Month: March 2011

 

The big day is upon us and what a difficult day it looks. Here goes!

1.30 – Stan James Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

This race really revolves around Cue Card. An impressive winner of the bumper at last year’s festival he has won 2 out of 3 over hurdles including a course and distance win. His only defeat was when going down by 4.5 lengths to Champion Hurdle fancy Menorah at level weights. He has won 4 races so far and 2 of those were at Cheltenham, one in the Champion Bumper at last year’s festival. A few days ago I was asking myself if he was value for money but at a current price of 3/1 perhaps he is! The stable are in good form.

Recession Proof is a neat hurdler who won the Totesport Trophy at Newbury. He is improving handles any ground and has a tenacious attitude. I quite fancy him to run well here although there is now a question mark against him as his regular jockey is injured and can’t take the ride.

The Nicky Henderson trained Spirit Son is unbeaten and is the choice of jockey Barry Geraghty. This one has to be respected. Of the horses available at bigger prices both Dunraven Storm and Marsh Warbler are very well thought of by their respective handlers.

For my selection I am going for Cue Card. It wouldn’t surprise me if Recession Proof ran into a place but the last minute jockey change has just put me off putting him up as my selection.

2.05 – Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Grade 1)

I had this race fairly well sorted out as a 3 runner affair between Finian’s Rainbow, Ghizao and Medermit but the late inclusion of Captain Chris has given me a bit more to think about.

Finian’s Rainbow is unbeaten when racing over 3 miles, the form of his chase wins has worked out well, he has a good record when ridden by Barry Geraghty and he will act on the ground. He also showed that he handled the track when 5^th in the Neptune at the Festival last season. On the debit side his wins over fences have come in small fields – he has in fact only beaten 7 horses in total.

Medermit and Ghizao look the main dangers. Medermit will not fail through lack of determination and should be in the first 3 but there is an argument for favouring Ghizao on a line through a horse they have both met namely Captain Chris. Some feel that Ghizao prefers softer ground.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Captain Chris ran a big race. He has been the model of consistency finishing first or second in his last 8 races.

I am not too confident about this race but I I think that Finian’s Rainbow is a solid option. Captain Chris and the Irish Raider Realt Dubh look the each way value.

2.40 – Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

My short list for this race consists of Reve de Sivola, Sunnyhillboy and Great Endeavour. All 3 have solid Cheltenham Festival form. Reve de Sivola was runner up in the Neptune last year behind Peddler’s Cross while Great Endeavour beat Sunnyhillboy in the Byrne Group Plate. All 3 have also shown a liking for the track in other races. It would not surprise me if these 3 filled the first 3 places in the race and choosing between them is tough. I am going to give a slight edge to Sunnyhillboy with AP McCoy in the saddle who has a 50% strike rate when riding the horse. I would suggest a small saving bet on Reve de Sivola who may well be suited by this step up in trip which should help his jumping.

3.20 – Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)

The withdrawal of reigning champ Binocular has simplified things a little but it remains a very competitive renewal and a tricky puzzle for the punter.

Northern challenger Peddler’s Cross is a horse I have always liked. He is yet to taste defeat in any form of racing and won the Neptune at the festival last season. Perhaps the slight doubt about him here is that the trip may be just a little sharp for him and his front running style could make him a target for a fast finishing rival. Even so he might take some catching up that Cheltenham hill!

Menorah has plenty going for him and is yet to finish out of the first two. He has raced at Cheltenham 3 times and won them all including the Supreme Novices Hurdle last year. Irish Challenger Hurricane Fly is unbeaten this season and jockey Ruby Walsh has a 100% record on him. There are negatives though. He runs in England for the first time and not all horses cope well with the travelling. He is sometimes not the most fluent of hurdlers and mistakes in this company will find him out. His sire Montjeu tends to get slightly quirky individuals and he may not relish the climb to the finish against some very determined rivals. To me this looks to be between Menorah and Peddlers Cross. I like them both and simply cannot choose.

Of the rest Oscar Whisky has done nothing wrong and looks to be an improver. Thousand Stars has place claims at a bigger price.

4.00 – Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country Chase)

Irish trainer Enda Bolger has an amazing record in these cross country races and his horses are very much respected but they are set to carry big weights and I am tempted to look elsewhere this season.

Maljimar looks weighted to go well. Although he has fallen twice in his last 3 races they were both over the National fences at Aintree and can probably be ignored. The other one I like is Poker de Sivola trained by Ferdy Murphy whose horses seem to be running better now after a lengthy spell where they seemed out of sorts.

4.40 – David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 2)

Quevega has won this for the last two years and is the selection to complete the hat trick. Sparky May looks next best while Alegralil is a horse I have always liked and could claim a place at a big price.

5.15 – Centenary Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed)

Tullamore Dew was runner up in last season’s Coral Cup here and is yet to finish out of the first 2 over fences. He has plenty of weight to carry though, a comment that also applies to northern arider Premier Sagas, a winner of his last 2 races over fences.

Lower down the weights Divers and Definity are worth considering. The latter in particular ticks most of the right boxes. He jumps well, handles the ground and Ruby Walsh rides for trainer Paul Nicholls. He also stays further which is normally a positive at Cheltenham.

These 4 form my short list. All in all I will go with Tullamore Dew and Definity as my two against the field.

Good luck!

Neither of today’s selections actually ran which was frustrating. Tomorrow the main event is the Imperial Cup at Sandown. The David Pipe runners have to be respected in this given that the stable have won 5 of the last 10 renewals. I don’t have a really strong view on the race so I think I will stick with Via Gallilei who has done us a couple of favours already this season. You could try a small saver on Fiulin, a progressive type by the same sire as Via Gallilei. Not much else catches my eye at Sandown although Sarde might be worth a second look in the 2.25.

At Ayr the 4.00 looks to be a match between Locked Inthepocket and Stormin Exit. They are both course and distance winners but with Locked Inthepocket coming into the race on the back of a fall I will just favour Stormin Exit this time.

At Chepstow Requin, runner up on his chase debut at Exeter can go one better in the 5.15.

I have been featuring some former Cheltenham Festival heroes this week.  Today’s picture, courtesy of the artist Lisa Miller is of 3 times Gold Cup winner Best Mate.

 

Our good run continued today when the only selection The Cayterers jumped like the proverbial bunny to win at 9/1 at Wincanton.

Tomorrow Border Flora is worth a look in the Ayr 3.55. He was 2^nd at Carlisle in November and the winner has since won 3 times. He was then 3^rd at Ayr in January and the winner, the runner up and the 5^th home have all won since. He was pulled up on his last run but there may have been excuses for that as he was bumped into during the race. Border Flora has already run well at Ayr, the trip will suit and the trainer is adept at placing his horses in this type of race. The softer the ground the better.

The other horse I am going to put up today is a real speculative one. The Hollinwell looked a chaser of great potential at one time but has really lost his way having been pulled up in 3 of his last 4 races over obstacles (he was beaten 80 lengths in the other!) So why back him in the 5.05 at Ayr? Well he won a race on the flat at Southwell in December which was encouraging. He wears first time blinkers which might concentrate his mind over the fences and his trainer, hitherto as out of form as the horse, had a winner the other day.

With the Cheltenham Festival next week today’s picture, by the artist Lisa Miller, is of former Champion Hurdle winner Rooster Booster.

 

With Cheltenham just around the corner the racing pretty moderate stuff. My last selection, Tiptoeaway came in an 4/6 so I thought that we would try something a little more speculative for tomorrow.

The Cayterers is not an obvious selection for the Wincanton 2.30 as he hasn’t won over hurdles since Pontius was a pilot but he has been running better on the all weather lately and might just be well treated by the handicapper over hurdles. There is a reasonable chance that the track and going will suit him and his trainer is not in bad form.

Topless is yet to win a race but has been runner up no fewer than 10 times including today at Fontwell. She is down to run again at Folkestone in the 4.30. She has to win sometime!

 

Tim Easterby looks to have found a winning opportunity for Tiptoeaway in the Newcastle 4.20.

 

Today went well for us with winners at 16/1 and 6/1.

There are 4 jumps meetings in the UK tomorrow although in this pre Cheltenham period the quality does dip a little.

The Doncaster card gets under way with a handicap hurdle at 2.10. I had a bit of a fancy for Solway Sam in this at a big price. He won a couple of times in the summer and will like the drying ground. This race has tended to go to a fancied horse in the past with the highest priced winner in the last 7 renewals being 8/1. With this trend in mind my selection is Mac Aeda, a good looking, lightly raced individual who comes here on the back of a win, acts on the ground and gets the trip. I will be narked if Solway Sam wins though!

Scottish National winner Merigo looks a big price in the 3.15 while course and distance winner Drive Time will have conditions in his favour in the 3.50.

Chepstow form doesn’t always work out elsewhere but I am hoping that Sherwani Wolf, a recent winner at the Welsh track, can follow up at Newbury in the 1.55.

Paul Nicholls has a remarkable record in the 3.00 and is double handed with Ruby Walsh on Niche Market. The former Irish National winner may find this trip on the short side, a comment that applies to a number of his rivals. I am inclined to look for an outsider in this and Prince de Beauchene, Fine Parchment and Plein Pouvoir form my short list. Plein Pouvoir each way would be my tentative choice, although again I am relying on form from a win at Chepstow.

There are plenty in with chances in the 3.35. Made in Time is well thought of by trainer Rebecca Curtis and could be well treated off a mark of 1.22. Via Galilei is a course and distance winner and was only beaten a neck at Taunton last month. He has gone up the weights but could still be competitive. Sire Collonges may well have a bright future ahead of his over fences. He has been dropped 3 lbs after his run at Ascot and is one to consider. Zafranagar has dropped to a winnable mark and is a big price. At odds of around 8/1 Via Gallilei looks value.

Later on the Newbury card I fancy Rangitoto in the 4.10.

Somewhatinevitable is better than his form figures suggest and has each way claims in the Kempton 1.45.

The versatile Buck Mulligan was a comfortable winner at Wincanton in January and should go well in the 2.15 where Oasis Knight looks the danger.

Up at Kelso there are plenty of fancied horses and it looks a tricky race. Priceless Art has won 4 times in bumpers and may have found the ground too testing when a beaten favourite on his hurdles debut. He could be worth another chance in the 4.15 while Ballabriggs looks the likely winner of the 3.40 where Chief Dan George looks the danger.

With Cheltenham round the corner today’s picture, courtesy of Karen Davies, is former festival favourite Moscow Flyer.

 

At Doncaster tomorrow it might be worth giving Red Merlin one more chance on the basis that he has his favoured ground conditions. He runs in the 2.10.

Another that will be suited by the drying ground is Glencree in the 3.20. Things haven’t gone to plan for High Benefit since she won at Warwick last November but she is well thought of by her trainer and can bounce back to form in the 3.55.

I am going for a couple of outsiders each way at Newbury. Magic Prospect 2.20 and Meet the Critics in the 4.05.

 

Selection for Tuesday

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