Diary; October 12 2011

 

At Wetherby tomorrow Blenheim Brook should win the 5.00 although I don’t like backing odds on in a novice chase.

Meet the Critics impressed when winning at Newbury in March and with AP McCoy in the saddle looks a fair bet in the 3.55.

Sumbe has come down to a winnable mark and looks interesting in the Kempton 5.40.

Review of the flat season 2010

 

The 2010 flat season produced many notable performances but none to match the historic achievement of the French filly Goldikova. Apart from notching 2 wins during the season she broke 2 records along the way. Her win in the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp was her 11th Group 1 success beating the previous record by a European trained thoroughbred. She then went on to win the Breeder’s Cup Mile at Churchill Downs thereby becoming the first 3 time winner at the Breeder’s Cup.

If Goldikova was the horse of the year Workforce was not far behind. An emphatic winner of the Derby by 7 lengths in a course record time he went on to win the Arc. In between these wins he ran a stinker in the King George at Ascot, a race won in impressive style by his stable companion Harbinger. Harbinger’s win was all the more remarkable for the fact that he was giving 12 lbs to Workforce and also to the Irish Derby winner Cape Blanco. Although some questioned the reliability of the form Harbinger looked a super star on the day but sadly a severe injury put an end to his racing career and the eagerly awaited rematch with Workforce was never to take place.

Cape Blanco had beaten Workforce at the start of the season in the Dante at York and he completed a successful year by taking the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. Another to fly the flag for Ireland was Fame and Glory who won 4 times, 3 of them at the Curragh. Perhaps his biggest win though came in the Coronation Cup at Epsom beating the 2009 Oaks winner Sariska.

Henry Cecil continued his resurgence with early wins in the classic trials for Bullet Train at Lingfield and Aviate in the Musidora. Two of his brightest stars though were Manifest and Midday. The former lost nothing in defeat when runner up to Harbinger at Newbury and went on to win the Yorkshire Cup by 8 lengths. Midday had been beaten a head by Sariska in a thrilling finish in the 2009 Oaks and had to give best to her old rival again at York in May. The Henry Cecil filly then won the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood to set up a return match with her old rival in the Yorkshire Oaks. The eagerly awaiting clash failed to materialise though as Sariska refused to come out of the stalls and Midday ran out an impressive winner from the 2010 Oaks winner Snow Fairy. A win in the Prix Vermeille followed for Midday and she only narrowly failed to justify favouritism in the Breeder’s Cup Filly & Mare going down by a neck.

The season was not without its share of controversy. The Henry Cecil trained Jacqueline Quest, a 66/1 shot was first past the post in the 1,000 Guineas beating the French raider and favourite Special Duty by a nose. After a steward’s enquiry though the winner was disqualified and the placing reversed. Special Duty again finished second in the French Guineas but remarkably won her second classic in the steward’s room after the winner was disqualified.

Veteran trainer Richard Hannon had stated that Canford Cliffs is the best horse he has ever trained and the horse began the season as a leading fancy for the 2,000 Guineas. Some doubted his stamina over a mile and that view was reinforced when he was beaten over 7 furlongs in the Greenham. He was sent off a 12/1 shot at Newmarket and although a creditable 3rd most pundits expected to see him drop back to sprint distances in the future. He was to prove his critics wrong though as he notched up an impressive hat trick of Group 1 wins over a mile in the Irish Guineas, the St James Palace Stakes and the Sussex Stakes.

One of the first big handicaps of the season is always the Newbury Spring Cup over a mile. My main fancies for the race were the Roger Charlton pair of Brunston and Cityscape. My tip was for the latter and of course Brunston prevailed at 40/1! My faith in Cityscape was eventually rewarded though as he finished the campaign with wins in a listed contest at Haydock and the Group 3 Joel Stakes at Newmarket.

I did have my better moments as a tipster, notable with Evens and Odds. A 25/1 winner of the Steward’s Cup and my only selection at Glorious Goodwood. I also had a couple of nice winners from an unlikely source. David Pipe does not run many horses on the flat but when he does they are well worth noting. Mamlook gave me my second successive Chester Cup win running on gamely to hold on by a head at 7/1 in a driving finish. I stayed loyal to the Pipe team in the Ascot Stakes where Junior made all under an astute ride from Seb Sanders at 17/1. Not a bad little double. Junior wnet on to win at the Cheltenham Festival to add to his Royal Ascot victory. Quite an unusual double.

Luca Cumani is another trainer to follow in the big handicaps and his progressive Forte Dei Marmi notched up 3 wins during the season. His wins cane in the Zetland Gold Cup, the Sunderlands handicap at Sandown and a valuable race at Newbury.

From a personal point of view I enjoyed the exploits of Dandino as I own the horse (well, along with about 12,000 other Elite Racing Club members!) He won 4 times at odds of 2/1, 12/1, 17/2 and 7/1 so was pretty profitable to boot. His biggest win came in the King George V Stakes at Ascot and a narrow defeat in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood prompted connections to go for the St Leger where he was quietly fancied but could only finish 8th of 10.

Another to bridge the gap between handicaps and group races was Dangerous Midge. He won the Old Newton Cup at Haydock and took the Group 3 Arc Trial at Newbury. His finest hour came at Churchill Downs where, blinkered for the first time he won the Breeder’s Cup Turf under a fine ride from Frankie Dettori.

Richard Fahey enjoyed another successful season in the North. So much so that his stable jockey became the first northern based rider to win the jockey’s title since Kevin Darley 10 years earlier. Johannes gave the Fahey/Hannigam combo an 11/1 winner in a sprint handicap at York in May. This was the horse’s only win in 2010 from 9 starts and the only time that Hannigan rode him! High Office was a Fahey multiple winner with 3 victories during the season.

As usual Sir Mark Prescott placed his horses to good effect. He inevitably has multiple winners and notable in 2010 where Allannah Abu, Aestival and Comedy Act with 3 wins apiece.

Trainer Michael Jarvis announced his retirement due to ill health at the end of the season. His 3 year old Rainbow Peak proved a progressive sort winning the Wolverton Handicap at Royal Ascot and after chasing home Dangerous Midge in the Arc Trial he gained a Group 1 success in Milan. Jarvis looked to have another progressive sort in Business as Usual who won a 3 year old handicap at Newmarket but the horse was sold to race in Hong Kong

Northern trainer Michael Dods had a modest season but I had some joy following his Sweet Lightning, a winner at Chester (13/2) and York (14/1).

Ruth Carr does well with horses she acquires from other yards and San Cassiano was a case in point in 2010. After moving from Ralph Beckett’s stable San Cassiano proved a very profitable horse to follow winning a handicap at Ripon at 25/1 and following up at Newmarket at 15/2.

Precision Break went into my notebook after what I thought looked a promising 5th at Chester and I tipped him for the Mallard Stakes at Doncaster. Produced late by Jamie Spencer he came in at a rather tasty 20/1. Another horse that did well for me was the Andrew Balding trained Side Glance a winner at both Ascot and Chester both at 9/2. Another satisfying winning tip was Kingsfort at 10/1 in a listed race at Haydock at the end of October. The least fancied of the 3 Godolphin runners he quickened up well to lead inside the final furlong.

The speedy but oddly named Jonny Mudball ran consistently in sprints without always getting the rub of the green. Just nabbed on the line by Evens and Odds in the Steward’s Cup he finished second 3 times but did get his head in front when making all in fine style at Newcastle ion June. The second that day, Poet’s Place was a progressive type and landed a Haydock handicap before winning the Portland at Doncaster for trainer David Barron.

John Dunlop’s Harlestone Times finished the season well winning at Goodwood and Brighton in September at odds of 10/1 and 7/2.

Lady of the Desert won the Lowther Stakes as a two year old and was a leading fancy for the top mile races in 2010 but lacked the stamina and reverted to sprinting. A nervy type that had to be ponied to the start she was second in the Haydock Sprint Cup before winning the Diadem at Ascot and only a week later ran with great credit to finish 2nd in the Prix de L’Abbaye at Longchamp.

Distant Memories was a fairly obvious horse to follow as a 4 year old in 2010 as he had shown a marked liking for soft ground during his 2 and 3 year old campaigns. He ended up winning 2 of his 6 outings although the theory rather went out of the window when he won at York on good ground. Order was restored later in the season though when he won the Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor in the soft showing a very taking attitude.

Hawk Mountain, part owned by television presenter and journalist Nick Luck won a staying handicap at York under Jamie Spencer while Sour Mash was one of my more successful tips when landing a Newmarket maiden at 25/1.

One of my better contacts supplied me with a couple of “dark horses” that paid their way. Royal Trooper, trained by James Given won a couple of handicaps in September while Spoken proved most progressive for trainer Roger Charlton notching 3 wins in handicaps ridden by 3 different jockeys, Jimmy Fortune, Steve Drowne and Jim Crowley.

Mick Channon, who I used to watch from the terraces at The Dell continues to compete with the best trainers in the business and his Music Show landed the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket beating the consistent Spacious into second place.

Akmal took the Group 2 Henry ll Stakes at Sandown under a canny ride from Richard Hills, the jockey’s 5th win on this son of Selkirk. Chris Wall’s Wake Up Call ran up a three timer, all in handicaps at Yarmouth while Henry Cecil sent out Timepiece to win a couple of listed events.

King of Wands won twice for John Gosden. The second success coming in a listed race at Sandown persuaded connections to consider a hurdling career for the 4 year old.

Owner Kevin Kirkup has enjoyed plenty of success with the likes of The Osteopath and Osteopathic Remedy and his latest acquisitions Kaptain Kirkup and Fieldgunner Kirkup were both winners during the 2010 campaign.

I have just picked out a dozen two year olds that caught my eye during the season. Strong Suit, a colt trained by Richard Hannon won a fast ground Newbury maiden in May beating 6 subsequent winners in the process. He then justified favouritism in the Coventry Stakes despite encountering traffic problems. He was then placed in Grouyp company on his last two starts on Soft ground that probably doesn’t suit him.

Codemaster confirmed the promise shown when running green in second place at Salisbury when winning over 6 furlongs at Newmarket. He was then a fast finishing runner up in a valuable sales race at Redcar.

Temple Meads won 3 of his 5 starts and gave me the chance to make reference to him finishing like a train! His biggest win came in the Wetherby’s Super Sprint at Newbury (5/1) and he returned to the Berkshire track to take the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes. Another valuable sales race, the Tattersall’s Millions went to Fury, trained by William Haggas beating 26 rivals. He had earlier won a Newmarket maiden on his only other start in 2010.

I have had success in the past following juveniles trained by Peter Winkworth and this season I latched onto Tullius who more than paid his way winning twice at Lingfield, coming in at 25/1 on the first of these. For profitable horses to follow Liberty Cap takes some beating winning 2 of his 8 starts both at Newmarket and both at 20/1.

Orientalist, trained by Eve Johnson Houghton was the most prolific winner notching 4 victories all at different tracks and with 4 different pilots, messrs Fallon, Sanders, Aherne and Durcan. With wins at 12s and 10s this son of Haafhd was another money spinner to follow.

Honeymead, a daughter of Pivotal won on his racecourse debut at Carlisle ridden by the 2010 champion jockey Paul Hanniga. Her other success came in a highly competitive fillies nursery at HQ with Hayley Turner doing the steering this time. A nice 16/1 winner.

Byrony won 4 of her 8 starts 3 wins coming at my lucky track, Kempton Park. This daughter of Byron proved very tough winning off marks of 71, 78 and 82. Another with a 50% strike rate was Face the Problem with wins at Windsor, York and Thirsk while one of the more unlikely winners of the season was Red Presence who won a 3 runner race at 14/1 beating 2 rivals that were sent off at 4/7 and 15/8.

My favourite 2 year old of the 2010 season was the diminutive Marlinka. A real pocket rocket she set a blistering pace from the front, a tactic which enabled her to 3 wins in 2010, including a French Listed race and a fillies’ conditions race at Windsor when partnered by Steve Drowne. She was retired at the end of the season to join the Elite Racing Club’s breeding programme.

Diary: October 10 2011

 

Inler won at this time last season and wears a first time visor in the Salisbury 4.30.

Loxton Lad looks to have more potential than some of his rivals and is the selection in the 5.40 at Windsor.

At Yarmouth Bassett Road looks over priced in the 3.45.

Sunday update

 

Havingotascoobydo progressed over hurdles last season winning twice at Ludlow despite a tendency to pull. He is a former point to point winner and should be suited by fences where he may settle better.  He runs in the 2.50 at Ffos Las.

Diary: October 9 2011

 

Seal Rock started the season really well but his form has tailed off alarmingly. At his best he would be worth considering in the Goodwood 2.35 tomorrow but he would be a risky selection. The same applies to another horse I have been following this season, Watch Amigo who runs in the 4.45 and is another without recent form to commend him. For my best bet at Goodwood I have chosen Aazif in the 4.10 who has a staying pedigree and should be suited by the trip.

the_mile_start_goodwood

At Ffos Las Minell For Party is well thought of by connections and is my tip for the bumper at 5.30.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Sarah Aspinall.

Diary: October 8 2011

 

The big handicap tomorrow is the Cesarewitch, the 3.50 at Newmarket. There are plenty in with chances. I have been following Ashbrittle this season but he has been disappointing. He won at this time of year last season and a return to form couldn’t be ruled out. Irish Raider Buy Back Bob may well have been laid out for this by his shrewd trainer. 3rd over hurdles at Cork in August he hung badly when down the field in a handicap on the flat at Gowran Park last time. An interesting runner.

Course and distance winner Bernie the Bolt is another I like. He has been off the course for over a year but if fully fit would have solid claims. Lastly Big Occasion, trained by David Pipe must be on any shortlist. A winner at Tipperary and The Curragh for his previous trainer he is very lightly raced and could well be better than his handicap mark. Another to consider is Keys who has won his last two races, stays and is certainly on the upgrade.

I am going to select 3 horses for this, all at big prices. Berrnie the Bolt 20/1, Buy Back Bob 16/1 and Big Occasion 33/1.

Elsewhere on the Newmarket card Strong Suit (2.05) and King Torus (5.35) are my main fancies.

katy york

My best bet at York is Internationaldebut in the sprint at 4.05. He has already won 3 on the bounce and there may well be further improvement to come. Another to consider is Oceanway in the 2.50.

There are only 4 runners in the 4.10 at Chepstow but it looks a very interesting contest. Former Cheltenham Champion Bumper winner Cue Card makes his chase debut on the back of some classy hurdles form. Silviniaco Conti won twice in Grade 2 hurdle races last season and is another with great expectation for a career over fences. This is not really a betting proposition but I would just prefer the Paul Nicholls trained runner.

Reve de Sivola didn’t quite live up to expectations over fences last season and was often let down by some untidy jumping. He has plenty of ability though and is worth sticking with. He runs in the 5.50.

Picture courtesy of the artist Katy Sodeau.

Diary: October 7 2011

 

Thursday’s selection showed a profit thanks to Purple ‘n Gold a winner at Wolverhampton at 3/1. Shallow Bay was beaten into second place over the jumps.

The flat racing on Friday comes from York where the card looks tricky enough. Prime Exhibit doesn’t win very often but is potentially quite well treated in the York 3.05. Ground conditions will suit and he has an each way chance. He is yet to win over a mile but as horses get older their stamina can improve. He is a tentative choice on a difficult day at York.

Things look a bit more promising over the jumps at Carlisle. Donald McCain runs Loden in the 2.10. A winner on the flat for Luca Cumani. Tony McCoy has the ride and the horse looks an interesting recruit to the jumping ranks.

work slide

My main hopes at Carlisle both come from Charlie Longsden’s stable. In the 3.55 Time For Spring and Baseball Ted in the 4.30. Time For Spring has always looked a chaser in the making and with the stable in form he will hopefully go well.

Baseball Ted is a progressive type suited by a right handed track. Tom O’Brien rides and he has won 3 of his 7 rides on the horse.

A couple of others to consider over the jumps are Rival D’Estruval in the Carlisle 3.20 and King of the Night at Newtoon Abbot in the 3.30.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Alison Wilson

Good luck

Diary: October 6 2011

 

The only selection yesterday won at 2/1 ending a sequence of seconds.

There are a couple of interest today. On the flat Purple n’ Gold made a promising debut at Lingfield last month and should go well in the 6.20 at Wolverhampton.

Over the jumps David Pipe saddles a newcomer to his stable in Shallow Bay, in the 2.20 at Exeter. A winner on the flat when trained by Walter Swinburn he looks the sort to win races over hurdles.