serious mistake at a much earlier stage. I must admit I had my doubts about Imperial Commander’s stamina. He had though ran Kauto Star desperately close at Haydock and his form at Cheltenham has always been top notch.
The big race tomorrow is the Midlands National at Uttoxeter where conditions may not be as testing as in many previous years. The admirable Halcon Generlardais has a consistent record in the top handicap chases for stayers and has slipped down the weights a fair bit. The ground may not be soft enough for him though and the form of Alan King’s horses would also have to be a negative. A lot of the runners seem to need soft ground so I am inclined to go for Iris de Balme who acts on a sounder surface, stays well and looks reasonably handicapped.
With the start of the flat season just around the corner there is a decent all weather card at Lingfield where The Scorching Wind should go close in the 2.25.
Today’s picture of Imperial Commander and Kauto Star is courtesy of Kate Tann.
JCB Triumph Hurdle
I feel that Alaivan sets the standard here. Rated 110 on the flat he has won 2 of his 3 starts over hurdles, the last win by 17 lengths at Fairyhouse. All his form has been on soft or heavy ground which would be something of a concern. He looks the class horse in the race though and is the one they all have to beat. At a bigger price it might be worth a small each way interest in Westlin’ Winds.
Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle
5 Year olds have a good record in this race and the Paul Nicholls runner Tito Bustillo has to be respected. The Irish also do well in this and Noble Prince looks one for the short list. I am also keen of the Nicky Henderson pair of Bellvano and Eradicate.
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
The Irish have a very strong hand in this with Quel Esprit, Enterprise Park, The Hurl, Shinrock Paddy and Fionnegas all in with chances. Of the home team Restless Harry has been very consistent and should be well suited by both the track and the extra distance. Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Quel Esprit which is a pointer in itself and he would be one I would be very interested in along with Restless Harry. The Hurl looks over priced at 25/1 and has an each way chance.
Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase
So much has been written this season about Kauto Star, that there isn’t really any need on me to eulogise about him here. It is impossible to oppose him and he is my not very original selection. Cooldine and Tricky Trickster look the each way value. Imperial Commander is 5 from 9 at Cheltenham but I just have my doubts about his stamina over this distance.
Christie’s Foxhunter Steeple Chase
Baby Run and Roulez Cool look the safest best in this.
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle
I am sure that David Pipe would love to win this one and he relies on the talented by somewhat erratic Ashkazar. He is seriously well handicapped on his best from, Hadden Frost takes off a further 3 lbs and is well worth his claim and the horse handles the ground. The Nicky Henderson pair of Lord Generous and Peveril come into the equation as does Irish challenger On Borrowed Wings. Pause and Clause was 3rd in the Coral Cup last season and is worth considering. The other one I must mention is Clova Island who won last time out and comes from a stable in red hot form. Ashkazar will do for me.
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase
French Opera, Consigliere, Green Belt Elite, You’re the Top, Beggar’s Cap and Tataniano all make some appeal. You’re the Top will handle the ground as will Beggar’s Cap while Green Belt Elite is an excellent jumper and is an improving sort. Those 3 would be my short list.
Today’s pictures all feature former Gold Cup winners. In the order in which they appear they are Kicking King, (courtesy of the artist Sarah Aspinall), Kauto Star, Denman and Best Mate (all courtesy of the artist Lisa Miller).
ahorse 