Month: May 2010

Today had its pros and cons. Things got off to a good start at Chester and our only selection at Goodwood was a winner.

Day 3 at Chester starts with a 7.5 furlong handicap at 1.45. There are a few with chances including course and distance winner Celtic Sultan. He won at this meeting in 2008 off a mark of 100 and now races off 87 so is ridiculously well handicapped on his best form. Suruor and Webbow are others of interest. The former is having his first run of the season and he normally takes a run or two to get going . Webbow normally runs well in big field handicaps and has the plum number 1 stall. In his case though it might not be such an advantage as he is normally held up in his races. Dubai Dynamo is on my “handicap hints” list to follow on the back of his excellent run in the Thirsk Hunt Cup on Saturday. He comes from a stable in form but is drawn in the car park and it would be some effort if he is able to win from such a hopeless looking draw. Most of the horses that I would normally support have negatives that put me off and more in hope than anything else I am going to put up Extraterrestrial as my tip. He has plenty of weight but is useful on his day, is quite well drawn for a horse that does best coming off a strong pace, he has run well at Chester before and handles some cut in the ground.

In the 2.15 I am going to take a chance with a couple of outsiders in Rasmy and Tamaathul.

The 2.45 looks to be between Age of Aquarius and Harbinger. The latter has the benefit of a previous run and a winning one at that and he is a course winner which is always an important factor at Chester. In the 3.15 Star Rover and Archers Road would have chances based on their 2 year old form. Neither has won with an “S” in the going description however so we will need to keep an eye on the conditions between now and the race. Fastish ground could see either of these run well at decent prices.

Safina, whose dam was the brilliant Russian Rhythm runs in the 3.55 where she will take some beating. Her 4^th at Newmarket last month reads well in the context of this race and with only a couple of starts thus far she is open to plenty of improvement. In the 4.30 Lucky Numbers looks the percentage call. He comes here with good recent form, he handles the ground, has a very good draw and Ryan Moore is in the saddle.

The two that interest me most in the 5.05 are Embsay Crag and Jedi. The former has won 3 times at Chester winning twice. He has finished runner up on his last two starts and shapes as though this trip will suit. There may be more to come from Jedi. He will handle both track and ground and if Ryan Moore can overcome the outside draw he would be in with a shout.

Many of Mick Channon’s horses, unsurprisingly have names connected to football. He runs Alfraamsey in the 2.05 at Lingfield. The sire was Raam so it is quite a clever name. The horse has a chance as well!

At Nottingham the lightly raced Bourne and the well handicapped Hurlinghham catch the eye in the 4.10.

Good luck

Thanks to Mamlook in the Chester Cup we came away from Chester with a nice profit today.

Tomorrow’s card opens with a tricky handicap at 1.45. Cairnsmore was an impressive winner at Kempton back in January and a repeat of that form would make him an interesting contender. Another to consider is Last Three Minutes having has changed stables since his last run and is now with Sir Michael Stoute. He is not the easiest of rides as he has to be produced late but he has plenty of ability and should win races this season. Sweet Lightning is trained by Michael Dods whose horses have made a slow start to the season. However Osteopathic Remedy won the Thirsk Hunt Cup on Saturday and this may signal a return to form for the yard. Sweet Lightning ran some good races last season and was placed in 3 heritage handicaps. I do not have a very strong view on this race but I do like the chances of Last Three Minutes and Sweet Lightning.

Moving on to the 2.15 I am not convinced that the sharp turns at Chester will suit Kingdom of Fife so I will look elsewhere. Redwood has an obvious chance for Barry Hills on the strength of his narrow defeat by Glass Harmonium last moth. The course and distance winner Stotsfold could be his main danger.

Rocket Man comes from a stable with a good record in the Chester Vase (2.45). He basically could be anything and a significant market move for him would be worth noting. For my selection though I am going with Morana who was 5^th in the Craven and should be suited the extra distance here.

In the 3.15 my original fancies were Old Joe Mac and Burghley but they are both drawn badly so I think I will give this race a miss. Fastnet Storm is a horse to keep an eye on this season. He runs in the 5.05 where he has an each way chance. Regardless of the result tomorrow I will continue to keep tabs on him. Softer ground and a stiffer track might see him in a better light.

At Goodwood Total Command looks the one to be on in the 3.35 with Regal Park the probable danger.

Picture courtesy of the artist Jo Stockdale.

This season I have introduced a new feature, handicap hints, aimed at producing a list of horses to follow. Having watched the video of the Thirsk Hunt Cup a few times I have added Dubai Dynamo to the list, on the strength of his fast finishing 5^th in that race. He joins Mull of Killough, Roker Park, Hamish McGonagall, Cityscape and Hanoverian Baron.

Tomorrow sees the start of the May meeting at Chester where we may see some pointers for the Derby and the Oaks. My original selection for the Chester Cup (2.45) was going to be the progressive Bernie the Bolt but he has an unfavourable draw. I wouldn’t rule him out altogether but I am going to switch my allegiance to the David Pipe runner Mamlook. He is a very solid stayer and will handle the ground.

The 3.15 is a tricky sprint handicap. Dandy Nicholls always has to be respected in these races but his 2 runners are both drawn badly. Look Busy is drawn 1 but she is usually held up so in this instance the plum draw may not be such an advantage. Green Manalishi has a good record at Chester with form figures at the track of 20311100. He also has a good draw and is well handicapped. He is the one I fear most but for my selection I will stick with one from my list to follow, Hamish McGonagall. Although he has not won for some time he has come down the ratings as a result. He is a course and distance winner and has the benefit of a recent run when he shaped well in third at Beverley.

Longliner has been expensive to follow but I will give him one more chance in the 4.35 where I feel that Pekan Three may run well at a decent price.

Not much else on the card makes much appeal although I am tempted to go for the outsider Miss Miracle in the 2.15.

Good luck!

After death by a thousand losers on Saturday things were a little chirpier today with a number of winners highlighted in last night’s preview including 10/1 and 8/1 winners.

Selections for Monday:

Kempton 3.30 Udabaa; 5.00 Latansaa

Windsor 2.55 split stake between Centigrade and Invincible Soul.

Picture courtesy of the artist Katy Sodeau.

 

I had a really poor day on the tipping front with Jukebox Jury a lone hit amidst a plethora of misses!

On the basis that things can hardly get any worse here goes with a preview of Sunday’s action.

Starting at Newmarket I have a list of 4 probables for the handicap at 2.05. Jim Goldie sends down Hillview Boy from his Glasgow base. Although a 6 year old he does not have many miles on the clock, handles any ground and looks a major player. Chiberta King has a good record at this trip and although given no favours by the handicapper may still have scope for improvement. Tinaar is a lightly raced filly who has been in the first two in over 50% of her starts. She should be suited by Newmarket and is one for any shortlist. Dangerous Midge has been raised 11 lbs for his win at Doncaster last month but may well have further improvement in him, especially now that he tackles 12 furlongs for the first time. Dangerous Midge gets my selection with Tinaar the main danger.

Sariska is a top class filly but it might be worth taking her on, especially if the ground is riding on the quick side in the 2.40. Strawberrydaiquery comes from a stable that has won this race for the last 3 years and this filly has done nothing but improve so far. She could well come out on top here. Spacious should not be written off running over what might well be her optimum trip. The Sir Michael Stoute filly is the selection though.

Special Duty can make it a memorable weekend for the French in the 1,000 Guineas. There are plenty of others with chances and a case could be made for Music Show, Seta, Pipette, Rumoush and Pollenator. Music Show would be my reserve choice.

Jonny Mudball is a potential improver in the 3.55 and should strip fitter for his recent run at Doncaster. Of the others Hawkeyethenoo comes here on the back of a win and although he is yet to win at 6 furlongs the trip will not be a problem for him. Hitchens runs well fresh and is another to consider.

Principal Role looks the form pick in the 5.05, while in the 5.40 I am torn between London Stripe and Tajaarub.

Dungannon was an eye catching 5^th on his only start as a 2 year old and if he can carry that promise forward he should figure prominently in the Salisbury 1.50.

Dafeef won well at Newmarket on his second start as a juvenile. While not looking entirely straightforward he clearly has ability. He is my selection in the Salisbury 2.20. Sticking with the lightly raced 3 year olds Roger Charlton has an interesting runner with Spoken in the 3.30. A course winner over a mile last season he will have no trouble with the extra 2 furlongs here.

Up at Hamilton Hawk Mountain has quite a bit going for him in the 4.15.

My thanks to the artist Jane Dunn for today’s picture.

Good luck

 

The Newmarket Guineas meeting kicks off tomorrow with a competitive handicap at 1.55. Top weight Distant Memories has only been out of the first 2 twice in his 8 race career. He comes here on the back of a second at Pontefract and with Jamie Spencer riding he has to be given a live chance. The negative factor could be the ground as he appears to need going on the soft side. Significant rain would aid his chance. Shamali is a lightly raced 5 year old who was most progressive last season and could be better than handicap class. He seems to handle any going. Brunston won the Newbury Spring Cup last week and has gone up 5 lbs as a result. The extra furlong will suit him and he goes well on fast ground. My selection is Shamali with a saver on Distant Memories if there is an “S” in the going description or Brunston on quicker ground.

Jukebox Jury enjoys fast ground and looks the form pick in the 2.25.

In the 2,000 Guineas it is hard to oppose St Nicholas Abbey after his impressive display in the Racing Post Trophy. He could well be a class apart but his price certainly reflects that. Elusive Pimpernel was runner up to the O’Brien horse at Doncaster but has since won the Craven and it is hard to see him being out of the frame. Of those at bigger prices Fencing Master, Xtension and Awzaan look the pick. St Nicholas Abbey is the rather boring selection.

Total Gallery and Amour Propre do battle in the 3.40. Total Gallery may just be better over 6 furlongs and as long as the ground rides on the fast side I fancy Amour Propre to win this race for the second consecutive season.

Racy made a pleasing reappearance at Newmarket last month and looks competitive off a mark of 87 in the 4.15. The other one I really like in this is Swilly Ferry and this pair would be my two against the field. Anhar only ran twice last season but looked a nice prospect. He should be suited by fast ground and I am hoping for a big run form him in the 4.50.

I was impressed with Hynotized’s win at Kempton last month and he looks the type to stay one step ahead of the handicapper. He looks sure to go well in the 5.25. The other one I like is Balducci who won at Newmarket in April. These would be my two against the field.

My only selection at Goodwood is Mykingdomforahorse each way in the 2.15.

At Doncaster keep an eye on Dandarell in the 6.10. This gelding did enough in two runs as a juvenile to suggest that there are races to be won with him.

Citrus Star did little wrong last season and showed a good attitude in his races. An improving sort he could surprise the favourite in the 7.15. In the same race I would not discount Rodrigo de Torres.

Trainer James Given had a winner today with Dandino and I quiet like the chances of his Royal Trooper in the 8.20. Heavy rain is forecast for Doncaster and some give in the ground will suit this one.

Up at Thirsk Bosses Destination may find the trip on the short side in the 2.55 but he is one to watch out for when he gets a handicap rating.

Today’s picture is courtesy of the artist Lisa Miller.